Remaining holes in SLN intel

Loren Pechtel wrote:What I don't understand is how anyone in the SLN could think it was anything other than suicide.

Manticore of course knows the threat of a mass transit. This gives an absolute maximum of firepower that can arrive at once--and thus the defenders can size their forts to deal with that level of threat.
[Snip}

Agree as a third person semi-omniscient reader. The Solaran league, however, apparently lacks some things that other systems seem to have, like (1) an intelligence service that actually communicates with their Merchant Marine Captains and believes their information. (2) False assumptions at the base of their decision making process. (a) Manticore must have fewer than 80 SDs, (b) their system defense must have been totally depleted/destroyed for any invader to trash their orbital platforms. (3) they're dry or nearly dry from their combat with Navy X. (4) They are totally shell shocked and not Emotionally or mentally prepared for yet another invasion.

We see what assuming did.

Loren Pechtel wrote:
What I don't understand is how anyone in the SLN could think it was anything other than suicide.

Manticore of course knows the threat of a mass transit. This gives an absolute maximum of firepower that can arrive at once--and thus the defenders can size their forts to deal with that level of threat.

The only way a wormhole assault can work against a competent enemy is if you have a major technological surprise--you're sending through far more firepower than they think can be done in one transit.

The only situation I can see where that existed at all was with the advent of Apollo and there were no wormholes to assault then--and why take the casualties of a wormhole assault anyway? Apollo is an even greater advantage as the range goes up--thus it should be used in a traditional assault.

The only case where I can see a wormhole assault being the right answer is if you have some devastating breakthrough in energy weapons and even then it's only sensible if there aren't other defenders around. (Suppose the SLN had ships with grasers that were deadly to 10mkm for the Beowulf assault. They take out the junction forts and then die to the missiles coming in from 30 mkm out.)

The biggest issue an attacker has to deal with against a modern defense on a large junction is surviving the gauntlet of the several minutes you need to survive in the emergence lane without using sidewalls, impellers, and missiles, while defenders can sit outside energy range and fire in MDM laserheads at the undefended attackers. Thus, attackers cannot damage defenders unless they can survive long enough to exit the emergence lane.

I think the only way you can really take a modern defense on a junction like Manticore without a major technological breakthrough, is to send a constant stream of attrition units through, with occasional spurts of 3-5 SDs. The reason for this is you want to run the defenders out of missiles - the spurts are to make the defenders reactively fire too many missiles against each subsequent target, and use up ammo quickly.

It's just really expensive on ships and crews.

But the SLN might not know any of this - current defense plans are weighted upon on MDMs sprinting into attack range and laserheads with good standoff range covering the emergence lane with lasers. Once again, the SLN is probably thinking in pre-1900 terms, where forts used energy weapons and disposable nuke mines for defense, and every attack attrited the defenders, both in numbers and ammo (which had to be actively emplaced)

cthia wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:We have people in Botswana who look into those things. And Panama. And pretty much everywhere else. And the Russians and Chinese do as well. And quite a few others.

Panama is hardly top dog. Noriega found that out the hard way.

LOL

No they aren't TOP DOG, and your patriotism is already being riled, just like the Solarians. But what if they became TOP DOG, simply because of their location and gift of a canal? Would, indeed could, Americans accept it any easier than the Solarians?

Cthia, I should have started at the beginning of the thread before, you troublemaker, you.

I was still in school for the 76 election, but istr that giving back the canal was his first foreign policy domestic victory. It also contributed (along with Afghanistan and Iran troubles) to Reagan's landslide in '80.

President Carter gifted them with the Canal; and there was a major uproar about it. But the Canal couldn't handle the Carriers, and there was no chance he wanted to pay to re-build the thing so it would be big enough. We were still recovering from the oil embargo, and my home area in Western Massachusetts had a collapsing economy (most large employers sold stuff to DoD--boots, sleeping bags, tents, rain gear--by a decade after Viet Nam war, the population dropped by about a third and homes were just abandoned to rot.)

Interesting to note: Gift. In German, that's the word for poison.

Rob

Theemile wrote:

Loren Pechtel wrote:
What I don't understand is how anyone in the SLN could think it was anything other than suicide.

Manticore of course knows the threat of a mass transit. This gives an absolute maximum of firepower that can arrive at once--and thus the defenders can size their forts to deal with that level of threat.

The only way a wormhole assault can work against a competent enemy is if you have a major technological surprise--you're sending through far more firepower than they think can be done in one transit.

The only situation I can see where that existed at all was with the advent of Apollo and there were no wormholes to assault then--and why take the casualties of a wormhole assault anyway? Apollo is an even greater advantage as the range goes up--thus it should be used in a traditional assault.

