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Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?

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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by bert953   » Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:46 pm

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The thing is Lacoon I's success is another issue with the story at this point. Suddenly we find out that the gigantic League is economically dependent on Manticore to the extent that pulling their ships out puts the League at an imminent risk of financial collapse, while Manticore can apparently get along fine without that trade.[/quote]

A valid point, how did the Manties get control of so much of the carry trade? Perhaps a short story describing the events that led to this will come out. As to why they are still solvent, remember that they now have new markets in the Talbot Quadrant, Erwon, Haven & perhaps even the Andermani. Oh yes, likely in the Verge & the Shell too. Sorry my galactic geography isnt up to par so Im not sure where all these politys are located. In Safehold, smuggling was rampant after the church embargoed Charisian goods, so Im sure that it occurred in the Honorverse as well. In fact, smuggling was interdicted in a On Basilisk Station, when we first met Capt. Harrington
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by kzt   » Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:50 pm

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They charge a LOT less on RMMM ships than on other people's ship for wormhole transit. That's how.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by Eyal   » Tue Dec 24, 2019 1:06 am

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bert953 wrote:A valid point, how did the Manties get control of so much of the carry trade? Perhaps a short story describing the events that led to this will come out. As to why they are still solvent, remember that they now have new markets in the Talbot Quadrant, Erwon, Haven & perhaps even the Andermani. Oh yes, likely in the Verge & the Shell too. Sorry my galactic geography isnt up to par so Im not sure where all these politys are located. In Safehold, smuggling was rampant after the church embargoed Charisian goods, so Im sure that it occurred in the Honorverse as well. In fact, smuggling was interdicted in a On Basilisk Station, when we first met Capt. Harrington


They were, however, already trading with Ehrewon and the Andermani. I find it difficult to believe that they could generate sufficient trade with the available new markets - remember that the Talbot Sector and the Verge (and if they were carrying such a large proportion of the SL's trade, I'd expect them to already be trading with the Cerge) are not particularly developed economically - to make up and even eclipse the loss of income from the SL (and do so very rapidly, to boot).
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue Dec 24, 2019 7:03 am

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Manticore has had been a very active and successful merchant marine for centuries. They also (partialy because of the problems we get from the backstory of Axelrod etc trying to capture the system because of the wormhole Manticore didn't yet know about) have built up a strong navy to protect that merchant fleet. Some of that deals with the difficulties of corruption and pirace in Silesia- yet another problem of a failed government/political system of the Confederation apparently created by the Alignment as well.

To deal with creating a navy, Manticore pushed ahead with creating the industry and technology base to build their own warships. Part of that was helped by people who 1st purchased commercial ships and then invested in the industries to build more of them at home. As so many systems (think countries) have found, not only is having the capacity to build your own ships a major advantage in getting what you need, in order to build/maintain/improve/expand that capacity you are going to have to find a market outside of your home nation for at least part of the things you build. Manticore had to aquire the tech and and then capasity to build impellers, fusion reactors, etc and the funding to get to the building your own warship components was supported by building the same types of items for the civilian market. That had to include the export market.

MMM has several advantages that have built up over the years. One- a major one- is that they now have the Junction and Manticorian ships have a significant discount on the fees charged for using the Junction which gives them a cost advantage in pricing vs everybody else. Ok, there are also priceing discounts for favored trading partners and allies but most of the rest of the Galaxy pays full fares.
Another is that Manticore has been an exporter of all sorts of commercial/consumer goods which can mean that their products can be compeditive in various markets (Silesia, and anywhere else the Junction services also based on distance & shipping time against what comes from things like the Core Worlds.
Manticore has also taken a strong and very pro-active positon on supporting and protecting it merchant shipping. Diplomaticaly as well as through military commerce protection, the Star Kingdom defends and buffers it shipping and Manticorian companies against all sorts of difficulties. Mostly we have seen them protecting against abuses by SLN or OFS individuals or clients who are always looking for "a piece of the action" or fines & fees for doing business.
It also helps that there has been a major participation by former/retired RMN personal who have gone into commercial shipping related business including owning or crewing said merchant ships. In general, dealing with any MMM ship or their import/export or service companies, the clients get good service, quality operations and a definite lack of "complications" and costs that seem to arise in places where somebody's hand is always out for a fee-for-service or "gift" to get things done. That same set of military and professional merchant marine ethos and practicality also will mean that the ships are well maintained and run.
Note that at least a couple of large shipping companies lease or contract with MMM ships- with crews- rather than buy and maintain a number of their own ships. Why, apparently it costs less between operating expences and things like Juction fees.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:31 pm

