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SPOILER end of the MA

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by ywing14   » Mon May 14, 2018 1:28 am

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Sigs wrote:
ywing14 wrote:First of your statement about the Lenny Dets is extremely vague. There is no text evidence they have a large number of them. They're in the process of building them.
We know that the MA has 28 Shark-class ships and I don't remember which book it was but the Leonard Detweiler class was mentioned as being build with significantly more hulls. That could mean 40 or 400 but I am assuming it is on the low side at 40 ships. I am making a guess that the significantly more Leonard Detweilers don't mean in the hundreds it just means significantly more compared to the 28 Sharks they have.


Additionally you keep ignoring that the fact that the MAlign's strategy for its end game is political not military. The MAlign doesn't want to militarily impose its values on the rest of humanity. They know their will be a backlash if they do this. That's why they want to accomplish their goals through political means. Certainly there has been a military component to their operations but they aren't going for world domination by the sword.
You can assume that because you are privy to their part of the book, the GA is not so they cannot assume that the MA's strategy is political in nature and not a military one. Thats what you keep ignoring, you have to work with what the GA knows and the risks they will take by making assumptions like that.

46 Million people still isn't a justification to build ships.
Ok so wait for 100 million more? Or a couple of billion? At what point do you say enough is enough?


As everyone has pointed out and I am sure the pundits in Honorverse would point out their deaths were not the result of ship to ship weapons but a bomb. SD(P)s can't stop bombs. What happened at Beowulf justifies pumping money into your intelligence resources and ensuring the hunt for the MAlign continues. Not building ships that as we've also pointed out can't even detect the spider drive. In the real world you have to operate based off of the information you have. That is essentially what the queen is doing at the end of the book. She's acting rational, your arguments are not rational.
And what seems to be a blind spot is that as far as the GA knows those 46 million deaths are just the opening chapter in a very long war. They cannot afford to assume that the MA doesn't want a military conflict just because they have fought by proxy for the better part of the 2 year war, they have to assume that there is a military muscle that the MA is willing to unleash at the right moment.


As for the bit about the stealth? That applies to fixed defences, pods, LACs, DDs, CLs, CA, BCs and SD,s so if you are not going to build SD(P)'s for protection because they cannot see the enemy YET why bother wasting all of the other resources building missile pods and light combatants when the mission is so futile?


So if we went with you 400 number that would still be less than the combined GA fleet. Which doesn't include the Andy's would I'm sure would be thrilled to contribute ships to the destruction of the MAlign.


You're right, but so far nothing the MAlign has done as indicated they plan on a direct military campaign. All of their military actions have essentially been convert in nature with the intent of stoking the fire between the GA and the SL. I don't understand your obsession with the 46 million who were killed at Beowulf for the justification for building more ships. The attack there wasn't caused by a MAlign fleet action. It was caused by bombs. Additionally, how would it be the opening chapter in a long war? The war started in the Talbot sector a while ago. What happened in Beowulf was merely a continuation of that war. One in which despite a GA fleet, Mycroft, and tons of recon drones was still successful.

But your own argument about what we know and what the GA knows works against you here. The GA knows to this point they have not been attacked conventionally by the MAlign. There is no indication they will be attacked conventionally with the intent to occupy any GA worlds.

As for building other units they make sense for several reasons. A) their faster and in the case of LACs you might be able to swarm a Lenny Det and possibly get close enough to get some useful data. B) You need to protect your merchant marine against pirates who will likely spring up with the dissolving of the Protectorates. Finally C) You'll need them to scout systems to try and find Darius.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Weird Harold   » Mon May 14, 2018 1:54 am

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Sigs wrote:
Weird Harold wrote:Why don't we let Honor address that...


Nowhere in there did it say anything about anti-piracy and commerce protection for the galaxy provided by the GA. ...


Probably because they are NOT going to provide "for the galaxy," they are going to provide for those they have treaties or significant trade with. As they have done for centuries, they are going to provide commerce protect for THEIR merchant marine.

FWIW, the MAlign has always engaged in commerce raiding against the SKM; Edward Saganami was killed protecting a convoy from a flotilla of pirates sponsored/financed by "Manpower." The RMN has responded to such threats with Cruisers -- preferably Battle Cruisers. As of the end of UH, there was no ship in any known Navy that could challenge an RMN Battle Cruiser and survive. There were damned few that could challenge a Roland and survive, one-on-one.

