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Where Next for the GSN?

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Re: Where Next for the GSN?
Post by tlb   » Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:50 pm

tlb
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Brigade XO wrote:Another piece about what is next for Grayson.....Allison Harrington. Remember the conversation she had with the head of the Grayson Church? The one where she laid out what she had discovered about why the massively high rate of stillbirths and miscarrages of male children, and that she had a way to deal with that?
Presuming that Grayson is going to go along with the Beowulf Code and NOT ALLOW parents to select for one sex over the other, there are going to be a couple of things happening as soon as all of this works it's way though the Church and the solution (aka gene cleaning) make it out to the public in addressing both the unintended consequences of the fixed modification AND the rising birth rate.
Yeah, rising. Some of that because there will be a lot of families who are likely to try for sons- and along with those sons will also (remember there will be both the medical ethics and Church position on unborn children) be more daughters being born- and people will keep trying for sons. Like opening the floodgates because they can expect more pregnancies to be successful & result in sons. It's just that to have that result there will also be a number of more daughters to go along with it.

I am with you on most of what you write, but you lose me on the part that I have highlighted. After Alison's fixes work their way into the population; there would actually be fewer births, if people are only trying until they have a boy. The reason is that the fix makes it easier to produce a healthy boy; up until now pregnancy was much more likely to produce a girl, because a male fetus was more prone to result in a miscarriage.
I do not have the math working, but after the fix is in the proportions should be close to 50-50. Prior to the fix out of every 8 pregnancies, 4 would result in girls, 3 in miscarriages and then 1 healthy boy (I did not look up the ratio: this was for 1 boy to every 4 girls. If it really is 1 to 3, then the numbers out of 6 are 3, 2 and 1). Someone else can figure the expected population rate, if each family (or mother) stops having children after the first boy is born (or some limit on pregnancies is hit); when the odds of not having a boy are 50% after the fix versus either 87.5% or 83.3% before the fix. Whether this is one per family or one per mother is another variable.

PS. AAC describes the Moriarty system, it does not mention the system defense called Mycroft.
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Re: Where Next for the GSN?
Post by cthia   » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:52 pm

cthia
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tlb wrote:
Brigade XO wrote:Another piece about what is next for Grayson.....Allison Harrington. Remember the conversation she had with the head of the Grayson Church? The one where she laid out what she had discovered about why the massively high rate of stillbirths and miscarrages of male children, and that she had a way to deal with that?
Presuming that Grayson is going to go along with the Beowulf Code and NOT ALLOW parents to select for one sex over the other, there are going to be a couple of things happening as soon as all of this works it's way though the Church and the solution (aka gene cleaning) make it out to the public in addressing both the unintended consequences of the fixed modification AND the rising birth rate.
Yeah, rising. Some of that because there will be a lot of families who are likely to try for sons- and along with those sons will also (remember there will be both the medical ethics and Church position on unborn children) be more daughters being born- and people will keep trying for sons. Like opening the floodgates because they can expect more pregnancies to be successful & result in sons. It's just that to have that result there will also be a number of more daughters to go along with it.

I am with you on most of what you write, but you lose me on the part that I have highlighted. After Alison's fixes work their way into the population; there would actually be fewer births, if people are only trying until they have a boy. The reason is that the fix makes it easier to produce a healthy boy; up until now pregnancy was much more likely to produce a girl, because a male fetus was more prone to result in a miscarriage.
I do not have the math working, but after the fix is in the proportions should be close to 50-50. Prior to the fix out of every 8 pregnancies, 4 would result in girls, 3 in miscarriages and then 1 healthy boy (I did not look up the ratio: this was for 1 boy to every 4 girls. If it really is 1 to 3, then the numbers out of 6 are 3, 2 and 1). Someone else can figure the expected population rate, if each family (or mother) stops having children after the first boy is born (or some limit on pregnancies is hit); when the odds of not having a boy are 50% after the fix versus either 87.5% or 83.3% before the fix. Whether this is one per family or one per mother is another variable.

PS. AAC describes the Moriarty system, it does not mention the system defense called Mycroft.

If all this comes to pass, will a point come in the future that Grayson's polygamist model will become a problem? Seeing that many, if not most, Grayson men have come to expect the many wives "sacrifice." LOL

Has it become a status quo?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Where Next for the GSN?
Post by ldwechsler   » Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:42 pm

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Posts: 1235
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cthia wrote:
tlb wrote:Another piece about what is next for Grayson.....Allison Harrington. Remember the conversation she had with the head of the Grayson Church? The one where she laid out what she had discovered about why the massively high rate of stillbirths and miscarrages of male children, and that she had a way to deal with that?
Presuming that Grayson is going to go along with the Beowulf Code and NOT ALLOW parents to select for one sex over the other, there are going to be a couple of things happening as soon as all of this works it's way though the Church and the solution (aka gene cleaning) make it out to the public in addressing both the unintended consequences of the fixed modification AND the rising birth rate.
Yeah, rising. Some of that because there will be a lot of families who are likely to try for sons- and along with those sons will also (remember there will be both the medical ethics and Church position on unborn children) be more daughters being born- and people will keep trying for sons. Like opening the floodgates because they can expect more pregnancies to be successful & result in sons. It's just that to have that result there will also be a number of more daughters to go along with it.

