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Australia Wildfires

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Australia Wildfires
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:21 pm

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This seems to be a far more plausible explanation to me than Global Warming Theology.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/60-000-o ... 00215.html
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by Annachie   » Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:12 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:This seems to be a far more plausible explanation to me than Global Warming Theology.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/60-000-o ... 00215.html


Especially if you don't actually know what you are talking about.

NSW RFS (New South Wales Rural Fire Department) have been saying for months that firstly the weather has been to iffy for fuel reduction burns, at least to the degree that they've wanted to do them, and secondly the NSW government (Conservative CC deniers) cut their funding for performing such burns*.

Add a drought, and record breaking temperatures, and it becomes obvious that it's far more than the article suggests.

Oh, and it's the conservative NSW government (and conservative Federal one too) that ignore the Koorie expertise. I believe other states make use of them.


From memory a couple of the fires are fuel reduction that escaped containment, a couple are back burns that escaped, and a few are arson. (There's always a few :( ) Some have been burning for months.

Black Friday was worse (6 fires within half a mile of my house, and I lived in an outer suburb of Melbourne at the time, but NSW is much, much, bigger.
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You are so going to die. :p ~~~~ runsforcelery
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by edgeworthy   » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:48 pm

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Whereas due to Climate Change Britain is somehow getting wetter! (Its basically been raining for a month)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-much-fl ... pcc-report
https://metro.co.uk/2019/08/29/climate- ... -10649822/
When the rest of the world is getting drier.
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:49 pm

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Annachie wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:This seems to be a far more plausible explanation to me than Global Warming Theology.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/60-000-o ... 00215.html


Especially if you don't actually know what you are talking about.

NSW RFS (New South Wales Rural Fire Department) have been saying for months that firstly the weather has been to iffy for fuel reduction burns, at least to the degree that they've wanted to do them, and secondly the NSW government (Conservative CC deniers) cut their funding for performing such burns*.

Add a drought, and record breaking temperatures, and it becomes obvious that it's far more than the article suggests.

Oh, and it's the conservative NSW government (and conservative Federal one too) that ignore the Koorie expertise. I believe other states make use of them.


From memory a couple of the fires are fuel reduction that escaped containment, a couple are back burns that escaped, and a few are arson. (There's always a few :( ) Some have been burning for months.

Black Friday was worse (6 fires within half a mile of my house, and I lived in an outer suburb of Melbourne at the time, but NSW is much, much, bigger.


Using fire for fuel reduction has to be a routine, long term strategy. Once you allow the fuel supplies to build up to excessive levels, attempting preventive burns becomes very dangerous and requires extreme care. This happened in the US when we became far to aggressive about preventing and suppressing forest fires. Smokey the Bear was the mascott. It became far worse when we enacted draconian restrictions on logging for the Spotted Owl. Then some shit heads came up with the brilliant idea that we could sequestor carbon by allowing forests to grow rather than harvest them. A drought and hot weather only makes the situation worse.

There is a park on the Oregon coast (Bob Straub Park IIRC) that commemorates a massive wildfire hundreds of years ago that burned most of the Willamete Valley, over the coast range and to the Ocean. The fire was so severe that the indigenous people had to take refuge on the island. This occurred in spite of the Native Americans more intelligent land management.

It is going to require decades of more intelligent forest management to redress the problem. We will not be able to reduce the fuel loads in time to prevent more conflagration.
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:53 pm

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edgeworthy wrote:Whereas due to Climate Change Britain is somehow getting wetter! (Its basically been raining for a month)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-much-fl ... pcc-report
https://metro.co.uk/2019/08/29/climate- ... -10649822/
When the rest of the world is getting drier.


Just for fun, add up the rainfall quantities and calculate the heat of vaporization per square meter. Then compare that to the measly 1 Watt per square meter of net forcing from climate change.
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by Annachie   » Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:01 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:It is going to require decades of more intelligent forest management to redress the problem. We will not be able to reduce the fuel loads in time to prevent more conflagration.


