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Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?

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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by cthia   » Mon Dec 30, 2019 9:56 am

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The SL resorting to MAD would require the civilian heads to actually be willing to put their own asses on the line and die for their cause in tit-for-tat strikes. I really can't see either Mandarin signing off on something that will certainly bury his own ass, and that of his loved ones.

Willing to sacrifice the lives in your Navy is one thing, but willing to sacrifice your own ass and your family and friends is quite another.

And even if some civilian is that suicidal, it would still require everyone else to be just as crazy. Not just every other Mandarin, but the flesh and blood aboard the warships as well.

The human element is always present.


Late edit: There are several threads either bashing the SEM and/or identifying with her enemies. Which is difficult for me to digest unless I consider that all of you may have been kidnapped by the Malign.

The MA got to you didn't they?

I could put a battery of questions to you to determine if you're malignant, but I'm afraid you'll drop dead.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:36 am

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Brigade XO wrote:The SL/SLN may have written Eridani Edict and were viewed as the primary enfocers of it- their the 800lb gorilla- they certainly arn't the only ones who see it as a necessity nor are WILLING to enfoce it. Probably almost every system we have seen believes in both the Edict and doesn't want to be involved in anything that would bring it into play. The major exception to that is the Alignment and they really only view it as a component in their plans, not as a prohibition to devistate or kill everything on a planet.
Note that part of the discussion running up to Oyster Bay was to be very carefull to avoid direct strikes of weapons on the Manticore inhabited planets or Grayson but that the debris falling into the gravity wells involved didn't- just - actualy violate the EE. It was going to be "collateral damage" and essentially not their problem.
Part of the Detweiler Plan is to sow havoc and destruction across Human Space such that their front operation, the RF, shouldl be the way to eventialy bring all the systems under the control of the Alignment and impliment all of it's policies about pushing Human Improment.
They know and intend that BILLIONS are going to die but since they will pretty much will be "normal" humans and of little use beyond feedstock for experiments they will be used up adding to the chaos.
Manticore, on the other hand, isn't going to go around devistating planitary environments. They will abide by and enforce the EE. They conduct operations to avoid causing them.

When the SLN and mostly the head of the Bureaucracy decide on what amounts to a terror campaign to stay in power, they - the people in charge- effectivly throw the EE out the airlock since in the process of wipeing out the orbital in other in-system facilities of the system in Buccaneer etc, they are also going to eventualy kill a lot of people and have the same damage to planes as Oyster Bay along with, again eventually, throw missiles at planets.
It is only though the planning of the several SLN commanders in Buccanneer we do see that things haven't been raining down on occupied planet before Honor shows up at Earth and gives them a dose of their own medicine. Perhaps you have missed that what Honore does to the Sol system is a masterful rendition of Buccaneer without the civilian or much of any casaulties on the SLN side- and none we see due to direct GA weapons.

The Alignment, on the other hand, would have been most pleased if the GA had shown up and blasted eveything including the Earth, Mars and EVERYTHING in orbits (they spaired the essentialy civilian orbital habatats) and so start the slaugher and collapse of the SL and make the GA the next Great Satan.


One aspect of the EE that mystifies me is the lack of understanding that simply destroying industrial infrastructure will result in genocidal casualties. The preindustrial population of Earth remained below 100 million people for tens of thousands of years. Even with the invention of agriculture and irrigation, the natural carrying capacity of the planet that humans evolved on was far, far less than 1 billion people. Most Honorverse planets seem to have populations of billions of people even though the biosphere is not completely Earthlike and humans have not wiped out the natural life forms to make room for human crops and livestock. These naturally large populations are able to survive and thrive because technology and industry provide food, shelter, warmth and critical supplies. Destroy the primary resource extraction, processing and manufacturing facilities which are off planet, a huge percentage of the population will die.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:52 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:One aspect of the EE that mystifies me is the lack of understanding that simply destroying industrial infrastructure will result in genocidal casualties. The preindustrial population of Earth remained below 100 million people for tens of thousands of years. Even with the invention of agriculture and irrigation, the natural carrying capacity of the planet that humans evolved on was far, far less than 1 billion people. Most Honorverse planets seem to have populations of billions of people even though the biosphere is not completely Earthlike and humans have not wiped out the natural life forms to make room for human crops and livestock. These naturally large populations are able to survive and thrive because technology and industry provide food, shelter, warmth and critical supplies. Destroy the primary resource extraction, processing and manufacturing facilities which are off planet, a huge percentage of the population will die.


