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Remaining holes in SLN intel

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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:38 pm

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n7axw wrote:
cthia wrote:SLN INTEL

Another thing about SLN intel. Their ONI has to have some of their shit together. It can't be all bad. The League is immense. There is no way that the Mandarins could have effectively ruled over their immense dominion without benefit of impeccable intel. I know that that simply suggests that the microscope is focused inwardly upon itself. Yet, I only mean to point out that the mechanism for serious intelligence gathering is there. If only the League could right the ship, and turn the inwardly facing ONI lenses out.


There is no way that anyone could rule the entire League no matter how good the intel. Core planets, at least, are self governing and for the most part aren't concerned with Old Chicago. The League does play a powerful, but sharply limited role in defense, policing and regulating trade, etc.

As for serious intel, the first step would be curious enough to actually want to know what is going on and secondly be willing to listen to people wanting to offer info. Without that the intel people are just spinning their wheels, just as well take up knitting or something.

Don

-

You make an interesting point. Yet I still wonder about potential overlap of bailiwick. Same as with the FBI and CIA.

For instance, the Mandarins would want to keep abreast of any uppity systems stirring the pot about seceding.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by George J. Smith   » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:12 am

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cthia wrote:You make an interesting point. Yet I still wonder about potential overlap of bailiwick. Same as with the FBI and CIA.
For instance, the Mandarins would want to keep abreast of any uppity systems stirring the pot about seceding.


snip... for brevity

As far as the Mandarins are concerned nobody with even a half functioning brain would want to leave that fine upstanding institution which is the Solarian League. (Well not until Beowulf decided they would have a plebiscite to determine if they would leave, and even then the Mandarins thought they would still be able to overturn the decision if it went the wrong way from their point of view.)
.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by ldwechsler   » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:11 pm

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George J. Smith wrote:
cthia wrote:You make an interesting point. Yet I still wonder about potential overlap of bailiwick. Same as with the FBI and CIA.
For instance, the Mandarins would want to keep abreast of any uppity systems stirring the pot about seceding.


snip... for brevity

As far as the Mandarins are concerned nobody with even a half functioning brain would want to leave that fine upstanding institution which is the Solarian League. (Well not until Beowulf decided they would have a plebiscite to determine if they would leave, and even then the Mandarins thought they would still be able to overturn the decision if it went the wrong way from their point of view.)


There are always big shots who are certain they are smarter than "the people." Right now, the Mandarins are on the ropes and I'm pretty sure it's going to get a lot worse.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Armed Neo-Bob   » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:18 pm

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Sorry --long post. I am just expanding a bit on Don's comment.

Guys- Consider why rfc uses the term "Mandarin" for these guys. It isn't just because they are the civil service bureaucracy; I believe he is also referring to the period when China turned inward, burned it's fleet, and stopped doing anything with the outside world because none of those barbarians had anything to offer really civilized people.

Another thing to consider: rfc, both in the novels and in the pearls, refers again and again to the sheer AGE of the League. There has been NO naval action worth thinking about in CENTURIES. No one and nothing challenged them, so like the folks in the middle ages, most technical and social change stagnated. Mental inertia is the norm; "what was good enough for Granddad is good enuff for me". There isn't a fast rate of technical progress, nor social progress, and the people who would have agitated for change and/or social justice--emigrated. That's why ONI OPS is doing "feel good" analysis of Battle Fleet instead of doing their job. And the 2000 SDs in commission don't exactly help them become aware of any outside threats, when not even the war in the Haven Sector commissioned half of that (For all combatants!)


Finally,although the SLN thinks of itself and its government as "Federal" they are NOT. A League is an assembly of independent and Sovereign States. It is not a Union. It is almost identical to a Confederacy in its organization. Thus, the League government has no authority to conduct police actions on the member systems, nor any police authority in their space unless the locals specifically give it. Go back and look at the US under the Articles of Confederation. Or at other historical Leaguess. Add to that the League of Nations, that tremendously effective organization dominated by the British and French who used it to parcel out the former Ottoman provinces, divide and impoverish their German rivals, and prevent those non-Europeans from enjoying the right to self-determination and self-government (didn't they use those local plebescites mostly to split areas up and weaken the former German and Austrian empires?). FWIW, Ho Chi Minh actually attended the Versailles Conference as a representative of Viet Nam who wanted the French Empire out of Indochina. Social justice? War to end all Wars? riight.