The only case where I can see a wormhole assault being the right answer is if you have some devastating breakthrough in energy weapons and even then it's only sensible if there aren't other defenders around. (Suppose the SLN had ships with grasers that were deadly to 10mkm for the Beowulf assault. They take out the junction forts and then die to the missiles coming in from 30 mkm out.)

The biggest issue an attacker has to deal with against a modern defense on a large junction is surviving the gauntlet of the several minutes you need to survive in the emergence lane without using sidewalls, impellers, and missiles, while defenders can sit outside energy range and fire in MDM laserheads at the undefended attackers. Thus, attackers cannot damage defenders unless they can survive long enough to exit the emergence lane.

I think the only way you can really take a modern defense on a junction like Manticore without a major technological breakthrough, is to send a constant stream of attrition units through, with occasional spurts of 3-5 SDs. The reason for this is you want to run the defenders out of missiles - the spurts are to make the defenders reactively fire too many missiles against each subsequent target, and use up ammo quickly.

It's just really expensive on ships and crews.

But the SLN might not know any of this - current defense plans are weighted upon on MDMs sprinting into attack range and laserheads with good standoff range covering the emergence lane with lasers. Once again, the SLN is probably thinking in pre-1900 terms, where forts used energy weapons and disposable nuke mines for defense, and every attack attrited the defenders, both in numbers and ammo (which had to be actively emplaced)

The "military" thinking (such as it was and what there was of it) amongst the higher ups in the SLN was that Manticore would be ready to throw in the towel after the OB strike devastated Manticore's morale so Tsang's fleet should be able to come through unopposed to help clean up the job. What they were really counting on was for Manticore to panic when the SLN said booo...

Don

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Loren Pechtel wrote:What I don't understand is how anyone in the SLN could think it was anything other than suicide.

Manticore of course knows the threat of a mass transit. This gives an absolute maximum of firepower that can arrive at once--and thus the defenders can size their forts to deal with that level of threat.

The only way a wormhole assault can work against a competent enemy is if you have a major technological surprise--you're sending through far more firepower than they think can be done in one transit.

IIRC the SLN thought (incorrectly) that the reported Oyster Bay damage couldn't have been done without first smashing the system defenses; possibly in large part during the BoM. So their planning was for Manticore to basically without fixed defenses and only have what ships they could call back after their home fleet got gutted during BoM.

Why they though Haven or the OB attackers would detour out of their way to also take on the Junction defenses is a bit beyond me. But they either thought that or they though that insanely that this time Manticore wouldn't dare to shoot at SLN forces.

Because otherwise you're totally right. A wormhole assault against competent defenders is an expensive way to commit suicide.

(Now you can do some tricks with the wormhole, like White Haven did at Trevor's Star if you can clear the defenses with normal forces you can slam a rapid reinforcement through the wormhole to disrupt the tactical balance while not leaving your core system(s) uncovered for long. He did it by luring the defending fleet units in system, then slipped a message through letting Home Fleet know the terminus was undefended. But in theory a pounce from hyper to clear the defenses could also proceed a message whistling up reinforcements)

Jonathan_S wrote:

Loren Pechtel wrote:What I don't understand is how anyone in the SLN could think it was anything other than suicide.
SNIP

The only way a wormhole assault can work against a competent enemy is if you have a major technological surprise--you're sending through far more firepower than they think can be done in one transit.

IIRC the SLN thought (incorrectly) that the reported Oyster Bay damage couldn't have been done without first smashing the system defenses; possibly in large part during the BoM. So their planning was for Manticore to basically without fixed defenses and only have what ships they could call back after their home fleet got gutted during BoM.

Why they though Haven or the OB attackers would detour out of their way to also take on the Junction defenses is a bit beyond me. But they either thought that or they though that insanely that this time Manticore wouldn't dare to shoot at SLN forces.

Because otherwise you're totally right. A wormhole assault against competent defenders is an expensive way to commit suicide.

SNIP

And I remember Albrecht patting himself on the back for getting that bit of thinking into the SLN's basic assumptions. Bolded a bit for clarity.

Rob

What I don´t understand is the lack of knowledge about the Beowulf whormhole. They should know the limit of whormhole transit, but, if I am remember correct, the solarian forces at Beowulf try to jump with all their ships, what is more than the whormhole can handle. That is the stupidy there in my eyes.

Another point is, that the whormhole was still open for press and non-solarian ships. Shouldn´t be difficult to get proof that the Junction defense is up or down.

In the end: Have the solarians anything do correct? For me it look like they use a mine detector, not to avoid mines, to jump directly on it.