That's a very good point and one of those we'll have to accept the author's handwavium. We only see a glimpse of that in Grayson, where they have extensive orbital farming, but we don't hear about it elsewhere. Yet as we understand how human diaspora is likely to happen, every system should have a lot of that. Colonisation, especially by sublight ships to differing biospheres, should start with space habitats. Take Beowulf: a system populated for 1800 T-years, it should have so many space habitats that you wouldn't assign them Greek letters as it would be insufficient! (Unless you want to use Greek numbering, which does start with alpha, beta and gamma, but is worse than Roman numbering...)

Especially industry. Materials and raw ore are much easier to obtain in space than down a gravity well. For a lot of reasons, including not having to tear up and pollute the place you're trying to live on.

On the other hand, those same arguments would indicate the systems' populations were incredibly low. Given what we do know about the economy and demographics in the Honorverse, it might just be possible that the populations can sustain themselves with local, planet-bound agriculture. It's stretching the parametres, especially for the Sol System.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by Galactic Sapper   » Mon Dec 30, 2019 9:58 pm

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I'm pretty sure it's addressed in text that nearly all systems are self sufficient in terms of food, with Earth being the notable exception. Even then they could be self sufficient if they wanted to be. At most it will be a short term problem, since the GA isn't preventing the rebuilding of Sol's orbital infrastructure.

The greater EE issue is that an attacker can deliberately kill millions with secondary effects and not have it considered a violation - debris hitting a planet as a result of destroying valid military targets should be considered just as much a violation as deliberately bombarding the planet is.

The real modern day equivalents consider such things to be war crimes, under the category of "installations containing dangerous forces".
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by cthia   » Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:30 am

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GloriousRuse wrote:In three basic responses here: I am generally talking about the main line books, as those tend to be the ones most responsible for defining the universe (beyond the malign introduction)...though I’d consider any off-shoot of sufficient severity.


1) The “Setbacks” have no actual consequence, they merely create the mask of one.

A) Eliazabeth is on the throne. And the incoming government and change of monarch caused transition problems, a shake out of the court based on the re-aligning favor, her inexperience showing through in the operation of her duties, and public and foreign confidence in the new leader required time and effort...which president was it that said it really takes a year before you even know where the bathrooms in the whitehouse are?

But, no, not actually. None of that happened. Instead, we get a perfect continuation of government from a character who is virtually a carbon copy of her predecessor. And then an extraordinarily successful round of foreign affairs that she helps spearhead. Not really a setback is it?

B) Oyster bay. Yes, the numbers are large, and much writing goes into decrying just how awful it is. Funnily enough, the SEM doesn’t suffer in the slightest. There is no drop in combat readiness. The economy tools along just fine. The entire industrial base is transferred to a foreign power seamlessly. Literally in the same book that we are being told Buccaneer has effectively knocked neutral systems back decades, centuries, we’re hearing “don’t worry, our recovery estimates say six months”...and we’re still magically rich too!”.

No actual setback occurred.

C) One Nike left. And the RMN has steamrolled everyone anyhow. And maintained enough light units to patrol their new empire. And even their older heavy cruisers are sufficient to drive the next competing powers missile hit rate down to under 3% while they can drive a packet of missiles wherever they please. Oh, and despite the largest naval losses in history at 1st manticore, and oyster bay, the RMN is still pumping units out to the point where a few squadrons of Nikes represent a marginal loss of combat power. Besides writing how tragic it is, I fail to see the issue?

D) Treecats. The vaunted treecat genocide ends with the SEM getting free nano-tech identifying telepath bodyguards for everyone. This is a setback?

E) Tricked into going to war...which has left them as the reigning super-power in the Universe. And has yet to have a consequenced effect of any scale beyond “I’m killing some people so we can feel righteous”. Practically zero tactical losses. OB has effectively been ignored. Lacoon cutting both ways because the SL was the manties biggest potential trade market? Of course not!

