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How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?

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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by cthia   » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:13 am

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kzt wrote:What's the first thing a Manticoran shipping line has to come up with to restart trade with the SL?

Post another $20 billion bond with a SL bank to replace the one they forfeited when they stole their customers cargo. That's per ship, and probably on the low side. Think about the value of cargo of 8 million tons of BMWs.

Wheat is $135 per ton according to the first source I found. That's a billion dollar cargo. For wheat.

Art imitates life.* I wouldn't be surprised if war has become an escape clause in the Honorverse, protecting the shipping companies as well.** Also, other banks outside the League can be courted to secure the loans. Banks are only loyal to profit.

*And life.

**Perhaps a minimum recovery insurance, like the 250,000 secured deposit from your bank regardless of how much you have in there at the time of collapse.

Shouldn't wars also be considered as natural disasters?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:19 pm

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cthia wrote:Shouldn't wars also be considered as natural disasters?

Since they are acts of man, rather than acts of god; they cannot be natural disasters by definition. Even when you point out that it might well be the nature of man to engage in war, that still means they are man made. If Oumuamua had hit HMSS Hephaestus, that would have been a natural disaster.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by cthia   » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:24 pm

cthia
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tlb wrote:
cthia wrote:Shouldn't wars also be considered as natural disasters?

Since they are acts of man, rather than acts of god; they cannot be natural disasters by definition. Even when you point out that it might well be the nature of man to engage in war, that still means they are man made. If Oumuamua had hit HMSS Hephaestus, that would have been a natural disaster.

Of course you are correct. I was simply being facetious in the face of truth - that wars are quite naturally going to occur.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by GloriousRuse   » Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:15 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:

So, yes, MMM is going to be more or less going to be able to jump back into the competition.
Not smoothly but in a big way.



I think it is reasonable to assume that the MMM will return to the competition. I do not think the wealth will be as high as thought, nor that they will return to unimpeded triumph. A more modest return, not a sudden economy revitalizing return.

There will likely be some delays and re-ramping procedures. Think on this: the Manties "at some point" apparently carried 60% of Sollie cargoes (ridiculous when you consider the scale, but maybe this is one where Britain versus Napoleon in Space is trumping). The Sollie shipping market in the Core alone is quite literally 20x larger than the entire verge. Even if the MMM is the sole and only carrier in the verge, they carried at least one Sollie ton for every ton they carried elsewhere; if you went purist on the 60%, it would be 12x tons.

For two years, they have been unable to access somewhere between 50-92% of their former market. How many ships, spacers, officers, could they have kept on for the two years with half or more of their revenue stream gone? How many small lines, independent operators, sub-departments of major lines, have gone bankrupt or been down sized, sold off, and so forth?


The Mantie Commercial Base has Literally Been Destroyed
It is one thing to charge a cargo carrying fee. It is another when you are carrying cheap, high quality, goods from one of the few sources and then raking in the exotic exports of others. With the destruction of Mantie orbtial industry, it looks far more like the first than the second.

Trading in the SL
They MMM certainly will either trade or carry in the New League. However, the New League is not the unified, unuestionable, hihgly secure Pax Romana of yore. It is a fracturing entity undergoing a change of government. If the MMM wants the benefits of the old SL hegemony to keep their costs down, the RMN will be the ones providing it.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by stewart   » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:24 pm

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[quote="GloriousRuse"]

Lets also run on the assumption that because the current Fed-Sol gov is broke - as per Mantie plan - that the act of actually assembling the currency needs to come from somewhere. And that even electronic funds can only travel as fast as data...which means at the speed of interstellar ships.

-----

Noted in UH -- There was PLENTY of cash flow in the League -- in the Member Systems -- but the sources available to the Mandarin's and the SL government were limited due to the tax structure -- no direct taxation -- that was being changed by the Mandarins with a constitutional amendment.

The New League will still need a funds source, but the only effective control on the New League by the member systems is still the purse strings

-- Stewart
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Brigade XO   » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:32 pm

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cthia wrote:
kzt wrote:What's the first thing a Manticoran shipping line has to come up with to restart trade with the SL?

Post another $20 billion bond with a SL bank to replace the one they forfeited when they stole their customers cargo. That's per ship, and probably on the low side. Think about the value of cargo of 8 million tons of BMWs.

Wheat is $135 per ton according to the first source I found. That's a billion dollar cargo. For wheat.

Art imitates life.* I wouldn't be surprised if war has become an escape clause in the Honorverse, protecting the shipping companies as well.** Also, other banks outside the League can be courted to secure the loans. Banks are only loyal to profit.

*And life.

