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Oh Canada, Oh Canada

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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:19 pm

TFLYTSNBN
Rear Admiral

Posts: 1486
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:58 am

The E wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:



Thank you.

Now what factor is responsible for the low homicide rates?
Paucity of guns?
Extreme credibility of deterence because police are four times as likely nationally (and ten times as likely compared to the deadliest cities in the US) to solve a homicide and make an arrest?


Where did you study criminology and how much did you pay for it? Because that's clearly money and time you wasted, seeing as how you don't know that the kinds of criminals deterred by prosecution statistics are the minority of all criminals. Murderers, in particular, always either think that they can get away with it regardless of how effective police is at finding them, or just don't care.

Germany, for example, has a murder rate of 1.2 per 100k inhabitants, and clearance rates for homicide in excess of 95%.
But this isn't really comparable with what's happening in Canada and the US, is it? To go back to the press release you badly cherry-picked your facts from, it makes a specific note that homicides involving gang violence or firearms are less likely to be solved quickly; The report states:
Between 1991 and 2017, 44% of gang-related homicides were solved compared to 90% of non-gang-related homicides. During this same period, 65% of firearm-related homicides were solved compared to 90% of homicides committed without the use of a firearm. When comparing gang-related homicides committed with a firearm compared to other methods used, 37% of those committed with a firearm were solved compared to 69% for those gang-related committed using another method. Although to a lesser degree, firearm-related homicides that were not gang-related continued to be less likely to be solved (86%) than those that were committed using another method (93%). Firearm-related homicides, overall, were more likely to be solved (93%) when the type of weapon used was an ordinary rifle or shotgun compared to either a fully automatic firearm, a sawed-off rifle or shotgun or a handgun (57%).


Note how clearance rates for homicides that are not gang related or were not committed using firearms are dramatically higher.
That, right there, is a strong argument for gun control to me. In countries that have strong gun control laws, not only is it less likely that an attacker will use a gun, it is also easier for law enforcement to bring attackers to justice after the fact.

The report also notes that rural areas have a drastically higher homicide rate than urban areas (by as much as 45%!). Bit of an interesting fact there, I think.


You have an uncanny ability to be gratutiously condescending and insulting when citing very specific data from which you draw generalized conclusions that are easily refuted by data from elsewhere.

The implosion in homicide clearance rates that occurred in the US back in the 1960s was NOT accompanied by a corresponding incease in the percentage of homicides that were committed with guns. There was an increase in the percentage of homicides that were not familial.

Any comparison of clearance rates between homicides committede with guns verses other weapons within the US is distored by the fact that 80% of homicides of young children (under 12) are not committed with guns. Homicides of young children is the one category of homicide that is almost always solved in the US. This is because the perpetrator is almost always mommy, mommy's boyfriend, step dad or purative daddy. These types of murders are generally no brainers. Interestingly; the homicide rate for young children is much higher in the US than other countries and age distributions between countries are very similar. Just to provoke your outrage, I would point out that African-American mommies, mommies' boyfriends, step fathers and putative daddies are far more likely to murder children than whites or Asians.

The idea that gun homicides are more difficult to solve would be ludicrous to most American detectives. Fist, feet, knives and ligatures do not leave behind definitive identifiers. Bullets recovered from victims and expended shell casings usually have very specific identifying characteristics including rifling that can be matched to a firearm. It is as if the perp had left their callibg card at the crime scene. The only exception is shotguns, particularly non repeating shotguns that do not eject empty shells at the scene. Given the fact that shotguns are more available in Europe than rifles or handguns, the lower clearance rate for homicides committed with guns is a consequence of the type of gun that is most commonly used?

As for rural verses urban homicide rates in America, rural Americans who generally own more guns than urban Americans commit homicide at a far lower rate than urban Americans. Given your own statistics, it can be deduced that rural Americans are far less likely to commit homicide than rural Canadians. Would you care to adress that issue? I can offer an explaination, but you will not like it.
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by The E   » Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:28 am

The E
Admiral

Posts: 2236
Joined: Tue May 07, 2013 12:28 pm
Location: Bielefeld, Germany

TFLYTSNBN wrote:You have an uncanny ability to be gratutiously condescending and insulting when citing very specific data from which you draw generalized conclusions that are easily refuted by data from elsewhere.


At least I do use data to draw conclusions, unlike you.

The implosion in homicide clearance rates that occurred in the US back in the 1960s was NOT accompanied by a corresponding incease in the percentage of homicides that were committed with guns. There was an increase in the percentage of homicides that were not familial.


Oh, so you do ackknowledge that your initial post in this thread was bullshit?

Unless, of course, there's some study you haven't shown and that I can't find that shows that there now exists a connection between clearance and homicide rates where none existed in the 1960s.

Any comparison of clearance rates between homicides committede with guns verses other weapons within the US is distored by the fact that 80% of homicides of young children (under 12) are not committed with guns.


That may be, but we're not talking about the US, are we. We were talking about Canada.

