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Maya Sector(SPOILER)

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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:00 pm

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I keep considering the numbers.
BF boasts 2,000 DNs and SDs.
That is about one ship per system, less if you count the Shell and Verge systems.
BF probably has more total ships but far less tonnage and combat power. SHTF and the SLN does not have enough ships to compel acquiesce. Throw in neobarbs and mysterious ghost ships offing BF units and the SL is in deep feces.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Galactic Sapper   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:16 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:I keep considering the numbers.
BF boasts 2,000 DNs and SDs.
That is about one ship per system, less if you count the Shell and Verge systems.
BF probably has more total ships but far less tonnage and combat power. SHTF and the SLN does not have enough ships to compel acquiesce. Throw in neobarbs and mysterious ghost ships offing BF units and the SL is in deep feces.

Not to mention the System Defense Forces of the core worlds. Each one was small compared to Battle Fleet, but Beowulf had a couple squadrons of SDs and other core worlds had similar numbers. Each one of those is larger than the navies of most independent worlds (Mesa only had a couple dozen battlecruisers, for example).

Overall, there's probably as many combined hulls in the SDFs than there is in all of the SLN, but the SLN would have the tonnage advantage (if the Reserve was worth more than scrap, anyway).
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by kzt   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:31 pm

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Ships larger than BCs were uncommon in SDFs per David. And SDFs were not close to universal.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by munroburton   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:46 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
munroburton wrote:
We don't really know enough about the League to conclude roughly how long it could have lasted.

I suspect it was approaching a tipping point due to the gradual forced integration of those 'protectorates' into full membership.

At some point, the maxed-out League's Core would have become a minority, surrounded by a resentful, thickening Shell harbouring long memories. This clearly hadn't happened in population terms by ART, but when the Assembly voted on the Beowulf question, around a quarter backed Beowulf.

It would take another century or two, but as those Shell worlds grow larger and more numerous, receive more delegates and potentially exercise their right to construct a "system self-defense force", I can see how the League could have gone down the toilet over a longer period of time which should still be within the Mayan plotters' prolong-extended lives.

I think that time frame would have been much shorter. The MAlign was pushing buttons to send the protectorates in flames. Absent the Grand Alliance, that sort of wide spread bloodshed would have caused even Core Worlds to take notice. Would those Core Worlds have accepted their SLN was engaging in that sort of barbarism? I highly doubt it. Many would have attempted to secede rather than support their central government's proven and obvious tyranny. That wave of secessions would have sparked a civil war.
Baregos recognized this was inevitable and was preparing for it.


Agreed. I was addressing the broader question of whether the League would eventually collapse even without that MAlign or GA interference.

Core World outrage at the SLN's barbarism wouldn't have done this - that sort of thing had been going on for over a century and quite clearly the Core Worlds did not care. Indeed, the protectorate system suits them in a way - it frees them of having to pay a single Solarian credit for their Federal Government.

The League's unique constitutional arrangements mean that once a Verge system had paid their protectorate "fees" and become a full member, they are theoretically equal to, for example, Beowulf in autonomy and member rights. Including the right to secede and the right to raise a self-defense force.

Therefore, rolling out into the Verge continuously will eventually alter the balance of power in the League. It seems impossible for the League to collapse now, but what happens when Shell membership increases by 500? 1,000? Even more?

Once a few score systems nursing a grudge against OFS build up their own SDFs, the League is swimming in gunpowder. When the constitutional right to secede is finally tested, anything could happen.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:02 pm

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munroburton wrote:
PeterZ wrote:I think that time frame would have been much shorter. The MAlign was pushing buttons to send the protectorates in flames. Absent the Grand Alliance, that sort of wide spread bloodshed would have caused even Core Worlds to take notice. Would those Core Worlds have accepted their SLN was engaging in that sort of barbarism? I highly doubt it. Many would have attempted to secede rather than support their central government's proven and obvious tyranny. That wave of secessions would have sparked a civil war.
Baregos recognized this was inevitable and was preparing for it.