**Perhaps a minimum recovery insurance, like the 250,000 secured deposit from your bank regardless of how much you have in there at the time of collapse.

Shouldn't wars also be considered as natural disasters?


There are so many things we don't know. Like what happened to the cargos that could not be delivered as per contract/charter? It is unlikely the freighter captain or company just dumped the cargo- as in out the hatches- when they got back to Manticore. So what would happen to it? Though there would be penalties for late delivery, it is POSSIBLES that captains could try to transship cargo (probably at the Junction) for non MMM/non SL flagged ship heading back to the SL for delivery- that would be an absoluite nightmare because so much of the shipping within the SL would have just lots route components and you would be consigning cargo to whatever agents claim to be able to schedule some delivery.
One possible solution is that Manticore would have all diverted cargo delivered to some bonded warehouse location either at the Junction or at the terminus the MMM vessel uses to get to the Junction. At least it isn't likely to be stolen -or destroyed- unless SLN hit a particular terminus. At that point, the shipping lines/freight brokers, with the assistance of the GOVERNMENT could send notification to original shipper, purchaser and (as needed) freight agents.
Unlikely Manticore or the MMM ship owners etc would just sell off the cargo, or, seize it and use it as possible for the war. Arguments about shipping costs to get it to where it should of gone is going to be on the Government.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by stewart   » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:37 pm

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[quote="GloriousRuse"]

Lacoon Uber Alles

-----------------

Lancoon II blocked SL hulls, but not SL goods -- if the SL goods were in Manty (or Grayson, Havenite, Beowulf or even Mannerheim) hulls, it got through.

After the OFS is dissolved, the wormholes and warp junctions return to the local systems and become a localized revenue source for those local systems.

That brings up the "semi-dead" horse of what to do with all the x-SLN small-boys. I can see several x-SLN CA's, CL's and DD's becoming the new-commissioned System Defense Forces of the new, independent systems (previously under OFS boot) -- sure beats the alternative of becoming plasma.

-- Stewart
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:14 pm

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GloriousRuse wrote:Lacoon Uber Alles

stewart wrote:Lancoon II blocked SL hulls, but not SL goods -- if the SL goods were in Manty (or Grayson, Havenite, Beowulf or even Mannerheim) hulls, it got through.

After the OFS is dissolved, the wormholes and warp junctions return to the local systems and become a localized revenue source for those local systems.

I do not believe that is true; the Manty merchant ships were ordered back to Manty space as part of Lacoon: reread the beginning of A Rising Thunder where Solarian cargos on Manty ships were NOT being delivered. There is also a good reason why this was done, some sectors trying to use cargo ships as hostages.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by noblehunter   » Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:06 am

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GloriousRuse wrote:
Brigade XO wrote:There will likely be some delays and re-ramping procedures. Think on this: the Manties "at some point" apparently carried 60% of Sollie cargoes (ridiculous when you consider the scale, but maybe this is one where Britain versus Napoleon in Space is trumping). The Sollie shipping market in the Core alone is quite literally 20x larger than the entire verge. Even if the MMM is the sole and only carrier in the verge, they carried at least one Sollie ton for every ton they carried elsewhere; if you went purist on the 60%, it would be 12x tons.


I'm pretty sure the 60% number is cargo that spent some time in a Manty hull. I suspect it was a reasonably common practice to transfer a cargo to an MMM hull in order to transit the Junction, especially as the transit fees were increased.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:30 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:
cthia wrote:



There are so many things we don't know. Like what happened to the cargos that could not be delivered as per contract/charter? It is unlikely the freighter captain or company just dumped the cargo- as in out the hatches- when they got back to Manticore. So what would happen to it? Though there would be penalties for late delivery, it is POSSIBLES that captains could try to transship cargo (probably at the Junction) for non MMM/non SL flagged ship heading back to the SL for delivery- that would be an absoluite nightmare because so much of the shipping within the SL would have just lots route components and you would be consigning cargo to whatever agents claim to be able to schedule some delivery.
One possible solution is that Manticore would have all diverted cargo delivered to some bonded warehouse location either at the Junction or at the terminus the MMM vessel uses to get to the Junction. At least it isn't likely to be stolen -or destroyed- unless SLN hit a particular terminus. At that point, the shipping lines/freight brokers, with the assistance of the GOVERNMENT could send notification to original shipper, purchaser and (as needed) freight agents.
Unlikely Manticore or the MMM ship owners etc would just sell off the cargo, or, seize it and use it as possible for the war. Arguments about shipping costs to get it to where it should of gone is going to be on the Government.


Cargos include fabrication modules. Very useful for rebuilding Manticore and Grayson orbital infrastrucure.
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