Retirement Age in the Honorverse

Vince wrote:It's not just interest rates that have to be positive. It's real interest rates* that have to be positive.

* Real interest rate = Actual interest rate - inflation rate.

Galactic Sapper wrote:Not just that. You have to assume that there will be a LOT of savings chasing investment returns, with significant downward pressure on returns as a result. It may take decades, even centuries for all of society to adapt to the new realities of prolong, but eventually 4% is going to be on the insane side of optimistic. Plan for more along the lines of 0.4% or less, unless the investment is really risky.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:A logical argument. Japan offers a real world example. Manticore's economy would be in deep shit if it could not be mitigated. This might explain why Queen Elizebeth could sell war bonds to pay for the military buildup.

There are more worlds that hold a larger population that require investment just to reach Havenite standards than there are worlds who have surpassed Haven technologically. Heck, that statement would probably be true when compared to Silesia. Once those Protectorates, Vergers and Fringers are full comparable to the core Worlds, then there will be a dearth of investment opportunities. Until then, there are returns available for both the risk averse and the risk takers in the galaxy.

PeterZ wrote:

Vince wrote:It's not just interest rates that have to be positive. It's real interest rates* that have to be positive.

* Real interest rate = Actual interest rate - inflation rate.

Galactic Sapper wrote:Not just that. You have to assume that there will be a LOT of savings chasing investment returns, with significant downward pressure on returns as a result. It may take decades, even centuries for all of society to adapt to the new realities of prolong, but eventually 4% is going to be on the insane side of optimistic. Plan for more along the lines of 0.4% or less, unless the investment is really risky.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:A logical argument. Japan offers a real world example. Manticore's economy would be in deep shit if it could not be mitigated. This might explain why Queen Elizebeth could sell war bonds to pay for the military buildup.

There are more worlds that hold a larger population that require investment just to reach Havenite standards than there are worlds who have surpassed Haven technologically. Heck, that statement would probably be true when compared to Silesia. Once those Protectorates, Vergers and Fringers are full comparable to the core Worlds, then there will be a dearth of investment opportunities. Until then, there are returns available for both the risk averse and the risk takers in the galaxy.

You're forgetting that taxes are generally both simple and low for Manticorans. There is one bit where we find out that income taxes can be done on something the size of a postcard.

And the big tax producer is the Junction. That means the average guy/gal does not directly pay all that much tax.

That simplifies planning for your future.

ldwechsler wrote:

PeterZ wrote:quote="Vince"]
It's not just interest rates that have to be positive. It's real interest rates* that have to be positive.

* Real interest rate = Actual interest rate - inflation rate.

Galactic Sapper wrote:Not just that. You have to assume that there will be a LOT of savings chasing investment returns, with significant downward pressure on returns as a result. It may take decades, even centuries for all of society to adapt to the new realities of prolong, but eventually 4% is going to be on the insane side of optimistic. Plan for more along the lines of 0.4% or less, unless the investment is really risky.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:A logical argument. Japan offers a real world example. Manticore's economy would be in deep shit if it could not be mitigated. This might explain why Queen Elizebeth could sell war bonds to pay for the military buildup.

There are more worlds that hold a larger population that require investment just to reach Havenite standards than there are worlds who have surpassed Haven technologically. Heck, that statement would probably be true when compared to Silesia. Once those Protectorates, Vergers and Fringers are full comparable to the core Worlds, then there will be a dearth of investment opportunities. Until then, there are returns available for both the risk averse and the risk takers in the galaxy.

You're forgetting that taxes are generally both simple and low for Manticorans. There is one bit where we find out that income taxes can be done on something the size of a postcard.

And the big tax producer is the Junction. That means the average guy/gal does not directly pay all that much tax.

That simplifies planning for your future.[/quote]


The SKM/SEM probably has the Honorverse equivalent of the 1040 EZ.

saber964 wrote:The SKM/SEM probably has the Honorverse equivalent of the 1040 EZ.

More like the proposed simple tax form from a decade or so back:

1: How much did you make?

2: How much is left?

Please remit line 2.

PeterZ wrote:

Vince wrote:It's not just interest rates that have to be positive. It's real interest rates* that have to be positive.

* Real interest rate = Actual interest rate - inflation rate.

Galactic Sapper wrote:Not just that. You have to assume that there will be a LOT of savings chasing investment returns, with significant downward pressure on returns as a result. It may take decades, even centuries for all of society to adapt to the new realities of prolong, but eventually 4% is going to be on the insane side of optimistic. Plan for more along the lines of 0.4% or less, unless the investment is really risky.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:A logical argument. Japan offers a real world example. Manticore's economy would be in deep shit if it could not be mitigated. This might explain why Queen Elizebeth could sell war bonds to pay for the military buildup.