PS: with mines I mean anything you can do wrong.

I didn't keep up with all the posts in the thread so I just read the first 10 pages again. As it happens, we seem to have stopped discussing intelligence gaps. I spent some time in the G2, in collection management; so first you pull available data from your current holdings; determine what is critical to your success; determine if you know what you need to know about enemy forces, capabilities, equipment, leadership, what constitutes the operational area and area of interest, lines of communication , , , , ,blah. At each stage in the planning process, you re=think what it is you need to know for success. Decide what you DON'T know. And determine where that information might be, or might be gotten. Then acquire all the information you can, using all assets available. Wash, rinse, repeat. There are always holes, but you try to fill enough of them not to fall on your face.

We pretty much know the SLN wasclueless about hardware; but the overall civilian tech base approaches Manticore's. In that regard, many of the advances they will need are available, if they get researchers looking in the right directions. Just because the SLN is a hidebound dinosaur, that doesn't mean all the research universities are just diploma mills.

In Talbot, Khumalo spent moths trying to get solid surveys and maps done of his command area, so he could determine what would, for them, constitute key terrain, as in infrastructure and resources, and make plans to defend it. But the League's ONI isn't even attempting to scout systems, nor try to get recent sensor data from the merchant shipping firms.

They know nothing about the GA's civilian or military leadership; whether they are innovative, timid, intelligent, demented, or rigidly doctrinaire--or even what constitutes "doctrine". . .except for the Peep propaganda that they got from the StateSec days.

They never bothered to do any area studies of the economy, the grav waves (lines of communication and rapid movement), or anything about the culture(s) of the Haven Quadrant. They likely do not know what systems are members of the Manticore Alliance, what their strengths and weaknesses are, which outsystem commanders are graduates of Saganami Island or the Havenite, (Grayson, or Erewhonese--or Andemani)military schools.

However, it's a dereliction of duty (as interested readers) for us condemn them unfairly. Many of us serve, or have served, in our contemporay armed forces. We have personal experience in combat zones; or our parents or grandparents did. European, Asian and African readers have had the combat zones running through their homes nearly every generation or so for centuries.

But the League hasn't. There not only is no one in a leadership position, there isn't anyone alive anywhere who remembers the League having a rival at all, let alone a military one. Not even with prolong. But rfc has given us some Sollies who are not morons; they just aren't the primary leadership. Assuming they dust off a standard manual for military intelligence collection and analysis, they could actually make up some of their lost ground. So some questions to ask are: what else to they need to know for their operation. How would you acquire what you need to know? Do you have any internal or external asset that can provide that critical information? What are the exploitable weaknesses of the GA in tactics, leadership, location, morale, civilian morale. . . .etc.

We can see already the coming Sollie civil war, and reorganization. Will the centuries of tradition lead to the re-estblishment of the Celestial Empire and the Invincible Ming-- uh, Navy? Or will the "young Turks" of the League pull off both a successful defense of the core of the Old League, while losing the periphery?

Please DO NOT quote this overly stupidly long post. Just snip a fragment and let's build a more optimistic possible outcome for the poor Sollie citizen who doesn't live in Old Chicago.

Rob


Two out of order quotes:

Bluesqueak wrote:

If they can't come up with a reason and a valid search warrant they're morons.

They're morons.

Brigade XO wrote:SNIP

It's been a long week, I want the next book

Maldorian wrote:What I don´t understand is the lack of knowledge about the Beowulf whormhole. They should know the limit of whormhole transit, but, if I am remember correct, the solarian forces at Beowulf try to jump with all their ships, what is more than the whormhole can handle. That is the stupidy there in my eyes.

Another point is, that the whormhole was still open for press and non-solarian ships. Shouldn´t be difficult to get proof that the Junction defense is up or down.

In the end: Have the solarians anything do correct? For me it look like they use a mine detector, not to avoid mines, to jump directly on it.

Sure, it's stupid. But not one BF unit has a commander that has ever deployed to the Verge. When was the last time even one squadron even went to the Shell? Aside from Crandall, who is deceased. Filareta may or may not have used a terminus somewhere en route to Tasmania.
Hint: al Fanudahi had the dates on that. Forever ago, and totally uneventful. And with the SLN and Core World disparagement of the Verge in general and Manticore in particular, do you really think any of them might have gone to the SKM for vacations?

Oh, in addition to the press, the GA is allowing other dispatch boats through the wormholes. That is, the press, diplomatic couriers, trade reps (who function abroad as consuls) and financial data carriers. You know, the guys that might cut a deal before their systems or their corporations end up in bankruptcy hearings. . . .

