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Upcoming surplus of junior officers

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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by n7axw   » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:13 pm

n7axw
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Sigs wrote:
n7axw wrote:
The real determinate on the size of the fleet and whether there is a personnel shortage will be war or peace. If there is peace, the size of Saganami will shrink, probably going back to what it was when Honor went through, although with added responsibilities in Silesia and Talbot, maybe not quite that small. But continued war will continue to absorb manpower and Saganami's size will be fhe same as now or even larger.

Keep in mind that when Honor went through the academy Manticore was a single system nation with an expanding fleet. Even if peace returns stability ensues the fleet that would be extremely large for 1 system nation would not be quite sufficient to guarantee the security of a 30 system nation. So they will likely expand even in peace unless the war last so long that it allows to effectively tap Silesia and Talbott's population and increases the navy to levels not needed in peacetime.

Even then there would be verge, protectorates, shell systems and even some core nations which will be sending their officers to go through the Manticoran Academy while building up their military.

n7axw wrote:I doubt that there is going to be much of a surplus of people even with the loss of construction capability from Oyster Bay. For one thing, that construction capacity is being rebuilt as quickly as possible. Secondly Haven is at least partially making up the shortfall of hulls. Finally, Manticore took a huge hit personnel-wise from both the first BOM and Oyster Bay. That makes what we have here a dislocation on a remporary basis rather than a true surplus.

Your idea about using dislocated personnel to start schools in Silesia is a good one, bearing in mind that you need experienced people for that, not newbies.

Don

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The war has no end in sight mainly because even if the League collapses the MA is still very much an unknown. So it is imperative to put every asset you have to use. The Merchant marine with a lot of reservists is sitting around doing nothing productive, even when Haven opens up that would still leave a lot of reservists laying about waiting for work.


Manticore and Grayson will get their construction capability back quickly but it will likely not be 100% that quickly. So Manticoran or Grayson SD's will likely not be coming into service for at least a few years and likely a decade before they start pumping out SD(P)s in any significant numbers.

1) In their place I would let Haven take all of the new construction as they still have a lot of manpower left over and still might have some SD's in service.

2) I would immediately start scrapping SD's like HMS Hercules in Talbott, in all the books that ship has done preciously little to affect the outcome in any way. Thats 5,000 people right there and then scrap any light combatant that is way too close to SLN tech levels. If a light combatant would be hard pressed when fighting a rival of a similar class then it should be scrapped and and put the manpower back into other needs.

3) Haven and Manticore are going to exchange prisoners, it might not be too great a boost but getting all of their POW's back would be good. After all the Alliance lost almost all the opening battle of Thunderbolt, and Haven captured all those systems and with them any of the Alliance survivors.


I would certainly agree that the RMN will be a bigger peacetime navy now than they needed as single star system. But they won't have to expand to get to the size they need from where they are as a wartime fleet. I suspect the tilt will be more toward light units for showing the flag and policing purposes.

I would imagine all those pows have already been exchanged and Sollies have taken their place.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by Sigs   » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:42 pm

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n7axw wrote:
I would certainly agree that the RMN will be a bigger peacetime navy now than they needed as single star system. But they won't have to expand to get to the size they need from where they are as a wartime fleet. I suspect the tilt will be more toward light units for showing the flag and policing purposes.

I would imagine all those pows have already been exchanged and Sollies have taken their place.

Don

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The RMN is by no means large, after the Battle of Manticore they lost a significant number of Wallers. Between Grayson and Manticore they had probably less than 200 SD(P)s in service.

With somewhere in the neighbourhood of 30 systems, they would need several hundred SD(P)s to ensure security in addition to lighter combatants and LAC's. Even a peacetime Home Fleet would number in the dozens for Manticore after Oyster Bay.


