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Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?

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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by GloriousRuse   » Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:40 am

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I hardly think the manticore wormhole counts as all the choke points in the world for this analogy. It’s not every wormhole everywhere in human space. But that aside:

For you to make money controlling a choke point, you basically need to charge tolls/fees/taxes or give your merchants preferential treatment (or both). If it’s tolls, that means other people’s stuff needs to come through or enough of your domestic stuff has to go out. Which when you remove what is literally somewhere above 80% of the galactic market which you used to count on to provide those fees - well, your chokepoint isn’t making much money. Ask the Turks how much they made off the straits during WWI when Russia was an enemy.

If you’re giving your own merchants a price advantage, they still need to actually buy, sell, or at least transport other people’s stuff, somewhere. Only you now can’t do that in the overwhelming majority of the market that you used to work in. So your price advantage doesn’t matter.

Either way, from a revenue generation stand point, you still need a market to work with. Simply owning the Panama Canal doesn’t make you rich unless people can use it, and the manties made sure own a tawdry pittance of their former trade can use it.

Plus the vast loss carriage and trade revenues in the league.

If Manticore is supposed to be Great Britain, this is the equivalent of them voluntarily accepting the continental system, stopping trade with the majority of their empire and it’s bordering areas, and thinking it’ll be ok because they can still trade with post-revolutionary America and Canada.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by Theemile   » Wed Dec 25, 2019 12:47 am

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GloriousRuse wrote:I hardly think the manticore wormhole counts as all the choke points in the world for this analogy. It’s not every wormhole everywhere in human space. But that aside:

For you to make money controlling a choke point, you basically need to charge tolls/fees/taxes or give your merchants preferential treatment (or both). If it’s tolls, that means other people’s stuff needs to come through or enough of your domestic stuff has to go out. Which when you remove what is literally somewhere above 80% of the galactic market which you used to count on to provide those fees - well, your chokepoint isn’t making much money. Ask the Turks how much they made off the straits during WWI when Russia was an enemy.

If you’re giving your own merchants a price advantage, they still need to actually buy, sell, or at least transport other people’s stuff, somewhere. Only you now can’t do that in the overwhelming majority of the market that you used to work in. So your price advantage doesn’t matter.

Either way, from a revenue generation stand point, you still need a market to work with. Simply owning the Panama Canal doesn’t make you rich unless people can use it, and the manties made sure own a tawdry pittance of their former trade can use it.

Plus the vast loss carriage and trade revenues in the league.

If Manticore is supposed to be Great Britain, this is the equivalent of them voluntarily accepting the continental system, stopping trade with the majority of their empire and it’s bordering areas, and thinking it’ll be ok because they can still trade with post-revolutionary America and Canada.


He was pretty much quoting David when he said that. David has compared the Manticore junction to all the major maritime chokepoints combines on several occasions, including discussions about laocoon.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Dec 25, 2019 9:50 am

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GloriousRuse wrote:I hardly think the manticore wormhole counts as all the choke points in the world for this analogy. It’s not every wormhole everywhere in human space. But that aside:

For you to make money controlling a choke point, you basically need to charge tolls/fees/taxes or give your merchants preferential treatment (or both). If it’s tolls, that means other people’s stuff needs to come through or enough of your domestic stuff has to go out. Which when you remove what is literally somewhere above 80% of the galactic market which you used to count on to provide those fees - well, your chokepoint isn’t making much money. Ask the Turks how much they made off the straits during WWI when Russia was an enemy.

If you’re giving your own merchants a price advantage, they still need to actually buy, sell, or at least transport other people’s stuff, somewhere. Only you now can’t do that in the overwhelming majority of the market that you used to work in. So your price advantage doesn’t matter.

Either way, from a revenue generation stand point, you still need a market to work with. Simply owning the Panama Canal doesn’t make you rich unless people can use it, and the manties made sure own a tawdry pittance of their former trade can use it.

Plus the vast loss carriage and trade revenues in the league.

If Manticore is supposed to be Great Britain, this is the equivalent of them voluntarily accepting the continental system, stopping trade with the majority of their empire and it’s bordering areas, and thinking it’ll be ok because they can still trade with post-revolutionary America and Canada.


I'm not disagreeing. Manticore closing off the wormholes (not just the MWHJ) to any Solarian traffic is crashing the Solarian economy, but pulling its merchants from the League is crashing the Manticoran one. It's not a sustainable situation indefinitely. The question was only who would throw the towel first.

The Mandarins almost got away with it by amending the Constitution. If it weren't for Operations Buccaneer and Fabius, the GA wouldn't have undertaken the Battle of Sol (at least not so soon) and forced the surrender by military means. So, in fact, the MAlign prompted the early end of the war, in diametrically opposite ends of their actual objectives.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by Brigade XO   » Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:18 pm

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Not pulling out the MMM with Lacoon I would have left all those ships, their crews (and passengers who were SEM citizens) as 1) hostages of the League and 2) the ships themselves could have been seized and turned over to the SLN for fleet logistics.

