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Watch the Solarian League's demise

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Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:07 am

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Snipped from a post buried in another thread"
cthia wrote:If the Harrington Plan is to work, they must fracture a big enough chunk of that 3000. Systems are not going to split on account of promises. "You'll send us some ships when? Oh hell no. We are not going to be the next Beowulf!"




The Solarian League looks like a "Fried Marble" and everyone expects the League to react like a Fried Marble under a big hammer.

The League is more like a Prince Rupert Drop and Beowulf will turn out to be the tail of the drop.

To witness the dissolution of the Solarian League, click here: https://youtu.be/xe-f4gokRBs?t=143
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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by JohnRoth   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:56 pm

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The thing people are missing is that, when Honor heads for Sol, she's going to have a bunch of Eradni Edict and Deneb Accord violations to discuss with the Solarian League hierarchy - at pulsar point if necessary.

Eradni Edict violations are sufficient to dismantle the existing government and replace it if necessary.
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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by cthia   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:13 pm

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Very cool post Harold. I only wasted about an hour watching related videos. :roll:

I just don't see how removing a handful of 2000 marbles out of a bag is going to make a difference. That it will even be noticeable. Financially, the Mandarins can just skim less cream to make up for spilt milk. Erase corruption and the League could probably shed a third of the systems and not affect the bottom line. Especially if the systems are random.

I keep thinking of notice to secede as claims to get a refund. It is hard to stay afloat when so many customers are asking for a refund. LOL

Even funnier when I think about the League courier vessel arriving in various systems for the normal payoff and they're told to pound sand. Then SL ships show up and then they're told to pound sand. Then what? KEW strikes or assault landings to do what exactly?

Will the Manticoran dollar become the global currency as a result?

All of these questions make me hold steadfast to the notion that the all encompassing process alone inherently takes more time than we are allowing for.

Again, Beowulf had the notion cooking on the burner for quite some time. Contingencies were emplaced. Research into financial markets and impacts. New banking options. New trade agreements. Yatta, yatta, yatta.

I don't see it as a "Yes, let's secede. Done." No!

An ill prepared for secession could cripple you in a lot of ways. It would be worse than an ill conceived retirement plan.

How does it affect asset holdings of systems in the League. Can the League seize accounts? Property? Stock? How will the global banking system be affected?

I suppose most of these questions would be rhetorical pending a book on global markets in the galaxy.

Which means the League has more time than we think?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:31 pm

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Hi Weird Harold,

The SL is screwed in several different ways, the MAlign has sabotaged it so deeply that at least a couple of the mandarins are likely MAlign agents and the rest on the payroll, NTM being misled by MAlign agents on their staffs besides all the downstream bureaucrats etc.

This was to clear the way for the RF to be the civilized alternative to the chaos the SL ineptitude had brought to all the various members, with no real competition, because Beowulf was ignorant of their plans and wold always be reacting too late while they forged ahead, thanks to their brilliant plan.

It was mainly supposed to be political, with the large RF SDF's to protect the new helpless members from the warlords and pirates in the power vacuum caused by the SL's implosion.

The SL's collapse was intended to be to at least down to a brown dwarf if not of black hole magnitude.

Unfortunately for the MAlign things haven't gone according to plan, especially since Albrecht began reacting, changing the plan too quickly besides making a slew of mistakes.

I don't expect a great big reveal in UC, but some unraveling will definitely confirm some things for the GA.

Like the origin of the Filaretta's missile ships since Mesa ha no TIY missile production facilities; once ONI examines the fleet's paperwork etc.

On the security side, the ~1800 SL members and 600+ protectorates are more militarily naked than European NATO is right now:

[Bonus question; which are the two most powerful European members of NATO, and why is that frightening?]

2/3 of all the SL members have nothing more than SL type LAC's, and the protectorates don't even have that much, while 3/4 if not 7/8 of those with SDF's are too small, too old etc to seriously defend themselves let alone others, though there are also those intent on their own empires.

But the totally unforeseen GA, with the most advanced combined military forces is 'here to save the day', because its ships are so superior to the SLN's that despite being potentially grossly outnumbered tonnage wise, ie 10, maybe even 20 to 1, the RMN can still conquer.

However, from the HoS data and extrapolating from that for the next ten monthes before OB, the RMN is vastly larger than the June 1920 fleet chart might suggest; I suspect easily double the 1920 figures, and as Admiral Cuthbert has demonstrated, rather small TG's can liberate some 12-16 protectorates very quickly, so it won't take that many to free the rest even using just the legacy fleet [old ships listed in 1920 fleet chart], such as old BC's for Sag-C CA's etc.

