Trump Implementing the Palin. doctrin

Dilandu wrote:

gcomeau wrote:
YES.

Because if you don't move those troops out of the way there IS NO freaking incursion. Turkey wasn't going in while US troops were in the line of fire, they went in only after Trump publicly announced he was moving the troops aside SO THAT TURKEY COULD ATTACK.

And why are you so sure that Turkey would have any problems with putting US troops in the line of fire?

Because that is EXACTLY what was keeping them the hell back right up until Trump moved them. So... reality makes me so sure of that.

And you don't seriously find the fact that the Russian military is less of a deterrent than the US military something anyone should be confused over do you?

gcomeau wrote:Because that is EXACTLY what was keeping them the hell back right up until Trump moved them. So... reality makes me so sure of that.

And you don't seriously find the fact that the Russian military is less of a deterrent than the US military something anyone should be confused over do you?

No. I think, that you overestimate the real value of the paper tigers.

As I reconstruct the things, Trump moved troops out when it became apparent that Turkey would move in anyway. I.e. when he became assured (rightly or wrongly, the other question) that the deterrence already failed, and the only options were A - to remove the troops, B - to stay them where they are and do nothing (because they could not affect the situation in any way), C - to start war with Turkey.

National Review has a few excellent articles on the Turkish incursion into Syria.

The Kurds were engaging in ethnic cleansing of their own:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/09/ ... ionalists/

Trump really did not have good options:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/10/ ... -in-syria/

Dilandu wrote:

gcomeau wrote:Because that is EXACTLY what was keeping them the hell back right up until Trump moved them. So... reality makes me so sure of that.

And you don't seriously find the fact that the Russian military is less of a deterrent than the US military something anyone should be confused over do you?

No. I think, that you overestimate the real value of the paper tigers.

As I reconstruct the things, Trump moved troops out when it became apparent that Turkey would move in anyway. I.e. when he became assured (rightly or wrongly, the other question) that the deterrence already failed, and the only options were A - to remove the troops, B - to stay them where they are and do nothing (because they could not affect the situation in any way), C - to start war with Turkey.

Exactly!

Which totally explains why he depicted the withdrawal as a pre-condition to Turkey invading.

Dilandu wrote:

gcomeau wrote:Because that is EXACTLY what was keeping them the hell back right up until Trump moved them. So... reality makes me so sure of that.

And you don't seriously find the fact that the Russian military is less of a deterrent than the US military something anyone should be confused over do you?

No. I think, that you overestimate the real value of the paper tigers.

One more time. Their presence there was already SUCCESSFULLY holding back a Turkish invasion this entire time. That is not an "estimation" of their value, that is their demonstrated in the real world value.

As I reconstruct the things, Trump moved troops out when it became apparent that Turkey would move in anyway.

If by "as you reconstruct things" you mean "according to this narrative I've just decided to make up".

In the meantime, Trump just pulled this gem out of his backside.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 0871571456

Big Orange Sociopathic Moron wrote:This is a great day for civilization. I am proud of the United States for sticking by me in following a necessary, but somewhat unconventional, path. People have been trying to make this “Deal” for many years. Millions of lives will be saved. Congratulations to ALL!

1. The United States did the exact opposite of sticking by him. Most of his own party is up in arms about this. He was just censured by a majority of Republicans in Congress FFS.

2. People have been trying to negotiate a 5 day pause in an invasion he caused to happen last week FOR MANY YEARS? How the freaking hell does that work?

3. The only people on earth who have been trying to get the outcome of that deal is the Turks, since Trump literally gave them everything they wanted in exchange for exactly nothing.

----They keep all the territory they've invaded.
----They get hit with no sanctions
----They get to order all the Kurds out of their homes and turn them into refugees to further their ethnic cleansing plan
----They get to resume their operation after taking a break for a few days.

And the Kurds get... to be driven out of their homes before they get attacked again in 5 days.

And the US gets... to keep running away and watching their allies get killed while Putin moves in and replaces them in their position of influence over the region.

