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Guns, Guns Guns

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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:41 pm

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What never fails to astound me about these discussions is the number of people who treat it like it's a purely theoretical exercise. Well we have no idea what will happen if we do this so we have to make up all these premises and assumptions and model everything and try to figure it out...


But it's not a theoretical exercise. It's been done. Over and over and over and over. For decades. Out in that place called "the rest of the world that isn't the US".

We have the test results already.


Image

Data all falling along nice straight lines like that represent very clear and strong correlations.

And before anyone says "but that's GUN deaths. Of course gun deaths track gun ownership but imagine all those defenseless people in those disarmed countries being murdered by those other things because people who want to kill people can *always* find a way to..."

No.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2 ... 04-eng.gif

There is not some balancing out larger number of non-gun deaths in nations that don't have all those gun deaths so the homicide rates even out.

You'll notice the four countries with the overall highest rate of homicides are right up at the top of the list in gun deaths and gun ownership rates. They go together. The only large outliers are Switzerland and Mexico. Mexico is in the middle of a long term raging drug war so yeah, it has a high murder rate. and Switzerland has a low murder rate because as discussed earlier they pair that high rate of gun ownership with *universal* discipline and training requirements in mandatory militia duty.


So I agree, let's stop looking at cars or drugs or alcohol. We don't need to. We already have the fricking gun data. It's silly that this is even still a matter of debate at all.


As for the "but nobody thinks we have a gun problem in the US" angle. Yeah, and lots of Americans also think they have the best health care system in the word. That's an education problem that stems from the same root cause as I already hit at the top of this post. An astounding number of people in the US look at the world as if the US is the only thing in it that they need to concern themselves with and everything else is irrelevant.
Last edited by gcomeau on Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:44 pm

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Spacekiwi wrote:

Also, not sure if you noticed the name is kiwi, like the bird, not like the website. :) just helps represent where Im from. :)




My Apologies. :oops: I have no idea how that got there. My mind said kiwi may fingers types ... huh ... what. :shock: Worse I never noticed it at all when I proofread it. :(

Once again my apologies.

We have had many enjoyable conversations ones where agreed and wonder of wonders where we disagreed. Like this time. Though this time it is more a matter of scale I think.

Going by what you are saying the US isn't a world leader in supporting Drug Cartels and the like. Good to hear. Mexico's problems are Mexico's problems. Also good to hear. Now if we could just convince the News Media and the US Federal Government, we are golden, we won the war on drugs.

Ok, maybe little too sarcastic but anecdotal and what we are told seem to disagree.

Still can't believe I did that with your name, damn.

Have fun,
T2M
-----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:52 pm

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gcomeau wrote:What never fails to astound me about these discussions is the number of people who treat it like it's a purely theoretical exercise. Well we have no idea what will happen if we do this so we have to make up all these premises and assumptions and model everything and try to figure it out...


But it's not a theoretical exercise. It's been done. Over and over and over and over. For decades. Out in that place called "the rest of the world that isn't the US".

We have the test results already.


Image

Data all falling along nice straight lines like that represent very clear and strong correlations.

And before anyone says "but that's GUN deaths. Of course gun deaths track gun ownership but imagine all those defenseless people in those disarmed countries being murdered by those other things because people who want to kill people can *always* find a way to..."

No.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/85-002-x/2 ... 04-eng.gif

There is not some balancing out larger number of non-gun deaths in nations that don't have all those gun deaths so the homicide rates even out.

You'll notice the four countries with the overall highest rate of homicides are right up at the top of the list in gun homicides and gun ownership rates. They go together. The only large outliers are Switzerland and Mexico. Mexico is in the middle of a long term raging drug war so yeah, it has a high murder rate. and Switzerland has a low murder rate because as discussed earlier they pair that high rate of gun ownership with *universal* discipline and training requirements in mandatory militia duty.


So I agree, let's stop looking at cars or drugs or alcohol. We don't need to. We already have the fricking gun data. It's silly that this is even still a matter of debate at all.


As for the "but nobody thinks we have a gun problem in the US" angle. Yeah, and lots of Americans also think they have the best health care system in the word. That's an education problem that stems from the same root cause as I already hit at the top of this post. An astounding number of people in the US look at the world as if the US is the only thing in it that they need to concern themselves with and everything else is irrelevant.


So once all gun deaths are done what does that do to violent crime rates.

FL more concealed weapons permits over time less violent crime over time.

Chicago less access to legal firearms more crime. Washington, DC the same. L.A. The same. The list goes on and on and on.