In the whole "epilogue" I quoted from before, Empress Elizabeth also details why they are NOT going to be expanding their SD(p) fleet; upgrade and replace, yes, but not EXPAND. Beowulf is going to upgrade its SD force with "Bolthole Specials" and eventually, Grayson, Manticore, Haven, and the rest of the GA (Maya, Torch, Erewhon, Hypatia, etc) will upgrade to a Standardized SD(P) which will be a refinement of the Bolthole Specials currently in the building plans.

Those SD(P)s will be distributed in SDFs and Nodal Forces, but the "grunt work" is going to be done by Cruisers and Destroyers just as commerce protection has always been done.

Counters for the MAlign tech they know of will be developed, and extrapolation of that known tech will lead to possible counters for even the Lenny Dets -- once the stealth aspect of the Spider Drive is pierced, the LDs become fat, slow, targets. Hasta and Silver Bullets are bigger threats than the LDs or Renaissance Factor's combined might, now and in the future.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by pappilon   » Mon May 14, 2018 5:11 am

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Weird Harold wrote: ((Snipped because I totally agree)

Counters for the MAlign tech they know of will be developed, and extrapolation of that known tech will lead to possible counters for even the Lenny Dets -- once the stealth aspect of the Spider Drive is pierced, the LDs become fat, slow, targets. Hasta and Silver Bullets are bigger threats than the LDs or Renaissance Factor's combined might, now and in the future.


Don't really disagree here either, only to say they definitely see the need for much improved sensors on both their sensor arrays and drones, and a deepening both outward and inward of their sensor arrays (nets). And something will have to be done to discover and eliminate the obvious weakness of Mycroft.
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The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by ldwechsler   » Mon May 14, 2018 8:02 am

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pappilon wrote:
Weird Harold wrote: ((Snipped because I totally agree)

Counters for the MAlign tech they know of will be developed, and extrapolation of that known tech will lead to possible counters for even the Lenny Dets -- once the stealth aspect of the Spider Drive is pierced, the LDs become fat, slow, targets. Hasta and Silver Bullets are bigger threats than the LDs or Renaissance Factor's combined might, now and in the future.


Don't really disagree here either, only to say they definitely see the need for much improved sensors on both their sensor arrays and drones, and a deepening both outward and inward of their sensor arrays (nets). And something will have to be done to discover and eliminate the obvious weakness of Mycroft.


Exactly. At that point, the GA doesn't need all that many ships of the wall. They need more commerce protectors, etc.

But they can work very hard to upgrade tech. A lot of the best weapons developers in the galaxy are working together. They can upgrade a lot of the existing ships.

Develop the Apollo capability for cruisers and destroyers, for example. Sensors will be upgraded to deal with the Spider Drive. Chances are new ships will get the streak drive.

More treecats will join intelligence services. That might hamper planets that provide protection for pirates. After all, if pirates are caught, they can be drained for real information.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by n7axw   » Mon May 14, 2018 9:15 am

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I think that there is at least one thing that needs to be said here that some of the previous posts seem ambigious about.

The Alliance is at war. There is nothing "peacetime" about the current situation. While I don't agree with Sigs response to that, he is right at least that far.

However, the nature of the conflict has changed to one that calls upon intelligence and covert assets. No way to deal with this with SD(p)s at least for now. Nor is there any serious reason to believe that the 800 SD(p)s they have on hand would be inadequate for dealing with the situation should we move into a phase where we can use them effectively.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by pappilon   » Mon May 14, 2018 1:15 pm

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n7axw wrote:I think that there is at least one thing that needs to be said here that some of the previous posts seem ambigious about.

The Alliance is at war. There is nothing "peacetime" about the current situation. While I don't agree with Sigs response to that, he is right at least that far.

However, the nature of the conflict has changed to one that calls upon intelligence and covert assets. No way to deal with this with SD(p)s at least for now. Nor is there any serious reason to believe that the 800 SD(p)s they have on hand would be inadequate for dealing with the situation should we move into a phase where we can use them effectively.

Don

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WAR: (Merriam Webster) A state od (usually) open and declared conflict between states or nations. (2) A period of such armed conflict.

How do you define war in the context that exists at the end of the book?. How can you fight a war when you do not know who or where the enemy is? How can you be at war when there is no fleet that has just crashed your system with hostile intent? Or one you have been warned is approaching (eminent threat)?

