Watch the Solarian League's demise

ldwechsler wrote:Again. Probably wrong. First, the mandarins are not the League. Yes they run it but a) officially it is the politicians in charge and you can bet they'll push the idea that they were merely taking orders, and b) even if these five are arrested, they can be replaced.

Sure. All you need is every single elected official to agree with you. I understand the Mandarins have several that are very well bribed, and they have lots of compromising data on their habits. So I doubt that you will get that.

But the Mandarins will have you arrested for treason. I think there will be a court hearing soon. Probably within 6 months. But I've heard the jails are full of dangerous people and sometimes bad things happen there.

I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the concept of the Solar[ian]System seceeding from the Solarian League.

Everybodyknows the Mandarins are in charge, except maybe the not-so-bright kindergarteners somewhere out in Silesia. And everyone knows their names. And as has often been [un]stated in the series, Sol has lots of paperwork and memos. Bureaucrats always lie and rely on their paperwork, the better to hang themselves with.

cthia wrote:Snip

One of those dangers being the line of attack offered by Beowulf's junction right down its throat.

So far, almost all the action by the SEM has been economic, leaving Mike's invasion aside (besides, so far, no one in the League is aware of it). Want a blueprint of the strategy? I got it from searching old posts.

1) take control of the wormhole network;
2) Manti freighters now have SECURE access to all verge areas, and nearly all internal shell and core systems;
3) Transtellers will be able to ship on Manti ships using transfer facilities in Manti or neutral hands; they still can't use the wormholes themselves;
4) Neutrals can go anywhere they want;
5) Systems that pull out of the SL will be recognized as neutrals.

Given that the core world's economic policies benefit themselves even at the expense of the Shell, and the rivalries between planets within the core, and the need by the transteller shippers for deliveries. . . How long before trade resumes?

Here is a part of the original post; I bolded some of it, he didn't use bold.
This quote is from :
Re:Some comments on the economics of the series [back in June 2012.]

runsforcelery wrote:
In point of fact, none of the Manticoran Wormhole Junction's termini are shut down at the moment. The only one connecting to Solarian space also happens to connect to the Beowulf System, and the Grand Alliance has most definitely not closed that terminus, since Beowulf is currently a de facto and will soon be a de jure member of the aforesaid Grand Alliance.

For that matter, Manticore (and the Grand Alliance) now has control of a great many additional wormhole termini, and the fact that the Solarian League's merchant fleet is no longer being allowed to use them doesn't mean that the Manticoran merchant fleet can't. All Manty merchantmen were called home as part of the initial Operation Laocoön as the first stage in ratcheting up pressure on the Sollies (and, frankly, to get them out of the way before additional Solarian system governors had the same stupid idea of seizing them to use as hostages against the Star Empire). Once Lacoön II went into effect and the RMN began actively seizing other termini, those termini became available once again to the Manticoran merchant marine. Now, Manticore has no objection to carrying freight for people who are willing to ship it in Manticoran bottoms. In fact, Manticore sees this as a way to gently and gradually pry the people making use of their merchant fleet away from loyalty to the Mandarins. Carrying commerce for them will lessen the economic hit they take from what is effectively the Manticoran blockade while continuing to deny the service fees and shipping duties which fund the Solarian League's bureaucracy.

At the moment, the Star Empire has no intention of holding on to all of those other termini permanently. That doesn't mean that they won't hold on to some of them on a permanent basis, however. In addition, Manticore will probably negotiate an arrangement under which Manticoran shipping pays lower transit fees for other people's termini as part of mutual defense treaties which obligate the RMN to safeguard those termini. In other words, if the normal shipping duty for a 4,000,000 ton freighter, for example, was $10,000, Manticore might pay $7,500 in return for a guaranteed right of passage in time of war from the terminus' legal owner and a Manticoran guarantee to protect the legal owner's territorial integrity and possession of the terminus.

In general, one may assume that the Star Empire is going to continue its support of free trade, to continue to recognize the right of those who have wormhole termini to charge reasonable transit fees, and to be perfectly willing to act as the first line of defense/interstellar guardians of the wormhole network. It is quite probable that the Star Empire will insist on permanent possession of (or at least very, very long-term leases on) termini which belonged to especially bad actors before the war with the League. By the same token, it is very probable that the Star Empire will set up — probably in coordination with other members of the Grand Alliance — some sort of interstellar authority which would move in to stabilize and/or eliminate military threats to traffic through a terminus or the imposition of clearly confiscatory-level transit fees. In that case, however, Manticore would very, very much prefer a multi-nation board with a rotating chairmanship so that it would not be perceived as (and could not in fact become) a Manticoran version of OFS.

