lyonheart wrote:Hello TheEmile,
Kudos!
Excellent points as usual, along with everybody else's too.
I'm sorry this is so late, but life never waits.
I just want to add a few points:
Given UH ends in March 1923 PD, ie there's only 5-6 monthes from the early October of CoG and SoV to go, this thread is rather moot.
Considering the next story arc starts some 20 years in the future, things have to be soon set in stone, unless RFC wants lots of back story to bring us up to date then, not a preferred authorial practice, so the SL's defeat must be obviously inevitable or immediate and has to be assured soon.
Thus there's no time for any local member system with possible equal or superior tech [to the SLN] to succor the SL/N, particularly given interstellar distances and travel time, since any nearby core world [if they had had any such tech and were so inclined] would have already provided it, but because the mandarins haven't told the rest of the SL members at large that they're at war, any who might have something better and were willing to share may still not know [or know too late], which would be rather enjoyably ironic if such a SL member existed and could have saved the SL if only they had been more quickly informed by the mandarins a year ago when Byng was executed or when Crandall eliminated.
The real problem as Pappilion intimated is that the SLN is still so grossly ignorant about the GA; they don't have a clue just how deep the hole they're in is, and or where to begin to develop new doctrine, let alone building the hardware to implement it.
It might be better to ask some more specific questions:
1) Just what would the SDF observers have been able to learn if they were always stuck on Manticore and Haven?
Given the excellent security demonstrated by the RMN and PRHN and RHN, not that much; more accurate missiles with very improved ECM-yes, missile pods once the PRHN started using them [which took several years]-yes, and eventually pod and LAC carriers if they paid attention after the armistice, but how much else, especially when the military devil's in the details?
2) Exactly what does the SLN know about the GA tech advantage and the RMN in particular?
Present Answer: So far that they have missiles with ~30 million km [29.2248 million km] powered ranges, that their SD's or SDP's can carry missile pods internally, that they have FTL communications across planetary systems, though they apparently have yet to appreciate that tactically[except by those that have been captured], and that they have powerful LAC's, at least defensively, [which they may know can also be carried internally, though this may not have been something the GA shared in their message to Terra]; they have yet to see them operate offensively, granted their sensor suites are too poor to see the stealthy GA LAC's actually in action.
Which if I haven't left anything out, leaves many more unknown unknowns than what it knows for the SLN.
Ignorantly sailing into such mysterious waters can only result in vast disaster.
Seriously, has anyone or has everyone collectively put together a list of everything the SLN doesn't know about the RMN and the GA?
I know I tried almost a year ago, but haven't seen any thread that compiled a complete list though I didn't check in for around 6 monthes... mea culpa.
Quite aside from MDM's with twice if not more than three times the range the SLN thinks it knows, and the incredible missile storms the GA can generate, there's the fire control, the real time recon and raid assessment the stealthy recon drones can provide, then the incredible accuracy of Apollo, especially at extended ranges, the Mk-23 Echo's AI and what that portends, Mistletoe, NTM the potential for RD's to attack SLN ships ballistically after accelerating to say, .5C or .6C using thrusters only for final corrections, seeming to be practically invisible, especially against their poor sensor net.
Please feel free to add to the list above, I don't have time here to check my list upstairs.
BTW, if the war ends within 5-6 monthes, it is impossible any Bolthole built SDP's will be even half finished or completed in time, rather they will be the post war standard for the GA, until the streak drive equipped units become available [5-10 years from now?], with the earlier pre-Apollo SDP's probably being sold to trustworthy allies, rather than the SLN trash we've suggested for around 10-12 years.
Thus there's no time to develop a counter to Apollo when they still don't know it exists [what could it be?], and how it renders all their ECM obsolete, given 'barricade' how can they risk long ballistic phases in their cataphracts, even if they knew it also existed?
They are horribly screwed in a fashion rarely seen or set up by authors [off hand, I don't know of any other example]; dependent solely on the mercy of their enemies, there's definitely no way out, so deal with it.
Regarding the fascinating financial discussion, all have made excellent and important points, but again given the accelerating avalanche about to bury the mandarins, it is also rather moot, since the time left isn't enough for the financial situation to be affected much either way; the collapse of the SL's control of verge is only a matter of time, ie when enough GA ships arrive [there are thousands of them], as is the destruction of all or almost all of the FF commerce raiders dispatched to Silesia etc [that's why the MAlign had them sent, to eliminate the best ships and crews the SLN has], leaving the ~1500 BF active SD's [very easy targets] and the 8300-8400 in reserve, the former need only 200 MDM's each or 10 RMN pods, the latter only a couple of missiles at most, if laserhead mistletoe's can't kill a dozen at once.
Since the SLN knows HA-H has at least 250,000 pods available to her [because Filaretta didn't dispute her figures], NTM the likelihood that the SLN dismisses her reference to having 2.5 million pods under her control, but only 25 to 30% of that small number are needed to completely destroy the SLN, so one wonders just how much of what it does know that the SLN staff is sharing with those on the sharp edge sent out to discover just how many more of those mortal "unk-unks" remain.
At what point do the admirals, captains, and crews of those ships begin to fathom just how completely outmatched they are?
Then what do they do?
To prevent mass condemnation when the rest of humanity eventually realizes just how outmatched the SLN is/was, what can the GA do to mitigate charges of massacre, etc?
Does Honor plan multiple repeats of her Apollo range demonstration to Lester whenever there's a large SLN fleet to appreciate it?
Of course, she has probably put them into such a tactical situation they all have to surrender, but the newsies will be free to spread their first hand scoop throughout the SL and beyond.
Is that why she's able to meet with Kingsford so quickly?
Because there aren't anymore SLN fleets?
Very interesting times indeed.
L
What they know and what they won't dismiss out-of-hand are two different things entirely. They don't know how much acceleration the GA is holding in reserve across their fleet. They have a clue about FTL missile control. They know about Hermes buoys so Missile control is just a logical assumption. They may know how it is done ie Keyhole and MK 23E control missiles. They know GA or at least Manticore alliance drones are much stealthier and have better sensor quality than SLN. They know their ddms are faster than GA ones. They do know about LAC carriers, Even Mesa defense Force knows (toward the end of SOV). They don't know Mycroft and its little brother Moriarty(oops!) They have pretty much seen everything else.
What they have time for is Barregos in Maya to activate Operation Sepoy and pull his entire sector from the SL, face a mass of BF/FF task force and crush it, part of Michelle's 10th Fleet that is swanning around looking for victims of Operation Janus to capture/destroy whatever detachments of SLN they come across. An EE attack on Beowulf which sends Harrington down that invasion corridor The Mandarins are worried about, and for the RF to pull outof the SL as well, perhaps abandoning Darius when the discover that Alpha One bought the farm at Mesa. (Are they really going to follow Benjamin & Colin?)