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Oh Canada, Oh Canada

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Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:16 am

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You are screwed!

Just found this:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85- ... 08-eng.htm


See table 8.

Canada's homicide clearance rates are imploding.
Canada's homicide rates are already beinning to explode.

Popping pop corn.
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by The E   » Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:12 am

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Is it "TFLY doesn't know how statistics work" time again? Because I believe it is TFLY doesn't know how statistics work time.


So, first, let's note that TFLY's statistics only cover about a decade of data, 2007 to 2017, with only the last two years covered in detail. It's interesting, isn't it; Almost as if there's a lot more data.

Let's look at a lot more data, then!
Specifically, the Crime severity index and weighted clearance rates, Canada, provinces, territories and Census Metropolitan Areas chart, which can be expanded to go back to 1998. Let's look specifically at the "Violent weighted clearance rate" index, which is a composite index showing clearance rates adjusted by severity of the crime, with homicides contributing more per instance than other forms of violent crime (there is no separate chart for homicides only).

That data shows that there was an absolute low back in 1998, with a clearance rate of only 55.66. Starting in 2010, the clearance rate was at or above 60; 2014 saw a high of 64.14. The rate went slightly down after that, dropping by 2% in 2015, increasing again by 1.2% in 2016, and dropping by 0.98% in 2016.

Now, I am not a statistician. But this pattern tells me one thing: That we're not looking at an "implosion" of clearance rates, but rather a plateauing; While that's obviously not exactly a good thing (you'd hope for more solved cases, obviously), I am hesitant to call it an unambiguously bad thing either, a plateauing rate certainly being preferable to a "plummeting" one.

The one thing I can definitely say though: Even though crime has been getting more violent recently, it is nowhere near as violent as it used to be. Going by these statistics, 1997 to 1998 was a much more violent and dangerous time than today.

But that was only one part of TFLY's bullshit!
The other part, lest we forget, was this statement:
Canada's homicide rates are already beinning to explode.


Really?

Hmm

I wonder, are there statistics available for this?

Why yes there are, what a surprise.

And what do we find, if we look at the same time slice of 1998 to 2017?

A homicide rate hovering around 1.8 per 100k population. Yes, there was a period from 2012 to 2014 where the rate was anomalously low (hovering at around 1.52), with the 2017 rate going back up to 1.8 in 2017.

Is that what "beginning to explode" looks like in your book, TFLY?
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:52 am

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The E wrote:Is it "TFLY doesn't know how statistics work" time again? Because I believe it is TFLY doesn't know how statistics work time.


So, first, let's note that TFLY's statistics only cover about a decade of data, 2007 to 2017, with only the last two years covered in detail. It's interesting, isn't it; Almost as if there's a lot more data.

Let's look at a lot more data, then!
Specifically, the Crime severity index and weighted clearance rates, Canada, provinces, territories and Census Metropolitan Areas chart, which can be expanded to go back to 1998. Let's look specifically at the "Violent weighted clearance rate" index, which is a composite index showing clearance rates adjusted by severity of the crime, with homicides contributing more per instance than other forms of violent crime (there is no separate chart for homicides only).

That data shows that there was an absolute low back in 1998, with a clearance rate of only 55.66. Starting in 2010, the clearance rate was at or above 60; 2014 saw a high of 64.14. The rate went slightly down after that, dropping by 2% in 2015, increasing again by 1.2% in 2016, and dropping by 0.98% in 2016.

Now, I am not a statistician. But this pattern tells me one thing: That we're not looking at an "implosion" of clearance rates, but rather a plateauing; While that's obviously not exactly a good thing (you'd hope for more solved cases, obviously), I am hesitant to call it an unambiguously bad thing either, a plateauing rate certainly being preferable to a "plummeting" one.

The one thing I can definitely say though: Even though crime has been getting more violent recently, it is nowhere near as violent as it used to be. Going by these statistics, 1997 to 1998 was a much more violent and dangerous time than today.

But that was only one part of TFLY's bullshit!
The other part, lest we forget, was this statement:
Canada's homicide rates are already beinning to explode.


Really?

Hmm

I wonder, are there statistics available for this?

Why yes there are, what a surprise.

And what do we find, if we look at the same time slice of 1998 to 2017?

A homicide rate hovering around 1.8 per 100k population. Yes, there was a period from 2012 to 2014 where the rate was anomalously low (hovering at around 1.52), with the 2017 rate going back up to 1.8 in 2017.

Is that what "beginning to explode" looks like in your book, TFLY?



Well Gooolllyyy! Surprise! Surprise!! Surprise!!! (Gomer Pyle immitation)

You finally seem to be beginning to understand the concept.

You also found some far more extensive data that I had not found.

Thank you for the data. It is relevant and it does give insight into how functional or dysfunctional law enforcement and the courts are. I will explore this site, but I would be much obliged if you could point me to longer term data on homicide clearance rates.

The only problem is that this weighted crime clearance rate includes crimes where the victims either apprehend the suspect themselves (shop keepers apprehending shop lifters) or the victims are still alive to provide information to the police that enables an arrest.