The old pre-Apollo SDP's and BCP's could each effectively sweep several verge and shell systems in a month, the main restriction might be the number of CLAC's to post in each now free system along with a few escorts, which the RHN might have now in considerable abundance.

The GSN's power might be more concentrated in SDP's, but it too is so incredibly powerful that the RMN might be considered redundant to the joint power and numbers of the GSN, RHN and IAN (granted the IAN isn't officially a GA member yet).

However since the RoH has around 6-8 times the industrial power of the SEM and Yeltsin combined [only 5 industrialized star systems since the TQ's are so far behind], the size of the RHN could now be huge, easily dwarfing the rest of the GA, and while its ships aren't as powerful on a per ton basis, I predict their new non-capitol ship classes are still very superior to the SLN's, thanks to Shannon Foraker, and with several undamaged whole star systems devoted to producing each class, when the SL may only be producing a few dozen BC's, CA's, CL's, and DD's each year, even the FF may find itself already outnumbered, or it soon will be.

However even using the 1920 chart numbers the GA could easily destroy the FF, while even the SLN now knows the BF SD's are ridiculous deathtraps that should never face the GA again, and it would be wise to use their crews to man more FF type ships, though they too are just targets to the GA.

The GA could easily form 200-300 SoV type comparable TG's to free the verge and the shells, perhaps 6-8 star systems for the first sorties, while the new SDP's etc eliminate the BF reserve's storage in the 7 systems and other inner core bases.

The Maya sector is a very important secret strategic industrial reserve, which eventually according to ToF will be critical, but we don't know the time scale yet.

Definitely interesting times.

222 days to go!


Weird Harold wrote:Snipped from a post buried in another thread"
cthia wrote:If the Harrington Plan is to work, they must fracture a big enough chunk of that 3000. Systems are not going to split on account of promises. "You'll send us some ships when? Oh hell no. We are not going to be the next Beowulf!"




The Solarian League looks like a "Fried Marble" and everyone expects the League to react like a Fried Marble under a big hammer.

The League is more like a Prince Rupert Drop and Beowulf will turn out to be the tail of the drop.

To witness the dissolution of the Solarian League, click here: https://youtu.be/xe-f4gokRBs?t=143
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by Weird Harold   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:15 pm

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JohnRoth wrote:The thing people are missing is that, when Honor heads for Sol, she's going to have a bunch of Eradni Edict and Deneb Accord violations to discuss with the Solarian League hierarchy - at pulsar point if necessary.

Eradni Edict violations are sufficient to dismantle the existing government and replace it if necessary.


You're thinking of the League as a Fried Marble, and a half-baked marble at that.

When Honor heads for Sol, Sol is going to be all that remains of the League.

As a child in the 60s, Fried Marbles were a really big fad and inevitably boys will be boys and a great many fried marbles were hit with hammers, thrown against brick walls, and shot from slingshots at anything even semi-hard. They shatter almost as fast as a Prince Rupert's Drop, but they leave much bigger pieces -- pretty much the same size as the little cubes auto safety-glass breaks into.

But the GA can't afford to let any big chunks of the League survive, and a simple change of government isn't going to suffice. Not that the GA, MAlign, or Mandarins, are going to be able to control the breakup any more than the implosion of a Prince Rupert's Drop can be controlled.

Given the stated time-frame for UH, the League dissolution has to be much faster than anyone is predicting -- like a Prince Rupert's Drop, some very small action at the tail end of the League is going to release all of the stress and expand the fractures explosively.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by ldwechsler   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:39 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
JohnRoth wrote:The thing people are missing is that, when Honor heads for Sol, she's going to have a bunch of Eradni Edict and Deneb Accord violations to discuss with the Solarian League hierarchy - at pulsar point if necessary.

Eradni Edict violations are sufficient to dismantle the existing government and replace it if necessary.


You're thinking of the League as a Fried Marble, and a half-baked marble at that.

When Honor heads for Sol, Sol is going to be all that remains of the League.

As a child in the 60s, Fried Marbles were a really big fad and inevitably boys will be boys and a great many fried marbles were hit with hammers, thrown against brick walls, and shot from slingshots at anything even semi-hard. They shatter almost as fast as a Prince Rupert's Drop, but they leave much bigger pieces -- pretty much the same size as the little cubes auto safety-glass breaks into.