Agreed. I was addressing the broader question of whether the League would eventually collapse even without that MAlign or GA interference.

Core World outrage at the SLN's barbarism wouldn't have done this - that sort of thing had been going on for over a century and quite clearly the Core Worlds did not care. Indeed, the protectorate system suits them in a way - it frees them of having to pay a single Solarian credit for their Federal Government.

The League's unique constitutional arrangements mean that once a Verge system had paid their protectorate "fees" and become a full member, they are theoretically equal to, for example, Beowulf in autonomy and member rights. Including the right to secede and the right to raise a self-defense force.

Therefore, rolling out into the Verge continuously will eventually alter the balance of power in the League. It seems impossible for the League to collapse now, but what happens when Shell membership increases by 500? 1,000? Even more?

Once a few score systems nursing a grudge against OFS build up their own SDFs, the League is swimming in gunpowder. When the constitutional right to secede is finally tested, anything could happen.

Ok, however, we can't remove the MAlign activities' responsibility for causing OFS to grow more extreme in the first place. Absent that, I think the OFS system wouldn't have become nearly as predatory. Recall that the initial wave of protectorates really did prosper under OFS guidance. Would OFS have remained a beneficial force without any MAlign interference? I doubt it. I doubt that they would have become nearly as repulsive as they are at the end of the current story arc.

Under that circumstance, I would agree with your premise that it would take another millennia before the rot would have spread thoroughly enough to spark the sort of resentment necessary to light off a rebellion. Under the Onion Plan, Barregos accurately recognized the inevitable as imminent.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Maldorian   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:15 pm

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Private message
Maldorian wrote:

I saw a documentation on TV about the cold war. There was mentioned that you need tree times more Troops as a attacker, because the defender has alot of things at his side (shorter logistic lines, for example)

In Honorverse you don´t need much people to Defend a star system. A few thousand pods with big missles and the invader gets a nice missle rain as a welcome. And remember: pods are no new invention. The new was to put them on a spaceship.

Problem with that is that the Maya Sector likely does not have a thriving military industrial assets and if they do it would still be pretty hard to build up enough pods to defeat the SLN in secret. Plus those pods would require some form of control platform, which would ultimately require more people to operate said platforms not to mention building them.

When the SLN can deploy anywhere between 1 SD and 2000 SD's in a troubled sector and they have 16 systems to choose from the defensive preparations just increased exponentially.


Targeting and aiming are a problem, but the missles are a minor problem.

As a defender of a planet you have a lot of space for your weapons. You could use older technology but build bigger to get a missle with hihger range than any solarian ship based missle.

Maybe you take the idea from the assasination at grayson and build armed sensor drohnes and deploy them in your system. With some fantasy you can make your system a nightmare for every invader.

After all: Barrageos keep it a secret, that he want to leave the solarian league, so, if he upgrade his defense with his own surces, let him do it! It would support the security of the league. And after the trouble in the haven sector he has an very good excuse for defense upgrades.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by ldwechsler   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:12 pm

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Galactic Sapper wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:I keep considering the numbers.
BF boasts 2,000 DNs and SDs.
That is about one ship per system, less if you count the Shell and Verge systems.
BF probably has more total ships but far less tonnage and combat power. SHTF and the SLN does not have enough ships to compel acquiesce. Throw in neobarbs and mysterious ghost ships offing BF units and the SL is in deep feces.

Not to mention the System Defense Forces of the core worlds. Each one was small compared to Battle Fleet, but Beowulf had a couple squadrons of SDs and other core worlds had similar numbers. Each one of those is larger than the navies of most independent worlds (Mesa only had a couple dozen battlecruisers, for example).

Overall, there's probably as many combined hulls in the SDFs than there is in all of the SLN, but the SLN would have the tonnage advantage (if the Reserve was worth more than scrap, anyway).


In the long run, the math breaks down. First of all, ships don't just go one to a system. They go in different kinds of groups.

More important, most of the ships were wildly outdated. When numbers were even, the Sollies NEVER won. What's the point of big ships if they're not much more than big targets?

