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Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition

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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by kzt   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:30 pm

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Joat42 wrote:The Mesa bombings primary purpose was to hide evidence.

First, what evidence was there to hide in Green Pines?
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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by Joat42   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:38 pm

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kzt wrote:
Joat42 wrote:The Mesa bombings primary purpose was to hide evidence.

First, what evidence was there to hide in Green Pines?

I thought we where talking about the bombs Detweiler set off.

On the other hand, the Green Pines bomb was set off by a seccy.

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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by JohnRoth   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:44 pm

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Joat42 wrote:The Mesa bombings primary purpose was to hide evidence.


Joat42 wrote:
kzt wrote:First, what evidence was there to hide in Green Pines?


I thought we where talking about the bombs Detweiler set off.

On the other hand, the Green Pines bomb was set off by a seccy.


Actually, we've got five attacks to account for.

1. The Houdini coverup bombs. These were structured to look like Ballroom terror attacks, but the actual purpose was to hide the evidence of a mass evacuation.

2. Green Pines. One of the three bombs was a terror attack. The second was the destruction of the Gamma Center, and the third was an overly enthusiastic method of covering the Dynamic Duo's escape.

3. The bombs that Albrecht D. set off to close off everything that hadn't been evacuated when Tenth Fleet arrived. This was a coverup; any intent to look like a terrorist attack was secondary.

4. The Yawata strike. This was collateral damage from the attack on Manticore infrastructure. It was a clear violation of the Deneb Accords, but otherwise within the "laws of war."

5. The destruction of the Beowulf habitats. This was clearly a reprisal and terror attack.

So we've got 1 and 1/3 terror attacks, plus a faux terror campaign.
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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by kzt   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:45 pm

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Green pines was in fact a ballroom terrorist attack on random civilians aided by both Manticoran and Haven intel officers. Which makes it pretty important when you are taking about ballroom terrorist attacks on random civilians that were aided by GA intelligence.
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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by tlb   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:43 pm

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kzt wrote:Green pines was in fact a ballroom terrorist attack on random civilians aided by both Manticoran and Haven intel officers. Which makes it pretty important when you are taking about ballroom terrorist attacks on random civilians that were aided by GA intelligence.

As I have argued elsewhere, Zilwicki and Cachet were certainly complicit in the Green Pines bombing; but I do not think that you can say that about the Ballroom (except in a propaganda sense). The Ballroom may have helped by supplying a list of sympathizers on Mesa; but the seccies were not members and the Ballroom was not involved in planning the action.
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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by quite possibly a cat   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:12 pm

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So what actually counts as terrorism is a bit of a touchy subject. [url="premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents."]Wikipedia says so![/url] They have a bunch of definitions. For example one def is "premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents."

Another one is "the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives"
JohnRoth wrote:1. The Houdini coverup bombs. These were structured to look like Ballroom terror attacks, but the actual purpose was to hide the evidence of a mass evacuation.
If I remember correctly these were also designed to gin up anti-seccie feelings. Its a multi-purpose terrorist attack.

JohnRoth wrote:3. The bombs that Albrecht D. set off to close off everything that hadn't been evacuated when Tenth Fleet arrived. This was a coverup; any intent to look like a terrorist attack was secondary.
Well, Manticore is going to be yelling very loudly that they were being framed, so that's clearly a political goal. So terrorism.

Plus, if they mention stuff like clandestine nano-weapon facilities people will have questions like "What was your plan for if they used those super advanced nano-weapons on you?" Manticore has already admitted it doesn't have a way of finding the nanoweapons before they trigger.

JohnRoth wrote:
4. The Yawata strike. This was collateral damage from the attack on Manticore infrastructure. It was a clear violation of the Deneb Accords, but otherwise within the "laws of war."
That's more questionable. I would say it was either terrorism or piracy since it was an attack on (what the attackers believed) were neutral starbases.

However, if you the truth about Green Pines, it becomes super easy to claim it was a lawful act of war. Then Yawata certainly looks like a lawful act of war to anyone outside the Onion who knows the truth of Green Pines. I don't think the Deneb Accords require breaking stealth before striking.

However, somehow I don't think Manticore wants to make that argument. "Actually Yawata wasn't a terrorist attack! It was merely a lawful act of war we started by nuking Green Pines!" So it certainly looks like a terrorist attack unless Manticore is already caught for Green Pines. If Manticore has been caught for Green Pines they just look like they got a bunch of their own people killed.
tlb wrote:The Ballroom may have helped by supplying a list of sympathizers on Mesa; but the seccies were not members and the Ballroom was not involved in planning the action.
This is true.