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bert953 wrote:The thing is Lacoon I's success is another issue with the story at this point. Suddenly we find out that the gigantic League is economically dependent on Manticore to the extent that pulling their ships out puts the League at an imminent risk of financial collapse, while Manticore can apparently get along fine without that trade.


A valid point, how did the Manties get control of so much of the carry trade? Perhaps a short story describing the events that led to this will come out. As to why they are still solvent, remember that they now have new markets in the Talbot Quadrant, Erwon, Haven & perhaps even the Andermani. Oh yes, likely in the Verge & the Shell too. Sorry my galactic geography isnt up to par so Im not sure where all these politys are located. In Safehold, smuggling was rampant after the church embargoed Charisian goods, so Im sure that it occurred in the Honorverse as well. In fact, smuggling was interdicted in a On Basilisk Station, when we first met Capt. Harrington[/quote]

I do think it's a valid point too: Manticore could not likely hold its merchant fleet away from the SL for too long and still finance the war effort. Sure, there was a brand new market of 300 worlds to trade with in the form of the Republic of Haven and newly independent systems, but that's at best 30% as much as it would be in the SL.

However, I disagree on Lacoön I's economic impact. It did disrupt the Solly economy, but it was Lacoön II that brought it to the brink of collapse. Now, not only did the Solarian merchant ships need to carry what the RMMS didn't, they had to do it the long way around, which means a lot less carrying capacity. If Manticore was responsible for 20% of the carrying capacity and the remaining ships need to travel on average twice as long, you've reduced the capacity to 40% of its previous levels. If it's 3x the time, which is very likely, we're talking about an overall 73% reduction.

Finally, note it's not the entire economy, but the federal budget. The Solarian Constitution forbade direct taxation, so they taxed only trade. If you reduce that to less than a quarter the original value (don't forget freighters taken up from trade and pressed into service!) and you blow up your budget with wartime footing, you can see how that created a problem.

Which is exactly the buttons Manticore needed to push.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by GloriousRuse   » Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:53 pm

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Well, I have to admit I like 5's plan. Basically it uses the fleet in being to allow us to slice off bits and pieces all while forcing the manty government to actually commit to an offensive war if they want in, with both the strategic and tactical benefits that brings.

--------------

@Thinks

There's an old thread around here somewhere about economy sizes. Suffice to say the Core Worlds are by themselves such a vast market that not trading there represents a loss of revenue that the entire SKM/PRH focused region can't match, let alone the loss of access to the other SL markets. Which wouldn't be an issue if it weren't already established that manty merchants carry some obscene proportion of that trade, meaning the manty revenue stream is very much tied to not being kept out. Manticores continued fantastic wealth is an many cases just "Miracle Manties are Magnificent" with thin rationale. It's somewhat akin to writing alternate historical fiction where the Third Reich doesn't have to worry about oil because of a secret synthetic fuel plant somewhere.

And of course, modern economies are much like cars. Removing half the parts doesn't leave you with a half-useful car.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:25 pm

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Lacoon I and II had the effect of slamming the movement of goods and people within the SL.
With 1st the capasity of the MMM removed from the trade and then the blocking of SL flagged ships from using the Junction ---then the RMN denying at least any SL (but effectively not allowing any but their or their allies to use them) ANY of the wormholes taken in Lacoon II, a massive amount of goods just stalled at whatever port or transfer station it they were at. Same with people.
Where there were non MMM shipping that had any hold capacity on existing routes, that could only provide a small amount of relief to the backlog. Then the SLN called in it's TUFT obligations and any merchant Taken Up From Trade to privide logistic support to SLN was removed from the possible carrying capasity for the civilian market.
Was anybody going to starve- well, eventually. Not general populations but certainly all the people who depended on making or using or anywhere in the logistics framework where the goods and people didn't move.
As noted by the Mandarins and more than one SLN officer, this was economic warfare. The tax/fee revenues of the SL government crashed.