In response to the concerns being expressed over how withdrawals might be managed/policed over intrasystem distances.SNIP

The Manticorian Merchant Marine (and the Have one) are not going to have safe sailing in the Verge. Not only is FF still active there, all sorts of people would jump at the chance to grab a Manticore freighter as patriotic Solarian members or to support their local FF commander of OFS Governor- for a major cut of the prize money of course.

You have noticed that the SLN is loosing ships at a truly awsome rate (and in large batches) and now they are going to be sending a lot of the lighter stuff - DD up through BC out to commerce raid to where RMN and RoHN live? That's going to not end well for the raiders.
So the primary enforement for OFS, SL and anybody with an arrangment or deal with the SL to look the other way or provide protection is going to be without the big sticks on call to beat down if they can't just cow a problem by showing up.

Lack of enforcement and or the preceived AND demonstrated inability to do their jobs by SLN and OFS is going to tear the lid off festering problems. It does't take a genius to figure out that if you decide you have an opportunity to take over some other system, that the delay in getting a responce by the SLN to a call for assistance is probably going to give you time to become the Legitimate Government and tell the "protectors"- so sorry, local problem, all resolved, run back to cowereing behind a moon somewhere and sure you can buy all the hydrogen and water for your bunkers, that will be cash, thank you.

Want to renegotiate that trade agreement with Suzie's Fast Freight or Bozo's Planet? No helpful official from the Leage Board of Trade or OFS's Protectorate Services is going to be there to either take their cut or "negotiate" on behalf of their clients.
Heck, send your little bitty SDF over to that stuck-up neignbor of yours (with transponders set to SLN codes), blow the shit out of enough of their infrastructure to soften them up without destroying the ability to export good and then send part of that same SDF back with some feighters full of "reconstruction experts" [a lot of your army and administrators] and become the local version of OFS and Rescure them from that dastardly attack by rogue SLN ships (lot of that going around) and sign them up for debt peonage for the next 200 years as you take over operations. That OFS business model is truly a solid moneymaker:)

Brigade XO wrote:The Manticorian Merchant Marine (and the Have one) are not going to have safe sailing in the Verge. Not only is FF still active there, all sorts of people would jump at the chance to grab a Manticore freighter as patriotic Solarian members or to support their local FF commander of OFS Governor- for a major cut of the prize money of course.

You have noticed that the SLN is loosing ships at a truly awsome rate (and in large batches) and now they are going to be sending a lot of the lighter stuff - DD up through BC out to commerce raid to where RMN and RoHN live? That's going to not end well for the raiders.
So the primary enforement for OFS, SL and anybody with an arrangment or deal with the SL to look the other way or provide protection is going to be without the big sticks on call to beat down if they can't just cow a problem by showing up.

Lack of enforcement and or the preceived AND demonstrated inability to do their jobs by SLN and OFS is going to tear the lid off festering problems. It does't take a genius to figure out that if you decide you have an opportunity to take over some other system, that the delay in getting a responce by the SLN to a call for assistance is probably going to give you time to become the Legitimate Government and tell the "protectors"- so sorry, local problem, all resolved, run back to cowereing behind a moon somewhere and sure you can buy all the hydrogen and water for your bunkers, that will be cash, thank you.

Want to renegotiate that trade agreement with Suzie's Fast Freight or Bozo's Planet? No helpful official from the Leage Board of Trade or OFS's Protectorate Services is going to be there to either take their cut or "negotiate" on behalf of their clients.
Heck, send your little bitty SDF over to that stuck-up neignbor of yours (with transponders set to SLN codes), blow the shit out of enough of their infrastructure to soften them up without destroying the ability to export good and then send part of that same SDF back with some feighters full of "reconstruction experts" [a lot of your army and administrators] and become the local version of OFS and Rescure them from that dastardly attack by rogue SLN ships (lot of that going around) and sign them up for debt peonage for the next 200 years as you take over operations. That OFS business model is truly a solid moneymaker:)

They won't be trading until the end of the war, remember? That's policy. So anything done will probably be in convoys. That would help.

