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Maya Sector(SPOILER)

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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by ywing14   » Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:02 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
ywing14 wrote:The Sepoy Option was specifically planned on the premise that the SL was going to come apart at some point. And the signs of this they were seeing we pretty accurate given the fact the MAlign was pulling the strings to make it fracture. It was the MAlign's stated goal. Their decision to plan for the SL's demise was completely reasonable. Given they way the SL is divided into sectors I'm not surprised Barregos had contingency plans for a time with out the league.

Of course, Barregos et al could have been at one point part of the MAlign and so gotten an insight into their long term plans. Coupled with visible signs of the fracturing, the Sepoy was more than a contingency plan. It was a plan to deal with a real threat. The time frame sped up with the technical ascendency of the RMN over the RHN. The Sepoy Option's contingency planning took advantage of the RMN's superiority over the SLN to begin their naval purchases from Erewhon. However, Sepoy was not a contingency should events arise, but a plan based an expected geopolitical event.


Definitely can't rule out that premise. I don't believe Barregos was ever directly involved in the plans. However, I think it's probable the MAlign was aware of his thinking and encouraged his plans indirectly. And having thought about your post I have to agree with you that it was not a contingency place.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Louis R   » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:51 am

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I'm quite certain it wasn't merely a contingency plan. Everybody seems to be forgetting what the "Sepoy" Option is all about. Not terribly surprising since the Indian Mutiny doesn't loom large in most of our consciences.

Also forgotten is that Luis Roszak is apparently not untypical of mid-rank FF officers who don't hail from one of the SLN dynasties. And the fact that he got a flag suggests that the gap between those dynasties and their BF counterparts is a lot wider than the one between them and the Roszaks in FF. What's escaped my attention until just now is that _every_ view we've had into BF has been on a flag bridge. We have no idea where most of their other ranks come from, or even that majority of the officer corps that is obliged to at least pretend they work for their living. However, if FF and particularly the Marines are anything to go by, I'll give long odds that it's not from the core worlds, nor even the Shell.

And that's what Barregos and Roszak have been looking at. _They_ know what happened to John Company when it put its security and military power into the hands of natives, and then proceeded to abuse those natives' friends and relations in the name of an extra quid. Who knows? Maybe they've even read snippets of a far-fetched romance by a pair of long-forgotten ante-Diaspora fantasists - Revolt? Mutiny? Insurrection?... something like that, anyway.

ywing14 wrote:The Sepoy Option was specifically planned on the premise that the SL was going to come apart at some point. And the signs of this they were seeing we pretty accurate given the fact the MAlign was pulling the strings to make it fracture. It was the MAlign's stated goal. Their decision to plan for the SL's demise was completely reasonable. Given they way the SL is divided into sectors I'm not surprised Barregos had contingency plans for a time with out the league.

ywing14 wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Of course, Barregos et al could have been at one point part of the MAlign and so gotten an insight into their long term plans. Coupled with visible signs of the fracturing, the Sepoy was more than a contingency plan. It was a plan to deal with a real threat. The time frame sped up with the technical ascendency of the RMN over the RHN. The Sepoy Option's contingency planning took advantage of the RMN's superiority over the SLN to begin their naval purchases from Erewhon. However, Sepoy was not a contingency should events arise, but a plan based an expected geopolitical event.


Definitely can't rule out that premise. I don't believe Barregos was ever directly involved in the plans. However, I think it's probable the MAlign was aware of his thinking and encouraged his plans indirectly. And having thought about your post I have to agree with you that it was not a contingency place.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Fox2!   » Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:06 am

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ywing14 wrote:
Definitely can't rule out that premise. I don't believe Barregos was ever directly involved in the plans. However, I think it's probable the MAlign was aware of his thinking and encouraged his plans indirectly. And having thought about your post I have to agree with you that it was not a contingency place.


As we see from the visit of the ersatz Prince Michael, the MA was trying at least to involve Maya in a sector wide equivalent of the "Manticoran" supported insurrection that Firebrand (and others) were doing in the vicinity of the Talbott Sector. I suspect they were doing the same thing in other regions of space under the influence of OFS.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Weird Harold   » Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:03 am

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Louis R wrote:I'm quite certain it wasn't merely a contingency plan.


I think that is a semantic nitpick.

The Sepoy Option was contingent on other people doing certain things, but without doing anything to influence those people into triggering the option into effect.

Not that they were discouraging anyone from being stupid. :D

They were confident enough that the circumstances to trigger secession would come that they prepared to, first, survive and then, second, minimize the damage.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Sigs   » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:02 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
Honor saw it coming without being privy to all the information that a sector governor and FF sector commander would have. Why do you say they couldn't see the writing on the wall?
Until well into the war between the GA and the League few people in the GA actually expected the League to collapse. FF sector governors were by and large corrupt just like the rest of the League's government, but this is not an overnight occurrence there has had to be a build up in the previous century or even previous few centuries. Without an actual external threat no-one outside of the MA would have realistically expected a League collapse and the SLN's complete defeat in such a spectacular and one sided fashion.