While it becomes a matter of perspective, Manticore was realisticly faced with only two options when the Mandarins etc refused to even respond to the complaints about SLN attacks etc. One was to use the Lacoon I and II to "get their attention" by shutting off their money supply and putting a trade stranglehold on the SL economy. The second was going to war with the League....and that wasn't any kind of good option.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by kzt   » Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:54 pm

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GloriousRuse wrote:There's an old thread around here somewhere about economy sizes. Suffice to say the Core Worlds are by themselves such a vast market that not trading there represents a loss of revenue that the entire SKM/PRH focused region can't match, let alone the loss of access to the other SL markets. Which wouldn't be an issue if it weren't already established that manty merchants carry some obscene proportion of that trade, meaning the manty revenue stream is very much tied to not being kept out. Manticores continued fantastic wealth is an many cases just "Miracle Manties are Magnificent" with thin rationale. It's somewhat akin to writing alternate historical fiction where the Third Reich doesn't have to worry about oil because of a secret synthetic fuel plant somewhere.

And of course, modern economies are much like cars. Removing half the parts doesn't leave you with a half-useful car.

Its like this: say you are a small trading nation in the modern world, but one that has a very large merchant fleet. Lets say one day you decide to go to war with the EU. And Russia. And China. And Japan. And india. And the US. And Canada, Australia, Chile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Syria and Brazil. Lets say you totally dominate the rest of world trade. How big is this?
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:28 pm

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kzt wrote:
GloriousRuse wrote:There's an old thread around here somewhere about economy sizes. Suffice to say the Core Worlds are by themselves such a vast market that not trading there represents a loss of revenue that the entire SKM/PRH focused region can't match, let alone the loss of access to the other SL markets. Which wouldn't be an issue if it weren't already established that manty merchants carry some obscene proportion of that trade, meaning the manty revenue stream is very much tied to not being kept out. Manticores continued fantastic wealth is an many cases just "Miracle Manties are Magnificent" with thin rationale. It's somewhat akin to writing alternate historical fiction where the Third Reich doesn't have to worry about oil because of a secret synthetic fuel plant somewhere.

And of course, modern economies are much like cars. Removing half the parts doesn't leave you with a half-useful car.

Its like this: say you are a small trading nation in the modern world, but one that has a very large merchant fleet. Lets say one day you decide to go to war with the EU. And Russia. And China. And Japan. And india. And the US. And Canada, Australia, Chile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Syria and Brazil. Lets say you totally dominate the rest of world trade. How big is this?



Except that you are a small trading nation that controls the Panama canal, the Suez canal, the straight of Gilbraltor, the Bosphorus straight (Turkey), the Denmakrk straight, and a few other choke points.
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Re: Has anyone else decided to root against Manticore?
Post by kzt   » Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:21 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:
Except that you are a small trading nation that controls the Panama canal, the Suez canal, the straight of Gilbraltor, the Bosphorus straight (Turkey), the Denmakrk straight, and a few other choke points.

Sure. But you wont let them use it and they you won’t allow your ships to cone near them. So this provides exactly how much help? How much has Boeing earned on the 737Max in the last few months. Do they make more money with 700 they can’t sell than they could with 200 they couldn’t sell? If they had an infinite supply of unsalable aircraft would this earn them more money than the 700?

I’m sure el Presidente of Paraguay will be glad to take your cut rate goods, bit how many Paraguays and Ethiopias does to take to have a population that overall has as much disposable income as Germany? How many of these size countries does it take to equal the combined population of China and India?

So its basically underware gnomes all the way down.
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