Regards,
Rob

edited to fix the quote. Im leaving the typos tho.



PS: with mines I mean anything you can do wrong.[/quote]

Older posts i didn't comment on, from my re-reading today.

drothgery wrote:

quite possibly a cat wrote:Snipped
And it was powered by perpetual motion. Because the DDM were impossible. There was a definitive paper written centuries ago on it.

And when MDMs were just a secret Manty research project, that makes sense. However, they were the decisive weapons in the final battlese of the First Havenite War seven years ago. And were thrown around in immense numbers by both sides in the Second Havenite War. They could easily be skeptical of exact performance numbers, but not realizing Manticore had made some major improvements in missile tech at the end of the first war, and that Haven had largely matched it by the second... I don't think even the SLN would have failed to notice it without active Alignment meddling.

If you go back to the Buttercup timeframe, the war had been dragging out for a decade. By Sollie standards, a system invasion just takes a day--bring Ming the Merciless to orbit, stomp a few neo-barb, if they don't surrender today, they eat KEWs tomorrow. . . .

And given the very small numbers of Podlayers, while the RMN would have hurt the SLN badly, at that time if 500 or 600 sollie wallers invaded the home system while 8th Fleet was in Haven's territory--Manticore loses.

ldwechsler wrote:Snip
In the case of Manticoran missiles, there are a whole lot of developments that have been ignored. Remember that MAlign knows about them. But they've kept the mandarins and the navy from knowing about it.
Snip

I might be remembering wrong, but we got some insight into Technodyne by way of Levakonic in SoSag. I thought Technodyne had been trying for years to get the SLN to fund their research, by giving them what data they could get from Haven before Buttercup changed the regime. The Malign was embedded in both Technodyne and the SLN community; I think if the Detweilers could have broken through the Sollie skulls and gotten them interested in paying for the R&D, they wouldn't have minded at all. After all, they would also have all the data and the same missiles; AND their spider drive.

quite possibly a cat wrote:Snip
They DID have reports from the SDF observers. They had even gotten to Bygn. They determined the reports were absurd. Plus MDM were impossible. Its possible the Alignment encouraged that interpretation.
SNIP

The malign had a little help from the Maya sector, and possibly other would-be warlords in that endeavor.

feyhunde wrote:SNIP
It's actually worse then that. The key development the SLN never felt in its bones was the Laser Head. The SLN hasn't fought a battle with a Waller using laser heads. The result of this is the SLN didn't understand how much more lethal missile combat became.

You see this in their ships. Their SD's are about the size of the last generation of Haven Quadrant DDs. Comparing the Scientist Class to the King William Class, the KW has 8 more tubes per broadside, nearly 4 times the counter missile tubes, and more than double the PD stations.

The King William was built early in the life of the Laser Head, but the RMN actually had a radical design in the King William, with the vast increase in Missile emphasis. Even then, we still had the Senior Leadership as of OBS thinking in terms of energy engagements.
SNIP
The missile ranges of MDMs, and everything else flows from that. Eg. 'who cares what range a missile has when it really can't kill a waller'.

And the answer is:

Mission of Honor,Chap 20 wrote:
By the standards of the prewar Royal Manticoran Navy, they weren’t that bad a design, although the first of the Scientists had been built long enough ago that they’d still been equipped with projectile-firing point defense systems.
snip
The Scientists were 6.8 million-ton units with thirty-two missile tubes, twenty-four lasers, and twenty-six grasers in each broadside. That was a heavier—or, at least, more numerous—energy broadside than any modern Manticoran or Grayson superdreadnought would have mounted. On the other hand, they had only sixteen counter-missile tubes and thirty-two point defense stations in each broadside,

So:
Scientist-Class superdreadnought
Mass: 6.8 M tons
Broadside: 32M,24L, 26G,19CM, 32 PD
versus:
King William-class superdreadnought
Mass: 7,170,750 tons
Broadside: 32M, 19L, 21G, 26CM, 28PD
Chase: 8M, 6L, 4G, 10CM, 10PD
Not so very different--but the years since that design, a lot of changes were made in RMN construction. IT is worth noting that the energy battery was also considered "missile defense", which may be why their are so many lasers. Haven Doctrine and design in the first war was heavily built on the Sollie design and doctrine, and they still use the main battery as part of their "layered defense."

Somtaaw wrote:Might not have been Byng we saw it with, but there's definitely been at least a few intelligence reports circulating among Solly Admirals, that grav-pulse comms and MDM's are/were possible.

