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Disadvantages of Allies

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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by cthia   » Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:11 pm

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winsettz wrote:The entirely prudent move to avoid tech jealousy would be tranche the transfers and focus on non-military equipment. Even if Manticore and Haven decided to share everything in production, it would take Haven some time to re-engineer for their existing technical base. Manticores tech-base is running, and Haven was at a crawl, but is now walking, and about to power-walk.

The alliance only works so long as everyone alive trusts each other. Once the current generation is out, the next one is probably going to muck it all up again.


That's the part of the ice whose thickness we're unsure about - regime changes. Grayson knows about the phenomena quite well when High Ridge damn near ran Manticore and the alliance into the ground. What will happen to the stability of the Havenite end of the alliance when Eloise is gone? When Benjamin is gone and the uppity Keys get confident?

I'm more concerned about Grayson in the absence of Benjamin than anyone else.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by cthia   » Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:24 pm

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You just know the Keys are going to go for a restoration of Grayson to before the Mayhew Restoration. They've already failed on one attempt of their own "Goodbye Protector Benjamin."

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by noblehunter   » Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:51 pm

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I think the trend in history is that the third generation screws it up. The immediate successors of the current leadership will know perfectly well how bad things could get if it all goes sideways. It's the people after them that will be much more likely to forget the costs of blowing things up.
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by kzt   » Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:30 pm

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noblehunter wrote:I think the trend in history is that the third generation screws it up. The immediate successors of the current leadership will know perfectly well how bad things could get if it all goes sideways. It's the people after them that will be much more likely to forget the costs of blowing things up.

Not necessarily. Moralists are capable of doing the most astonishingly stupid thing while preening. For example, Jimmah Carter, who felt the Shah of Iran was too violent against his citizens as about 3000 people had been killed in attempting to overthrow him. So he support the Islamic opposition and they promptly stared a wave of mass executions and took the US Embassy staff hostage. So he replaced a less than perfect government that was friendly to the US and committed to modernization with a murderous anti-US government committed to bringing back the 7th century via international terrorism.
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by Vince   » Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:15 pm

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noblehunter wrote:I think the trend in history is that the third generation screws it up. The immediate successors of the current leadership will know perfectly well how bad things could get if it all goes sideways. It's the people after them that will be much more likely to forget the costs of blowing things up.

Very true, but with prolong available in the Honorverse, the generations are lasting much longer, so the first generation will be alive for 200 or so more years to keep help things on an even keel. (How long they will be in power is another question entirely.) Possibly offsetting the length of time the first generation will be around, the second generation may not fully be on the scene (as a result of people delaying having children) until much later with prolong available, so they might have more in common with the third and later generations.
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by cthia   » Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:56 pm

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kzt wrote:
cthia wrote:What exactly is the continued carrot and stick vis a vis Haven and Manticore? I know, I know. Spoilers. Price of being a virgin. Drats and rats. :?

I think it's "We, the RMN, will give you, the RHN, the entirety of the last 70 years of R&D. You, the RHN, promise that you won't come and kick our asses using your massively larger navy and your total understanding of our technology. And if you do come and kick our asses we won't invite the President to the Queen's birthday celebration."


:lol: So funny, but so true. I nearly split a gut on this one, kzt.

Still, here on our own insignificant blue dot in space, we have NATO to exact penalties on belligerents. In the Honorverse, what recourse does an ally have if a treaty is broken? Who do you call, except the military reserve and your own government to increase spending to prepare for war? Which isn't a given either, if your own government has its thumb in its mouth, or up its anal orifice, and sitting way up on a high ridge to boot.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by munroburton   » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:09 pm

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Vince wrote:
noblehunter wrote:I think the trend in history is that the third generation screws it up. The immediate successors of the current leadership will know perfectly well how bad things could get if it all goes sideways. It's the people after them that will be much more likely to forget the costs of blowing things up.

Very true, but with prolong available in the Honorverse, the generations are lasting much longer, so the first generation will be alive for 200 or so more years to keep help things on an even keel. (How long they will be in power is another question entirely.) Possibly offsetting the length of time the first generation will be around, the second generation may not fully be on the scene (as a result of people delaying having children) until much later with prolong available, so they might have more in common with the third and later generations.


I'd give then twenty to fifty years at most, not two hundred. Whilst prolong may cause a slowdown in generational transfers, most of the allies(aside from the Graysons and Andermani) face more short-termist democratic constraints.

Haven in particular is still rediscovering democracy after around two hundred years of oligarchial rule. But even Manticore is experiencing dilution of its more conservative setup - especially when the constitutional provisions of the Talbott annexation kicks in. Even before that, their Lords lost the power of the purse when High Ridge was replaced, so the Commons can now override them.

Grayson and Andermani might find it easier to maintain vigilance for longer but even they have domestic concerns. The former simply doesn't have the resources of any one of the others, let alone all of them together and the latter could wind up more focused on digesting Silesia.
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by cthia   » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:45 pm

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There is always the disadvantage of having to rely on an ally's vetting prowess in a pinch. Resulting in it biting you in the ass. Vetting lapses can exact terrible costs.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by ldwechsler   » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:59 am

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cthia wrote:There is always the disadvantage of having to rely on an ally's vetting prowess in a pinch. Resulting in it biting you in the ass. Vetting lapses can exact terrible costs.



Projecting that far into the future is difficult. For example, prolong could get a boost and people might live two centuries. Since they might only have a couple of children, change would be very slow.

Or they might have a lot of them.

There are too many factors to predict.
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Re: Disadvantages of Allies
Post by cthia   » Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:36 am

cthia
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ldwechsler wrote:
cthia wrote:There is always the disadvantage of having to rely on an ally's vetting prowess in a pinch. Resulting in it biting you in the ass. Vetting lapses can exact terrible costs.



Projecting that far into the future is difficult. For example, prolong could get a boost and people might live two centuries. Since they might only have a couple of children, change would be very slow.

Or they might have a lot of them.

There are too many factors to predict.


Indeed. That's why the most competent governments view vetting as an ongoing process, vetting at regular intervals. Just because you are vetted today doesn't mean you will be tomorrow.

We discussed vetting in the Ramblings thread. Here's a transplant of one of my posts. . .

Had a conversation with a couple of acquaintances who have government security clearances and I was informed that they have to be vetted every five years. Naive lil ole me thought it was a one time and you're done ordeal. I took their lead and researched it a bit further online and yep, England, The U.S. and other countries vet at regular intervals depending on the job, situation, exposure and risk factor.

It was explained to me that the vetting process may become even more aggressive as you are exposed to various risky conditions. Part of the vetting process may include intensive psychiatric evaluations if necessary. Depending on where and what you were exposed to, vetting can take on an entirely different "tailored" turn, e.g., if you are exposed to a region across the pond where terrorist cells run amok, you automatically become a higher risk and may be vetted to catch any rogue elements -- perhaps having been approached by said criminal cells.

Apparently there are unlimited circumstances that can increase one's ever changing risk factor and alter the size and aggressiveness of the sieve.

Appears as if Grayson's armsmen and perhaps the Maccabeus group should have been part of a consistent ongoing scheduled vetting program. Bottom line, Grayson's armsmen should have been vetted several times over by now. IMO.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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