That is literally the entire "deal" Trump is trying to sell as "A great day for civilization". "We're going to just let the Turks ethnically cleanse the region and do nothing about it, isn't that wonderful for civilization!?!?"

Surprise, the Kurds took about 15 seconds to reject the entire thing.

(And no, it wouldn't have saved millions of lives ffs)

gcomeau wrote:
One more time. Their presence there was already SUCCESSFULLY holding back a Turkish invasion this entire time. That is not an "estimation" of their value,

Sigh.

Should I remind you that correlation does not equal causation?

You seems extremely eager to attribute simple answers like "IT WAS TRUMP FAULT!!!" to a quite complex situations.

gcomeau wrote:And the US gets... to keep running away and watching their allies get killed while Putin moves in and replaces them in their position of influence over the region.

Yeah, it is pretty obvious, isn't it? You lose; we won. It was obvious for the last years, when it became apparent that with Russian help Assad successfully overwhelmed the "democratic" rebels, and established himself as a sole legitimate government of Syria. Get over it.

Your defeat was not a last-day event, it was coming for years. You have unreliable allies, impossible logistic situation, and no coherent strategy about what are you going to do in Syria. You wants a Kurdish state? Fine; then why didn't you declare that years ago, when it was possible? Ah, you feared that it would alienate both Turkey and Iraq? Well, newsflash: you already alienated them by your inability to decide and unwillingness to commit.

So yeah, the Russia won this fight. Simply because we:

A - have coherent, straightforward strategy: "Assad is the only legitimate leader, and we support him and only him".

B - have our logistic right (even if it means seriously stressing our navy).

C - were willing to commit significant resources & troops to our case.

Face it, gcomeau: we done it right for YEARS, while you were unable to invent anything more that "let's lie and falsely blame Syria for chemical attacks, so we could maintain chaos a bit more without the need to actually decide anything".

Dilandu wrote:Sigh.

Should I remind you that correlation does not equal causation?

Do grow up, please.
The US military, for months and years now, has been telling the Kurds that they do not need fortifications or preparations against an attack by the turkish military because they had a presence in the area and that the turks would not risk attacking US troops.

Then Trump decides, on an impulse, to withdraw the US troops. He makes a few bombastic threats to Erdogan, which are promptly discarded and ignored as the impotent blustering that they are.

This is causation, on a really basic level. This is not a case of several unrelated things happening that are only connected by temporal and geographical distance, this is Trump deciding to do something and Erdogan reacting to it.

Dilandu wrote:

gcomeau wrote:And the US gets... to keep running away and watching their allies get killed while Putin moves in and replaces them in their position of influence over the region.

Yeah, it is pretty obvious, isn't it? You lose; we won.

Hey TFLY? Pay REALLY close attention to Dilandu's response here.

You do know who "you" and "we" is when he speaks here right? That is "America lost, Russia won".

Keep that in mind when you're enthusiastically agreeing with his claims about how much he likes what Trump is doing. There's a reason he likes it. He is not exactly cheering for America here.

(Also, FYI Dilandu, I'm Canadian. I just feel sympathetic disgust for what Trump is doing to America as well as the general alarm any thinking citizen of the world who isn't a fan of the rise of dictatorships feels when they see the president of the United States actively aiding and abetting the spread of authoritarianism and degrading the very concept of the rule of law. I happen to currently live in the US, know a lot of Americans, and I like most of them. What is being done to the country right now is a tragedy.)

It was obvious for the last years, when it became apparent that with Russian help Assad successfully overwhelmed the "democratic" rebels, and established himself as a sole legitimate government of Syria. Get over it.

Your defeat was not a last-day event, it was coming for years.

Yes, this was definitely coming for years.

Specifically, since November 2016.

You have unreliable allies,

The NATO alliance has been extremely reliable, with the notable recent exception of the United states.

impossible logistic situation,

It was being handled quite adequately actually.

and no coherent strategy about what are you going to do in Syria.

No kidding. Trump and "coherent strategy" should never be spoken in the same statement except to point out they don't mix.