Here, in the absence of serious opposition, the SL government keeps on encroaching on the powers of their member states, likely using federal moneys as their tool. "Do what we want and we build your _____". Sort of like the US Dept of Transportation and the 55 mph federal speed limits.

Some folks are just reading waaay too much into the term "federal".

Feel free to argue, though. :D

Rob





cthia wrote:
n7axw wrote:SLN INTEL

Another thing about SLN intel. Their ONI has to have some of their shit together. It can't be all bad. The League is immense. There is no way that the Mandarins could have effectively ruled over their immense dominion without benefit of impeccable intel. I know that that simply suggests that the microscope is focused inwardly upon itself. Yet, I only mean to point out that the mechanism for serious intelligence gathering is there. If only the League could right the ship, and turn the inwardly facing ONI lenses out.


There is no way that anyone could rule the entire League no matter how good the intel. Core planets, at least, are self governing and for the most part aren't concerned with Old Chicago. The League does play a powerful, but sharply limited role in defense, policing and regulating trade, etc.

As for serious intel, the first step would be curious enough to actually want to know what is going on and secondly be willing to listen to people wanting to offer info. Without that the intel people are just spinning their wheels, just as well take up knitting or something.

Don

-

cthia wrote:You make an interesting point. Yet I still wonder about potential overlap of bailiwick. Same as with the FBI and CIA.

For instance, the Mandarins would want to keep abreast of any uppity systems stirring the pot about seceding.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by kzt   » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:15 pm

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Armed Neo-Bob wrote:Another thing to consider: rfc, both in the novels and in the pearls, refers again and again to the sheer AGE of the League. There has been NO naval action worth thinking about in CENTURIES. No one and nothing challenged them, so like the folks in the middle ages, most technical and social change stagnated. Mental inertia is the norm; "what was good enough for Granddad is good enuff for me".

The combat loss of several ships in ToF should have gotten a whole lot of attention from FF HQ.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Armed Neo-Bob   » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:25 pm

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kzt wrote:
Armed Neo-Bob wrote:Another thing to consider: rfc, both in the novels and in the pearls, refers again and again to the sheer AGE of the League. There has been NO naval action worth thinking about in CENTURIES. No one and nothing challenged them, so like the folks in the middle ages, most technical and social change stagnated. Mental inertia is the norm; "what was good enough for Granddad is good enuff for me".

The combat loss of several ships in ToF should have gotten a whole lot of attention from FF HQ.


Actually, we haven't any views into FF intel, just BF. They ought to have sensor data from: New Tuscany (even if it is just from the locals), Saltash, Spindle, and Zunker. If most of the officers of BF are from the core, it may be that many of the officers of FF are from the Shell. If they are like the idiot Chalker (from Nolan) and engaged in ripping off the locals, they may just mutiny and set up their own little empires. . . .
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Castenea   » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:16 pm

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[quote="Armed Neo-Bob"
Guys- Consider why rfc uses the term "Mandarin" for these guys. It isn't just because they are the civil service bureaucracy; I believe he is also referring to the period when China turned inward, burned it's fleet, and stopped doing anything with the outside world because none of those barbarians had anything to offer really civilized people.

Another thing to consider: rfc, both in the novels and in the pearls, refers again and again to the sheer AGE of the League. There has been NO naval action worth thinking about in CENTURIES. No one and nothing challenged them, so like the folks in the middle ages, most technical and social change stagnated. Mental inertia is the norm; "what was good enough for Granddad is good enuff for me". There isn't a fast rate of technical progress, nor social progress, and the people who would have agitated for change and/or social justice--emigrated. That's why ONI OPS is doing "feel good" analysis of Battle Fleet instead of doing their job. And the 2000 SDs in commission don't exactly help them become aware of any outside threats, when not even the war in the Haven Sector commissioned half of that (For all combatants!)
[/quote]
I will have to protest at your claiming that the middle ages were a period of stagnation. Depending on your exact definition (i like ~1100 to ~1500) in Europe this was a time of striking and fairly steady change. Yes the rate of change was slow compared to what happened after 1830, but that is a very unusual period where in many parts of the world less than 15 years and while you are still in the same country it seems completely foreign.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by n7axw   » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:49 pm