After the war, if there are ships doing this stuff, they are pirates and can be treated that way. If a Sollie ship does grab a Manty one, they better make sure THEY are not captured. They are all up for execution and I bet one or two would tell all, like who they're working for and where they meet up and what planets they work off. At that point, the RMN will take action.

Hello, thanks for the response.

Brigade XO wrote:The Manticorian Merchant Marine (and the Have one) are not going to have safe sailing in the Verge. Not only is FF still active there, all sorts of people would jump at the chance to grab a Manticore freighter as patriotic Solarian members or to support their local FF commander of OFS Governor- for a major cut of the prize money of course.

They are totally secure in travel through the wormhole network. FF has lost--badly-- every time they encountered Manties. I expect at the moment they are concentrated near their fleet bases. I also didn't say GA ships wouldn't be escorted--last I looked, SEM had 175+ fairly new light cruisers; no figures on other alliance members. But rfc's post was explicit on that point--with control of the network, the RMMM will be going to use it. Verge systems outside the protectorates won't be any more hazardous than they ever were.

As for the shell systems. . . .it sort of depends on their attitude. But to use one example, the SEM could use existing facilities on Nolan for warehousing and transshipment. Local Sollie shippers bring their whatever there, and the Manties can take it to Silesia, the Andermani Empire, Haven--where ever it needs to go. Now that you are in Lacooen II, you can push out the OFS/SLN, leave the local gov't in place, but give them a majority of the transit fees. Since they got next to zilch before, they would likely be just fine with that.

Brigade XO wrote:You have noticed that the SLN is loosing ships at a truly awsome rate (and in large batches) and now they are going to be sending a lot of the lighter stuff - DD up through BC out to commerce raid to where RMN and RoHN live? That's going to not end well for the raiders.

It looks from the snippets that they are raiding in their own near-vicinity against neutrals who can't resist; they aren't going to spend 4 to 6 months in hyper to raid 'where the RMN and RoHN live' because they would not survive out there, and also because the operational timeframe is too long for the Mandarins--public opinion will force them into action sooner. As Kolokoltsov noted, patience is not a Solarian virtue. They need a little victory now to rally support.

As far as 'not end well' I agree--but the political fallout from their exposure as perpetrators of "Case Buccaneer" will be one of the things that ends up hurting the League the most.

But can you picture Aegis or another Avalon up against a pair or Bridgeports? Or, how's this: the RMN has always modernized existing ships. How about a Star Knight class unloading a stacked double salvo against pair of Guardian type cruisers? If you install the Avalon's fire control into a Star Knight, a stacked double salvo would be 48 missiles even without the chase. Not as heavy as Gauntlet, but the SLN never looked at Tiberion any more than any other Verge battle. . . .

Brigade XO wrote:So the primary enforement for OFS, SL and anybody with an arrangment or deal with the SL to look the other way or provide protection is going to be without the big sticks on call to beat down if they can't just cow a problem by showing up.

Lack of enforcement and or the preceived AND demonstrated inability to do their jobs by SLN and OFS is going to tear the lid off festering problems. It does't take a genius to figure out that if you decide you have an opportunity to take over some other system, that the delay in getting a responce by the SLN to a call for assistance is probably going to give you time to become the Legitimate Government and tell the "protectors"- so sorry, local problem, all resolved, run back to cowereing behind a moon somewhere and sure you can buy all the hydrogen and water for your bunkers, that will be cash, thank you.

Want to renegotiate that trade agreement with Suzie's Fast Freight or Bozo's Planet? No helpful official from the Leage Board of Trade or OFS's Protectorate Services is going to be there to either take their cut or "negotiate" on behalf of their clients.
Heck, send your little bitty SDF over to that stuck-up neignbor of yours (with transponders set to SLN codes), blow the shit out of enough of their infrastructure to soften them up without destroying the ability to export good and then send part of that same SDF back with some feighters full of "reconstruction experts" [a lot of your army and administrators] and become the local version of OFS and Rescure them from that dastardly attack by rogue SLN ships (lot of that going around) and sign them up for debt peonage for the next 200 years as you take over operations. That OFS business model is truly a solid moneymaker:)

If I understand this part of your post, yes, I expect a lot of unrest and quite a bit of payback from systems that either got screwed by the pro-Core, pro-major transteller polices pushed by the current SLN, or those whose predatory tendencies were (up to now) restrained by their membership. And there will be some naval/gendarm/OFS types who decide to play Alexander the Great (or Napoleon, or Gustav Anderman). Maya Sector is not the only group that is preparing to leave the League; we just aren't privy to the others yet.