It all adds up to the equivalent of writing “and then Rocky got punched in the face really hard, so hard that the evil scientists said it was many Newton’s more than anyone had ever been punched, but he was Rocky so his noble chin did not so much as waver, his eye did not black, and he was filled by the cold steely vengeance of the morally upstanding after briefly thinking of Adrienne. He then knocked his opponent senseless with one jab”


2) Of Reaping and Sowing - TO BE CONTINUED


A. There is no way to measure how much momentum was lost with King Roger's untimely death, and what secrets, ideas and plans may have died with him.

You also seem to be forgetting Beth's powerbase being diluted much more than her father's, and it's consequence, namely, her losing battles against the Lords. Which led to the drawdown of the navy, which helped enable Beatrice in the first place.

B. That damn metric system! I'm ashamed of you for these points. You can't use metric tools to weigh the loss of life vs metal. In two different species, I might add.

Also, had it not been for OB, the silly sollies never would have attacked. There'd have been a huge surplus of Apollo missiles, and new ships available to carry those missiles, then everyone's ass would have been fried, SLN and RHN. Without the need for another alliance.

As far as the economy, remember textev states there was so much money available to Manticore she had to invest in everything under the sun. A surplus of cash can cause problems to your economy. So, the fight with the League and all it entails actually supplied a tunnel to funnel the huge surplus of cash that has now become a cushion. Economics of war. Some say war is created to solve problems, therefore it's not unthinkable that an enemy can solve some of your problems by picking a fight with you. Hey, when Mike took her gloves off, the RMN got to see for certain how much of the weight the huge gorilla was carrying was fat or lean.

C. Well, not steamrolled. That's what would have happened after the ships in the building slips which were destroyed were complete, and loaded with all of those godawful missiles the Malign interrupted.

D. Of course it was a setback. Losing life is always an immeasurable setback. You're not asking the Treecats. Also, if not for OB, many more Treecats would be available to help defeat the Malign.

You're making the same mistake as the Malign who failed to understand the old adages, "for every reaction there may be an equal and opposite reaction." And my favorite, "people who make trouble get more than their share." Against a powerful entity, those notions are greatly magnified.

E. Equal and opposite reaction. Besides, the loss of life is, again, immeasurable. Why are you discounting the loss of life? The pain and the grief. Beth was willing to swallow the men and women lost to that lunatic Byng for a mere apology. But nooooo. She had to swallow her father's assassination and the attempt at her own life. She and her entire navy had to swallow the helplessness they felt at not being able to protect the many civilian lives lost in OB, human and Treecat, and forever having to live with it, from an attack on the most powerful and technologically advanced navy in the galaxy.

You can't measure the loss of momentum and the intangibles. And personal loss. And sanity. Poor Honor almost lost her phucking mind in the Sol system, and Beth is almost bald from pulling her hair out. Her booty has been diminished and she is left pinching pennies and can no longer afford twenty hairdressers but only ten. LOL

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by fallsfromtrees   » Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:00 pm

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cthia wrote:snip
You're making the same mistake as the Malign who failed to understand the old adages, "for every reaction there may be an equal and opposite reaction." And my favorite, "people who make trouble get more than their share." Against a powerful entity, those notions are greatly magnified.


Or my favorite Donald Hamilton quote "If you open the door to violence, you have no complaints coming if more violence than you expected walks through it"
========================

The only problem with quotes on the internet is that you can't authenticate them -- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by cthia   » Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:14 pm

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Another thing, because of the difference in population densities, Manticoran deaths tended to ravage entire families. Yet, she still can't catch a break.

I know the galaxy isn't fair, but must she also be cruel?

Stockholm Syndrome? I was being nice . . .

Traitors. Benedict Arnolds. :lol:

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:45 pm

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cthia wrote:Why didn't the Peep's abandon their heavy energy armaments in favor of more missile tubes? Quite frankly, there was a point I thought all but a couple of energy batteries made sense. Didn't Grayson wake up and champion a ship class with few energy weapons?