There was a whole lot of CYA hedging, with size-this, and power-that but the scientists concluded it was impossible with anything below the wall. And that even wallers would have trouble fitting grav-pulse AND meaningful armaments in. And that it was possible that waller missiles might be able to squeeze a second drive, but three is definitely impossible and obvious lies, anyone who squeezes three drives is using system-defense missiles and not ship-launched.

That's why when Filareta heard about Crandall, he simply assumed Manticore managed to scrape up system-defense pods, despite the whole surprise attack that later gets called Yawata Strike. And even the Mandarins figured there simply HAD to be wallers Manticore wasn't admitting were there for intimidation. Because obviously by suggesting RMN cruisers could go toe-to-toe with wallers is hyperbole, everybody knows cruisers run away from wallers.... right?

No no, that was so very much Byng. So the Dissemination function of ONI seems to be working in the SOL system, even if they can't get critical info out to the FF officers.

ldwechsler wrote:Another reason why the Sollies won't catch up all that fast.
The Manties had moved so far beyond them in so many fields. Not only FTL communication, but missile size, missile control, ship size, laser heads, and probably a half dozen more areas.

There'll be a lot of catching up to do and it won't be quick. And since they're way behind in espionage within the Grand Alliance, it will not be easy to steal secrets. Particularly since it's wartime so any Mantie, Havenite, etc. giving info would be committing treason and the penalties would be draconian.

Like Haven, they don't have to catch up all the way, just get within shouting distance and overwhelm them with numbers. How quick it is will depend on their willingness to start with a blank sheet of paper, and accurately assess the capabilities they need, even if the designs are oversized and clumsy. If they are already turning to modular design, they could pump out a bunch of War-Harvest or Bridgeport conversion designs that are nothing but missile defense; The GA can't afford to build specialist designs like that (except for LACS); the Sollies can't afford not to build them.

Brigade XO wrote:SNIP
Have you missed the point that there are litteraly HUNDREDS of freighters cycling back and forth beetween the SD terminus (and so to Manticore) carrying God knows what in the way of probable war materials as well as component parts and equipment to rebuild the Manticorian muntions productions, repair and build Manticoranian warships, as well as restablish (and train part of the workforce) and rebuild the destroyed orbital industries which for the last 20+ years have been churning out the most advanced military hardware in the known Human part of the galaxy along with the manufacturing and shipping juggernaought that was Manticore?

It's been a long week, I want the next book

In addition to Beowulf's contribution (and how much of that was bought from other League Members?), the construction people working on San Martin and Lynx' orbital infrastructure ought to be far enough along to a least build parts of the structural framework . . . .

Jonathan_S wrote:Well, we do know that the League Assembly was able to slap an embargo on selling military tech / ships to Manticore and Haven during the first war. (Defense firms did it anyway, but under the table and got slapped when caught). That implies that at least for certain sensitive categories of goods there is League level export rules (but of course we don't know if those rules get implemented / enforced by League level inspections or if they're simply handed down from on high as mandates for each local system's customs force to handle).

Wasn't the Assembly, which couldn't have enforced it.

Mission of Honor chap 47 wrote: "I admit none of them seem to have exactly covered themselves with glory," Omosupe Quartermain observed with a grimace, picking up the discarded note as if he'd deposited a small, several-days-dead rodent in the middle of her blotter, "but I wouldn't have believed even Manties could be stupid enough to hand us something like this!"
"And why not?" Malachai Abruzzi demanded with an even more disgusted grimace. "They've been getting progressively more uppity for years now—ever since they managed to extort that frigging 'technology embargo' against Haven out of your people, Omosupe."

Fireflair wrote:SNIP

So no, the SLN doesn't seem to be aware of SD(P)'s, despite all these years that RHN and RMN have been throwing thousands of missiles back and forth at each other. To the SLN the RMN has bigger ships in order to promote bigger weapons, without considering that they're using that hull space for more PDLCs, CM launchers and armor to survive the new environment. There's been a number of comments about 'Mantie big assed ___' take your pick of ship class.

There is also no indication that the SLN is at all aware of the reduction in crew sizes and vast increases in automation which have gone on through out the RMN. You might suspect that if the SLN had some half way decent intel services they'd pick up on any of these things. I really think that the MWW stretches Sollie stupidity a bit far in this case. It's become a plot device more than anything.

Other people have said before: it's sort of like the pre-WWI naval arms race in South America. Buying, or building, over-sized over-gunned ships without the budget,personnel or maintenance facilities or munitions to operate, simply to tell the other boys, "mine's bigger!"

Dunno if anyone will bother with this recap, but it amused me.

And I am going merrily murkily lurking for a few days now, unless someone addresses a specific question to me. I am not going to read the next 40 pages. .. .no, no not.!

Regards,
Rob