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Useful ideas

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Useful ideas
Post by DDHvi   » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:35 pm

DDHvi
Captain (Junior Grade)

Posts: 365
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:16 pm

About 10 years ago, I stopped watching cable and network news regularly, and then altogether. I rarely if ever watch local news, and then only for the weather.

Fifteen years before that, I heard a lecture by Ray Bradbury, the late, great novelist and author of The Martian Chronicles and Fahrenheit 451. I don’t remember what the lecture was about, but one digression stuck with me. “Never, ever watch television news,” Bradbury said. “Especially local news. You’ll think the world is coming to an end.”


In high school, I decided that television was too much like cotton candy: taste, fluff, but nutrition free. :roll: Later I learned speed reading which increases the input bandwidth.

Bradbury was right :!:

Tetlock discovered the strongest predictor of someone's ability to become a superforecaster wasn't their intelligence, but rather the degree to which they were committed to updating their beliefs.

In other words, superforecasters commonly viewed their initial forecast as a starting point, a "hypothesis to be tested, not a treasure to be guarded."


After years of research and work with "superforecasters," Tetlock created a mosaic of their philosophic outlook, abilities, thinking styles, and methods. These are also important traits for those who want to be superior investors:

• Be cautious, for nothing is certain;
• Be humble, for reality is infinitely complex;
• Be intellectually curious and open-minded;
• Value diverse views and synthesize them into your own;
• Believe it's possible to get better.


I suspect Tetlock is right also.
Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd
ddhviste@drtel.net

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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