You kind of miss the point. It's been years since they've been able to perform fuel reduction burns DUE TO THE CHANGE IN WEATHER.

As a slight aside, look up Prof. David Bowman. (And they tell me that that is not your new favorite academic field :) )
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You are so going to die. :p ~~~~ runsforcelery
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
still not dead. :)
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by Daryl   » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:59 am

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They are still waiting to get in and check, but a big hazard reduction burn escaped and has burned a number of homes, including some fire fighter's homes. As their chief said it is getting more and more difficult to get the right windows of suitable conditions. Too dry and too hot at all times now.
We are building desalination plants and pipelines, but the situation is getting more desperate. The country is littered with huge dry holes that were once dams.
Australia's records show that our previous worst nationwide drought was in 1902, but this one is much worse.
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:26 am

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Daryl wrote:They are still waiting to get in and check, but a big hazard reduction burn escaped and has burned a number of homes, including some fire fighter's homes. As their chief said it is getting more and more difficult to get the right windows of suitable conditions. Too dry and too hot at all times now.
We are building desalination plants and pipelines, but the situation is getting more desperate. The country is littered with huge dry holes that were once dams.
Australia's records show that our previous worst nationwide drought was in 1902, but this one is much worse.


Australians have spent the last two centuries either exterminating the aborigines or sometimes "educating" the aborigines rather than learning from them. You've also spent more than a century engaging in overzealous fire suppression rather than implementing proscribed burns to reduce fuel loads. This seemed like a good idea until you entered your current draught (which the aboriginees would have told you is NOT unprecedented), so you are FUBARED. Stop complaining about "climate change" and start dealing with the reality that Australia's climate has always been variable and that droughts are common.
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by The E   » Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:42 pm

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Daryl: Uses historical evidence to show that the australian climate definitely has changed towards being drier and hotter

TFLY: Well, you could've avoided this if you hadn't built so many dams
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Re: Australia Wildfires
Post by Annachie   » Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:02 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Australians have spent the last two centuries either exterminating the aborigines or sometimes "educating" the aborigines rather than learning from them.


Both kind of right, and yet wrong as well. If the goal was extermination, well I point you to Tasmania.
Aye, the Christian right wingers spent years "educating" them, but we got that stopped decades ago. For the most part. There are still some, typically again the christian right wingers, who try it.

You've also spent more than a century engaging in overzealous fire suppression rather than implementing proscribed burns to reduce fuel loads.


Again, no. I'm 50 years old, and can't think of a single year when there wasn't fuel reduction burns, or for that matter, fuel reduction burns that didn't escape.

What you're thinking of, or rather whatever your source is thinking of, is that we used to run cattle in the high countries and national parks. They did a lot to reduce fuel, but they did a lot of damage too. Eventually, around 30 years ago but don't quote me, that sort of thing was banned.
Which probably in part led to the Ash Wednesday fires and a subsequent increase in fuel reduction burns. But that ones my opinion.

<snip> (which the aboriginees would have told you is NOT unprecedented), so you are FUBARED.

Stop complaining about "climate change" and start dealing with the reality that Australia's climate has always been variable and that droughts are common.


You'll find that the tribes are generally in favour of trying to stop climate change. That or thinking that it can't be stopped and prepping the tribes to survive it.


Which brings me to a point that you seem to be missing, not that I blame you for missing it.

The Christian right wing, who dominate our conservative Federal government, are the ones who deny climate change. Who are generally well paid for by the coal lobby. And are the ones who wont listen to the tribes like you, and I, say that they should when it comes to things like this.

Asides:
Local firey's have been complaining for years about the weather preventing fuel reduction burns. They also say there's not been anything like NSW before. (Granted, I'm in SW Victoria, but some of the guys have been up in NSW for weeks on and off)

Then again, one of my uncles still complains about not being able to graze in the high country. Farmers, who make up over 90% of our local CFA, just love to complain.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
You are so going to die. :p ~~~~ runsforcelery
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
still not dead. :)
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