But the GA can't afford to let any big chunks of the League survive, and a simple change of government isn't going to suffice. Not that the GA, MAlign, or Mandarins, are going to be able to control the breakup any more than the implosion of a Prince Rupert's Drop can be controlled.

Given the stated time-frame for UH, the League dissolution has to be much faster than anyone is predicting -- like a Prince Rupert's Drop, some very small action at the tail end of the League is going to release all of the stress and expand the fractures explosively.


I doubt there will be a total collapse of the League. Too many planets are well established and working together. Remember that other entities like Haven, SEM and Anderman are rather small...double digits rather than quadruple.

I would guess the League will survive and be reasonably strong but with a much smaller navy. I think we will see a "Weimar Solution," where the navy is restricted. And chances are there will be trouble a generation down the line.
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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by pappilon   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:02 pm

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ldwechsler wrote: I doubt there will be a total collapse of the League. Too many planets are well established and working together. Remember that other entities like Haven, SEM and Anderman are rather small...double digits rather than quadruple.

I would guess the League will survive and be reasonably strong but with a much smaller navy. I think we will see a "Weimar Solution," where the navy is restricted. And chances are there will be trouble a generation down the line.


I also have my doubts. I do not think we will see much of the dissolution of the league. This is Honor's last rodeo, not necessarily the final episode of the Honorverse.

it was originally planned to follow her kids into the future.
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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by Bluesqueak   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:28 pm

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pappilon wrote:
ldwechsler wrote: I doubt there will be a total collapse of the League. Too many planets are well established and working together. Remember that other entities like Haven, SEM and Anderman are rather small...double digits rather than quadruple.

I would guess the League will survive and be reasonably strong but with a much smaller navy. I think we will see a "Weimar Solution," where the navy is restricted. And chances are there will be trouble a generation down the line.


I also have my doubts. I do not think we will see much of the dissolution of the league. This is Honor's last rodeo, not necessarily the final episode of the Honorverse.

it was originally planned to follow her kids into the future.


Yes, but the future may be the Star Empire of Manticore/allies, versus the Renaissance Factor/MAlign.

I suspect the League is inspired by the Ottoman Empire. Check out how just fast that (four centuries old) Empire collapsed in the early twentieth.
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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by ldwechsler   » Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:43 pm

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Bluesqueak wrote:
ldwechsler wrote: I doubt there will be a total collapse of the League. Too many planets are well established and working together. Remember that other entities like Haven, SEM and Anderman are rather small...double digits rather than quadruple.

I would guess the League will survive and be reasonably strong but with a much smaller navy. I think we will see a "Weimar Solution," where the navy is restricted. And chances are there will be trouble a generation down the line.


I also have my doubts. I do not think we will see much of the dissolution of the league. This is Honor's last rodeo, not necessarily the final episode of the Honorverse.

it was originally planned to follow her kids into the future.


Yes, but the future may be the Star Empire of Manticore/allies, versus the Renaissance Factor/MAlign.

I suspect the League is inspired by the Ottoman Empire. Check out how just fast that (four centuries old) Empire collapsed in the early twentieth.[/quote]


Ottomans not a great analogy. The winners of the war took away most of the empire. Brits got most of it but the French got some.

It was the outside that forced the changes.

For the League, a lot of planets will just leave. A real lot. But some will go for safety in numbers and some are just really profitable. Remember that the power people like having the power and why not use it even if the League has far fewer planets?
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Re: Watch the Solarian League's demise
Post by cthia   » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:57 am

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pappilon wrote:
ldwechsler wrote: I doubt there will be a total collapse of the League. Too many planets are well established and working together. Remember that other entities like Haven, SEM and Anderman are rather small...double digits rather than quadruple.

I would guess the League will survive and be reasonably strong but with a much smaller navy. I think we will see a "Weimar Solution," where the navy is restricted. And chances are there will be trouble a generation down the line.


I also have my doubts. I do not think we will see much of the dissolution of the league. This is Honor's last rodeo, not necessarily the final episode of the Honorverse.

it was originally planned to follow her kids into the future.


Yea, it inherently would take more time for such a monstrosity to fold than many seem to think, IMO.* Heck, if the League would fold as fast as many seem to think it would, it could be fatal for many systems. There wouldn't be much time for many of them to get out from under the fallout. When demolition charges are set, there must be enough time given to clear. Every member may not have seen the writing on the wall anyways, thus have taken the proper steps.

*Plus RFC's own hint, paraphrasing...

"I'll wrap things up with the League in a manner that will satisfy most?"

I hope I'm not misremembering, thus dismembering, that quote.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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