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Remaining holes in SLN intel

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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by n7axw   » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:59 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
That is the last time Carmichael is seen on-screen, but nor the last time he's mentioned:

[quote"A rising Thunder
Chapter Thirty-five"]“Well, if we’re going to take the position that Beowulf has no right to secede,” MacArtney said, “then Hadley and the rest of their delegation have just committed treason.” He smiled nastily. “That being the case, I think they should be arrested and prevented from leaving the system!”

Oh, that’s a marvelous idea, Kolokoltsov thought bitterly.

“Nathan’s probably right,” Quartermain put in, and Wodoslawski was nodding again.

“And if we’re talking about arresting the bastards for treason over this secession crap,” MacArtney went on, “I think we should consider whether or not their decision to harbor Carmichael doesn’t constitute another act of treason!” His smile was even uglier than before. “If we put the arm on them, then we’re in a position to put the arm on him as well.”

“Whoa! Just slow down, Nathan!” Abruzzi said sharply. “If we start throwing terms like ‘treason’ around now, and start strong-arming Assembly delegates before this plebiscite of theirs has even been voted on, the rest of the delegates are going to raise merry hell. Not because they’re all that fond of Beowulf, either! You think they won’t see that as a precedent that could come home to bite them too?”

“I’m not so sure it would be a bad thing if they did,” MacArtney shot back. “If they figure out we’re going to hammer anybody who looks like they’re turning on us, then they’ll probably think twice—or even three times!—about doing just that.”

“This isn’t the Verge, and we’re not talking about OFS protectorates,” Abruzzi said flatly. “We’re talking about Core Worlds. We’re talking about star systems that have the internal industry to build significant navies of their own if the urge strikes them. We’re already looking at a confrontation against somebody whose weapons technology we can’t match, and you want to go around irritating our own star systems into deciding they have to build a military capability to protect themselves from us?”

The permanent senior undersecretary of education and information shook his head, his expression incredulous, and MacArtney flushed angrily. He opened his mouth to snap something back, but Kolokoltsov raised one hand in a “stop” gesture.

“Calm down, Nathan. And you, Malachai.” He shook his head. “You and Omosupe and Agatá have raised valid concerns, Nathan. But Malachai has a point, too. If we start resorting to the kind of tactics you’re suggesting, we up the ante for everybody, and right this minute, we can’t afford that.”

“We can’t afford not to,” MacArtney replied stubbornly, and Quartermain nodded. Wodoslawski seemed more torn, however, Kolokoltsov noted. “If we don’t get our heel firmly on this kind of thing now, we never will.”

“But Malachai’s right that we can’t get our heel on it right now,” Kolokoltsov said inflexibly. “We literally can’t. So if we try to grab Hadley and Carmichael, we only run the risk of alienating the other Core Worlds at a time when our weakness is going to be obvious to everyone. Especially when grabbing Hadley and Carmichael is the only thing we can do, because we sure as hell aren’t going to be able to follow through by arresting the rest of the Beowulf system government!”



Whether he's still on Earth and captive of the Mandarins depends on whether Kolokoltsov or MacArtney and Quartermain prevail in the argument cited above.

Judging from the SLN's idea of "commerce raiding" I would bet on the "iron fist" faction winning control and incarceration or worse for Carmichael and the Beowulf delegation.


I really don't see anything to change my mind here. This quote was tucked fairly close to Hadley's speech. Admittedly we're both guessing. But there would be no reason for Beowulf's delegation to remain on Sol at this point, and even less for Carmichael. Manticore has, after all, declared war.

Don

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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:07 am

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n7axw wrote:
phillies wrote:Perhaps I missed something, but why do we think the Mandarins have their hands on Carmichael?


Pure speculation. I think it's unlikely myself. He was in the Beowulf compound the last we saw him. My own speculation is that he pulled out with the Beowulf delegation and is probably back in Manticore, No textev on either the Beowulf delegation or Carmichael.
Weird Harold wrote:That is the last time Carmichael is seen on-screen, but nor the last time he's mentioned:

[quote"A rising Thunder"]
Chapter Thirty-five"]“Well, if we’re going to take the position that Beowulf has no right to secede,” MacArtney said, “then Hadley and the rest of their delegation have just committed treason.” He smiled nastily. “That being the case, I think they should be arrested and prevented from leaving the system!”