Homicide is somewhat different because the victim is dead. Except for the very rare instances where the dying victim writes the name of their murderer in their own blood during their last dying breaths, it is totally up to the police and the community to solve the murder. Homicide clearance rates then become a function of the competency and tenacity of the police as well as the willingness of the comminity to tolerate or confront crime.

I posted a video of a shooting at a beach in Portland Oregon recently to dramitize this last consideration. A man got murdered on a public beach by a large mob while at least one person recorded video the crime on their smartphone. In spite of the video and the large number of people at the scene, nobody didn't see nothing! (I leave it to the linguistic experts to decipher this all to frequent statements by witneses).

Now obviously, this murderous mob was African-American while the victim was not. I suspect that you Eurosnobs will argue that the deceased deserved to get murdered in righteous retribution for slavery and discrimination. The only problem for you Social Justice Warriors is that the victim was a member of one of the local Native American tribes.

The Portland Police Bureau actually has a new police chief who appears to be competent and diligent in stark contrast to her predecessors for the past three decades. (One of the more recent Keystone Cop was compelled to resign after a drunken varmit hunting expedition culminated in him accidentally shooting one of his fellow drunken hunters in the back.) Just FYI, the new police chief whom I actually respect is ironically named Danielle Outlaw. That is right, she is a woman! Chief Outlaw is also black. (Reminds me of the scene in Blazing Saddles when the townspeople of Rockridge realize that the Sheriff is a Near...and their WELCOME sign rolls itself up. The new Sheriff has to take himself hostage to escape being lynched). Chief Outlaw is cute to! Chief Outlaw to her credit is actually angry about this murder and is disgusted by the circumstances leading up to the murder and the unwillingness of the many witnesses to identify the shooter. Enough time has elapsed that the odds of the case being solved are grim, but I would not be surprised if it was solved.
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by The E   » Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:52 am

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:You finally seem to be beginning to understand the concept.


Which concept is that?

The one that you're really bad at finding data and, if you do, even worse at interpreting it?

You also found some far more extensive data that I had not found.


I used the same website you did!

Except I was more curious than you and was wondering what else I could find there while I was on-site, as it were.

The only problem is that this weighted crime clearance rate includes crimes where the victims either apprehend the suspect themselves (shop keepers apprehending shop lifters) or the victims are still alive to provide information to the police that enables an arrest.


Well.

Let's dig a little deeper and look at more data.
As our starting point, we will use this chart (Incident-based crime statistics, by detailed violations, Canada, provinces, territories and Census Metropolitan Areas).
By using the various filters, we can drill down into homicides specifically (not distinguishing here between Murder 1, Murder 2, Manslaughter and Infanticide).

Let us download the data and import it into trusty excel.
We can then do some basic math: 100 - (<Actual Number of incidents> - <total number of cleared incidents>)/(<Actual Number of incidents)/100) will give us the total clearance rates for homicides in a given year.

We can then see that Canada's clearance rates for homicides fluctuates wildly: It's generally above 70%, averaging out at 75.6% with a median of 76.2%. While 2016 and 2017 are outliers here (at 71 and 67% respectively; it should be noted that 2007 and 2008 are similar outliers in this regard), they alone do not a trend make in my estimation. The variability in the data set is just too high; it could be a start of a trend, it could just be a particularly bad set of years, it is impossible to tell at this point.


Homicide is somewhat different because the victim is dead. Except for the very rare instances where the dying victim writes the name of their murderer in their own blood during their last dying breaths, it is totally up to the police and the community to solve the murder. Homicide clearance rates then become a function of the competency and tenacity of the police as well as the willingness of the comminity to tolerate or confront crime.

I posted a video of a shooting at a beach in Portland Oregon recently to dramitize this last consideration. A man got murdered on a public beach by a large mob while at least one person recorded video the crime on their smartphone. In spite of the video and the large number of people at the scene, nobody didn't see nothing! (I leave it to the linguistic experts to decipher this all to frequent statements by witneses).

Now obviously, this murderous mob was African-American while the victim was not. I suspect that you Eurosnobs will argue that the deceased deserved to get murdered in righteous retribution for slavery and discrimination. The only problem for you Social Justice Warriors is that the victim was a member of one of the local Native American tribes.

The Portland Police Bureau actually has a new police chief who appears to be competent and diligent in stark contrast to her predecessors for the past three decades. (One of the more recent Keystone Cop was compelled to resign after a drunken varmit hunting expedition culminated in him accidentally shooting one of his fellow drunken hunters in the back.) Just FYI, the new police chief whom I actually respect is ironically named Danielle Outlaw. That is right, she is a woman! Chief Outlaw is also black. (Reminds me of the scene in Blazing Saddles when the townspeople of Rockridge realize that the Sheriff is a Near...and their WELCOME sign rolls itself up. The new Sheriff has to take himself hostage to escape being lynched). Chief Outlaw is cute to! Chief Outlaw to her credit is actually angry about this murder and is disgusted by the circumstances leading up to the murder and the unwillingness of the many witnesses to identify the shooter. Enough time has elapsed that the odds of the case being solved are grim, but I would not be surprised if it was solved.