I am with you on most of what you write, but you lose me on the part that I have highlighted. After Alison's fixes work their way into the population; there would actually be fewer births, if people are only trying until they have a boy. The reason is that the fix makes it easier to produce a healthy boy; up until now pregnancy was much more likely to produce a girl, because a male fetus was more prone to result in a miscarriage.
I do not have the math working, but after the fix is in the proportions should be close to 50-50. Prior to the fix out of every 8 pregnancies, 4 would result in girls, 3 in miscarriages and then 1 healthy boy (I did not look up the ratio: this was for 1 boy to every 4 girls. If it really is 1 to 3, then the numbers out of 6 are 3, 2 and 1). Someone else can figure the expected population rate, if each family (or mother) stops having children after the first boy is born (or some limit on pregnancies is hit); when the odds of not having a boy are 50% after the fix versus either 87.5% or 83.3% before the fix. Whether this is one per family or one per mother is another variable.

PS. AAC describes the Moriarty system, it does not mention the system defense called Mycroft.

If all this comes to pass, will a point come in the future that Grayson's polygamist model will become a problem? Seeing that many, if not most, Grayson men have come to expect the many wives "sacrifice." LOL

Has it become a status quo?[/quote]


Remember things are changing. More people are moving to and from Grayson. A lot of changes will be happening but some will happen over time and a lot of people will be happy to move. A lot of Grayson women who have no husbands can move to other planets.

Likely the tradition will remain for a long while thanks to prolong. Marriages will not break upm etc. But a huge portion of the people in the polymarriages are older and will not have prolong.

Lots of variables.
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Re: Where Next for the GSN?
Post by noblehunter   » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:05 pm

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Captain (Junior Grade)

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I think it takes a generation or two for changes in medical take to bend the birth rate. The first generation with the fix will still have lots of kids because that's their expectation. It's next generation that will adapt to the new normal.

Though I expect Grayson's birthrate will stay high as the costs of terraforming comes down with the domes. Implicit in honorverse world building is that empty worlds overcome the low birth rates correlated with a developed economy.
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Re: Where Next for the GSN?
Post by tlb   » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:21 pm

tlb
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Posts: 3854
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:34 am

noblehunter wrote:I think it takes a generation or two for changes in medical take to bend the birth rate. The first generation with the fix will still have lots of kids because that's their expectation. It's next generation that will adapt to the new normal.

Though I expect Grayson's birthrate will stay high as the costs of terraforming comes down with the domes. Implicit in honorverse world building is that empty worlds overcome the low birth rates correlated with a developed economy.

I agree that I also expect birth rate and population to grow with better health and a simpler food supply.

However, if the assumption is made that a woman or family will stop having children when the first healthy boy is born, then that would result in lowering the birth rate (because the odds of having a healthy boy have dramatically increased).
I do not expect people to stop having children after the first boy is born. Instead I expect them to aim for whatever number of children they think would be ideal. After a generation or two, when the number of marriageable men becomes about equal to that of women; then it is possible that monogamy will become more prevalent.
Do we know whether the number of wives prior to the fix being applied is a function of economic status? It does not seem likely that a minimum wage worker could afford what a weathy man could.
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Re: Where Next for the GSN?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:48 pm

TFLYTSNBN

tlb wrote:
Brigade XO wrote:Another piece about what is next for Grayson.....Allison Harrington. Remember the conversation she had with the head of the Grayson Church? The one where she laid out what she had discovered about why the massively high rate of stillbirths and miscarrages of male children, and that she had a way to deal with that?
Presuming that Grayson is going to go along with the Beowulf Code and NOT ALLOW parents to select for one sex over the other, there are going to be a couple of things happening as soon as all of this works it's way though the Church and the solution (aka gene cleaning) make it out to the public in addressing both the unintended consequences of the fixed modification AND the rising birth rate.
Yeah, rising. Some of that because there will be a lot of families who are likely to try for sons- and along with those sons will also (remember there will be both the medical ethics and Church position on unborn children) be more daughters being born- and people will keep trying for sons. Like opening the floodgates because they can expect more pregnancies to be successful & result in sons. It's just that to have that result there will also be a number of more daughters to go along with it.

I am with you on most of what you write, but you lose me on the part that I have highlighted. After Alison's fixes work their way into the population; there would actually be fewer births, if people are only trying until they have a boy. The reason is that the fix makes it easier to produce a healthy boy; up until now pregnancy was much more likely to produce a girl, because a male fetus was more prone to result in a miscarriage.
I do not have the math working, but after the fix is in the proportions should be close to 50-50. Prior to the fix out of every 8 pregnancies, 4 would result in girls, 3 in miscarriages and then 1 healthy boy (I did not look up the ratio: this was for 1 boy to every 4 girls. If it really is 1 to 3, then the numbers out of 6 are 3, 2 and 1). Someone else can figure the expected population rate, if each family (or mother) stops having children after the first boy is born (or some limit on pregnancies is hit); when the odds of not having a boy are 50% after the fix versus either 87.5% or 83.3% before the fix. Whether this is one per family or one per mother is another variable.

PS. AAC describes the Moriarty system, it does not mention the system defense called Mycroft.


May be the Graysons will just keep on having babies because they want to? Most real men will attest that caring for babies is almost as much fun as making babies. Toddlers are hilarious. Who knows, may be Graysons will keep having extra girl babies (develop a spermicide that selectively kills Y chromosone sperm) because the men just enjoy polygyny and the women want to become the politically empowered majority.
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