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Post League Eridani

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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by GloriousRuse   » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:07 pm

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There is a large difference between a few cruisers being nobly self-sacrificing, and admitting Manticore prime’s 3 billion citizens might be the price next time you go to bat - and since you are going to bat after the fact, you can’t even save whoeve got EEV’d
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by ldwechsler   » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:14 pm

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GloriousRuse wrote:There is a large difference between a few cruisers being nobly self-sacrificing, and admitting Manticore prime’s 3 billion citizens might be the price next time you go to bat - and since you are going to bat after the fact, you can’t even save whoeve got EEV’d



At that point you might as well surrender to any bad guy that comes along. They threaten, you cave.
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by tlb   » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:26 pm

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GloriousRuse wrote:First, that supposes the reformed League survives and does not either fracture to pieces or become 19th century China.

If it does, it is quite clear that any number of barbs might, with profliferation we’ve already seen in Maya, portions of the verge, the emerging Renaissance Factor, and so forth can now be militarily potent enough even with limited tonnage to inflict unacceptable levels of destruction versus the league. A squadron of Sagami-esque cruisers could theoretically kill dozens of worlds until a 400 ship fleet could be brought to the party. It’s one thing to lose one world in three hundred to set an example no one will forget. It’s abother to commit your member states to dying in the tens of planets for someone else’s war.

Which means until the SLN modernizes, it can’t take the risk of enforcing the EE except in self defense. Of course, once modernized...Weber might give the Manties a free pass, but he’d be cheating...because a revanchist League fresh with a call to glory and getting over barbarian humiliation won’t end well for the SEM. But, I digress.

Back to topic, if the new league cannot guarantee the EE, then it falls to the GA. Is it likely that Haven is willing to lose a planet or three so the Manties can feel righteous? And how long would the Talbot sector stay aligned if the SEM core let’s its newest members get killed? As for Grayson, they’re part of the SEM. And even if Grayson doesn’t come to the party, I bet the possibility of killing them would cause a lot of internal hand wringing in the SEM.

That’s where a red team puts its leverage. The GA might, if it were a unified whole, be willing to accept some planetary losses. As a coalition of individual governments, none of the governments are in position to trade away planets. Even the Manties have to realize that short of Deus Ex Weber, taking losses in the core guts them, and taking losses in Talbot will forever be proof that when you sign on with the SKM, you sign on to be eradicated for their ambitions as a rule enforcing hegemon.

ldwechsler wrote:Notice that the Manticore Navy went to bat for a planet that was not even part of the SEM at Hypathia. Having big friends is a way of protection. It doesn't always work but we haven't had a major war in Europe for almost three quarters of a century.

One nitpick: Grayson is part of the GA, but as of the end of UH it has not asked to be part of the SEM.

I see no reason for the core worlds to leave the new SL, with the exception of some aligned to Beowulf or to the Maya Sector or to the Renaissance Factor. That still leaves most of the core. They may have been economically hurt by Laocoon and perhaps by interstellar corporations losing their cash cows in the Verge, but none were militarily hurt with the exception of Sol. The new League does not have to have a modernized navy to join, because if is still more powerful than anyone outside the GA.

So where does the threat of planet busting reside? So far the Malign wants the Renaissance Factor to take over, but would it use Eridani violations to pursue that goal?

Still, if someone is using planet disruption to commit mass murder, then it is everyone's war on the principle behind the poem "First they came ..." written by the German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller:
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by GloriousRuse   » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:57 pm

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@LDWeschler: No. you don’t cave every time someone shouts boo. But you don’t risk holocaust wars for peripheral purposes. Of course the SEM would still promise anyone that if they EEV’d it, all bets are off and the mutual genocide begins. I would go so far as to say that if anyone in Manticore suddenly found themselves on the down side of the equation and facing the loss of Ma ty prime but a successful EEV threat might forestall that...they make the threat.

But die in the billions to tens of billions to feel good about avenging a Hypatia that ate an EEV? Cripple themselves as a nation and empire to intercede against the actions fighters possibly half a universe away? That’s not so clear, or plausible. Which means it’s way less credible as an enforcement mechanism.

@TLB. The shock of having a new government forced down its throat by a foreign power immediately after finding out its vaunted superiority isn’t...as other sectors and systems are actively rebelling/leaving/switching sides...that could very easily crack the League. The practicality of re-writing a new government alone could crack the league.

As to “the league is still heavier than everyone else”. Except for the fact that large chunks of the verge have outpaced them militarily, an entire sector upgunned before it left, and any leader in the League or out now realizes the race is on to build a new model navy. Plus who knows what leaps peoples bordering the League out of the Haven sector have made? Would you, after having barbs kick your teeth in out of the blue, be more inclined or less so to believe another unremarkable bunch of barns might have tricks up their sleeves? Would you bet planets on it?

As to the threat of planet-killing: it lies with anyone who can benefit from it strategically. Which is basically anyone. It is particularly useful for small nations, as it allows them strategic importance and influence far beyond what they would have with “honorable” fighting.

The poem, while a classic, does recall the fact that in the end no one actually spoke.

