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What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?

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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by cthia   » Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:19 pm

cthia
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I must admit that it escaped me how the problem of intergalactic coordination of forces could've been solved by the Peeps to allow a two-pronged attack on the SK through Basilisk. The SLN used a Dispatch Boat. I suppose the same trick could be used in this case as well.

Is there a map with Beowulf listed?

Unless I'm overlooking her here map1 and here map2.


As an aside, I was once working on implementing the Two Generals' Problem in Lisp more than a decade ago and lost all of the code on a crashed hard drive.

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Last edited by cthia on Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by munroburton   » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:04 pm

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cthia wrote:I must admit that it escaped me how the problem of intergalactic coordination of forces could've been solved by the Peeps to allow a two-pronged attack on the SK through Basilisk. The SLN used a Dispatch Boat. I suppose the same trick could be used in this case as well.

Is there a map with Beowulf listed?

Unless I'm overlooking her here and here.


Look for Sigma Draconis, Beowulf's star.

As for the two-prong attack, it wouldn't be difficult to arrange, as long as operational secrecy is maintained. Risky, yes, but all the Basilisk & Trevor's Star task forces have to do is transit at "midnight Nouveau Paris time, X date". Could be three, six, twelve months from 'now'.

The SLN only needed trickery with the dispatch boat because Filareta's fleet couldn't meet its planned schedule. In the hypothetical scenario posed, Haven would have pre-deployed assault forces at Basilisk and Trevor's Star, which could not be delayed in the way Filareta was.

In reality, Haven probably would never have launched such an attack, proceeding with a plan more like White Haven's conquest of Trevor's Star - first seizing the Junction by attacking through hyperspace and then summoning additional reinforcements.
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by cthia   » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:23 pm

cthia
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munroburton wrote:
cthia wrote:I must admit that it escaped me how the problem of intergalactic coordination of forces could've been solved by the Peeps to allow a two-pronged attack on the SK through Basilisk. The SLN used a Dispatch Boat. I suppose the same trick could be used in this case as well.

Is there a map with Beowulf listed?

Unless I'm overlooking her here and here.


Look for Sigma Draconis, Beowulf's star.

As for the two-prong attack, it wouldn't be difficult to arrange, as long as operational secrecy is maintained. Risky, yes, but all the Basilisk & Trevor's Star task forces have to do is transit at "midnight Nouveau Paris time, X date". Could be three, six, twelve months from 'now'.

The SLN only needed trickery with the dispatch boat because Filareta's fleet couldn't meet its planned schedule. In the hypothetical scenario posed, Haven would have pre-deployed assault forces at Basilisk and Trevor's Star, which could not be delayed in the way Filareta was.

In reality, Haven probably would never have launched such an attack, proceeding with a plan more like White Haven's conquest of Trevor's Star - first seizing the Junction by attacking through hyperspace and then summoning additional reinforcements.


If'n she'd a been a snake . . . thanks.

Don't you have to allow for time dilation with distance traveled? Making a thirty minute nonsynchronous time failure fatal?

Unlike a DB . . . "NOW!"

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by Kael Posavatz   » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:02 pm

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Maybe,

But assuming your ship knows how fast it's going (I know what they say about assumptions, but this one feels pretty safe) the dilation should be calculable.
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by Kael Posavatz   » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:51 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:Still, in hindsight I don't think it would have been a military disaster if Haven had managed to seize it. Which is a good thing since the civilian government refused to allow the type of military defenses and fleet it would take to hold the system against a serious attack.


Allowing another nation to seize chunks of your territory effectively unopposed is pretty much the definition of a military disaster even if in so doing it wasn't disastrous for the military on the receiving end. You can't measure it in ships and lives lost, you have to consider the impact on your civilian population.

strength*will=capacity to resist

Whoever has one of the numbers on the left hit 0 first has lost.

Manticore had spent decades building up the RMN. It was a hugely expensive outlay. The RMN is supposed to protect the SKM (it's in the job description). Losing one cruiser wouldn't have been much to the RMN itself, but it would have been a huge blow to the national psyche (and the RMN's confidence), and at the same time given Haven a huge boost in confidence.
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by cthia   » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:14 am

cthia
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I don't know what the precision or the accuracy of Honorverse instruments in measuring elapsed time throughout the universe. I do know that the passage of time through a wormhole is not measurable. The degree of error is directly proportional to the distance traveled. IINM, even Honorverse ships have to reset chronometers upon exiting hyper. On Star Trek, the need to do so was shown on many occasions. I'm almost certain the problem is present when exiting wormholes as well. There is no way to synchronous clocks on opposite sides of the universe by the precision of the significant digits of man's toys.

And we all know that an error of minutes could result in extreme losses. An insignificant digit error resulting in tens of minutes could invite defeat in detail or total destruction.

I don't know how it goes in DW's world, but in most Sci-Fi I've encountered, time dilation from traveling great distances is handled by resetting chronometers once the ship reenters n-space, exiting either from a wormhole or having been flung by some sentient outside force.