Homicides of young children is the one category of homicide that is almost always solved in the US. This is because the perpetrator is almost always mommy, mommy's boyfriend, step dad or purative daddy. These types of murders are generally no brainers. Interestingly; the homicide rate for young children is much higher in the US than other countries and age distributions between countries are very similar. Just to provoke your outrage, I would point out that African-American mommies, mommies' boyfriends, step fathers and putative daddies are far more likely to murder children than whites or Asians.


And this is relevant to clearance rates in Canada or your claims that they are "plummeting" and that homicide rates are "beginning to explode" how, exactly?

The idea that gun homicides are more difficult to solve would be ludicrous to most American detectives. Fist, feet, knives and ligatures do not leave behind definitive identifiers. Bullets recovered from victims and expended shell casings usually have very specific identifying characteristics including rifling that can be matched to a firearm. It is as if the perp had left their callibg card at the crime scene. The only exception is shotguns, particularly non repeating shotguns that do not eject empty shells at the scene. Given the fact that shotguns are more available in Europe than rifles or handguns, the lower clearance rate for homicides committed with guns is a consequence of the type of gun that is most commonly used?


The report says, quite clearly: "During this same period, 65% of firearm-related homicides were solved compared to 90% of homicides committed without the use of a firearm."

So, there seems to be a clear correlation between the weapons used and the ability of canadian police to "clear" a murder.
Hell, the report even states that crimes involving rifles or shotguns are more likely to be solved than those involving hand guns; At a guess, rifles and shotguns are more likely to be purchased legally and thus the offenders using them more likely to do so in situations that lend themselves to more straightforward investigative work.

As for rural verses urban homicide rates in America, rural Americans who generally own more guns than urban Americans commit homicide at a far lower rate than urban Americans. Given your own statistics, it can be deduced that rural Americans are far less likely to commit homicide than rural Canadians. Would you care to adress that issue? I can offer an explaination, but you will not like it.


I know how you would explain it. No need to reiterate, thank you.
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:35 pm

TFLYTSNBN
Rear Admiral

Posts: 1486
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:58 am

The E wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:You have an uncanny ability to be gratutiously condescending and insulting when citing very specific data from which you draw generalized conclusions that are easily refuted by data from elsewhere.


At least I do use data to draw conclusions, unlike you.

The implosion in homicide clearance rates that occurred in the US back in the 1960s was NOT accompanied by a corresponding incease in the percentage of homicides that were committed with guns. There was an increase in the percentage of homicides that were not familial.


Oh, so you do ackknowledge that your initial post in this thread was bullshit?

Unless, of course, there's some study you haven't shown and that I can't find that shows that there now exists a connection between clearance and homicide rates where none existed in the 1960s.

Any comparison of clearance rates between homicides committede with guns verses other weapons within the US is distored by the fact that 80% of homicides of young children (under 12) are not committed with guns.


That may be, but we're not talking about the US, are we. We were talking about Canada.

Homicides of young children is the one category of homicide that is almost always solved in the US. This is because the perpetrator is almost always mommy, mommy's boyfriend, step dad or purative daddy. These types of murders are generally no brainers. Interestingly; the homicide rate for young children is much higher in the US than other countries and age distributions between countries are very similar. Just to provoke your outrage, I would point out that African-American mommies, mommies' boyfriends, step fathers and putative daddies are far more likely to murder children than whites or Asians.


And this is relevant to clearance rates in Canada or your claims that they are "plummeting" and that homicide rates are "beginning to explode" how, exactly?

The idea that gun homicides are more difficult to solve would be ludicrous to most American detectives. Fist, feet, knives and ligatures do not leave behind definitive identifiers. Bullets recovered from victims and expended shell casings usually have very specific identifying characteristics including rifling that can be matched to a firearm. It is as if the perp had left their callibg card at the crime scene. The only exception is shotguns, particularly non repeating shotguns that do not eject empty shells at the scene. Given the fact that shotguns are more available in Europe than rifles or handguns, the lower clearance rate for homicides committed with guns is a consequence of the type of gun that is most commonly used?


The report says, quite clearly: "During this same period, 65% of firearm-related homicides were solved compared to 90% of homicides committed without the use of a firearm."

So, there seems to be a clear correlation between the weapons used and the ability of canadian police to "clear" a murder.
Hell, the report even states that crimes involving rifles or shotguns are more likely to be solved than those involving hand guns; At a guess, rifles and shotguns are more likely to be purchased legally and thus the offenders using them more likely to do so in situations that lend themselves to more straightforward investigative work.

As for rural verses urban homicide rates in America, rural Americans who generally own more guns than urban Americans commit homicide at a far lower rate than urban Americans. Given your own statistics, it can be deduced that rural Americans are far less likely to commit homicide than rural Canadians. Would you care to adress that issue? I can offer an explaination, but you will not like it.


I know how you would explain it. No need to reiterate, thank you.



You seem to be experiencing cognitive difficulties.

Are you certain that your English to German to English translator is working properely?
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