In the first case, the transtellars (particularly the smaller local shell-system outfits) will either convince their local system government to look the other way, or to outright secede. Also, there will be a bit of smuggling.

In the second case, the GA will recognize whatever the new polity is, and trade with them. And if that includes mutual defense treaties, investment for infrastructure, or whatever, then that's what they'll get.

Which, when you get down to it, is a big part of the Harrington Plan; and also, a big part of Gweon's analysis, too.

Anyway, insofar as possible, the Manties will likely let local systems fight their own internal battles. Unless the Malign was shipping the arms claiming to be the SEM--in which case the Manties will take action. Otherwise,they are not going to violate someone else's sovereignty. Or seize territory other than wormhole termini, which are mostly out-system.

YMMV, of course.
Rob

Armed Neo-Bob wrote: It looks from the snippets that they are raiding in their own near-vicinity against neutrals who can't resist; they aren't going to spend 4 to 6 months in hyper to raid 'where the RMN and RoHN live' because they would not survive out there, and also because the operational timeframe is too long for the Mandarins--public opinion will force them into action sooner. As Kolokoltsov noted, patience is not a Solarian virtue. They need a little victory now to rally support.


Rob

So how, exactly, is knocking off a few hulls registered to Upper Slovenia or Southern Dweebovia going to impress the locals that "we're kicking Manty butt out there, boys and girls!"

Otherwise, I agree with your assessment. I can see capturing a SLN raider and spacing the Captain and XO then sending the ship on its merry way "Pour encourager les autres" as they say in Nouveau Paris.

pappilon wrote:So how, exactly, is knocking off a few hulls registered to Upper Slovenia or Southern Dweebovia going to impress the locals that "we're kicking Manty butt out there, boys and girls!"

The SLN's idea of "commerce raiding" is to trash the orbital commerce of anyone "trading with the enemy." Possibly even trashing the planet as well, but the snippets aren't conclusive regarding just where the SLN is "killing children."

Weird Harold wrote:

pappilon wrote:So how, exactly, is knocking off a few hulls registered to Upper Slovenia or Southern Dweebovia going to impress the locals that "we're kicking Manty butt out there, boys and girls!"

The SLN's idea of "commerce raiding" is to trash the orbital commerce of anyone "trading with the enemy." Possibly even trashing the planet as well, but the snippets aren't conclusive regarding just where the SLN is "killing children."

I do understand what you are saying. I fail to see how the Solly media machine can possibly spin the trashing of Lower Slobbovia's entire orbital infrastructure of one leaky space station as a grand victory over those nasty Manties. Loweer Slobbovia is 2 sectors away from the Haven Sector, and a OFS protectorate to boot.

Or maybe they'll express their displeasurt at the governor of Saltash and trash his orbitals? Again, not an easy sell as a victory against the Little Manty Pissants.

We had a snippet of a couple of SLN officers talking about takeing a force to go beat up some system- apparently neutral or at least not SL- for trading with Manticore and/or Beowulf. Thats not commerce raiding, that a punitive strike both as punishment to the locals and a object lesson and warning to everybody else.

The commerce raideing Kingsford is talking about is sending out ships to take or destroy shipping belonging to Manticore and friends and probably will include anybody in elce they find in a system tied to Manticore or the GA. If they also destroy orbital infrastructure of a Manticore allied system that is probably on the list of options if they can get away with it.
At present, the SLN raiders might want to think really carefully about going into a system with a GA warship present and perhaps mostly destroy merchant ships outside or really close inside hyperlimits and then withdrawing (run away?) before anyting dangerous shows up.

Kingsford does have some advantages with the raiding scheme. While SLN does have to go where there is shipping, they don't have to go to high military traffic locations or where the GA is known (or might be known) to have forces. The GA on the other hand, is going to have to take steps to both patrol or guard aginst the raiders and that is another drain on forces.

Give it a year and see who makes out better- with the exception of the merchant crews and various warship crews who are killed in the meantime.