And that the generations of school children brought up on it have so far failed to stop ethnic cleansing, religious purification, and so forth unless it personally threatened their immediate interests. Or, for a more thread relevant crime, risk nuclear war to stop nuclear proliferation to decidedly illiberal states.
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by tlb   » Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:04 am

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GloriousRuse wrote:As to “the league is still heavier than everyone else”. Except for the fact that large chunks of the verge have outpaced them militarily, an entire sector upgunned before it left, and any leader in the League or out now realizes the race is on to build a new model navy. Plus who knows what leaps peoples bordering the League out of the Haven sector have made? Would you, after having barbs kick your teeth in out of the blue, be more inclined or less so to believe another unremarkable bunch of barns might have tricks up their sleeves? Would you bet planets on it?

What is your evidence for that? The Maya Sector and Erewhon are not large chunks of the Verge.
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:39 am

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This thread is profoundly insightful but I have limited my participation because of the obvious real world analogy.

A few comments are in order.

Weber first alluded to genocidal attacks way back in The Honor of the Queen, (aka HotQ to those of us who have noticed that Queen Elizebeth resembles Wendy Williams). Weber had yet to be educated by fans such as KZT and a certain NAMELESSFLY about the physics of missiles impacting planets at large fractions of Cee, so he presumed that the nuclear warheads were actually relevant. (Of course you probably need a nuclear "burster charge" to keep the missile from just punching through the planetary crust and depositing most of its energy harmlessly into the mantle. Reminds me of a freind who got to observe the effefts of an AP shell from a Kongo BC on the mess deck of a treaty CA. Took out half a dozen guys who were across the table from him before exiting with no other damage.)

One aspect of EEV attacks that Weber made very obvious was that an effective defense is possible. The cruiser and destroyer under Honor Harrington's command combined with the Grayson space navy had the capacity to intercept relatively large numbers of missiles on purely ballistic trajectories. Early warning from recon platforms using Grav Pulse Communications dramatically enhanced the effectiveness of the defenses. This is why the Masadan battlecruiser had to close with the planet to get within powered missile range, hence Weber's trademark deathride.

The EE had been largely successful for centuries. A major exception was Masada's attack on Yelstin prior to Manticore's involvement. It was an EEV but mitigated by active defenses which neither the League, Haven, the Andermandi or even the SKM chose to do anything about. This one exception which probably was not entirely isolated demonstrated that the primary beneficiaries of the EE were civilized star systems, primarily members of the SL as well as Haven, the Andermandi and may be Manticore who had the military capacity to respond. Everyone else was up feces stream without an impeller node, but they didn't matter.

You will notice that the EE was so successful at deterring genocidal attacks that few members systems of the SL felt the need to maintain significant SDFs that could intercept missiles on ballistic trajectories much less prevent even a cruiser from getting within powered missile range of their planet. (As KZT and a certain NAMELESSFLY have noticed, Honorveree Grasers should be collimunated well enough to scortch planets over intersteller distances, but I digress.)

Only star nations such as the SKM, Haven, presumably the Andermandi, and Trevors Star seem to have had significant defenses deployed. Everyone else was utterly dependant on the SLN to deter an EEV.

Now that the SLN has been revealed to be not only less than omnipotent but also a violator of the EE, everyone will rethink their reliance on deterrence. Everyone that can will get themselves the most powerful navy that they can afford. Of course the more systems that have SDFs, the more systems have the capacity to commit EEVs. Perhaps there will evolve an arms control regime where limits will be imposed on hypercapable vessels that can be used offensively while deployments of forts, system defense pods and STL only warships will be encouraged?
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by cthia   » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:28 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:This thread is profoundly insightful but I have limited my participation because of the obvious real world analogy.

A few comments are in order.

Weber first alluded to genocidal attacks way back in The Honor of the Queen, (aka HotQ to those of us who have noticed that Queen Elizebeth resembles Wendy Williams). Weber had yet to be educated by fans such as KZT and a certain NAMELESSFLY about the physics of missiles impacting planets at large fractions of Cee, so he presumed that the nuclear warheads were actually relevant. (Of course you probably need a nuclear "burster charge" to keep the missile from just punching through the planetary crust and depositing most of its energy harmlessly into the mantle. Reminds me of a freind who got to observe the effefts of an AP shell from a Kongo BC on the mess deck of a treaty CA. Took out half a dozen guys who were across the table from him before exiting with no other damage.)

One aspect of EEV attacks that Weber made very obvious was that an effective defense is possible. The cruiser and destroyer under Honor Harrington's command combined with the Grayson space navy had the capacity to intercept relatively large numbers of missiles on purely ballistic trajectories. Early warning from recon platforms using Grav Pulse Communications dramatically enhanced the effectiveness of the defenses. This is why the Masadan battlecruiser had to close with the planet to get within powered missile range, hence Weber's trademark deathride.

The EE had been largely successful for centuries. A major exception was Masada's attack on Yelstin prior to Manticore's involvement. It was an EEV but mitigated by active defenses which neither the League, Haven, the Andermandi or even the SKM chose to do anything about. This one exception which probably was not entirely isolated demonstrated that the primary beneficiaries of the EE were civilized star systems, primarily members of the SL as well as Haven, the Andermandi and may be Manticore who had the military capacity to respond. Everyone else was up feces stream without an impeller node, but they didn't matter.