There's some separation issues that limit how densely you can pack a broadside with missile tubes - so there will always be some "wasted" space between them were you can fit some non-missile weapon. Arguably you should be swapping out energy mounts for more PDLCs - but you can't swing too far towards swapping mounts for tubes.

The Graysons did start reducing the number of energy mounts they carried - replacing several smaller ones with a single heavier one. Best examples are probably their Alvarez-class CA (based off the Star Knight) and Courvosier-class BCs (based of the Reliant)

Compared to the older (and slightly smaller) Star Knight the Graysons Alvarez gave up 6 lasers in their broadside, and instead mounted a pair of additional grasers (plus all 5 of their broadside grasers were heavier than those of a Star Knight). They also squeezed in 2 more broadside missile tubes - while carrying exactly the same PDLC & CM fit. OTOH the Alvarez was also 14k-tons heavier; with 8m of additional length which would have helped fit those extra tubes.

And over the older Reliant the Courvosier gave up 8 lasers for a pair of additional grasers (plus, again, making all 8 grasers heavier). On an extra 26k-tons and 7m of length they also squeezed in 4 more tubes, 6 more PDLC mounts, and 6 more CM tubes.

So the BC had more weight gain, and more added weapons, but either way you can see that the change to fewer, heavier, energy mounts wasn't leading to massive increases in missile tubes. They did it to make the energy batteries overall more effective; not to free up space for more missiles.

GloriousRuse wrote:Which is another BS manty magic pass. Pretending WMD actions aren’t in play once you’ve tangled with the SL. Of course they are. The SL are the only people restraining them. And the MAlign has every interest in genociding the SEM and part of original core in an orgy of planet killing to clear the board and pose the RF as the new sane security option in town.
Though the Edict was created because genocidal attack pissed off the League public enough that they did an end-around the entire League government and added it as a constitutional amendment. You think that the descendant of that population is now totally apathetic to those same attacks?

Can the League government be confident that if word gets out that they've embraced wholesale genocidal tactics that that they won't be toppled in a fairly spontaneous internal revolt of the masses (and large number of member worlds)? (even ignoring the MAD you already touched on)

That, even if they have no moral qualms about embracing a war of extinction or horror over League worlds that might die in response, is likely to keep WMDs mostly off the table.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by cthia   » Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:52 am

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Who are all ye people? Has the O'Hanrahan DNA been cloned and seeded throughout the Galaxy?

Is the MA trying to get everyone talking to the 'hans?

Will the sinister Mesan Alignment be successful in throwing the entire Galaxy off-kilter?

Stay tuned . . .

saaaame bat time, saaaame bat station

for the clue.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by GloriousRuse   » Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:45 pm

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Re: WMD/EEV. In an environment like this, the ability to set redlines effectively is an excellent strategic tool.

To use a modern analogy (it has some drift, but you can see the intent), the US and UK are both nuclear powers capable of executing near genocide against any given nation. Both have democratic bases that are of course horrified by this and would never say, sanction nuking a small middle eastern nation flat over vaguely understood politics.

However, if said nation could suddenly put a fleet off-shore from DC or London, with field armies ready to land, the national view on “is it ok to nuke our enemies into oblivion” would probably change very quickly. Because this is no longer an imperial war of policy, it is a very real thing with very real consequences for the electorate being shoved in their faces.

When you create a red line, you are telling your opponent “this is where we’ve crossed from playing the great game into existential crisis, and at that point you can expect WMD war”. There’s a good deal of gray area on the fringes where people wonder about bluffs, but no one really thinks US divisions could drive to Moscow or Beijing without starting a nuclear war.

The SL has a very easily justifiable -domestically and internationally - red line in the core. You attack the core, this goes nuclear. Which I have a feeling all but the most deliberately morally outraged in the core would approve of. Sure, college students might lament Sollie imperialism, but a Manty fleet wrecking their industry isn’t going to be met with rueful “ah, yes, but we deserve it”.

So the SL can and should simply trap the SEM in a game where they can only win small stakes, but might lose big ones. But apparently even high school level deterrence theory doesn’t exist in the honorverse, because it would disadvantage the SEM.
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