Oh, that’s a marvelous idea, Kolokoltsov thought bitterly.

“Nathan’s probably right,” Quartermain put in, and Wodoslawski was nodding again.

“And if we’re talking about arresting the bastards for treason over this secession crap,” MacArtney went on, “I think we should consider whether or not their decision to harbor Carmichael doesn’t constitute another act of treason!” His smile was even uglier than before. “If we put the arm on them, then we’re in a position to put the arm on him as well.”

“Whoa! Just slow down, Nathan!” Abruzzi said sharply. “If we start throwing terms like ‘treason’ around now, and start strong-arming Assembly delegates before this plebiscite of theirs has even been voted on, the rest of the delegates are going to raise merry hell. Not because they’re all that fond of Beowulf, either! You think they won’t see that as a precedent that could come home to bite them too?”

“I’m not so sure it would be a bad thing if they did,” MacArtney shot back. “If they figure out we’re going to hammer anybody who looks like they’re turning on us, then they’ll probably think twice—or even three times!—about doing just that.”

“This isn’t the Verge, and we’re not talking about OFS protectorates,” Abruzzi said flatly. “We’re talking about Core Worlds. We’re talking about star systems that have the internal industry to build significant navies of their own if the urge strikes them. We’re already looking at a confrontation against somebody whose weapons technology we can’t match, and you want to go around irritating our own star systems into deciding they have to build a military capability to protect themselves from us?”

The permanent senior undersecretary of education and information shook his head, his expression incredulous, and MacArtney flushed angrily. He opened his mouth to snap something back, but Kolokoltsov raised one hand in a “stop” gesture.

“Calm down, Nathan. And you, Malachai.” He shook his head. “You and Omosupe and Agatá have raised valid concerns, Nathan. But Malachai has a point, too. If we start resorting to the kind of tactics you’re suggesting, we up the ante for everybody, and right this minute, we can’t afford that.”

“We can’t afford not to,” MacArtney replied stubbornly, and Quartermain nodded. Wodoslawski seemed more torn, however, Kolokoltsov noted. “If we don’t get our heel firmly on this kind of thing now, we never will.”

“But Malachai’s right that we can’t get our heel on it right now,” Kolokoltsov said inflexibly. “We literally can’t. So if we try to grab Hadley and Carmichael, we only run the risk of alienating the other Core Worlds at a time when our weakness is going to be obvious to everyone. Especially when grabbing Hadley and Carmichael is the only thing we can do, because we sure as hell aren’t going to be able to follow through by arresting the rest of the Beowulf system government!”

Weird Harold wrote:Whether he's still on Earth and captive of the Mandarins depends on whether Kolokoltsov or MacArtney and Quartermain prevail in the argument cited above.

Judging from the SLN's idea of "commerce raiding" I would bet on the "iron fist" faction winning control and incarceration or worse for Carmichael and the Beowulf delegation.


Thanks for the textev Harold. I remember seeing that but lost contact with the homing beacon. Wonderful textev.

Phillies, we think the League still has him after this meeting of the minds.

I'm emphasizing the fact that the League never got around to signing that treaty. On top of that, I think it depends on how badly this mess with Beowulf aggravates them. And also on how much Manticore's high-handedness irritates them. Which is a lot, on both accounts. Lacoon has left Carmichael and the delegation stranded.

IOW, the League never had a moment to be in a good enough mood to let either Carmichael or the delegation go. Heck, the Mandarins' arrogance would never even allow them to respond to formal correspondence. Let alone respect some treaty they never even signed. IMHO.

Besides, Carmichael and the entire delegation are important players in this mess. We all want for their safety, but in absence of raw textev to the contrary, we simply cannot assume their freedom.