The Sepoy Option was (in theory) structured so that it could just remain a contingency plan until the League did self-destruct. If the League did NOT self-destruct, the contingency plan would never be used.
Problem is that they(The governor and the Admiral) had to bring in most of their inner circle part of the way if not all the way in during the planning. Nothing worse than planning treason and finding out during the execution phase that the officers you were counting on are loyal to the SLN.

There were, in fact, external pressures before the war with the SEM; as well as during -- Remember the MAlign? Remember how they engineered the war with the SEM? Remember all the deep-cover star lines manipulating the League into stupid, counter-productive actions?
All the external pressure was irrelevant because the pressure was either not widely understood or it was meant to engineer a war between a star nation which until recently had only one system to it's name and the biggest and strongest nation in history, and I would suspect that the governor had to start planning the secession well before hostilities broke out between the SEM and the League.



There's no way the League was lasting more than a few decades, let alone 5000 years.
Since they didn't know about the MA and it's plans the continued existence of the League was not really in doubt until the war was under way.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Sigs   » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:06 pm

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Maldorian wrote:
I saw a documentation on TV about the cold war. There was mentioned that you need tree times more Troops as a attacker, because the defender has alot of things at his side (shorter logistic lines, for example)

In Honorverse you don´t need much people to Defend a star system. A few thousand pods with big missles and the invader gets a nice missle rain as a welcome. And remember: pods are no new invention. The new was to put them on a spaceship.

Problem with that is that the Maya Sector likely does not have a thriving military industrial assets and if they do it would still be pretty hard to build up enough pods to defeat the SLN in secret. Plus those pods would require some form of control platform, which would ultimately require more people to operate said platforms not to mention building them.

When the SLN can deploy anywhere between 1 SD and 2000 SD's in a troubled sector and they have 16 systems to choose from the defensive preparations just increased exponentially.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by Fox2!   » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:11 pm

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Sigs wrote:
Problem is that they(The governor and the Admiral) had to bring in most of their inner circle part of the way if not all the way in during the planning. Nothing worse than planning treason and finding out during the execution phase that the officers you were counting on are loyal to the SLN.



Barregos has already "retired" one Lieutenant Governor whose loyalty was not pointed in the right direction. And replaced them with one whose loyalty he was more sure of. I think we can say he is aware of the risk, and is prepared to ... minimize it, when necessary.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by munroburton   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:21 am

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Sigs wrote:
There's no way the League was lasting more than a few decades, let alone 5000 years.
Since they didn't know about the MA and it's plans the continued existence of the League was not really in doubt until the war was under way.


We don't really know enough about the League to conclude roughly how long it could have lasted.

I suspect it was approaching a tipping point due to the gradual forced integration of those 'protectorates' into full membership.

At some point, the maxed-out League's Core would have become a minority, surrounded by a resentful, thickening Shell harbouring long memories. This clearly hadn't happened in population terms by ART, but when the Assembly voted on the Beowulf question, around a quarter backed Beowulf.

It would take another century or two, but as those Shell worlds grow larger and more numerous, receive more delegates and potentially exercise their right to construct a "system self-defense force", I can see how the League could have gone down the toilet over a longer period of time which should still be within the Mayan plotters' prolong-extended lives.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:47 am

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munroburton wrote:
We don't really know enough about the League to conclude roughly how long it could have lasted.

I suspect it was approaching a tipping point due to the gradual forced integration of those 'protectorates' into full membership.

At some point, the maxed-out League's Core would have become a minority, surrounded by a resentful, thickening Shell harbouring long memories. This clearly hadn't happened in population terms by ART, but when the Assembly voted on the Beowulf question, around a quarter backed Beowulf.

It would take another century or two, but as those Shell worlds grow larger and more numerous, receive more delegates and potentially exercise their right to construct a "system self-defense force", I can see how the League could have gone down the toilet over a longer period of time which should still be within the Mayan plotters' prolong-extended lives.

I think that time frame would have been much shorter. The MAlign was pushing buttons to send the protectorates in flames. Absent the Grand Alliance, that sort of wide spread bloodshed would have caused even Core Worlds to take notice. Would those Core Worlds have accepted their SLN was engaging in that sort of barbarism? I highly doubt it. Many would have attempted to secede rather than support their central government's proven and obvious tyranny. That wave of secessions would have sparked a civil war.
Baregos recognized this was inevitable and was preparing for it.
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Re: Maya Sector(SPOILER)
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:53 pm

TFLYTSNBN

Consider the historical example of Quebec.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/7971164
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