Louis R wrote:That conclusion is predicated on an assumption about Barregos' plan that I don't think is confirmed in text - nor, of course, is it refuted. To whit, that he wasn't doing anything to create trigger conditions.
There are indications that the original Sepoy rebellion didn't 'just happen'. I see no reason that it's impossible that someone hoping to profit from a reprise would take steps not just to ensure that the reprise didn't end equally badly but would happen at the most profitable moment. Actually, since it's pretty clear that he was taking steps of some kind and had been for a considerable time, I suppose it would be more correct to say that there's no reason not to think they may include steps to ensure that the disaffection he needs is sufficiently widespread. If he's not merely anticipating it but promoting it [or was anticipating doing so in the future, the Malign may not be the only people whose plans had to be accelerated given the outcome of the Havenite Wars], then he could well be planning to set the match to the fuse himself.
Or, of course, he may feel that the disaffection he sees is mounting quite satisfactorily without him needing to meddle. So his decision to light the fuse becomes contingent on the kegs heaping high enough and the necessary ducks being appropriately aligned. Like everybody's decisions are contingent on some factor or other.Weird Harold wrote:
I think that is a semantic nitpick.
The Sepoy Option was contingent on other people doing certain things, but without doing anything to influence those people into triggering the option into effect.
Not that they were discouraging anyone from being stupid.
They were confident enough that the circumstances to trigger secession would come that they prepared to, first, survive and then, second, minimize the damage.
We should understand that we are looking with 20/20 hindsight. An awful lot was not known until almost the last minute. Filareta was already on his way when Prichard made her run to Manticore to give out the news about MAlign. Yes, Z and C had already figured out some elements but there was so much unknown.
Keep in mind people generally do what they figure is good for them. When Maya gradually edged away from the mandarins, they kept things quiet because they didn't know what was going to happen. If there wasn't a mess, the huge disparity in numbers would prove fatal. They didn't have nearly the weaponry of the GA.
That's the way history works.