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Maya Sector(SPOILER)

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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by ldwechsler   » Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:57 pm

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Louis R wrote:That conclusion is predicated on an assumption about Barregos' plan that I don't think is confirmed in text - nor, of course, is it refuted. To whit, that he wasn't doing anything to create trigger conditions.

There are indications that the original Sepoy rebellion didn't 'just happen'. I see no reason that it's impossible that someone hoping to profit from a reprise would take steps not just to ensure that the reprise didn't end equally badly but would happen at the most profitable moment. Actually, since it's pretty clear that he was taking steps of some kind and had been for a considerable time, I suppose it would be more correct to say that there's no reason not to think they may include steps to ensure that the disaffection he needs is sufficiently widespread. If he's not merely anticipating it but promoting it [or was anticipating doing so in the future, the Malign may not be the only people whose plans had to be accelerated given the outcome of the Havenite Wars], then he could well be planning to set the match to the fuse himself.

Or, of course, he may feel that the disaffection he sees is mounting quite satisfactorily without him needing to meddle. So his decision to light the fuse becomes contingent on the kegs heaping high enough and the necessary ducks being appropriately aligned. Like everybody's decisions are contingent on some factor or other.


Weird Harold wrote:
I think that is a semantic nitpick.

The Sepoy Option was contingent on other people doing certain things, but without doing anything to influence those people into triggering the option into effect.

Not that they were discouraging anyone from being stupid. :D

They were confident enough that the circumstances to trigger secession would come that they prepared to, first, survive and then, second, minimize the damage.


We should understand that we are looking with 20/20 hindsight. An awful lot was not known until almost the last minute. Filareta was already on his way when Prichard made her run to Manticore to give out the news about MAlign. Yes, Z and C had already figured out some elements but there was so much unknown.

Keep in mind people generally do what they figure is good for them. When Maya gradually edged away from the mandarins, they kept things quiet because they didn't know what was going to happen. If there wasn't a mess, the huge disparity in numbers would prove fatal. They didn't have nearly the weaponry of the GA.

That's the way history works.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by stewart   » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:28 pm

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Sigs wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:Australian independence.

https://www.australia.gov.au/about-gove ... federation



I counter with American Independence.Same empire, different time period different outcome.


--------------

Australian / NZ , Canadian and South African independence came as a result of "reward" for support of Brit Empire in multiple wars of late 1800's & esp WWI;
AND that Victoria's PM's had a better grasp on reality than Geo III.

-- Stewart
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by ldwechsler   » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:42 pm

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Sigs wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:Australian independence.



I counter with American Independence.Same empire, different time period different outcome.

--------------

Australian / NZ , Canadian and South African independence came as a result of "reward" for support of Brit Empire in multiple wars of late 1800's & esp WWI;
AND that Victoria's PM's had a better grasp on reality than Geo III.

-- Stewart


Note also that the people ruling those places tended to look like standard Brits. They were not as generous with Indians or Africans.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by OrlandoNative   » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:54 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:
The technology that Barregos had access to via Erewhon was end-of-first-war technology, and not all of it. He didn't know about Spindle when he started his own military buildup. Even so, end-of-first-war Manticoran technology is plenty good enough to give Solarian tech a really bad day. See the Battle of Torch - even with Cataphracts the combined obsolete Havenite and current Solarian ships were overmatched.

As far as Spindle is concerned, those were SD(P) pods with Mark 23 missiles and a Mark 25 control missile. They were also using Ghost Rider drones to cut the light-speed communication lag in half. Even so, they were probably limited by the number of control links they had, or they could have blown Crandall's entire formation into navigation hazards in one launch, rather than just a third of them.

As far as the MAlign connection is concerned, Barregos didn't need to know about it. All he needed was to be able to see the results off their manipulations. It didn't matter that he didn't see the manipulator behind the scene. He knew the wheels were coming off.

That's not quite true. The *Manticoran* based technology Erewon had access to was; indeed; from the first part of the war; but since Erewon had mutual treaties with Haven; it would likely have had access to anything *they* had developed since then as well.

Even Havenite technology - though not as good as Manticore's - was at least orders of magnitude better than that of the SLN.

As for Ghost Rider - those were available (though I'll grant in somewhat lesser capability form) back before Erewon broke with Manticore and allied with Haven.

And don't forget Moriarty for pod control. That was Haven-developed as well.

So Barregos had some basis for optimism should Operation Sepoy ever go into affect.