Lacoon worked - as far as we know, nobody in the League siezed any MMM ship. Saltash did, the Gov was looking to make points with the League and OFS, but we have not been told of any ship which did not safely leave League space.
Also, we have not been told of any ship other than at Saltash that was seized.

Ok, we didn't get any word that any MMM ships were taken or destroyed in Bucaneer operations, which were after both Lacoon I and II were well along, but that might just be not filling in detail.
You know that if they had taken any, the Mandarins would have used them for leverage.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by kzt   » Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:53 pm

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Well, as demonstrated in all the recent books, Manticorans are incapable of error. So duh, of course it worked.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by cthia   » Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:55 am

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SharkHunter wrote:This thread has been a really fun read, for someone who has been away from the forum for a long time. I particularly liked the point in the thread where the comparison to the USN vs the IJN got going, because the poster's thoughts and even counterarguments are all close to the mark.

I'm not quite in the "root against Manticore" crowd, but I am definitely still in the "Prichart's Haven" crowd. In the Honorverse future history, they save Manticore's butt in a very similar way to how the USN helped the Royal Navy emerge victorious in the North Atlantic.

Where I stopped rooting for the writing comes where some of the later battle sequences is that the RMN commanders in the various actions correctly predict the opp force's psych and tactical moves early enough to guarantee a near-painless win.

Earlier in the series at least Honor, et. al. were building up their winning credentials, but making mistakes in the process. Haven command staff, likewise. For example, in OBS, Coglin realizes he should have waited to blow his panels until Fearless was in energy range; in HotQ, Honor realizes they should have pursued Saladin/Thunder of God immediately. Theisman and Tourville, etc. survive early actions because they act honorably, but they score wins against the RMN rather frequently as well.

Even as late as the Torch books, both opp forces still make enough mistakes that while we can (in theory) predict a protagonist win (AKA Torch wasn't going to get Eridani'd into smithereens), it is not a win without sacrifice. Same for the ground actions on Mesa, etc.

In contrast, in the later books, the MAlign's murderous nukes always accomplish their goal... except that Manticore doesn't die. Bolthole isn't penetrated, Honor survives. We don't see the A line assassins going up against Thandi Palane.

RMN wise, the task group, etc. often don't even get their paint scratched. An example, I wouldn't have minded Lessem's victory at the Prime/Ajay terminus if they'd stopped the Buccaneer side, but been driven off the terminus with significant losses. It's a tactical stalemate but some very smart SLN naval personnel survive. The SLN gets to cut the line of wormholes, but can't do anything about it so it becomes a race to see who can hold the bridgehead, etc. etc. etc. while trying to get word of the improvements to the other side's tech improvements in time to use them. Isotalo's forces have Huskies, but no similar forces are deployed far enough out to protect Hyperion One? Hmmm...

Similarly, I would have much rather learned the outcome at Hypatia by having the next set of RMN forces arrive and not be able to find Kotouč's ships, a whole lot of ship wreckage -- and then get a message from HMS Angrim saying "we're the only ship left". We don't immediately find out who's alive or dead... I'd have had them arrive in Manticore post-Beowulf, just prior to the Grand Fleet making the payoff when Honor meets Commander Peterson more valuable, without changing Honor's inner darkness enough to stop the Juggernaut. Get around to rewarding HMS Angrim and Kotouč's other ships with their names on the List of Honor, future wedding plans can then be discussed, etc. in the denouement.

Finally, Grayson seems to have disappeared as mattering a damn except following Abigail Hearns around the galaxy. I'd rather know that they're rebuilding the Blackbird Yards and building what we might call a "vengeance force" to go after the MAlign under Michael Mayhew's direction, maybe some MAlign scheming as they running to Darius to get a bridgehead at Masada, etc. Maybe Grayson signs an attack pact with Torch? and now the race is on to see who gets to knife range first...

My thoughts? Authorial fatigue. Your thoughts?

Now, this post and Bert's post below, I can understand. There's no real need to bash Manticore, or root against them.

But I can understand wanting the battles to be just a tad bit more... more... damn, what possible word is appropriate considering the gap in tech and experience?

However, I once asked for the battles to be harder as well, but as a result of some Solly CO being good enough to make the list or at least honorable mention. I know there's only one Honor in the galaxy, but in the whole of the League there isn't at least a Theisman or a Tourville, or a Giscard? A Shannon aboard one of the Solly ships would have been interesting as well.

At the very least, I expected Honor to go up against an accomplished tactician when she entered Sol Central.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by cthia   » Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:14 am

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bert953 wrote:I agree that the anti-Manty rants seem overdone. As stated, they were attacked by Haven, they did endure the High Ridge govt., Havens attack on the Manticore system & Oyster Bay. These were followed by the MAligns manipulating the Sollys into a shooting engagement by manipulating their leadership including the Mandarins into acting out their arrogance against neo-barbs. Case buccaneer & parthan shot were SLN erandi edict violations, and Manticore was again subject to an attempted invasion by Admiral Filaretta. Only when the Beowulf civilian orbital habitats were destroyed, did the calculus change so that the GA invaded Sol. My understanding (as a civilian who has never served in the military) is that wars are the result of failed politics. One of the ways wars end is when enough troops and/or civilians get killed, the politicians lose their power base and are FORCED to surrender; ie. Hiroshima & Nagasaki.

