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New Uncompromising snippet #2

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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by cthia   » Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:55 pm

cthia
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runsforcelery wrote:
Uncompromising Honor wrote:]“That’s probably true,” she said now. “And given how long it took us to reverse-engineer the splitter technology even after we ‘acquired’ a few specimens to work from,


cthia wrote:What is this splitter technology? Does it have to do with the gravity lensing in the warheads?


runsforcelery wrote:If you were the League --- or, rather, competent intelligence officers working for the League --- would you unquestioningly accept that just because the Manties say Mesa is behind verything Mesa really is behind everything? They don't know if someone is playing the Manties and selling them a bill of goods which depends on the fact that Manticore and Haven both hate Mesa so much that they'll even but the notion of a conspiracy that's been around totally undetected for 5-600 years if they're told its coming from Mesa.

Daud and the others have come far enough to accept (unlike anyone else in the League's so-called intelligence agencies) that there really is a conspiracy out there which is manipulating the League's policy towards the SEM (and now the GA). Until they know for sure who it is, though, they aren't about to invest in the notion that it has to be Mesa . . . and don the intellectual blinders that come with "knowing" who the enemy is.

The truth is, these are probably a group of the most effective Honorverse in-universe analysts you guys have ever seen. These people are smart and they're dedicated. Which makes them dangerous.


As for the splitter technology, I know this has been explained somewhere in the books. A missile's impeller nodes generate such concentrated gravity "waves" hat, without the splitter technology Manticore developed to insert a baffle between them, impeller nodes would have to be at least fifty or sixty meters apart to prevent the first set of nodes from "eating" the second set before it can come on line. That's why you couldn't build a launcher-sized MDM until Roger's boffins came up with the splitter.


cthia wrote:I understand that part, RFC. But my internalizing is that if the Manties are correct that there is a hidden player in the works, then they're probably also most likely correct about the name on the hidden face? If a=b and b=c then a=c.

Except that neobarbs can't possibly be batting a thousand?

Appears George rang the bell regarding the splitter tech.



Nope. It's their job to always remember that b may not equal c. Suppose that I can convince the League to go after the Manties. Suppose that the last thing I want is for the Manties to actually appear reasonable and rational in the eyes of the Solly public. And then suppose that I say to myself, "You know, the Manties are fanatics about Mesa and the slave trade, but most of the League could give a damn. So how's about I find a way to suggest to the Manties that a batch of evil genetic supermen from Mesa have been trying to overthrow the galaxy for six hundred years and then get them to actually say that for the public record? Genetic supermen? Conspiracies that have been hidden for six hundred years and are able to play the most powerful nation in human history as a violin?! Oh, come on, here! Nobody's going to buy that, so the default assumption will be that the Manties are either lunatics or lying."

Daud and company aren't saying that is what's happening. They're saying it's what may be happening and that it is their job and overriding responsibility to accept nothing at face value until they can prove it one way or the other. As such, they avoid doing that even in their own minds, because they can't afford to cultivate a habit of thought which may turn out to be inaccurate, since it will affect how they interpret new data as it becomes available.


Ok, thanks. It all makes sense. They are keeping an open mind and remaining completely neutral all along the way and not allowing themselves to be influenced by anyone anymore, let alone enemy combatants.* I guess I shouldn't begrudge them for finally going about it correctly, even if they are so late to the intel party.

*As I think about it, it's the correct attitude. I remember a similar discussion about vetting, and how a government should effect their own vetting and not necessarily trust, wholeheartedly, even an ally's intel.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by Bill Woods   » Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:01 pm

Bill Woods
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runsforcelery wrote: “Yes, Your Grace.” The newly promoted captain faced White Haven from the smart wall. “My Lord, what you’re about to see was pulled out of a personal com exchange between Admiral Filareta’s communications officer and the com officer aboard Leonhard Euler. We’ve abstracted the relevant material, stripped away the rest of the message, and enhanced what we kept. I’d like to recommend Midshipman — I’m sorry, it’s Ensign now; Her Grace’s authority — Elijah Dimas for some well-deserved recognition for spotting it, too. I’m not sure it would have popped the filters before we scrubbed and enhanced it.”

White Haven nodded his understanding.

“We don’t have any visual of the critical speakers,” Reynolds continued. “They were outside the pickup’s field of view, but the voice recognition software is ninety-nine-point-nine percent confident in its IDs.”

“That could be a problem down the road, Hamish,” Givens put in, then shrugged when he looked at her. “If we go public with this, there are going to be plenty of Sollies ready to point out how ‘convenient’ for us it is that all we have are disembodied voices.”

“Maybe yes, and maybe no, Pat.” Honor’s voice drew Givens and White Haven’s eyes back to her. “We’ve got all the rest of the message with this embedded in it. Anybody who wants to can do her own forensics on it. Not,” she grimaced, “that anyone in Old Chicago’s likely to be interested in determining whether or not it’s genuine.”

The Euler's com officer survived, right? Seems like she could be of some use if she vouches for her recording.
----
Imagined conversation:
Admiral [noting yet another Manty tech surprise]:
XO, what's the budget for the ONI?
Vice Admiral: I don't recall exactly, sir. Several billion quatloos.
Admiral: ... What do you suppose they did with all that money?
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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by pappilon   » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:42 am

pappilon
Rear Admiral

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Bill Woods wrote:
The Euler's com officer survived, right? Seems like she could be of some use if she vouches for her recording.