You have a wonderful one dimensional view. Once guns are gone life is good. Except in the US it doesn't work that way.

And Zimmerman has his skull broken open on a sidewalk by a thug. Thank you for your support for a civilized society. US Ain't there. Sorry people are people sort of. Culture is not culture.

"Good to be sure."
T2M
-----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:10 pm

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thinkstoomuch wrote:So once all gun deaths are done what does that do to violent crime rates.

FL more concealed weapons permits over time less violent crime over time.

Chicago less access to legal firearms more crime. Washington, DC the same. L.A. The same. The list goes on and on and on.

You have a wonderful one dimensional view. Once guns are gone life is good. Except in the US it doesn't work that way.

And Zimmerman has his skull broken open on a sidewalk by a thug. Thank you for your support for a civilized society. US Ain't there. Sorry people are people sort of. Culture is not culture.

"Good to be sure."
T2M


Cities (or even states for that matter) are not islands unto themselves, using them to try to figure out the impact of gun laws is an exercise in futility.

Cities have no border controls. It doesn't matter if you make guns illegal in one city if people can drive an hour and go buy one then bring it back in with no checks performed.

There is a slightly higher ability to regulate by state because simple distances involved act as a kind of quasi-barrier... but not much of one. if you want real effect you need controls around the are you're trying to regulate. Which means you need federal action.

And violent crime has trended down nationally, so pointing out it trended down in cherry picked cities means nothing. "Violent crime" is subject to many more influencing factors than homicides and there has been no real demonstrated correlation between gun ownership rates and violent crime in the US.

This:

Image

Is a relationship with almost 0 correlation. Violent crime spikes massively while gun ownership rates rise, then plummets drastically while it continues to rise.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 5:25 pm

thinkstoomuch
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Location: United States of America

You say there is no correlation between gun ownership and violent crime.

This shows that in the US (to be honest and no disrepect intended to other nationalities not my country to a certain extent what you do is up to you).

Your previous chart said most gun ownership currently, for the length of the chart.

And from http://www.factcheck.org/2012/12/gun-rh ... gun-facts/

Gun murders in the US are at the lowest since at least 1981. So then their is no correlation between gun murders and gun ownership in the US. Yeah it is old but it really is not worth my time. If we are talking about gun murders. I could care less about gun deaths. Though President Bush and his let's give every village a SWAT team with military equipment may have influenced that. Just like the war on drugs embraced by every recent President influences that.

More or less everything you want is available somewhere else. As you constantly point out. Ever considered moving? From what Daryl and the media have been saying Australia looks like a good place they would probably be glad to have you. So maybe England?

Your choice if the majority don't want what you want, then that seems your best option.

Anyways I'm done for now.

Have fun,
T2M
-----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:22 pm

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T2M,

There is a flip side. Gun ownership has no correlation to violent crime. That means there is no damaging societal consequence to arming the citizenry in an effort to deter government over reach. Since the 2nd Amendment was instituted as a guarantor of the 1st Amendment, there is no real social cost to having high rates of gun ownership.

thinkstoomuch wrote:You say there is no correlation between gun ownership and violent crime.

This shows that in the US (to be honest and no disrepect intended to other nationalities not my country to a certain extent what you do is up to you).

Your previous chart said most gun ownership currently, for the length of the chart.

And from http://www.factcheck.org/2012/12/gun-rh ... gun-facts/

Gun murders in the US are at the lowest since at least 1981. So then their is no correlation between gun murders and gun ownership in the US. Yeah it is old but it really is not worth my time. If we are talking about gun murders. I could care less about gun deaths. Though President Bush and his let's give every village a SWAT team with military equipment may have influenced that. Just like the war on drugs embraced by every recent President influences that.

More or less everything you want is available somewhere else. As you constantly point out. Ever considered moving? From what Daryl and the media have been saying Australia looks like a good place they would probably be glad to have you. So maybe England?

Your choice if the majority don't want what you want, then that seems your best option.

Anyways I'm done for now.

Have fun,
T2M
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Spacekiwi   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:19 pm

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No worries. you aren't the first, probably won't be the last. :)


thinkstoomuch wrote:
My Apologies. :oops: I have no idea how that got there. My mind said kiwi may fingers types ... huh ... what. :shock: Worse I never noticed it at all when I proofread it. :(

Once again my apologies.

We have had many enjoyable conversations ones where agreed and wonder of wonders where we disagreed. Like this time. Though this time it is more a matter of scale I think.