The exchange of POW my very well have taken place but we have not seen much of the effect of said exchange. They may be 1,000 RMN members or it may be 150,000 members either care its surplus of personnel that with some effort will be reintegrated into the navy's numbers. Just the nearly 400,000 Havenites would keep the RHN busy trying to find ships for them, I doubt that the RMN and GSN POW are anywhere nearly as numerous but still even if it is 20,000 it still is something.
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by Theemile   » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:09 pm

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Sigs wrote:
n7axw wrote:
I would certainly agree that the RMN will be a bigger peacetime navy now than they needed as single star system. But they won't have to expand to get to the size they need from where they are as a wartime fleet. I suspect the tilt will be more toward light units for showing the flag and policing purposes.

I would imagine all those pows have already been exchanged and Sollies have taken their place.

Don

-


The RMN is by no means large, after the Battle of Manticore they lost a significant number of Wallers. Between Grayson and Manticore they had probably less than 200 SD(P)s in service.

With somewhere in the neighbourhood of 30 systems, they would need several hundred SD(P)s to ensure security in addition to lighter combatants and LAC's. Even a peacetime Home Fleet would number in the dozens for Manticore after Oyster Bay.


The exchange of POW my very well have taken place but we have not seen much of the effect of said exchange. They may be 1,000 RMN members or it may be 150,000 members either care its surplus of personnel that with some effort will be reintegrated into the navy's numbers. Just the nearly 400,000 Havenites would keep the RHN busy trying to find ships for them, I doubt that the RMN and GSN POW are anywhere nearly as numerous but still even if it is 20,000 it still is something.


The RMN only lost about 80 SDs at BoMa, of which ~25 were normal SDs. The GSN only lost ~60 SDs, of which ~20 were tube SDs. Manticore still has ~175 tube SDs and ~50 pre- python lump SD(p)s. Heck, 10 fleet has 20 Medusas without the Keyhole upgrades.

The GSN still has ~ 70 tube SDs and at least 125 SD(p)s left after BoMA. Both could field > 200 SDs right after BoMa.
Last edited by Theemile on Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just about as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by n7axw   » Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:15 pm

n7axw
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Thanks, Theemile, for providing that detail on those numbers. I went back into MOH into a statement by White Haven noting in which he noted that we've got almost that many wallers of our own in context of discussing that the League was going to throw about 400 wallers at Manticore. I presume that this includes the Graysons, although we do know that Manticore got most of its new construction out of the yards to Trevor's Star before the Yawatta strike moved in. I am unaware of how many wallers were included in that.

Also we have textev for 150 Grayson wallers present at 2nd Manticore which would imply 250 wallers for the RMN to come up with the approximately 400 that White Haven was refering to. We only can account for about 100 of those at 2nd Manticore however: 40 with Honor and 60 with Trumann in the faceoff with Tsang in Beoeulf system. We also know that their is a contingent with Gold Peak at 10th Fleet, but I don't rememember how many for sure how many, but I think about 20. The remainder would be unaccounted for unless somebody has better info than mine.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by Theemile   » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:08 am

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n7axw wrote:Thanks, Theemile, for providing that detail on those numbers. I went back into MOH into a statement by White Haven noting in which he noted that we've got almost that many wallers of our own in context of discussing that the League was going to throw about 400 wallers at Manticore. I presume that this includes the Graysons, although we do know that Manticore got most of its new construction out of the yards to Trevor's Star before the Yawatta strike moved in. I am unaware of how many wallers were included in that.

Also we have textev for 150 Grayson wallers present at 2nd Manticore which would imply 250 wallers for the RMN to come up with the approximately 400 that White Haven was refering to. We only can account for about 100 of those at 2nd Manticore however: 40 with Honor and 60 with Trumann in the faceoff with Tsang in Beoeulf system. We also know that their is a contingent with Gold Peak at 10th Fleet, but I don't rememember how many for sure how many, but I think about 20. The remainder would be unaccounted for unless somebody has better info than mine.