There are more worlds that hold a larger population that require investment just to reach Havenite standards than there are worlds who have surpassed Haven technologically. Heck, that statement would probably be true when compared to Silesia. Once those Protectorates, Vergers and Fringers are full comparable to the core Worlds, then there will be a dearth of investment opportunities. Until then, there are returns available for both the risk averse and the risk takers in the galaxy.

I am still struggling to understand what technologically backwards worlds in Silesia and the Fringe have to offer that would make either investment or conquest profitable. The Honorverse does not have sentient, self aware computers. However; the level of automation described (even if the "molycircs" are actually miniturized, mechanical, analog and digital, computers, LOL) suggests that factories and assembly lines don't require many people much less unskilled laborers. There should be no viable niche for "Third World" star systems manufacturing products using sweatshop labor that can then be shipped back to advanced star systems at a profit. There should be no Nike Corporation manufacturing athletic shoes on OFS exploited planets for less than a dollar per pair then shipping them back to SL core worlds where they can be sold for $100 per pair because they are endorsed by some famous professional athlete.

About the only viable export products from primitive worlds should be some foods (Montana free range beef, fish) exotic woods and may be pharmecuticals from plants that may be for some reason can not be synthesized.

Given asteroids andgas giants that can be exploited, I would not even expect mining for either metals or Deuterium to be viable. Aneutronic fusion fuels like Lithium, Boron and Berryllium would be only a remote possibility.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:About the only viable export products from primitive worlds should be some foods (Montana free range beef, fish) exotic woods and may be pharmecuticals from plants that may be for some reason can not be synthesized.

I've been told the biggest non-petroleum export from Russia is most commonly named Natasha.

In several books it as mentioned that many low tech worlds can produce base materials less expensively than Indistrialized Core Worlds. This is true even with interstellar transport using the WHJ network. That aurgues capital and labor cost are enough higher in the Core that it makes more sense to run resources extraction at maximum and buying anything they need above regular demand than investing in intermitant increased production. So Core worlds resource extraction is at capacity and enough base materials are being shipped in from the Protectorates, Verge and Fringe to provide a reliable source for Core Worlds' industry.

Between that and special export items and those poor worlds have captured a sliver of the Core Worlds' aggregate economy. That sliver amounts to huge absolute amount.

They can claim whatever they want. But a honorverse largely automated asteroid processing system is going to produce a vast amount of material every day with a small crew. And it's going to produce it several hours from the destination, not several months and multiple transshipments.

Were talking cubic KM per day level. It's really hard to have a horde of guys in space suits (and the space suits are in themselves not at all cheap) with picks being more cost effective than someone using tractor beams to continuously feed an asteroid into a wedge at tons per second.

Particularly when one of them then needs to pay for a multi-month trip and the other doesn't.

Given that this is far from cutting edge in the Honorverse there is an assumption that the primative planets are using a more primitive version at lower wages, but I still have my doubts.

kzt wrote:They can claim whatever they want. But a honorverse largely automated asteroid processing system is going to produce a vast amount of material every day with a small crew. And it's going to produce it several hours from the destination, not several months and multiple transshipments.

Were talking cubic KM per day level. It's really hard to have a horde of guys in space suits (and the space suits are in themselves not at all cheap) with picks being more cost effective than someone using tractor beams to continuously feed an asteroid into a wedge at tons per second.

Particularly when one of them then needs to pay for a multi-month trip and the other doesn't.

Given that this is far from cutting edge in the Honorverse there is an assumption that the primative planets are using a more primitive version at lower wages, but I still have my doubts.

Actually, the protectorates might have more current tech to manage resource extraction. Those transtellars can invest in effective systems if they know they have a captive market. Captive because those Core Worlds find buying from protectorates easier that expanding extraction systems. Nice low risk investment. Especially if those transtellars don't invest in top of the line safety and life support.

Investment in verge resource extraction will only lower costs more. Given the need for resources by the victims of Buccaneer, raw materials will be desperately needed. Between the lower costs and increased demand for resources along with the increased demand for finished industrial production systems, the Core Worlds would find a better return producing finished goods and letting resource extraction be performed by the Protectorates, Verge and Fringe. Investment in resource extraction expansion will generate smaller returns than investment in producing finished production systems to rebuild Core Worlds and to upgrade the Protectorates and Verge.

So you want to put out of business your low cost local providers, who, btw, VOTE and pay taxes, and instead go to higher cost remote providers who are supposed to be sending a freighter full of raw material every day on a 60 day trip.

As a mental exercise, what happens if they stop sending freighters? How long does it take for you to realize something very bad has happened to organization you are counting on to supply ALL the resources for your entire economy?

Now what do you do? BTW, keep in mind that if you send a warship to investigate it gets treated as a pirate.