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Guns, Guns Guns

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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by The E   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:08 am

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:The FBI refuses to publish rankings of police forces based on clearance rates, but the Supplementary Homicide Reports provide the raw data. There are huge variations in arrest rates for murder. As a general rule, big city police departments whose chiefs are selected by elected mayors and city councils are abysmal (3 out of 4 murders NOT solved) while rural anf suburban counties with elected sheriffs have very high clearance rates and consequently low murder rates.


TFLY's inability to parse and analyze statistical data is a thing to behold (In this case: Assuming a correlation exists between clearance rates and law enforcement staffing procedures without providing evidence that conclusively excludes other factors)
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Annachie   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:58 am

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Oh, there are obvious factors.

Generally much less crime so more resources available for every murder.

Voted sherifs are basically a popularity contest winner, so more likely to get tips etc.

Much smaller suspect pool.

Things like that, or so it would seem to me.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:21 pm

TFLYTSNBN

noblehunter wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:The FBI refuses to publish rankings of police forces based on clearance rates, but the Supplementary Homicide Reports provide the raw data. There are huge variations in arrest rates for murder. As a general rule, big city police departments whose chiefs are selected by elected mayors and city councils are abysmal (3 out of 4 murders NOT solved) while rural anf suburban counties with elected sheriffs have very high clearance rates and consequently low murder rates.


You'd need to control for a whole host of variables before you conclude that elected sheriff vs appointed police chief has any significant effect on clearance rates.



The analysis has already been done by Professor John Lott in MORE GUNS, LESS CRIME. People were to fixated on the gun issue to take notice of the very rigorous statistical analysis of crime verse clearance rates in various jurisdictions.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:23 pm

TFLYTSNBN

Annachie wrote:Rural murders are, in general, much simpler to solve.



Really?

Why?

Your effort to answer these questions might be educational.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:25 pm

TFLYTSNBN

The E wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:The FBI refuses to publish rankings of police forces based on clearance rates, but the Supplementary Homicide Reports provide the raw data. There are huge variations in arrest rates for murder. As a general rule, big city police departments whose chiefs are selected by elected mayors and city councils are abysmal (3 out of 4 murders NOT solved) while rural anf suburban counties with elected sheriffs have very high clearance rates and consequently low murder rates.


TFLY's inability to parse and analyze statistical data is a thing to behold (In this case: Assuming a correlation exists between clearance rates and law enforcement staffing procedures without providing evidence that conclusively excludes other factors)



If confronted with actual information and analysis that you cant refute, just spew more insulting bovine scatalogy. You have no relevant data to cite so you are not entitled to an opinion.
Last edited by TFLYTSNBN on Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:30 pm

TFLYTSNBN

Annachie wrote:Oh, there are obvious factors.

Generally much less crime so more resources available for every murder.

Voted sherifs are basically a popularity contest winner, so more likely to get tips etc.

Much smaller suspect pool.

Things like that, or so it would seem to me.



Actually, No. Rural counties generally have fewer law enforcement officers per resident than big cities. What is different is the willingness to commit resources to investigate homicides. Many big city police departments with very high homicide rates and very low clearance rates expend almost no effort to investigate murders. The term "miseemeanor murder" is often applied to cases where the victim has a significant criminal record.

https://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-C ... 0226493660
Last edited by TFLYTSNBN on Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by smr   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:46 pm

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It's his Method of Operation (MO), when he can not disprove the argument he attacks the person. Remember his self-acknowledged political ideology (A Communist). So believing in God, Capitalism, or a Republic is totally out of his political and ideological agenda. So people that believe in God and a Republic would have to be reeducated or killed. Off the prison camp for the believers! :shock: Don't be surprised if he turns you in for a person's post that he objects to. :lol: I believe he has done that nasty little trick on more than one occasion. :P
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Michael Everett   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:18 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:If confronted with actual information and analysis that you cant refute, just spew more insulting bivine scatalogy.

What is a bivine?
Is it related to a Sammoflange (which should not be stepped on)?
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by The E   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:25 pm

The E
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TFLYTSNBN wrote:If confronted with actual information and analysis that you cant refute, just spew more insulting bivine scatalogy. You have no relevant data to cite so you are not entitled to an opinion.


Oh, I'm sorry, did you at any point in that post of yours cite a source?

No?

Then forgive me for thinking that, like other posts of yours, that one too was you being either dishonest or proudly uninformed.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:The analysis has already been done by Professor John Lott in MORE GUNS, LESS CRIME. People were to fixated on the gun issue to take notice of the very rigorous statistical analysis of crime verse clearance rates in various jurisdictions.


Oh.

John Lott, eh?

Tell us, is that the same John Lott who, quite possibly, faked research results?

Or is he the guy who felt that he needed to create a sockpuppet account to hype up his own work?

Or is he the guy who claimed to have a study peer-reviewed, without any such review taking place?

Or the guy who claimed that
“Most people may not realize this, but the rate of mass public shootings in Europe is actually fairly similar to the rate in the United States,” he said. “There is no statistically significant difference there, either in terms of the rate or fatalities.”

Which, you know, is such a wrong statement that only someone with your inability to tell good statistical work from bad would believe. (Bonus points: Lott's own data sets disprove this statement! Feel free to laugh at TFLY and his gullibility now)

Like, if you want a good laugh (and yet another confirmation of the anti-science bias being strong in conservatives this decade), read the thinkprogress article linked above. TFLY won't believe any of it, of course; he's too far gone to accept that people who are not of his tribe may have a point. But I figure the rest of you might get a chuckle out of it.

smr wrote:It's his Method of Operation (MO), when he can not disprove the argument he attacks the person.


TFLY made a statement, one that is on its face counterintuitive. That, by itself, does not make it false, but it does require evidence, which FLY did not provide. When he did, he used a source that is, well, not clean: There are clear methodological concerns with Lott's work that mean that supporting science from less bad sources needs to be provided.

Fly, of course, did not provide any of that.

Remember his self-acknowledged political ideology (A Communist). So believing in God, Capitalism, or a Republic is totally out of his political and ideological agenda. So people that believe in God and a Republic would have to be reeducated or killed.


That you think you know how I think is funny to me.

Off the prison camp for the believers! :shock: Don't be surprised if he turns you in for a person's post that he objects to. :lol: I believe he has done that nasty little trick on more than one occasion. :P


Who would I turn people in to?
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:06 pm

TFLYTSNBN

Michael Everett wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:If confronted with actual information and analysis that you cant refute, just spew more insulting bivine scatalogy.

What is a bivine?
Is it related to a Sammoflange (which should not be stepped on)?



"Bivine" is a mispelling of "bovine".
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