I will grant that he didn't have to have any knowledge of the MAlign itself as far as determining if the time was right - or at least good; indeed just seeing the results of their actions would have been all the information he really needed.
"Yield to temptation, it may not pass your way again."
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by OrlandoNative   » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:03 pm

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munroburton wrote:The League's unique constitutional arrangements mean that once a Verge system had paid their protectorate "fees" and become a full member, they are theoretically equal to, for example, Beowulf in autonomy and member rights. Including the right to secede and the right to raise a self-defense force.

I get the feeling that a "new" full membership in the League wasn't something that happened often - if at all; at least in the more current time period. I can't see where such systems would easily forget that "price" they had to pay to "join". And if that were so; some of the votes the "Mandarins" had managed to get passed wouldn't have made it; since a single "nay" vote would have vetoed it.

(Almost?) all the systems that are noted as being "full" members were ones settled either *before* the creation of the League or shortly thereafter.
"Yield to temptation, it may not pass your way again."
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by ldwechsler   » Sun Oct 07, 2018 2:41 am

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OrlandoNative wrote:
munroburton wrote:The League's unique constitutional arrangements mean that once a Verge system had paid their protectorate "fees" and become a full member, they are theoretically equal to, for example, Beowulf in autonomy and member rights. Including the right to secede and the right to raise a self-defense force.

I get the feeling that a "new" full membership in the League wasn't something that happened often - if at all; at least in the more current time period. I can't see where such systems would easily forget that "price" they had to pay to "join". And if that were so; some of the votes the "Mandarins" had managed to get passed wouldn't have made it; since a single "nay" vote would have vetoed it.

(Almost?) all the systems that are noted as being "full" members were ones settled either *before* the creation of the League or shortly thereafter.



The timing is rather suspect. What you write sounds logical but it might not be. Remember there are major zones...Heart worlds, shell, verge, etc.

Some planets closer in might shift over as OFS keeps moving. You can't easily control that many planets.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Castenea   » Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:57 am

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OrlandoNative wrote:
munroburton wrote:The League's unique constitutional arrangements mean that once a Verge system had paid their protectorate "fees" and become a full member, they are theoretically equal to, for example, Beowulf in autonomy and member rights. Including the right to secede and the right to raise a self-defense force.

I get the feeling that a "new" full membership in the League wasn't something that happened often - if at all; at least in the more current time period. I can't see where such systems would easily forget that "price" they had to pay to "join". And if that were so; some of the votes the "Mandarins" had managed to get passed wouldn't have made it; since a single "nay" vote would have vetoed it.

(Almost?) all the systems that are noted as being "full" members were ones settled either *before* the creation of the League or shortly thereafter.

I strongly suspect (especially from history of the US admitting new states) that new members were a political balancing acts. I.e. new members are added as payoff to one faction or another with the (generally true) expectation that they would conform to the platform of the faction that was being appeased. Thus any system that was viewed as likely to be the skunk at the garden party (by doing things like demanding reform of OFS to get the budget passed) were not admitted.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Castenea   » Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:13 am

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Galactic Sapper wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:I keep considering the numbers.
BF boasts 2,000 DNs and SDs.
That is about one ship per system, less if you count the Shell and Verge systems.
BF probably has more total ships but far less tonnage and combat power. SHTF and the SLN does not have enough ships to compel acquiesce. Throw in neobarbs and mysterious ghost ships offing BF units and the SL is in deep feces.

Not to mention the System Defense Forces of the core worlds. Each one was small compared to Battle Fleet, but Beowulf had a couple squadrons of SDs and other core worlds had similar numbers. Each one of those is larger than the navies of most independent worlds (Mesa only had a couple dozen battlecruisers, for example).

Overall, there's probably as many combined hulls in the SDFs than there is in all of the SLN, but the SLN would have the tonnage advantage (if the Reserve was worth more than scrap, anyway).
Yeas and no. As KZT indicates there are very few SDFs with ships of the wall. Most systems in the SL would have had little more than under 100 cutters assigned to their revenue collection and Search and rescue agencies, along with maybe a few dozen LACs if they pretend to have a Navy.

I would not be surprised if for may SL members, and worlds that are not SL members in the Core, they have periodic fits where some paranoid becomes a leader of government with visions of a great all conquering Navy. Despite his visions of squadrons of the wall, all that happens is that the SDF replaces much of it's oldest equipment, recruits up to something resembling full strength, and acquires a handful net new ships.