It makes no sense to invade Sol and then leave the infrastructure intact so that the next group of filthy politicians (they are all filthy aren't they) can immediately start working on rebuilding their Navy with no real change in their corrupt ways. It sounds to me as if some readers just dont like the Manties any more, because the recent books were "military porn". I beg to differ. One of my favorite books is A rising thunder, which is were the conflict with the Sollies really starts to take shape. Not just the space battles, but the politics and the human cost of those politics is edpecially engaging and adds depth to the Honorverse (as well as Safehold).

I am really, really looking forward to the next layers of the onion being peeled, because the MAlign has invested in some serious bad Karma for themselves. There's nothing like seeing a bully take some of the medicine they enjoyed dishing out, with interest.

For certain, the anti-Manty rants are overdone and misplaced.

Would anyone want Honor to be a Peep? A Solarian?

As far as Honor not completely laying waste to the League, I think it was a rare moment where function follows form. Manticore's true colors shone through. They remain true to themselves. It is the goodwill gained from their morals, scruples and values that got them to where they are in the first place. Human restraint.

I also think the author is setting the stage for the momentous clash with the MA, namely . . .

if you can't beat 'em, join 'em!
Just like Eloise realized.

The League is left to later join the GA in the universe's fight with the real villain who won't be just business as usual. If the Sols are knocked back too much, they might be useless in the fight against the MA, and they'd be powerless to protect themselves.

Honor was simply respecting her own Harrington Doctrine in one last gesture.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by Brigade XO   » Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:47 am

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Perhaps the best active duty SLN officer is the guy commanding the BC squadron that was ordered to take the merchant ship through the wormhole at Zunkers, Rear Admiral Liam Pyun. He has experience, he is not particularly happy with what he has been required to do over the years in FF to support dictators and the messes OFS have made to expand their grip on systems. He also has been paying attention to what has been going on- of such information and reports that he has been had- and would rather not get eveybody in his command killed because one of the OFS Governors wants to make points with the home office by standing up against the RMN's closing of the wormholes to SL shipping.
He gets a demonstration of RMN technology & capability and makes the quite reasonable decision that this isn't a good day to die....and that somebody really ought to get this information back to where it can be usefull. He is the ONLY ONE so far in the SLN at this point in the plot line that has had a less than compleatly fatal or forced to surrender encounter with the RMN AND he has the sensor data to back up what he can report.
So, although he got removed through the machinations of the OFS Governor who sent him on the mission (he didn't get himself killed and, through not loosing his ships by backing down made the Governor look bad) he's still alive and Kingsford would do well to at least bring him in for a conversation now that the SLN needs a lot of changes and work.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:52 am

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cthia wrote:However, I once asked for the battles to be harder as well, but as a result of some Solly CO being good enough to make the list or at least honorable mention. I know there's only one Honor in the galaxy, but in the whole of the League there isn't at least a Theisman or a Tourville, or a Giscard? A Shannon aboard one of the Solly ships would have been interesting as well.

At the very least, I expected Honor to go up against an accomplished tactician when she entered Sol Central.


We did get to see some Solly sensor operator that could have become a Shannon. He was at Meyers screaming as loudly as he dared (so, not much) that the data was flawed and that there must have been something about those Manticoran rumours. Except he died with Byng.

As for a gifted tactician, there may very well be. The problem is that Theisman wasn't the Theisman we know yet during First Yeltsin or the Battle of Blackbird. He was just one more Lt. Cmdr.. Sure, he's someone Alfredo Yu had taken an interest in. There may be hundreds of those in the SLN.

But without actual conflict to hone their skills on, they don't get to become Theisman, Tourville, Giscard, Truman or McKeon. The latent talent won't make up for the huge difference not just in tech, but also in experience between the forces. In one corner, you've got a gifted young Captain (J.G. or S.G.) who's never commanded a squadron in his life and has always served under politically-skilled but a tactically dunce flag officers, working with just arrived Cataphract-C missiles. In the other, you've got a battle-hardened Manticoran or Havenite officer, who's been in dozens of battles and has been in constant operations since he left OCS fifteen years ago and has attended the premier institution in the galaxy for tactics, the Crusher, using the best war machines ever produced. Additionally, the Solly officer's crews are equally inexperienced, but also sceptical, arrogant and unwilling to listen, while the Manty/Havenite crews are experienced and capable.

So yeah, no wonder these hundreds of SLN officers didn't shine.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by cthia   » Thu Dec 26, 2019 9:55 am

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@ ThinksMarkedly . . .

Indeed to all of your points. As I said, what word would be appropriate with the huge chasm in tech and experience. But, in another thread floating about, I suggested the experience, hence tactical brains might come from the true SLN, FF. I was hoping Honor would somehow end up against a respectable tactician from FF, who somehow ended up in the hotseat during Zero Hour in the Sol System.

Of all the officers in the GA to clone, the Sollies really needed an Esther McQueen -- someone who can make bricks without straw, or God.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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