Don

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The size of the python lump has never been stated, but most estimates start around 120 ships - the number of SD(p)s simultaneously under construction in the first war at Manticore ( though in varying points of construction then). Myself (and others) think this Number to be conservative given the build numbers of smaller ships in the 2nd war, and the continued emphasis on the reversal of fortunes once the lump was complete. That middle estimate usually places the lump at 180-210 SD(p)s.

The entire lump was out of the yards when the Yawata Strike hit, catching the next wave with as much as 20% complete. ( Most less). Given the timing, some of the last of the lump might have been still working up at Trevor's Star, and not yet available to play.

As for where the other ships are, don't forget, Manticore has other defensive commitments for it's fleet, like Trevor's Star and Basilisk, and allies like Zanzibar and Idaho. Heck it wouldn't surprise me if a squadron or 2 were at Grayson, freeing up Grayson hulls to "make a point" to the Sollies.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just about as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by Sigs   » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:26 am

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Theemile wrote:
Sigs wrote:
The RMN is by no means large, after the Battle of Manticore they lost a significant number of Wallers. Between Grayson and Manticore they had probably less than 200 SD(P)s in service.

With somewhere in the neighbourhood of 30 systems, they would need several hundred SD(P)s to ensure security in addition to lighter combatants and LAC's. Even a peacetime Home Fleet would number in the dozens for Manticore after Oyster Bay.


The exchange of POW my very well have taken place but we have not seen much of the effect of said exchange. They may be 1,000 RMN members or it may be 150,000 members either care its surplus of personnel that with some effort will be reintegrated into the navy's numbers. Just the nearly 400,000 Havenites would keep the RHN busy trying to find ships for them, I doubt that the RMN and GSN POW are anywhere nearly as numerous but still even if it is 20,000 it still is something.


The RMN only lost about 80 SDs at BoMa, of which ~25 were normal SDs. The GSN only lost ~60 SDs, of which ~20 were tube SDs. Manticore still has ~175 tube SDs and ~50 pre- python lump SD(p)s. Heck, 10 fleet has 20 Medusas without the Keyhole upgrades.

The GSN still has ~ 70 tube SDs and at least 125 SD(p)s left after BoMA. Both could field > 200 SDs right after BoMa.


In the book it said at one point that the Alliance had 215 SD(P)'s left over in total. Now unless the IAN Send all of their SD(P)'s to Manticore and lost them all they should have at least 20-40 of the total.

The Alliance started the war with 232 SD(P)'s, they lost ~103 SD(P)'s in BoM(Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 1 squadron from 8th Fleet). So before the battle the Alliance had ~318 SD(P)'s and were left with 215 SD(P)'s.


Since I doubt that the IAN send all of their SD(P)'s to Manticoran Home Fleet and 8th Fleet they likely had some left over for their own Home Fleet, maybe not as numerous as the RMN or GSN home fleet but still 20-30.

I would say that of the 103 SD(P)'s lost they would be relatively equally split ~40% to both GSN and RMN and ~20% or so to the IAN.


If I remember correctly 8th Fleet held a disproportionate number of IAN ships at least 3 Squadrons of 8 ships each.


I doubt that the RMN after BoM can field more than 75-85 SD(P)'s with a similar number for the GSN.
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by Sigs   » Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:33 am

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Theemile wrote:
n7axw wrote:Thanks, Theemile, for providing that detail on those numbers. I went back into MOH into a statement by White Haven noting in which he noted that we've got almost that many wallers of our own in context of discussing that the League was going to throw about 400 wallers at Manticore. I presume that this includes the Graysons, although we do know that Manticore got most of its new construction out of the yards to Trevor's Star before the Yawatta strike moved in. I am unaware of how many wallers were included in that.

Also we have textev for 150 Grayson wallers present at 2nd Manticore which would imply 250 wallers for the RMN to come up with the approximately 400 that White Haven was refering to. We only can account for about 100 of those at 2nd Manticore however: 40 with Honor and 60 with Trumann in the faceoff with Tsang in Beoeulf system. We also know that their is a contingent with Gold Peak at 10th Fleet, but I don't rememember how many for sure how many, but I think about 20. The remainder would be unaccounted for unless somebody has better info than mine.