IE before PM paranoiac : 300LAC, 2 FG, 2DD
After PM paranoiac: 350LAC, 3DD, and the plans for a never built CL
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Theemile   » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:51 am

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Castenea wrote:Yeas and no. As KZT indicates there are very few SDFs with ships of the wall. Most systems in the SL would have had little more than under 100 cutters assigned to their revenue collection and Search and rescue agencies, along with maybe a few dozen LACs if they pretend to have a Navy.

I would not be surprised if for may SL members, and worlds that are not SL members in the Core, they have periodic fits where some paranoid becomes a leader of government with visions of a great all conquering Navy. Despite his visions of squadrons of the wall, all that happens is that the SDF replaces much of it's oldest equipment, recruits up to something resembling full strength, and acquires a handful net new ships.

IE before PM paranoiac : 300LAC, 2 FG, 2DD
After PM paranoiac: 350LAC, 3DD, and the plans for a never built CL


Most importantly, there hasn't been a NEED for a large self defense force for 100s of years. The last SLN fleet battle was over 350 years ago, and that was Frontier Fleet. With Frontier Fleet patroling the spaceways, and Battle Fleet's Mailed Gauntlet poised to strike, why would every individual star need their own navy? As David once said, how many Arleigh Burke's does St. Louis own? It doesn't need them, thanks to the US military, and the local taxpayers arn't just going to pony up for one unless there is a real need. Beowulf's commitment to securing the wormhole, and it's independant daughter colonies is the reason it has such a large force, and is probably paid for by revenue from said sources. What reasons do the other 1782 known members have for fielding multiple wallers?

In fact, we've been told that only 1% of Honorverse navies, or approximately 25 forces, can field a squadron of capital ships or more. We know of 7 of those navies (RMN, IAN, ESN, RHN, GSN, SLN, BSDF), and have 3 more possibles (Talbot, Asgerd, and Mannerheim). There is only room for another dozen to dozen and 1/2 Waller navies, and none of them can be large. The RMN had been in 3rd place since 1875, or when they hit ~100 wallers, meaning all other powers are smaller than that, or have had intense modern construction, like the Haven Sector powers.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by JohnRoth   » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:11 am

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Theemile wrote:
Castenea wrote:Yeas and no. As KZT indicates there are very few SDFs with ships of the wall. Most systems in the SL would have had little more than under 100 cutters assigned to their revenue collection and Search and rescue agencies, along with maybe a few dozen LACs if they pretend to have a Navy.

I would not be surprised if for may SL members, and worlds that are not SL members in the Core, they have periodic fits where some paranoid becomes a leader of government with visions of a great all conquering Navy. Despite his visions of squadrons of the wall, all that happens is that the SDF replaces much of it's oldest equipment, recruits up to something resembling full strength, and acquires a handful net new ships.

IE before PM paranoiac : 300LAC, 2 FG, 2DD
After PM paranoiac: 350LAC, 3DD, and the plans for a never built CL


Most importantly, there hasn't been a NEED for a large self defense force for 100s of years. The last SLN fleet battle was over 350 years ago, and that was Frontier Fleet. With Frontier Fleet patroling the spaceways, and Battle Fleet's Mailed Gauntlet poised to strike, why would every individual star need their own navy? As David once said, how many Arleigh Burke's does St. Louis own? It doesn't need them, thanks to the US military, and the local taxpayers arn't just going to pony up for one unless there is a real need. Beowulf's commitment to securing the wormhole, and it's independant daughter colonies is the reason it has such a large force, and is probably paid for by revenue from said sources. What reasons do the other 1782 known members have for fielding multiple wallers?

In fact, we've been told that only 1% of Honorverse navies, or approximately 25 forces, can field a squadron of capital ships or more. We know of 7 of those navies (RMN, IAN, ESN, RHN, GSN, SLN, BSDF), and have 3 more possibles (Talbot, Asgerd, and Mannerheim). There is only room for another dozen to dozen and 1/2 Waller navies, and none of them can be large. The RMN had been in 3rd place since 1875, or when they hit ~100 wallers, meaning all other powers are smaller than that, or have had intense modern construction, like the Haven Sector powers.


And we've just been told (in UH) that Mannerheim has a wormhole of its own to protect. It goes to Warner, which is 103 ly from Beowulf. (UH, p. 404)
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