AND the fact that things aren't always tidy and neat.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by phillies   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:20 am

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I don't have an opinion one way or the other as to whether or not Carmichael and the Beowulf delegation left. It is my recollection that the referendum had not yet occurred, so that Beowulf is a League member at this point. Attacking their delegation might be recognized as tilting further the odds in the vote, assuming that the Mandarins realize that Beowulf referenda actually involve counting the ballots to determine the outcome.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Brigade XO   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:06 pm

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Lacoon (neither of them) has left not left Carmichael or the Beowulf delegation stranded. It is a straight hyperspace journy from Sol to Beowulf unless there would normally be some intervening wormhole components that have 1) not previously been mentioned in the series and 2) one or more of those wormholes was taken in Lacoon II and 3) there is no non-SL flagged merchant ship left calling on Sol that is going to Beowulf.
There is also the possibility that there is either a Beowulf Diplomatic Ship in the Sol system (or even a Beowulf SDF ship (armed) there. It sounded like Carmichael is under Beowulf Diplomatic protection and, unless the Mandarins want to rip open another problem for themselves they would have difficulty peacefully detaining the Beowulf Delegation and others with diplomatic coverage which probably means that if Carmichael travels with the Beowulf Diplomats in Diplomatic conveyance to a Beowulf transport (preferably diplomatic) then all of them are going to be able to at least leave the planet.

If you want to get all convoluted on this, and Beowulf does't have it's own transportation available, you could allow the Beowulf delegation, embasy (the Beowulfian Citizens part of it) and Carmichael (and any other Manticoran citizens in the Beowulf embassy) to take a commerical or private charter ship away from Sol but have that as a snatch job and then have "somebody" report the destruction of said transport. You then use any and all means available in the present Honoervers to interrogate everybody including Carmichael. After all, they are dead and you have lots of places to hid the bodies (drop them into a star would work).

The truth is we just don't know and won't till RFC gives us more.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:34 pm

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The thing is, Manticore very likely needed the services of the Embassy—by extension Carmichael and the delegation—to remain on planet up to and including the conclusion of the referendum on Beowulf. Relations could really fly South for the winter. Like, really far South. Manticore would need someone on planet to intercede.*

Also, it seems to me that Beowulf would choose to leave their delegation in place as well.

1. It is still needed there. Especially now that there's a formal referendum about to commence that is so unprecedented.

2. Pulling out would seem to telegraph the notion to the League that they've already made up their minds regarding the voting, and that the formality of a referendum is nothing more than mock window dressing.

Their collective duties may have kept them there. Embassy work is also required in times of bad. Not just good. The former is more commonly the need.

*Like it appears to have done with the destruction that happens on Beowulf. When talks break down, lives are destroyed.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by n7axw   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:08 pm

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cthia wrote:The thing is, Manticore very likely needed the services of the Embassy—by extension Carmichael and the delegation—to remain on planet up to and including the conclusion of the referendum on Beowulf. Relations could really fly South for the winter. Like, really far South. Manticore would need someone on planet to intercede.*

Also, it seems to me that Beowulf would choose to leave their delegation in place as well.

1. It is still needed there. Especially now that there's a formal referendum about to commence that is so unprecedented.

2. Pulling out would seem to telegraph the notion to the League that they've already made up their minds regarding the voting, and that the formality of a referendum is nothing more than mock window dressing.

Their collective duties may have kept them there. Embassy work is also required in times of bad. Not just good. The former is more commonly the need.

*Like it appears to have done with the destruction that happens on Beowulf. When talks break down, lives are destroyed.


I think that the Beowulf delegation and Carmichael have gone home. In Carmichael's case his star nation is at war with the League and nations don't maintain diplomatic relations with nations with whom they are at war. In the Beowulf delegation, they have gone home to consult with their government and will return only if the vote reaffirms Beowulf's status in the League.

There is no textev to support any of my speculation, but were in Beowulf's shoes I would have ordered the delegation home to prevent the kind of treatment described in the previous posts.

Now we'll see how RFC sorts it out.