Going by what you are saying the US isn't a world leader in supporting Drug Cartels and the like. Good to hear. Mexico's problems are Mexico's problems. Also good to hear. Now if we could just convince the News Media and the US Federal Government, we are golden, we won the war on drugs.

Ok, maybe little too sarcastic but anecdotal and what we are told seem to disagree.

Still can't believe I did that with your name, damn.

Have fun,
T2M
`
Image


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
its not paranoia if its justified... :D
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:11 pm

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thinkstoomuch wrote:You say there is no correlation between gun ownership and violent crime.

This shows that in the US (to be honest and no disrepect intended to other nationalities not my country to a certain extent what you do is up to you).

Your previous chart said most gun ownership currently, for the length of the chart.


Yes, but I just noticed they were charting it in absolute numbers, which is inexcusably stupid. Of course the absolute numbers keep going up, the population keeps going up.

Thy should have charted it per capita, or per household. Which would look something like this: (Gallup)...

Image

The non-correlating point holds. The claim that the US currently has the highest rate of gun ownership does not.



PeterZ wrote:There is a flip side. Gun ownership has no correlation to violent crime. That means there is no damaging societal consequence to arming the citizenry in an effort to deter government over reach.


We have already established the rather strong correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates.

So, no deleterious effects except all the thousands of dead fellow citizens year after year after year...


And can we someday dispense with the fairy tale that dumping guns into the general population is a deterrent against government overreach in the first place... how many times in US history has an armed citizenry risen up and prevented the government from going all authoritarian? Or even the explicit threat of same occurring done so? Oh right, zero.

Uncle Bob owning a rifle doesn't keep the government from turning all dictatorial. The democratic institutions of the nation that make it so the people running the government can only do it if they keep winning elections does that. Imperfectly, but FAR more effectively than a bunch of random firearms floating around the country under no guiding authority or organization.


A group of citizens did try to put your theory into practice once upon a time, attempted to rise up with force of arms against a government taking unconstitutional (in their view) action... George Washington personally sicced the militia on them and sent them home with their tail between their legs and that was the end of the Whiskey Rebellion.


Haven't noticed it happening too much since then... because it doesn't work.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Annachie   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:42 pm

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Invictus, you are so wrong on the effect of our gun laws that it must be a deliberate and concious choice on your part to ignore everything related to the topic.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
You are so going to die. :p ~~~~ runsforcelery
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
still not dead. :)
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:44 pm

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Location: Colorado

gcomeau wrote:
PeterZ wrote:There is a flip side. Gun ownership has no correlation to violent crime. That means there is no damaging societal consequence to arming the citizenry in an effort to deter government over reach.


We have already established the rather strong correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates.

So, no deleterious effects except all the thousands of dead fellow citizens year after year after year...


And can we someday dispense with the fairy tale that dumping guns into the general population is a deterrent against government overreach in the first place... how many times in US history has an armed citizenry risen up and prevented the government from going all authoritarian? Or even the explicit threat of same occurring done so? Oh right, zero.

Uncle Bob owning a rifle doesn't keep the government from turning all dictatorial. The democratic institutions of the nation that make it so the people running the government can only do it if they keep winning elections does that. Imperfectly, but FAR more effectively than a bunch of random firearms floating around the country under no guiding authority or organization.


A group of citizens did try to put your theory into practice once upon a time, attempted to rise up with force of arms against a government taking unconstitutional (in their view) action... George Washington personally sicced the militia on them and sent them home with their tail between their legs and that was the end of the Whiskey Rebellion.


Haven't noticed it happening too much since then... because it doesn't work.


If there is no correlation between gun ownership and violent crime and homicide is a violent crime, it follows that gun ownership is unrelated to violent crime.

If gun ownership is directly related to homicide rates and homicide is a violent crime, then for both statements to be true, gun ownership must deter violent crimes other than attempted homicide and/or something else.

I suspect that gun ownership is not correlated to incidents of violent crime, but the lethality of assaults committed with a gun. That by itself argues for universal gun ownership. If criminals are made more lethal with access to guns, then law abiding citizens need guns to protect themselves from the increased lethality of gun armed criminals.

If gun ownership deters other violent crimes like rape, then with holding access to guns increases the likelihood of those other violent crimes. After all, the data suggests that gun ownership tends to decrease non-homicide violent crimes.

As for the deterring governmental over reach, the founding fathers believed an armed populace deterred tyranny. They might have been right or not. That is to some extent besides the point. What isn't beside the point is that our Constitution guarantees us the right to own guns. You are free not to own a gun but not free to with hold one from me should I choose to own one.

You want to change that, then change the Constitution.
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