As trade breaks down, so will revenues. Even with the changes to the system in terms of taxation, people won't pay if they don't have to.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:32 pm

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Galactic Sapper wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:I keep considering the numbers.
BF boasts 2,000 DNs and SDs.
That is about one ship per system, less if you count the Shell and Verge systems.
BF probably has more total ships but far less tonnage and combat power. SHTF and the SLN does not have enough ships to compel acquiesce. Throw in neobarbs and mysterious ghost ships offing BF units and the SL is in deep feces.

Not to mention the System Defense Forces of the core worlds. Each one was small compared to Battle Fleet, but Beowulf had a couple squadrons of SDs and other core worlds had similar numbers. Each one of those is larger than the navies of most independent worlds (Mesa only had a couple dozen battlecruisers, for example).

Overall, there's probably as many combined hulls in the SDFs than there is in all of the SLN, but the SLN would have the tonnage advantage (if the Reserve was worth more than scrap, anyway).


Weber has refuted this reasonsble presumption.
Most SL members have happily outsourced their security to the Mandarins. Beawulf is an exception.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:17 am

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munroburton wrote:
PeterZ wrote:I think that time frame would have been much shorter. The MAlign was pushing buttons to send the protectorates in flames. Absent the Grand Alliance, that sort of wide spread bloodshed would have caused even Core Worlds to take notice.
...
Baregos recognized this was inevitable and was preparing for it.


Agreed. I was addressing the broader question of whether the League would eventually collapse even without that MAlign or GA interference.


Kind of pointless to even consider that possibility; The MAlign influence is a base factor in the political shape of Human Space. The entire premise of the whole series collapses without the MAlign influence and you wind up with an "alternate future history" -- eg an entirely diffferent story.

Whether Manticore, Haven, the Solarian League, The Maya Sector, or anyone else knew about the MAlign, specifically, or suspected an unknown driving force exacerbating the internal tensions of the Solarian League and others, is irrelevant. The MAlign influence existed -- had existed for a century or more -- and Honor and Barregos, among others recognized the effects without any need to recognize the cause(s).

The structure if the Solarian Constitution made for an unstable, unworkable government. Like the Polish-Lithuanian Sejm, it was doomed to eventual self-destruction:



The Solarian League was fracturing, and had been for several centuries. The MAlign manipulations only accelerated an inevitable result -- and the GA vs the SL was just another push from the MAlign in the end. The League might have lasted a thousand years more without the MAlign prying at every crack it could find or make, but the is NOT the Honorverse as RFC has structured it.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Louis R   » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:57 pm

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That conclusion is predicated on an assumption about Barregos' plan that I don't think is confirmed in text - nor, of course, is it refuted. To whit, that he wasn't doing anything to create trigger conditions.

There are indications that the original Sepoy rebellion didn't 'just happen'. I see no reason that it's impossible that someone hoping to profit from a reprise would take steps not just to ensure that the reprise didn't end equally badly but would happen at the most profitable moment. Actually, since it's pretty clear that he was taking steps of some kind and had been for a considerable time, I suppose it would be more correct to say that there's no reason not to think they may include steps to ensure that the disaffection he needs is sufficiently widespread. If he's not merely anticipating it but promoting it [or was anticipating doing so in the future, the Malign may not be the only people whose plans had to be accelerated given the outcome of the Havenite Wars], then he could well be planning to set the match to the fuse himself.

Or, of course, he may feel that the disaffection he sees is mounting quite satisfactorily without him needing to meddle. So his decision to light the fuse becomes contingent on the kegs heaping high enough and the necessary ducks being appropriately aligned. Like everybody's decisions are contingent on some factor or other.


Weird Harold wrote:
I think that is a semantic nitpick.

The Sepoy Option was contingent on other people doing certain things, but without doing anything to influence those people into triggering the option into effect.

Not that they were discouraging anyone from being stupid. :D

They were confident enough that the circumstances to trigger secession would come that they prepared to, first, survive and then, second, minimize the damage.
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