And this is relevant to clearance rates in Canada or your claims that they are "plummeting" and that homicide rates are "beginning to explode" how, exactly?

You were misinterpreting data and making silly claims based on that misinterpretation. It would be nice if you could, for once, ackknowledge that you did.
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by jchilds   » Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:57 pm

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2016 and 2017? Hmmm...the Jordan decision (R v Jordan(2016)) was handed down on July 8, 2016, which had shorter term consequences that may be reflected in the statistics.
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by Daryl   » Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:01 pm

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This inspired me to look up Australia's stats.
Currently a murder rate of 1 per 100,000, compared to 4.88 per 100,000 in the US. A clearance rate of 87% (NZ has 91%), murder by gun is 13%.
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by Michael Everett   » Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:22 am

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Daryl wrote:This inspired me to look up Australia's stats.

Aren't most "I'm crazy so I'm gonna kill someone" types in Australia generally taken out by the wildlife before they can do damage?
After all, being crazy in Australia (where the only safe creatures are probably the sheep) is not a valid survival strategy. You need all your wits around you in that deathworld.

Heck, the native people (pre-settler) are so hardcore tough that according to their legends, they drove the Slendermen extinct! You don't get to be that badass in a place where everything isn't trying to kill you.
:lol:

-Edit - Canadians are fairly tough as well, probably due to the demonic beings sometimes called chicken-snakes, aka the Canada Goose.
Last edited by Michael Everett on Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by Daryl   » Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:24 am

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One of the weird contradictions of Australia is that while much of our wildlife is dangerous, few actually die from it.
I remember having a group of English relatives visiting and while entertaining them on my front veranda pointed out a passing snake. I explained that it was an Eastern Brown or alternatively called a Common Brown. How deadly? Australia has the top eight deadly snakes and it is number two, behind the Fierce Snake. Why do you call it the Common Brown? Because there are so many of them.
Michael Everett wrote:
Daryl wrote:This inspired me to look up Australia's stats.

Aren't most "I'm crazy so I'm gonna kill someone" types in Australia generally taken out by the wildlife before they can do damage?
After all, being crazy in Australia (where the only safe creatures are probably the sheep) is not a valid survival strategy. You need all your wits around you in that deathworld.

Heck, the native people (pre-settler) are so hardcore tough that according to their legends, they drove the Slendermen extinct! You don't get to be that badass in a place where everything isn't trying to kill you.
:lol:
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:22 am

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Daryl wrote:This inspired me to look up Australia's stats.
Currently a murder rate of 1 per 100,000, compared to 4.88 per 100,000 in the US. A clearance rate of 87% (NZ has 91%), murder by gun is 13%.



Thank you.

Now what factor is responsible for the low homicide rates?
Paucity of guns?
Extreme credibility of deterence because police are four times as likely nationally (and ten times as likely compared to the deadliest cities in the US) to solve a homicide and make an arrest?
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Re: Oh Canada, Oh Canada
Post by The E   » Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:58 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Daryl wrote:This inspired me to look up Australia's stats.
Currently a murder rate of 1 per 100,000, compared to 4.88 per 100,000 in the US. A clearance rate of 87% (NZ has 91%), murder by gun is 13%.



Thank you.

Now what factor is responsible for the low homicide rates?
Paucity of guns?
Extreme credibility of deterence because police are four times as likely nationally (and ten times as likely compared to the deadliest cities in the US) to solve a homicide and make an arrest?


Where did you study criminology and how much did you pay for it? Because that's clearly money and time you wasted, seeing as how you don't know that the kinds of criminals deterred by prosecution statistics are the minority of all criminals. Murderers, in particular, always either think that they can get away with it regardless of how effective police is at finding them, or just don't care.

Germany, for example, has a murder rate of 1.2 per 100k inhabitants, and clearance rates for homicide in excess of 95%.
But this isn't really comparable with what's happening in Canada and the US, is it? To go back to the press release you badly cherry-picked your facts from, it makes a specific note that homicides involving gang violence or firearms are less likely to be solved quickly; The report states:
Between 1991 and 2017, 44% of gang-related homicides were solved compared to 90% of non-gang-related homicides. During this same period, 65% of firearm-related homicides were solved compared to 90% of homicides committed without the use of a firearm. When comparing gang-related homicides committed with a firearm compared to other methods used, 37% of those committed with a firearm were solved compared to 69% for those gang-related committed using another method. Although to a lesser degree, firearm-related homicides that were not gang-related continued to be less likely to be solved (86%) than those that were committed using another method (93%). Firearm-related homicides, overall, were more likely to be solved (93%) when the type of weapon used was an ordinary rifle or shotgun compared to either a fully automatic firearm, a sawed-off rifle or shotgun or a handgun (57%).


Note how clearance rates for homicides that are not gang related or were not committed using firearms are dramatically higher.
That, right there, is a strong argument for gun control to me. In countries that have strong gun control laws, not only is it less likely that an attacker will use a gun, it is also easier for law enforcement to bring attackers to justice after the fact.

The report also notes that rural areas have a drastically higher homicide rate than urban areas (by as much as 45%!). Bit of an interesting fact there, I think.
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