Could be. May not wanna be. Still "consorting with the enemy."
Makes her the next in line to be vilified along side the two admirals Mike Henke sent back to Earth with the battle sensor records. Not sure she wants to be that captain. Won't make any difference anyway, not to the brain-dead in charge.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by Slneezy   » Tue Apr 03, 2018 11:10 am

Slneezy
Lieutenant Commander

Posts: 125
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runsforcelery wrote:
Nope. It's their job to always remember that b may not equal c. Suppose that I can convince the League to go after the Manties. Suppose that the last thing I want is for the Manties to actually appear reasonable and rational in the eyes of the Solly public. And then suppose that I say to myself, "You know, the Manties are fanatics about Mesa and the slave trade, but most of the League could give a damn. So how's about I find a way to suggest to the Manties that a batch of evil genetic supermen from Mesa have been trying to overthrow the galaxy for six hundred years and then get them to actually say that for the public record? Genetic supermen? Conspiracies that have been hidden for six hundred years and are able to play the most powerful nation in human history as a violin?! Oh, come on, here! Nobody's going to buy that, so the default assumption will be that the Manties are either lunatics or lying."



On the other hand Oyster Bay/Yawata Strike confirms that there is something out there. Since every major power currently presented either flat out couldn't do it and/or had no reason to the only option is either a Mesan conspiracy - or another conpiracy that plans on blaming the attacks on Mesa.

Occam's Razor seems to heavily favor Mesa/the Aligment being the conspiracy.

Sure cyborg conspiracy based on Sharpton with the aim of discrediting biological research might be in the realm of purely mathematic posibility - but it seems vastly less likely than the Mesa being the culprit.
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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by phillies   » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:15 pm

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Slneezy wrote:
runsforcelery wrote:
Nope. It's their job to always remember that b may not equal c. Suppose that I can convince the League to go after the Manties. Suppose that the last thing I want is for the Manties to actually appear reasonable and rational in the eyes of the Solly public. And then suppose that I say to myself, "You know, the Manties are fanatics about Mesa and the slave trade, but most of the League could give a damn. So how's about I find a way to suggest to the Manties that a batch of evil genetic supermen from Mesa have been trying to overthrow the galaxy for six hundred years and then get them to actually say that for the public record? Genetic supermen? Conspiracies that have been hidden for six hundred years and are able to play the most powerful nation in human history as a violin?! Oh, come on, here! Nobody's going to buy that, so the default assumption will be that the Manties are either lunatics or lying."



On the other hand Oyster Bay/Yawata Strike confirms that there is something out there. Since every major power currently presented either flat out couldn't do it and/or had no reason to the only option is either a Mesan conspiracy - or another conpiracy that plans on blaming the attacks on Mesa.

Occam's Razor seems to heavily favor Mesa/the Aligment being the conspiracy.

Sure cyborg conspiracy based on Sharpton with the aim of discrediting biological research might be in the realm of purely mathematic posibility - but it seems vastly less likely than the Mesa being the culprit.


Alternatively it was a Weber creation, the invincible Orglon Empire. We know they are not there in this universe, but the book characters do not.
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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by Slneezy   » Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:25 pm

Slneezy
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phillies wrote:Alternatively it was a Weber creation, the invincible Orglon Empire. We know they are not there in this universe, but the book characters do not.


'But it was previously unknown aliens' assumed no sensible analyst ever - particularly related to complex plots that require a good understanding of human society and politics.

Particularly when *mysterious unknown invaders* could just ignore the Eridani Edict since nobody knows about them.
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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by pappilon   » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:10 pm

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Slneezy wrote:
phillies wrote:Alternatively it was a Weber creation, the invincible Orglon Empire. We know they are not there in this universe, but the book characters do not.


'But it was previously unknown aliens' assumed no sensible analyst ever - particularly related to complex plots that require a good understanding of human society and politics.

Particularly when *mysterious unknown invaders* could just ignore the Eridani Edict since nobody knows about them.


Giant space Hamsters? Catbert & Dogbert? We has met the enemy and he is us? Vorlons?

Yes. Phillies, there is someone out there. Now make the logical connection that that something must therefore be Genetic Supermen Manipulating the Planet Mesa into Manipulating The SL & SLN to Aid Them in Universe Domination.
Or make the connection that it is The System Mannerheim...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by Slneezy   » Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:57 pm

Slneezy
Lieutenant Commander

Posts: 125
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2012 2:18 pm

pappilon wrote:
Giant space Hamsters? Catbert & Dogbert? We has met the enemy and he is us? Vorlons?

Yes. Phillies, there is someone out there. Now make the logical connection that that something must therefore be Genetic Supermen Manipulating the Planet Mesa into Manipulating The SL & SLN to Aid Them in Universe Domination.
Or make the connection that it is The System Mannerheim...


I agree that they've got no way of making the Mannerheim connection.

The general Mesa stuff on the other hand... well it did get Heaven and Manticore to ally with one another so that's one big point for verosimility. Likewise Beowulf's signing off on it - yeah, they hate Mesa with a passion but the Beowulfan (Beowulfer? Beowulfen?) government is unlikely to support Manticore's very bold claims without any sort of proof.


Which basically brings things back to Occam's Razor - aka is there a Mesan conspiracy maneuvering things in the SL or is there another conspiracy that has faked the Mesan conspiracy to maneuver the GA while simultaneously maneuvering the SL.


Sure it would be unwise to utterly dismiss the later posibility... but the former is considerably more plausible.
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Re: New Uncompromising snippet #2
Post by noblehunter   » Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:40 pm

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To paraphrase a certain detective: once you've accepted the impossible, anything else, no matter how unlikely, must be considered possible.

The idea that a secret organization manipulating the SL, Manticore, and the PRH is so unlikely that any other conceivable scenario is equally likely. There's precious little difference in the probability of MA existing and the probability of a organization pretending to be MA existing.
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