I'm certain it can be calculated and it most probably is calculated. But it isn't milspec to the tune of galactic coordination of prongs of attack.


There is a Sci-Fi piece of an advanced alien wearing a wristwatch. The curious human asks what it is.

"It's an advanced timepiece that displays universal time zones."

"You can tell the exact time all over the universe?"

"Yes, that's the idea."

"How does it work?"

"Prayer."

Of course, a timepiece powered by handwavium would be perfectly milspec.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:33 am

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cthia wrote:I'm certain it can be calculated and it most probably is calculated. But it isn't milspec to the tune of galactic coordination of prongs of attack.


I think given enough time to refine observations and calculations, synchronization could be fairly accurate. If you're going to sneak task-forces to multiple WHT for simultaneous attacks on the WHJ, it would be trivial to plan for time to make very fine observations and calculations.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by cthia   » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:42 am

cthia
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Weird Harold wrote:
cthia wrote:I'm certain it can be calculated and it most probably is calculated. But it isn't milspec to the tune of galactic coordination of prongs of attack.


I think given enough time to refine observations and calculations, synchronization could be fairly accurate. If you're going to sneak task-forces to multiple WHT for simultaneous attacks on the WHJ, it would be trivial to plan for time to make very fine observations and calculations.

I don't doubt the fairly accurate part. An error of minutes when using manmade instruments on such great distances is fairly accurate. IMO. But if Tourville relies on its fair accuracy, it might be close, but he gets NO cigar.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:30 am

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cthia wrote:I just don't understand that. RMN presence and the picket was already there. Choosing to fully support it wouldn't have appeared as if it was ratcheting up the pressure, but simply strengthening an already existing defensive posture - because as you said it wasn't well positioned as a base from which to attack Haven.

It seemed like an awful expenditure of firepower and an awful waste of long hours of strategy and tactics the Peep Admiralty spent in the War Room to seize her, simply for an economic attack on a very lucrative star system. The Peeps pulled out all the stops for Basilisk, even introducing Q-ships to the series. And to the Star Kingdom? The SK showed the Peeps a better use for a Q-ship. Although they risked their MVP (IMO) to do it.

All that aside, you don't think a concerted effort utilizing an attack through Basilisk on the order of the first BOM to be a serious threat? At a time the SKs toys would only have been a pipedream?

It would have been nice if textev had divulged the Peeps order of battle hiding in hyper.

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Actually I guess on second thought taking Basilisk away from Manticore could have had a second significant effect. How likely is it Manticore would be as succesful putting together their pre-war alliance if everyone they courted had just seem them roll over for Haven and surrender their (quasi) soverign territory?

From the diplomatic standpoint taking Basilisk away could have been very helpful to Haven. But militarily it does almost nothing to help them - it's poorly positioned for them to reinforce or supply. (edit: I see Kael Posavatz also touched on this)



Though it's also likely that the Peeps hadn't yet realized quite how useless it could be militarily (or if their Navy did their Legislaturalist bosses might not -- see Darkfall).

Even Manticore didn't realize quite how effective laserheads and pods were at defending against a wormhole assault -- and the Peeps don't even know about the pods yet. So they might have thought having 2 termini would allow them to successfully seize the Junction. (Ironically, given some of their intel sources in the Manticoran government they might even have thought that because they got wind of Manticore's erroneous belief of that) So the Peeps could have be planning to seize it for a perceived military advantage -- but I'm convinced such a dual wormhole assault, even as the surprise start of a war, would have ended in disastrous failure for them.
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Re: What is the |value| of captured enemy systems?
Post by cthia   » Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:51 pm

cthia
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Weird Harold wrote:
cthia wrote:I'm certain it can be calculated and it most probably is calculated. But it isn't milspec to the tune of galactic coordination of prongs of attack.


I think given enough time to refine observations and calculations, synchronization could be fairly accurate. If you're going to sneak task-forces to multiple WHT for simultaneous attacks on the WHJ, it would be trivial to plan for time to make very fine observations and calculations.

cthia wrote:I don't doubt the fairly accurate part. An error of minutes when using manmade instruments on such great distances is fairly accurate. IMO. But if Tourville relies on its fair accuracy, it might be close, but he gets NO cigar.

Mere minutes can be the difference in life and death. It reminds me of the scene in Top Gun. . .

01:32:59 - "What about Willard and Simkin?" - "We can't launch any aircraft yet, sir."

01:33:04 - "How long?" - "It'll take 10 minutes."

01:33:06 "Bullshit! 10 minutes! This thing will be over in two minutes! Get on it."

IINM, even textev in the Honorverse places a limit on the accuracy of Honorverse instruments. Remember, calculating complicated jumps out of the RZ Zone can be fatal and they're inputting data into high tech computers.

What was the total elapsed time of both BOMs?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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