You will notice that the EE was so successful at deterring genocidal attacks that few members systems of the SL felt the need to maintain significant SDFs that could intercept missiles on ballistic trajectories much less prevent even a cruiser from getting within powered missile range of their planet. (As KZT and a certain NAMELESSFLY have noticed, Honorveree Grasers should be collimunated well enough to scortch planets over intersteller distances, but I digress.)

Only star nations such as the SKM, Haven, presumably the Andermandi, and Trevors Star seem to have had significant defenses deployed. Everyone else was utterly dependant on the SLN to deter an EEV.

Now that the SLN has been revealed to be not only less than omnipotent but also a violator of the EE, everyone will rethink their reliance on deterrence. Everyone that can will get themselves the most powerful navy that they can afford. Of course the more systems that have SDFs, the more systems have the capacity to commit EEVs. Perhaps there will evolve an arms control regime where limits will be imposed on hypercapable vessels that can be used offensively while deployments of forts, system defense pods and STL only warships will be encouraged?


Nice post FLY!

This is a really nice thread, GloriousRuse. Peering under the skin.

Can it always be determined exactly who committed the EEV? What about a really poor planet on the verge of nowhere with only a few ships visiting from time to time. Where are the witnesses?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by tlb   » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:33 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Now that the SLN has been revealed to be not only less than omnipotent but also a violator of the EE, everyone will rethink their reliance on deterrence. Everyone that can will get themselves the most powerful navy that they can afford. Of course the more systems that have SDFs, the more systems have the capacity to commit EEVs. Perhaps there will evolve an arms control regime where limits will be imposed on hypercapable vessels that can be used offensively while deployments of forts, system defense pods and STL only warships will be encouraged?

The worlds that can best afford what you suggest are the core worlds of the Solarian League; which currently have a second tier navy. Rather than arming individually, it would make sense for them to modernize what they already have.

System defense pods are problematic since they can be hauled by an ammo ship or tractored to a hull.
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by tlb   » Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:43 pm

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cthia wrote:Can it always be determined exactly who committed the EEV? What about a really poor planet on the verge of nowhere with only a few ships visiting from time to time. Where are the witnesses?

That is a problem, but what would be the point of killing a poor planet in the middle of nowhere? Aside from some group getting a sick thrill. The refuge ship headed to the Tiberian System was destroyed because it encountered pirates, but they ignored the people on the surface until they needed to kill the pinnacle crew.
For any more prosperous planet, we would hope escapees had sensor readings etc that could ID the culprits.
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Re: Post League Eridani
Post by cthia   » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:58 pm

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tlb wrote:
cthia wrote:Can it always be determined exactly who committed the EEV? What about a really poor planet on the verge of nowhere with only a few ships visiting from time to time. Where are the witnesses?

That is a problem, but what would be the point of killing a poor planet in the middle of nowhere? Aside from some group getting a sick thrill. The refuge ship headed to the Tiberian System was destroyed because it encountered pirates, but they ignored the people on the surface until they needed to kill the pinnacle crew.
For any more prosperous planet, we would hope escapees had sensor readings etc that could ID the culprits.

That's a good question.

I can think of one case. EEVicting a species from its planet because of some crime of passion. Crimes of passion are bereft of any logic. They are crimes of the heart. They do exist even in the Honorverse. Take Grayson and Masada for example. Masada's willingness to EEvict the Graysons from their homeworld is the quintessential crime of passion. I fully understand the objection, considering the definition of crime of passion - literally temporarily going insane in the heat of the moment. But apparently, in the Honorverse, people can hold onto anger longer, even through the round trip of sub light ship to ship communications.

The reason I thought that man would govern himself from doing such a thing is because I hate to believe that man is inherently suicidal. I know, a very compelling argument can be made against. But to what ends would one make the decision? Surely MAD would sway one from breaking glass and pushing the button. Ask yourself, under what conditions would you yourself push the button. What would it take beyond waiting to hatch another plan?

Civil planets wouldn't dare (well, Solarians withstanding) and poor planets don't want to end all everyone's existence over an ideal.

Ask yourself. Under what conditions would you yourself push the button to start it. Finishing it falls under a different mindset - one vested in emotion because someone made it personal. Temporary insanity. If we think that man can so easily turn to destroying planets, I am embarrassed to be human. Although I must admit that a much less optimistic reality is most likely likely.

Also, let's not forget that there is a minimum amount of support ships to make this kind of a strike feasible. You can't send one ship out against even a poorly picketed Manty system. And a collection of ships is unlikely to be owned by just any system. And a collection of ships will be detected in even lightly defended Manty systems. But the ability of Haven, the League, the Andermani and Grayson to easily destroy lots of planets is real.

Any John Doe system may be able to pull the trigger once, but they can't trade planet for planet with someone who can quickly move mass amounts of tech to EEvict.

Which brings me back to why would someone do it unless it's a crime of passion?

Excellent thread GloriousRuse!

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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