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A Call to Insurrection Speculations

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Re: A Call to Insurrection Speculations
Post by saber964   » Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:39 pm

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boballab wrote:There is another possibility that is being overlooked if you look at the timeline of years and events.

1. Stephanie Harrington was born in the year 1505 PD.

2. At the start of "Treecat Wars" Stephanie is 16 years old which places the year the events of the book takes place at 1521/1522 time frame.

3. In Treecat Wars it is stated that one of the richest Lords on Manticore will lose a lot of their fortune if they lose their land options on Sphinx and they expect that the worth of them will triple in the next 30 to 40 years:
Over the course of the next thirty to forty T-years, that value would at least triple, and the bankable value they already represented had been used as security for loans totaling just over a billion dollars. Those loans were critical to the Earldom of Frampton’s solvency, and their terms required full payment or refinancing within the next ten T-years. Repayment would be difficult or even impossible; refinancing would be a routine transaction . . . as long as the options’ value was maintained.

Treecat Wars Chapter 13

4. 30 years after Treecat Wars is the year 1551/2 and Stephanie will be 46 and would be heavily involved in the politics surrounding the Treecats. However that in an of itself would not get her a title and awarded the Order of Merit IMHO (which we know she had from "What Price Dreams") but there is this line from the story to think on:
Despite the SFS's best efforts, people are already beginning to forget what a monumental role she played in Sphinx's history—or that of the entire Star Kingdom, for that matter. Unfortunately, that was apparently the way she wanted it, and the Harrington family has steadfastly refused to release her private papers. Until they do, it's unlikely anyone will be able to do a job much better than Simmons'. Which is a pity."


Ponder on just what the Chief Ranger meant by the the highlighted part and just why the Harrington's never released her private papers even through Honor's day in 1921 PD.

5. I haven't found an exact date for when the 9th Amendment to the Manticore Constitution was passed but keep this in mind from "What Price Dreams" dealing with when the debate on the 9th started.
The fact that the Star Kingdom had been in existence for barely a hundred and thirty T-years when the debate began hadn't helped. The original Constitution had already been extensively modified and reinterpreted (very creatively indeed, in some cases) as the Crown, the Lords, and the Commons worked out the real balance of power. Indeed, one reason the Ninth Amendment had taken so long to ratify in the first place had been that the document it was intended to modify had been in such a state of flux.

130 T-years after first landing is the year 1546 PD 2 years after the crowning of Queen Elizabeth II and part of the flux in that statement would be her push for the changes at the end of "Call to Vengeance"

Would it be out of the realm of possibility that Axelrod gets wind of Framptons(and Gwen Adair sister to the Earl of Adair Hollow)financial problems and strikes a deal with them to help one another. Over throw the throne and your Treecat problems go away and Axelrod gets what they want. It is just a slight change in plans, instead of having an outside force over throwing the government to be Axelrod puppets you just support a coup, this is something we have seen time and again in the Shadow books on how Transtellars took over Verge planets.

Of course it could all be coincidence and the two most major and far lasting events in the Kingdoms history do not even touch one another.



Suggest you read the HoS section on Treecats it gives the year of the passing of the ninth amendment as 1568 PD and the date of 1685 PD decision of the Kings Bench banning any challenge of the Treecats sentience.
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Re: A Call to Insurrection Speculations
Post by HungryKing   » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:55 am

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Just noticed your post.
Yes I have read aCtV, nothing has actually happened to Breakwater yet, and his powerbase is still intact, yes two of his cronies are going to be in hot water, but he is simply being required to leave the government. He will try again if he can find a way, given his personality. He is also the perfect person for Llyn to work through, particularly since he is looking at the prospect of having a lot of fair weather friends.

As for Gavin, the podcast made a joke about him having a girlfriend who was an Axelrod operative. I, personally, think that the chess tech-head would be a perfect match for him, so long as Gavin can play. More seriously, Gavin's role thus far has been to be the face of the Manticoran nobility, as much as it becomes as it is in his time. Breakwater's camp is the prototype for the conservative association, which we know has somewhat formed by Roger II's time, but Gavin is the prototype for the standard shareholder peer. I do not think that he will change from that point, but I do think that his break from Breakwater might involved Breakwater's destruction, though I will note that the earldom hill not revert to the crown, unlike at least two of the first fifty peerages.

n7axw wrote:
HungryKing wrote:From the hints as to where Winterfell is potentially going the Axelrod operative decides that rather than conquest, he will try to co-opt the star kingdom, likely through Breakwater. The insurrection may be a phantom, groups within the star kingdom realize that the Axelrod operatives are the paymasters, maybe even through Andermandi information, and prepare to launch a coup against the lords in order to stop the co-option.
It could also be that the insurrection is Winterfell overthrowing Breakwater. Thus far all he has done is sabotage Breakwater by providing information to the queen which would force him to retreat, something he did only because he felt manipulating the queen, and needlessly provoking a constitutional crisis, in that manner was something that should not be done. So this could be Winterfell's moment to become cease being the apprentice and become the master.


Have you read "A Call to Vengeance?" What happens to Breakwater is in there. For that matter, it is noted in the timeline on the Wiki.. Also, given what is said about Winterfell in the recent podcast, it really doesn't sound like it is in the direction you are proposing.

Don

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Re: A Call to Insurrection Speculations
Post by n7axw   » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:59 pm

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In the recent podcast, RFC notes that Gavin is undergoing moral development. From the book we know that his frustration with Breakwater has been mounting.

Elizabeth seems confident that he has broken with Breakwater to the point that she is willing to make him the foreign secretary, a position she believes will be of increasing importance.

So we will have to wait and see how it all shakes out. :D

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: A Call to Insurrection Speculations
Post by Fox2!   » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:10 pm

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n7axw wrote:
Elizabeth seems confident that he has broken with Breakwater to the point that she is willing to make him the foreign secretary, a position she believes will be of increasing importance.


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I think Elizabeth sees the Foreign Ministry as a way to deepen the separation between Gavin and Breakwater, as well as a reward for services rendered (secretly) to the Crown, and as a sop to Breakwater's supporters, at least until she crushes him like the bug he (Breakwater) is.
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Re: A Call to Insurrection Speculations
Post by pappilon   » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:22 pm

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Fox2! wrote:
n7axw wrote:
Elizabeth seems confident that he has broken with Breakwater to the point that she is willing to make him the foreign secretary, a position she believes will be of increasing importance.


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I think Elizabeth sees the Foreign Ministry as a way to deepen the separation between Gavin and Breakwater, as well as a reward for services rendered (secretly) to the Crown, and as a sop to Breakwater's supporters, at least until she crushes him like the bug he (Breakwater) is.


IDK if it is to deepen the separation between Breakwater and Winterfell. Its mostly to plug the information leak running through the :idea: Foreign Secretary office to Breakwater.

Duh. Which will indeed deepen the separation between them when Gavin no longer provides that conduit. Ok, never mind.
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The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

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