Don

-



The size of the python lump has never been stated, but most estimates start around 120 ships - the number of SD(p)s simultaneously under construction in the first war at Manticore ( though in varying points of construction then). Myself (and others) think this Number to be conservative given the build numbers of smaller ships in the 2nd war, and the continued emphasis on the reversal of fortunes once the lump was complete. That middle estimate usually places the lump at 180-210 SD(p)s.

The entire lump was out of the yards when the Yawata Strike hit, catching the next wave with as much as 20% complete. ( Most less). Given the timing, some of the last of the lump might have been still working up at Trevor's Star, and not yet available to play.

As for where the other ships are, don't forget, Manticore has other defensive commitments for it's fleet, like Trevor's Star and Basilisk, and allies like Zanzibar and Idaho. Heck it wouldn't surprise me if a squadron or 2 were at Grayson, freeing up Grayson hulls to "make a point" to the Sollies.



So in 2 years the Alliance nearly doubled their SD(P)'s? I know that the GSN had ships in their yards but I doubt it was that many and most of the RMN's SD(P) construction was destroyed in Thunderbolt so where did they come from? How many are actually IAN ships that are no longer at the Alliances disposal?
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by n7axw   » Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:13 am

n7axw
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Good questions, Sigs. Theemile and I were just extrapolating on basis of available textev. I do suspect that your figures are low. Early in the series, Admiral Cortez in the course of a discussion mentioned that Manticore had as many as 250 wallers under construction. But that would have included those lost building slips in Grendesbane. IIRC there were 90 of those which were lost in Thunderbolt. That would leave 160 at Manticore which then becomes the number of SDs that could have escaped OB to Trevor's Star.

Frankly, this is speculation on textev that is a bit thin on the ground.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by Theemile   » Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:38 am

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Sigs wrote:
Theemile wrote:
In the book it said at one point that the Alliance had 215 SD(P)'s left over in total. Now unless the IAN Send all of their SD(P)'s to Manticore and lost them all they should have at least 20-40 of the total.

The Alliance started the war with 232 SD(P)'s, they lost ~103 SD(P)'s in BoM(Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 1 squadron from 8th Fleet). So before the battle the Alliance had ~318 SD(P)'s and were left with 215 SD(P)'s.


Since I doubt that the IAN send all of their SD(P)'s to Manticoran Home Fleet and 8th Fleet they likely had some left over for their own Home Fleet, maybe not as numerous as the RMN or GSN home fleet but still 20-30.

I would say that of the 103 SD(P)'s lost they would be relatively equally split ~40% to both GSN and RMN and ~20% or so to the IAN.


If I remember correctly 8th Fleet held a disproportionate number of IAN ships at least 3 Squadrons of 8 ships each.


I doubt that the RMN after BoM can field more than 75-85 SD(P)'s with a similar number for the GSN.


I don't have the exact figures in front of me, but we know the RMN portion of Home Fleet lost, and how many were SDs and SD(p)s. We do not know the proportion of 3rd fleet, unfortunately, other than it was all Medusa/Harringtons, with no Keyholes, other than Allistair's squadron. We also know 20 Medusas survived out of 63 built.

As for build rates, I was looking at the fleet list and HOS the other day, and Grayson was chucking out over 3 SDs a month for the 14 months between the 2 counts. They would have added more than 50 ships before BoMA, and an additional ~25 before OB.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just about as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Upcoming surplus of junior officers
Post by Sigs   » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:05 am

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n7axw wrote:Good questions, Sigs. Theemile and I were just extrapolating on basis of available textev. I do suspect that your figures are low. Early in the series, Admiral Cortez in the course of a discussion mentioned that Manticore had as many as 250 wallers under construction. But that would have included those lost building slips in Grendesbane. IIRC there were 90 of those which were lost in Thunderbolt. That would leave 160 at Manticore which then becomes the number of SDs that could have escaped OB to Trevor's Star.

