The (Next) Persian Gulf War begins.

This inspired me to peruse THE ABSENT SUPERPOWER again.

This war is arriving a bit sooner than I expected. I am not certain that the US is suffeciently disconnected from the Middle East to sit it out. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are far more dependant on Persian Gulf oil than NATO "allies." India is dependant on Persian Gulf oil as well.

Predictions.

Trump will NOT invade Iran. He learned from observing Bush's Forever Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Iran is weeks rather than months or years from having functional nuclear weapons. I expect that the gas centrifuges are now working to transform low enriched Uranium reactor fuel into highly enriched fissile Uranium.

Saudi Arabia is no doubt calling Pakistan to take delivery of the nukes that they have prepaid.

The US does not currently have precision guided, low yield, earth pentrating warhead nukes that we had with the Pershing II (preferably with shaped nuclear charges) that could take out Iran's nuclear bunkers with near zero civilian casualities.

Will Trump intervene to destroy Iran's navy and air force?

Popping pop corn.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Trump will NOT invade Iran. He learned from observing Bush's Forever Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Counterpoint: Trump will try to make a case for war against Iran; even if Trump himself doesn't, National Security Advisor and noted fan of invading Iran John Bolton will.

(Always remember that Trump really doesn't have much of a policy besides "whatever Fox News says". If they decide that Iran is dangerous, then Trump will listen)

Iran is weeks rather than months or years from having functional nuclear weapons.

Unsourced statement. A more realistic estimate is on the order of 6 to 9 months (source). Sidenote: This is a situation that only exists because Trump decided to throw away the existing treaties with Iran.

Saudi Arabia is no doubt calling Pakistan to take delivery of the nukes that they have prepaid.

Did you read about that in a Clancy knockoff novel or something?

Cos it's not real.

Probability of recent events being American/Saudi false flag provocation - 75%.

Probability of them being Yemen rebels actions - 20%

Probability of them being totally senseless Iranian actions - 5%

Conclusion: the only nations who would benefit from such attacks against tankers are the USA & USA allies. There is zero reasons for Iran to do anything like that, especially now. Damage to several tankers gave Iran nothing. The political consequences would far outweigh any gain.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Trump will NOT invade Iran. He learned from observing Bush's Forever Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This is probably correct observation. Another long war just before the election is NOT what US population would like.

Iran is weeks rather than months or years from having functional nuclear weapons.

Unsubstantiated.

I expect that the gas centrifuges are now working to transform low enriched Uranium reactor fuel into highly enriched fissile Uranium.

Possible, but there are no proofs for that.

Saudi Arabia is no doubt calling Pakistan to take delivery of the nukes that they have prepaid.

Doubtful. Pakistan have enough problems with India to gave his warheads away.

The US does not currently have precision guided, low yield, earth pentrating warhead nukes that we had with the Pershing II (preferably with shaped nuclear charges) that could take out Iran's nuclear bunkers with near zero civilian casualities.

And what happens with B61 Mod 11? This version was specifically designed as highly-precision nuclear penetrator, with hardened casting. It could be delivered by any stealth bomber with enough precision to attack hardened structures.

Dilandu wrote:Probability of recent events being American/Saudi false flag provocation - 75%.

Probability of them being Yemen rebels actions - 20%

Probability of them being totally senseless Iranian actions - 5%

Conclusion: the only nations who would benefit from such attacks against tankers are the USA & USA allies. There is zero reasons for Iran to do anything like that, especially now. Damage to several tankers gave Iran nothing. The political consequences would far outweigh any gain.

I disagree with your conclusion. Those who have the most to gain are actually the Huthi-rebels, they really hate Iran and the added bonus of attacking ships in Iran's territorial waters is that it also put pressure on Saudi and USA to do something. For the Huhti's it's a win/win situation since it allows Saudi and USA to easily blame Iran, especially considering the last years political posturing.

