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Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolthole?

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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by cthia   » Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:18 am

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We have discussed the worth of hitting Bolthole for the weaponry. Yet if the MAN does attack and gets in a golden BB that kills the Shewolves of the S&S (Sonja and Shannon) along with many of their best assistants and techs, that would be a huge blow—materially and psychologically—to the GA.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:18 pm

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I agree with kzt, Beowulf is both a more likely target and a more valuable one. I agree with Theemile, another attack pushes their luck. Perhaps they will push their luck dangerously close, like the Hofschultz affair. Beowulf has state of the art sensors all around their system. Using what the GA has discovered from both the SEM experience and Simoes' contribution, that massive sensor array will very likely sniff something. So even if the attack is successful, it might provide evidence that the League cannot be made to ignore regarding the Malign.

That defeats the entire plan. The League's disintegration slows to a far less chaotic series of secessions. Rump state successors will not be nearly as desperate for the RF's help getting re-established.

The risk is too great. Better to have a strong GA vilified by the ex-Core worlds than a weaker GA 's paranoia vindicated in the eyes of a League successfully gathering its balance.
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by SharkHunter   » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:20 am

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My argument is "absolutely not"... but plot wise, it would be a "be my guest" thing. Keep in mind that Manticore in going back over ALL of their sensor records with supercomputers that make today's best look like SBCs. It is extremely unlikely that type of data won't be dispatch boated to wherever Sonya is at, AND to Beowulf... tripling the locations analyzing the records. (that doesn't even count Grayson which is now a first line navy also).

So for the sake of plot alternatives, Bolthole's location is going to be honeypotted to the extreme... but ultimately the MAlign gets it narrowed down to two or three. They still have to scout the system sufficiently to set up targeting, as others described, and send their ships "the long way around" (no wormholes) with no resupply. Meaning a long logistics train to refuel the LDs or Sharks enroute. Gotta keep those ships undetected also...

For the sake of argument, you dispatch the LDets. Leaving home-base (Darius) undefended. Who is likely to find who, and successfully play smash the monkeys first? My money is on the GA, who has EVERY advantage except the spider drive.
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by Rincewind   » Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:03 pm

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cthia wrote:The MA has sleepers on Manticore. Sleepers on Sphinx? Sleepers on Beowulf? I wonder if they have sleepers on Haven?

What if the MA came by the existence and location of Bolthole, would they attack? Should they attack? What if their previous consideration of a lack of meat for the grinder is no longer a concern?

If they did attack and completely destroyed the system's infrastructure and any unfinished ships, where would that leave the GA?


Given the history of Haven, (& the existence of Jean Claude Nesbitt still serving as Chief of Security to their State Department) it is inevitable that there would have been Mesan Alignment sleeper agents. However, one unintended by-product of the Rob Pierre Coup & the purges that followed would have been to sweep away the vast majority of all the Legislaturalists... including the sleeper agents who had spent all those decades & centuries burrowing away to rise to the top of the ruling elites.

Does anyone else besides me find this concept deliciously amusing? Talk about being hoisted with your own petard.
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by Theemile   » Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:15 pm

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Rincewind wrote:
cthia wrote:The MA has sleepers on Manticore. Sleepers on Sphinx? Sleepers on Beowulf? I wonder if they have sleepers on Haven?

What if the MA came by the existence and location of Bolthole, would they attack? Should they attack? What if their previous consideration of a lack of meat for the grinder is no longer a concern?

If they did attack and completely destroyed the system's infrastructure and any unfinished ships, where would that leave the GA?


Given the history of Haven, (& the existence of Jean Claude Nesbitt still serving as Chief of Security to their State Department) it is inevitable that there would have been Mesan Alignment sleeper agents. However, one unintended by-product of the Rob Pierre Coup & the purges that followed would have been to sweep away the vast majority of all the Legislaturalists... including the sleeper agents who had spent all those decades & centuries burrowing away to rise to the top of the ruling elites.

Does anyone else besides me find this concept deliciously amusing? Talk about being hoisted with your own petard.


Ironically, the survivors of the Legislaturist purge in ~1905, would have tried to assume positions of influence in the new regime, only to be taken out of power in the 1916 fall of State Sec and the Committee of Public Security. I'm not saying they are all gone, but there have been 2 unexpected societal filters that would have swept many away or just aside.
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RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by Rincewind   » Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:01 pm

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Theemile wrote:Ironically, the survivors of the Legislaturist purge in ~1905, would have tried to assume positions of influence in the new regime, only to be taken out of power in the 1916 fall of State Sec and the Committee of Public Security. I'm not saying they are all gone, but there have been 2 unexpected societal filters that would have swept many away or just aside.


Thank you for reminding me of that. I had quite forgotten about the second purge when Eloise Pritchard restored the Republic; (although it was presumably a lot less bloody).
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by fallsfromtrees   » Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:52 am

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Rincewind wrote:
Theemile wrote:Ironically, the survivors of the Legislaturist purge in ~1905, would have tried to assume positions of influence in the new regime, only to be taken out of power in the 1916 fall of State Sec and the Committee of Public Security. I'm not saying they are all gone, but there have been 2 unexpected societal filters that would have swept many away or just aside.


Thank you for reminding me of that. I had quite forgotten about the second purge when Eloise Pritchard restored the Republic; (although it was presumably a lot less bloody).

There was a third purge as well after McQueen tried her coup, St Just purged the senior ranks of the military rather thoroughly. I suspect that the civilian side got hit as well.
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by cthia   » Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:30 am

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Why haven't we heard of any sleeper agents in the Anderman Empire? If there aren't any, does that imply that there are limits to the MAlign's influence as well as their obvious inability to foresee the future climate of naval powers?

I was always prepared for a war to begin between the IAN and the RMN, and when that fiasco with Hellbarde happened, I was like "Here we go!"


The moment may have passed, but I think the Alignment missed an opportunity. And that may have spelled disaster for the RMN. I wonder how the GA would have shaken out then.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by Theemile   » Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:47 am

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cthia wrote:Why haven't we heard of any sleeper agents in the Anderman Empire? If there aren't any, does that imply that there are limits to the MAlign's influence as well as their obvious inability to foresee the future climate of naval powers?

I was always prepared for a war to begin between the IAN and the RMN, and when that fiasco with Hellbarde happened, I was like "Here we go!"


The moment may have passed, but I think the Alignment missed an opportunity. And that may have spelled disaster for the RMN. I wonder how the GA would have shaken out then.


We have, in an inadvertant way. Someone gave Colonal Hofschute a shot of nanites to try to kill the crown prince. So there have to be agents in the empire.

Once some Treecats get to New Berlin and Potsdam, we may hear about more. I wonder if the Treecats will try to find a bond mate for the Emperor. I suspect they will do something similar to what they have done for the Manticore Kings and queens, where the mindglow of a future leader is "recorded" and dispersed for others to taste the mindglow. Those who enjoy the taste come to experience it themselves - and a bond is sometimes formed.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Should the MAN attack if they knew the location of Bolth
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:35 pm

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cthia wrote:Why haven't we heard of any sleeper agents in the Anderman Empire? If there aren't any, does that imply that there are limits to the MAlign's influence as well as their obvious inability to foresee the future climate of naval powers?
Theemile pointed out one possible time they've acted (though that didn't necessarily have to be a sleeper agent who provided the assassin nanos) but mostly I'd bet we haven't heard of sleepers withing the Adermandi because the total time the books have spent looking inside them probably adds up to maybe 3 chapters spread over 30 some odd books.
We've seen virtually nothing of them so it's hardly surprising we also haven't seen the probable sleeper agents.
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