Don

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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:31 pm

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n7axw wrote:
cthia wrote:The thing is, Manticore very likely needed the services of the Embassy—by extension Carmichael and the delegation—to remain on planet up to and including the conclusion of the referendum on Beowulf. Relations could really fly South for the winter. Like, really far South. Manticore would need someone on planet to intercede.*

Also, it seems to me that Beowulf would choose to leave their delegation in place as well.

1. It is still needed there. Especially now that there's a formal referendum about to commence that is so unprecedented.

2. Pulling out would seem to telegraph the notion to the League that they've already made up their minds regarding the voting, and that the formality of a referendum is nothing more than mock window dressing.

Their collective duties may have kept them there. Embassy work is also required in times of bad. Not just good. The former is more commonly the need.

*Like it appears to have done with the destruction that happens on Beowulf. When talks break down, lives are destroyed.


I think that the Beowulf delegation and Carmichael have gone home. In Carmichael's case his star nation is at war with the League and nations don't maintain diplomatic relations with nations with whom they are at war. In the Beowulf delegation, they have gone home to consult with their government and will return only if the vote reaffirms Beowulf's status in the League.

There is no textev to support any of my speculation, but were in Beowulf's shoes I would have ordered the delegation home to prevent the kind of treatment described in the previous posts.

Now we'll see how RFC sorts it out.

Don

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I agree with you wholeheartedly. As I stated before, they all should have been recalled home before Lacoon was initiated, considering the arrogant source. But again, they were needed. I know for a fact that Carmichael was still performing his duties right up to trying to talk the League out of Operation Raging Justice. After that fiasco, Beowulf and Carmichael weren't going anywhere because Beowulf conspired to help the enemy. Which lost them their special status, right along with Carmichael's hopes of holding up there.

'Tis my limited take on it.

At any rate, they could all be home even in absence of supporting textev. It could also be wishful thinking.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:01 pm

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SLN INTEL

Another thing about SLN intel. Their ONI has to have some of their shit together. It can't be all bad. The League is immense. There is no way that the Mandarins could have effectively ruled over their immense dominion without benefit of impeccable intel. I know that that simply suggests that the microscope is focused inwardly upon itself. Yet, I only mean to point out that the mechanism for serious intelligence gathering is there. If only the League could right the ship, and turn the inwardly facing ONI lenses out.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Weird Harold   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:32 pm

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cthia wrote:...Another thing about SLN intel. Their ONI has to have some of their shit together. It can't be all bad. The League is immense. There is no way that the Mandarins could have effectively ruled over their immense sphere of influence without benefit of impeccable intel. ...


You're confusing Naval Intelligence (or Military Intelligence) with Political Inteligence (for lack of a better term.)

The Mandarins don't rely on ONI for the information they need to run the SL, they depend on something like the modern FBI, or industrial espionage for the political leverage they need to maintain control. They also have the Gendarmerie's "black ops" (such as employed Damien Harahap when we first meet him,) which is very good at fomenting or dealing with civilian unrest, but only interested in avoiding big Navies.

If the SLN ONI is providing domestic intelligence to the Mandarins, they're not doing the job they are supposed to be doing; tracking the capabilities of potential foes (or allies) military forces.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by n7axw   » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:04 pm

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cthia wrote:SLN INTEL

Another thing about SLN intel. Their ONI has to have some of their shit together. It can't be all bad. The League is immense. There is no way that the Mandarins could have effectively ruled over their immense dominion without benefit of impeccable intel. I know that that simply suggests that the microscope is focused inwardly upon itself. Yet, I only mean to point out that the mechanism for serious intelligence gathering is there. If only the League could right the ship, and turn the inwardly facing ONI lenses out.


There is no way that anyone could rule the entire League no matter how good the intel. Core planets, at least, are self governing and for the most part aren't concerned with Old Chicago. The League does play a powerful, but sharply limited role in defense, policing and regulating trade, etc.

As for serious intel, the first step would be curious enough to actually want to know what is going on and secondly be willing to listen to people wanting to offer info. Without that the intel people are just spinning their wheels, just as well take up knitting or something.

Don

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