Joat42 wrote:And what terrorists have the GA and Beowulf a working history with?
The Ballroom, the seccies on Mesa and Firebrand.
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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by tlb   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:54 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:4. The Yawata strike. This was collateral damage from the attack on Manticore infrastructure. It was a clear violation of the Deneb Accords, but otherwise within the "laws of war."

An action cannot both be: 1. a clear violation of the Deneb Accords 2. within the laws of war. The reason is that the Deneb Accords constitute the bulk of the laws of war in the Honorverse.

Joat42 wrote: And what terrorists have the GA and Beowulf a working history with?

quite possibly a cat wrote:The Ballroom, the seccies on Mesa and Firebrand.

Firebrand is a Malign agent who was finally caught by GA; so not him, unless this is a spoiler for UC.
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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by kzt   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:12 pm

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tlb wrote:As I have argued elsewhere, Zilwicki and Cachet were certainly complicit in the Green Pines bombing; but I do not think that you can say that about the Ballroom (except in a propaganda sense). The Ballroom may have helped by supplying a list of sympathizers on Mesa; but the seccies were not members and the Ballroom was not involved in planning the action.

I believe, though I haven't bothered to check, that the secies said they were part of the ballroom. It's like being part of ISIS.
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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by tlb   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:49 pm

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kzt wrote:Green pines was in fact a ballroom terrorist attack on random civilians aided by both Manticoran and Haven intel officers. Which makes it pretty important when you are taking about ballroom terrorist attacks on random civilians that were aided by GA intelligence.

tlb wrote:As I have argued elsewhere, Zilwicki and Cachet were certainly complicit in the Green Pines bombing; but I do not think that you can say that about the Ballroom (except in a propaganda sense). The Ballroom may have helped by supplying a list of sympathizers on Mesa; but the seccies were not members and the Ballroom was not involved in planning the action.

kzt wrote:I believe, though I haven't bothered to check, that the secies said they were part of the ballroom. It's like being part of ISIS.

Like you, I have not checked; but I thought they admitted to being part of the Ballroom as part of interrogation by Mesan security.
Going back to your previous statement: Zilwicki is not a Manticoran intelligence officer; he is a half-pay naval officer who runs a private security service. He has stronger ties to the government of Torch.
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Re: Clue [UH Spoilers] Edition
Post by Vince   » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:08 pm

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tlb wrote:
kzt wrote:Green pines was in fact a ballroom terrorist attack on random civilians aided by both Manticoran and Haven intel officers. Which makes it pretty important when you are taking about ballroom terrorist attacks on random civilians that were aided by GA intelligence.

tlb wrote:As I have argued elsewhere, Zilwicki and Cachet were certainly complicit in the Green Pines bombing; but I do not think that you can say that about the Ballroom (except in a propaganda sense). The Ballroom may have helped by supplying a list of sympathizers on Mesa; but the seccies were not members and the Ballroom was not involved in planning the action.

kzt wrote:I believe, though I haven't bothered to check, that the secies said they were part of the ballroom. It's like being part of ISIS.

Like you, I have not checked; but I thought they admitted to being part of the Ballroom as part of interrogation by Mesan security.
Going back to your previous statement: Zilwicki is not a Manticoran intelligence officer; he is a half-pay naval officer who runs a private security service. He has stronger ties to the government of Torch.