Yes there is an enemy out there somewhere, There always is. At best this is a cold war and the military is treating it as such. They are willing to spare no expense in the (almost certainly) futile attempt to locate this invisible enemy. They are actively pursuing weapons research and development. Not building gazillions of the hugest ships possible is not the same thing as not upgrading their existing ones and, as developments demand, rolling out new iterations of ships.

Not denying or minimizing the threat, but a state of war is not what the situation is.
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The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by n7axw   » Mon May 14, 2018 4:44 pm

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pappilon wrote:
n7axw wrote:I think that there is at least one thing that needs to be said here that some of the previous posts seem ambigious about.

The Alliance is at war. There is nothing "peacetime" about the current situation. While I don't agree with Sigs response to that, he is right at least that far.

However, the nature of the conflict has changed to one that calls upon intelligence and covert assets. No way to deal with this with SD(p)s at least for now. Nor is there any serious reason to believe that the 800 SD(p)s they have on hand would be inadequate for dealing with the situation should we move into a phase where we can use them effectively.

Don

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WAR: (Merriam Webster) A state od (usually) open and declared conflict between states or nations. (2) A period of such armed conflict.

How do you define war in the context that exists at the end of the book?. How can you fight a war when you do not know who or where the enemy is? How can you be at war when there is no fleet that has just crashed your system with hostile intent? Or one you have been warned is approaching (eminent threat)?

Yes there is an enemy out there somewhere, There always is. At best this is a cold war and the military is treating it as such. They are willing to spare no expense in the (almost certainly) futile attempt to locate this invisible enemy. They are actively pursuing weapons research and development. Not building gazillions of the hugest ships possible is not the same thing as not upgrading their existing ones and, as developments demand, rolling out new iterations of ships.

Not denying or minimizing the threat, but a state of war is not what the situation is.


Ha! How many of America's conflicts have been accompanied by a formal declaration since WW2? Not many. The closest we get is authorization by Congress to use force.

The GA on the other hand, faces an enemy committed to its destruction and is committed to the destruction of that enemy. Both OB and what happened at Beowulf were acts of war resulting in millions of casualties. That the GA is unable at this time to pursue a conventional strategy doesn't change the fundamental reality of the matter one bit...Webster not withstanding.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by PeterZ   » Mon May 14, 2018 5:00 pm

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pappilon wrote:
Not denying or minimizing the threat, but a state of war is not what the situation is.
n7axw wrote:
Ha! How many of America's conflicts have been accompanied by a formal declaration since WW2? Not many. The closest we get is authorization by Congress to use force.

The GA on the other hand, faces an enemy committed to its destruction and is committed to the destruction of that enemy. Both OB and what happened at Beowulf were acts of war resulting in millions of casualties. That the GA is unable at this time to pursue a conventional strategy doesn't change the fundamental reality of the matter one bit...Webster not withstanding.

Don

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I am with Don here. The MAlign declared war on Haven and Manticore. They may not have made that declaration public, but they have acted as if a state of war exists with both these star nations. The GA have declared war on that polity. The only resources the GA can devote to this war at the moment are inteligence gathering and counter intel assets. The Afgan War, a hot war, was largely fought by US intel assets looking for the enemy. Once the enemy's location is discovered, active military operations commence.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Mon May 14, 2018 10:45 pm

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ywing14 wrote:Pirates generally avoid direct confrontations with Warships. They don't make their money destroying Warships, they make by plundering cargo and ransoming crews. They don't want to fight the GA that's why convoy escorts are important. additionally blowing a single pirate ship out of space doesn't take as many missiles as battling a fleet.

How is a MAlign pirate fleet going to bleed the GA by dozens of cruisers and destroyers monthly? The only ships that can match the GA in combat either belong to GA or the Malign. Any "pirate fleet" they'd use would want to avoid using their own vessels as it would risk exposing the Malign to being found. Could a plethora of pirates overwhelm a GA vessel. Sure it's possible but without literally enlisting hundreds of pirate vessels I don't see what your saying as possible.


Sounds like what's needed are some purpose-built Q-ships. They look and act like frieghters, but their weapons and armor are built to military specs. Don't just make pirates stay away, blow them out of space.
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Re: SPOILER end of the MA
Post by kzt   » Tue May 15, 2018 3:02 am

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Q-ships are a horribly expensive approach. And effectively worthless against a raider who just shoots at them from a couple LM out. There is a reason no navy in the honorverse runs them, and it isn’t that nobody though of them.
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