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Castenea wrote:[quote="Armed Neo-Bob"
Guys- Consider why rfc uses the term "Mandarin" for these guys. It isn't just because they are the civil service bureaucracy; I believe he is also referring to the period when China turned inward, burned it's fleet, and stopped doing anything with the outside world because none of those barbarians had anything to offer really civilized people.

Another thing to consider: rfc, both in the novels and in the pearls, refers again and again to the sheer AGE of the League. There has been NO naval action worth thinking about in CENTURIES. No one and nothing challenged them, so like the folks in the middle ages, most technical and social change stagnated. Mental inertia is the norm; "what was good enough for Granddad is good enuff for me". There isn't a fast rate of technical progress, nor social progress, and the people who would have agitated for change and/or social justice--emigrated. That's why ONI OPS is doing "feel good" analysis of Battle Fleet instead of doing their job. And the 2000 SDs in commission don't exactly help them become aware of any outside threats, when not even the war in the Haven Sector commissioned half of that (For all combatants!)

I will have to protest at your claiming that the middle ages were a period of stagnation. Depending on your exact definition (i like ~1100 to ~1500) in Europe this was a time of striking and fairly steady change. Yes the rate of change was slow compared to what happened after 1830, but that is a very unusual period where in many parts of the world less than 15 years and while you are still in the same country it seems completely foreign.[/quote]

Yep. Although things seemed to be the same, a lot of that was illusion. All sorts of stuff was cooking beneath the surface. One turning point that has often been suggested was Guttenburg's invention of the printing press. That led to widespread literacy that accelerated the demise of the feudal system.

Don

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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by pappilon   » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:23 am

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This is a very interesting Thread. There are several valid points. I just have one question.

What is the strategic value of a handful of diplomats? Seizing them is yet another act of war. Beside the threat to their personal safety, there is no point. I'm pretty sure E-III isn't going to reverse both Lacoons and recall her fleets when she sees Carmichael being paraded like a war criminal in front of the cameras on the 7:00 news. They (the Mandarins) can't charge him with treason, he's not a SL citizen. Chaging him with war crimes is more dubious than finding 1001 uses for those obsolete SL SDs in orbit around Manticore.

The Beowulf delegation? Perhaps it may have some marginal effect on the plebescite, but seizing their delegates without a declaration of war is yet another act of war against a member planet. It would more likely drive the vote from 82% to 90%, than it would drive it from 82 to 74%. And even at 74% ...
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by ldwechsler   » Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:27 pm

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pappilon wrote:This is a very interesting Thread. There are several valid points. I just have one question.

What is the strategic value of a handful of diplomats? Seizing them is yet another act of war. Beside the threat to their personal safety, there is no point. I'm pretty sure E-III isn't going to reverse both Lacoons and recall her fleets when she sees Carmichael being paraded like a war criminal in front of the cameras on the 7:00 news. They (the Mandarins) can't charge him with treason, he's not a SL citizen. Chaging him with war crimes is more dubious than finding 1001 uses for those obsolete SL SDs in orbit around Manticore.

The Beowulf delegation? Perhaps it may have some marginal effect on the plebescite, but seizing their delegates without a declaration of war is yet another act of war against a member planet. It would more likely drive the vote from 82% to 90%, than it would drive it from 82 to 74%. And even at 74% ...


Something else we don't know. Is there diplomatic immunity at all in the Honorverse. After all, the League is one general bocy that controls most known planets. So we have the League, Haven, Manticore, Andermann, Grayson and a handful of others. The whole idea of diplomatic immunity might or might not exist.

When Honor came to Haven in MoH, she had a fleet behind her. But Eloise came in to Manticore in a single ship.

We don't know because the issue has really never come up.
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