Frankly, this is speculation on textev that is a bit thin on the ground.

Don

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At the beginning of at all costs there is a meeting between the Queen, PM, Admiralty and Adm. Harrington. In that meeting it is stated after what happened in Grendelsbane, they had only 35 SD(P)'s under construction to be commissioned within 6-10 months. In their own words their pod-laying wall will consist of no more than 110 SD(P)'s for at least 2 years. This discussion is at most a month or two into the war.


IAN had 42 SD(P)s in commission and another 90 SD(P)'s in various states of completion. Some would not be done for 18 months but let's say there was a push and finished all earlier that is 132 SD(P)'s

Adm. Caparelli estimates that within 18 months, if construction hold up they should have roughly 400 SD(P)'s between the GSN, RMN and IAN.

This leads me to believe that the GSN had 43 SD(P)'s under construction on top of their 115 SD(P)'s in service.

Oyster Bay happened roughy 2 years after the start of the war. How many SD(P)'s could realistcly be build in the two years between Thunderbolt and Oysterbay considering that 168 SD(P)'s were build by the alliance in the two years of war.

#1 between the first and second war, at least to me it seemed like Grayson was on war footing so they couldn't likely have put more SD(P)'s down simultaneously before those they had under construction left the Yards. So they might have laid down 10-15 more immediately at the start of the war but I can't imagine it would be much more than that.


#2 the IAN was having problems getting it's ships finished as it was so I doubt they laid down any new once until some of the once they had under construction were done.

#3 the only one who had capacity to letdown a lot of new ships was Manticore and they would have stated within a couple of months of the war since they would need to get organized and get resrouces, infrastructure and manpower in place to lay down the ships.



By the BoM SD(P)'s strength would be:

RMN ~110 SD(P)'s
IAN ~132 SD(P)'s
GSN ~153 SD(P)'s


If the Alliance lost 139 SD(P)'s in BoM which would be at about the 18 month mark, it leads me to believe that the alliance had ~261 SD(P)'s. That is assuming that in the first 18 months of the war the Allies did not lose a single SD(P) which is not the case.

If both the Andermani and Grayson were struggling to finish the ships they had in the yards the only one who can contribute significantly to any lump of SD(P)'s is Manticore which would mean they essentially double their fleet after loosing one of their main yards at the beginning of the war.

If we look at the causalities in the BoM proportional to the fleet strength at time of BoM we can assume that the remaining fleet was:

- RMN had ~76 SD(P)'s.
- IAN had ~86 SD(P)'s
- GSN had ~99 SD(P)'s.

Once again that assumes nothing was lost in the 18 months of war. We know that is not true since 11 SD(P)'s were lost in Zanzibar alone. They also lost 1 SD(P) in Solon. There might have been more but I can't remember at the moment.

So post BoM there would have been ~260 SD(P)'s in Alliance fleet minus what was lost in the 18 months of war aside from BoM.


I can't see there being a lump of 120 SD(P)'s being done over and above the once already counted as under construction in the 2 years between thunderbolt and Oyster Bay since manticore would have had to lay down immediately at start of war around 100 SD(P)'s to have them out of the yard hands before Oyster Bay and Grayson would have to have laid down the other 20 SD(P)'s immediately as well even though they were also struggling to finance the once they were building. and that would bring the alliance fleet up to 295 SD(P)'s after we remove the IAN.


At second Manticore the GA had:
-RHN ~250 SD(P)'s
-GSN ~150 SD(P)'s
-RMN~40 SD(P)'s + 60 SD(P)'s at Beowulf and 12-20 SD(P)'s with 10th Fleet.

This implies to me that the RMN took much heavier casualties in BoM than Grayson and the ~120 SD(P)'s they had at Second Manticore were all they had +/- a squadron or two.'


And with that many GSN wallers in Second Manticore they would have had to nearly strip the GSN Home Fleet to the barebones.
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