The closest relationship the seccies that Zilwicki and Cachat made contact with had with the actual Ballrom was the seccies were Ballroom wannabes. Colin Detweiler never actually states that the ones they caught were Ballroom terrorists, but instead refers to them as seccies:
Mission of Honor ,Chapter 4 wrote:“What we still can’t prove is exactly what he was up to before Isabel became suspicious of him. We’re sure we’ve figured out his basic intentions, but we’ve had to do most of the figuring from secondary sources. There aren’t any primary sources or witnesses left on our side, aside from the one low-level agent who seems to be the only person to’ve done everything right. But there’s reason to believe the Ballroom was involved, at least peripherally.
“The Ballroom knew about the Gamma Center?” Astonishment and a sudden pulse of panic startled the question out of her. If the ex-genetic slave terrorists of the Ballroom had discovered that much, who knew how much else they might have learned about the Alignment?
“We don’t think so.” Collin shook his head quickly. “We do have a few . . . ​witnesses from the other side, and based on their testimony and our own investigations, we’ve confirmed that Zilwicki and Cachat were here on Mesa and—almost certainly—that the Center’s head of security made contact with them.”
Anisimovna knew her eyes were huge, but not even an alpha line could have helped that under these circumstances. Anton Zilwicki and Victor Cachat had been here on Mesa itself? This was getting better and better by the second, wasn’t it?
“None of the evidence suggests they’d come expressly looking for the Center,” Collin went on reassuringly. “We know how the traitor discovered they were here in the first place, so we’re confident they didn’t come looking to make contact with him, at any rate. It looks like he decided, for reasons of his own, that he wanted to defect and jumped at the chance when he realized they were here. In fact, we have imagery of him actually meeting Zilwicki—that’s what made Isabel suspicious in the first place. Zilwicki hadn’t been IDed from the imagery before she went looking for . . . ​the defector, but she did know that low-level agent I mentioned had already fingered him as a Ballroom peripheral. Unfortunately, the first person he reported that little fact to was the Center’s chief of security.”
He smiled thinly at Anisimovna’s grimace.
“Yes, that was convenient for him, wasn’t it?” he agreed. “We think that’s what triggered the decision to defect, and it also put him in a position to keep anyone higher up the chain from realizing Zilwicki was on-planet. The only thing that screwed him up was the original agent’s suspicions when one of his bugs caught them meeting in a seccy restaurant. We were just lucky as hell our man had the gumption and the balls to go directly to Isabel. Unfortunately, ‘lucky’ is a relative term in this case. Our man didn’t know his ‘Ballroom peripheral’ was Anton Zilwicki, so Isabel didn’t realize it either. If she had, she would have approached the whole thing differently, but she clearly had no idea how serious the security breach really was, and she decided to handle it personally, quickly, and, above all, quietly. Which, however reasonable it may’ve seemed, was a mistake in this case. When he realized Isabel was coming for him, the defector was able to trigger the charge under the Center. He took the whole damned place—and all of its on-site records and personnel—with him. Not to mention one of Green Pines’ larger commercial towers—and everyone inside it—when the charge went off in its sub-basement.”
Anisimovna inhaled suddenly, sharply. She might have known the Gamma Center was in the Mesa System, but she’d never guessed it might be located in one of the system capital’s bedroom suburbs!
“The only good points were that it was a Saturday and early, so most of the Center’s R&D personnel were safely at home, and the defector had apparently set up a fallback position to take out Zilwicki and Cachat in case they stiffed him. He used it, and we’re ninety-nine-point-nine-nine percent sure he managed to kill both of them . . . ​even if it did take another nuke to do the job. So they’re both dead, at least. But not”—his jaw muscles tightened, and he eyes went terrifyingly cold—“without another Ballroom bastard using a nuke on Pine Valley Park. On a Saturday morning.”
Anisimovna’s stomach muscles clenched. She knew Collin’s family lived just outside Green Pines’ central park. His children played there almost every weekend, and—
“No,” he said more gently as he saw the shock in her eyes. “No, Alexis and the kids weren’t there, thank God. But most of their friends were. And on a more pragmatic level, we picked up two of the local seccies Zilwicki and Cachat used.” This time his smile was a terrible thing to see. “They’ve been dealt with, but not before they told us everything they ever knew in their lives, and, to give the devil his due, they both insisted Zilwicki and Cachat never intended to nuke the park. In fact, it wasn’t their idea, either. One of their fellow lunatics apparently went berserk and made the decision on his own.”
Anisimovna knew she looked shell-shocked, but that was all right. She was shell-shocked.
“On the other hand,” Collin continued, “having three separate nukes go off in Green Pines on a single day isn’t the sort of thing you can cover up. We took the position that we intended to conduct a very thorough investigation before we leveled any charges—which was true enough—but we knew we’d eventually have to go public with some explanation. No one wanted to admit the Ballroom could get through to pull something like this, but we decided that was the least of the evils available to us. In fact, once the seccies confessed, we decided we could charge that Zilwicki was the mastermind behind the whole thing. Which, in a way, he was after all.”
“We considered adding Cachat to the mix,” Albrecht said, “but he wasn’t the kind of public figure Zilwicki was after that expose of Yael Underwood’s ‘outed’ him a couple of years ago, and he managed to keep his involvement with Verdant Vista under the radar horizon. Nobody knows who the hell he was, and we couldn’t come up with a plausible way to explain how we knew, either. Under the circumstances, we decided that trying to link Haven to it as well would be too much for even the Solly public to take without asking questions—like what two agents from star nations at war with each other were doing on Mesa together—we’d rather not answer. Fortunately, no one in the League expects a bunch of Ballroom terrorists to act rationally, and we’ve been chiseling away at ‘Torch’s’ claim that it’s not really a Ballroom safe harbor ever since we lost the planet. That made Zilwicki’s involvement even jucier.”
Italics are the author's, boldface and underlined text is my emphasis.
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History does not repeat itself so much as it echoes.
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