The E wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Trump will NOT invade Iran. He learned from observing Bush's Forever Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Counterpoint: Trump will try to make a case for war against Iran; even if Trump himself doesn't, National Security Advisor and noted fan of invading Iran John Bolton will.

(Always remember that Trump really doesn't have much of a policy besides "whatever Fox News says". If they decide that Iran is dangerous, then Trump will listen)

Iran is weeks rather than months or years from having functional nuclear weapons.

Unsourced statement. A more realistic estimate is on the order of 6 to 9 months (source). Sidenote: This is a situation that only exists because Trump decided to throw away the existing treaties with Iran.

Saudi Arabia is no doubt calling Pakistan to take delivery of the nukes that they have prepaid.

Did you read about that in a Clancy knockoff novel or something?

Cos it's not real.

Your "source" is not particularly ceedible. It is also predicated on the implicit assumption that Iran will start with natural Uranium to produce bomb grade Uranium.

My source is my own estimate of how long it would take the centrifuge cascades with the stated capabilities of Iran's enrichment plants to further enrich reactor grade Uranium to bomb grade Uranium concentrations.
For visualization, draw the great pyramid. This is what a schematic of a centrifuge cascade looks like. For producing large volumes of low enriched Uranium, you build and use only the bottom half of the pyramid. This is actually 3/4 of the pyramid structure. To get to bomb grade Uranium, you have to build and use the upper half of the pyramid as well. However; if you start over again with reactor grade, enriched Uranium, that bottom half of the pyramid can produce bomb grade Uranium really fast because most of the work has already been done.

Dilandu wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Trump will NOT invade Iran. He learned from observing Bush's Forever Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This is probably correct observation. Another long war just before the election is NOT what US population would like.

Iran is weeks rather than months or years from having functional nuclear weapons.

Unsubstantiated.

I expect that the gas centrifuges are now working to transform low enriched Uranium reactor fuel into highly enriched fissile Uranium.

Possible, but there are no proofs for that.

Saudi Arabia is no doubt calling Pakistan to take delivery of the nukes that they have prepaid.

Doubtful. Pakistan have enough problems with India to gave his warheads away.

The US does not currently have precision guided, low yield, earth pentrating warhead nukes that we had with the Pershing II (preferably with shaped nuclear charges) that could take out Iran's nuclear bunkers with near zero civilian casualities.

And what happens with B61 Mod 11? This version was specifically designed as highly-precision nuclear penetrator, with hardened casting. It could be delivered by any stealth bomber with enough precision to attack hardened structures.

That would be the Mod 12 still in development.

Mod 11 is still is not nearly as capable as a ballistic missile with say a Mach 10 impact velocity. Good for shallow bunkers only.

My source is the person overseeing the iranian nuclear programs, whereas your source is stuff you assume.

Tell us, what exactly is the basis for your assumptions? Is it your extensive experience with the nuclear industry? Is it your extensive knowledge of Iran?

And where did you find evidence that the Saudis purchased nukes from Pakistan?

The E wrote:My source is the person overseeing the iranian nuclear programs, whereas your source is stuff you assume.

Tell us, what exactly is the basis for your assumptions? Is it your extensive experience with the nuclear industry? Is it your extensive knowledge of Iran?

And where did you find evidence that the Saudis purchased nukes from Pakistan?

There are rumors, that Saudi helped to pay for the Pakistan nuclear program in exchange of being under Pakistan "nuclear umbrella". I.e. in case of real emergency for any of participants, some Pakistan nuclear forces would be relocated to Saudi Arabia. But only rumors & suspicions, never confirmed.

The E wrote:My source is the person overseeing the iranian nuclear programs, whereas your source is stuff you assume.

Tell us, what exactly is the basis for your assumptions? Is it your extensive experience with the nuclear industry? Is it your extensive knowledge of Iran?

And where did you find evidence that the Saudis purchased nukes from Pakistan?

And you expect them to tell the truth.