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Economics (past, present, and predicted) in the Honorverse

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Re: Economics (past, present, and predicted) in the Honorver
Post by Theemile   » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:03 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
SouthernWolf wrote:Thanks for the replies, y'all.
snip

What about the economic standings raised in my second question in the original post?


I am not sure the measure you seek will be beneficial in any meaningful way. Sol's wealth is predicated on the economic friction surrounding the massive revenue flows from collecting League fees and taxes. Yes, Sol has industry, but its wealth is not driven by industry. After the League has been destroyed, Sol's economic might will be much smaller than the Old Kingdom.

A better measure is to use a system's population as a base measure of economic power and adjust for the base technology. I have seen posters equate the average core world as similar to the average Andermani world and perhaps slightly ahead of the average Havenite world. The SKM (Old Kingdom) is well ahead of all of them on a per capita basis.

Using that assumption, the SEM aggregate GS(s)Ps (Gross Systems' Product) will likely grow much more quickly than a comparably populated collection Verge worlds. In a few decades, the SEM will have a greater GS(s)P than a similar number of Core worlds. The Alliance members will be somewhere between the SEM and the old Core worlds on a per capita bases. Their populations will likely be smaller than Core worlds.

The exact numbers will be vague enough to allow RFC to write an interesting story.


David mentioned a couple of years ago that Manticore had surpassed Earth's GSP by 1920. If memory serves, it was by about 30%. Post OB, I'm not certain how that will continue.
******
RFC said "Six years from "What the heck is that?" to "I christen thee SLNS First Podnaught" would have been remarkable ... for the RMN. For the Solarian League, frankly, I doubt very much that it would be possible"
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Re: Economics (past, present, and predicted) in the Honorver
Post by SouthernWolf   » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:56 am

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Theemile wrote:
PeterZ wrote:
*snip*

A better measure is to use a system's population as a base measure of economic power and adjust for the base technology. I have seen posters equate the average core world as similar to the average Andermani world and perhaps slightly ahead of the average Havenite world. The SKM (Old Kingdom) is well ahead of all of them on a per capita basis.

Using that assumption, the SEM aggregate GS(s)Ps (Gross Systems' Product) will likely grow much more quickly than a comparably populated collection Verge worlds. In a few decades, the SEM will have a greater GS(s)P than a similar number of Core worlds. The Alliance members will be somewhere between the SEM and the old Core worlds on a per capita bases. Their populations will likely be smaller than Core worlds.

The exact numbers will be vague enough to allow RFC to write an interesting story.


David mentioned a couple of years ago that Manticore had surpassed Earth's GSP by 1920. If memory serves, it was by about 30%. Post OB, I'm not certain how that will continue.


Do you know if those figures are published somewhere we can access, Theemile? I'm just looking for something to give me an approximate progression over the series and starting points of the big players at the time of 2nd Manticore/Laccoon I and II. I understand RFC will do what he will and he needs some figures to remain confidential for artistic license and just for him to play with at will for his story, but having something similar to his figures would resolve a lot of my "WAGS" (Wild Assed Guesses) [per OBS] and sure up a lot of my inferences.

PeterZ, did he cover this already? I must have missed it somewhere in the threads.

Apologies if I'm reasking old questions or beating dead horses. I hope these aren't as bad as the "captured Sollie SD" theories, threads, and questions...
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Re: Economics (past, present, and predicted) in the Honorver
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:12 pm

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Southern Wolf,

He doesn't really cover these items explicitly as it tends to limit his ability to write the story. Much of the assumptions are based on the mandarins' conversations in the wake of Lacoon I & II. I recall that the average percentage of GSP devoted to imports and exports are between 10%-15% for the Solarian League worlds. If you then piece together how much of that traveled in RMMM bottoms and paid WHJ transit fees, one can deduce a solid baseline for just how big the average SL world GSP is as well as how big the SEM GSP is. Again, these are relative measures, but close enough to get an idea.

Even if my memory fails me and that Import/Export volume is lower, to about 5%-10% of the average GSP, it provides a solid range of the size of the SL economy and the average wealth for SL worlds.
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Re: Economics (past, present, and predicted) in the Honorver
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:21 am

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Hi PeterZ, Southern Wolf;

PeterZ and the others have some good points, but perhaps this can help because I suspect you'll add quite a bit to our future threads on the subject, which I look forward to.

In OBS, it might be implied the Sol system had something up to 10 times the population of the then SKM, ~3.415 billion from MtH, so with 70% of Sol's GDSP, the average SKM citizen theoretically averaged 7 times Sol's, quite a difference especially considering Sol is a wealthy Core world, apparently even heavily subsidized by the SL/mandarins.

While SoS pg 55 [HB] has Verrochio complaining how Sol alone has 3-4 times the SKM's population; he's showing his ignorance [as Anisimovna realizes], but Du Havel on page 61 of CoS [at least a year earlier] states that Sol has 5 times the SKM's population after including San Martin's 2 B, or 30+ billion.

While San Martin is still probably recuperating after the peep plundering, to lower the SKM's overall average, I suspect the ratio is still at least as high, if not even higher because we have the number of WHJ transits more than doubling [212%] in the 15 years to over a thousand per day, since the first war began, according to SoS page 106 [HB], with all the wealth that entails, before Lynx really gets up to speed.

Then we also have an economic reference in WoH, page 94 [PB] circa mid 1918, where High Ridge is thinking about New Kiev's wasteful social boondoggles, when the poorest SKM citizen had an effective income 4 times that of the average Grayson, and something between 7-8 times that of the average Havenite in the newly restored RoH.

While these last don't specify a ratio toward Sol or the SL in general, the other posts indicate the previous ratio is only climbing further.

Given the economic ruination about to fall upon the SL, that increased ratio isn't a surprise, but adding all the extra freighter traffic we expect through the wormhole junction as trade expands even further, the SEM's economic curve will probably become even steeper for a while.

Then once the war's over and the tax increases are ended, even more investment will be freed up, so no wonder that's RFC's forecast. 8-)

L


PeterZ wrote:Southern Wolf,

He doesn't really cover these items explicitly as it tends to limit his ability to write the story. Much of the assumptions are based on the mandarins' conversations in the wake of Lacoon I & II. I recall that the average percentage of GSP devoted to imports and exports are between 10%-15% for the Solarian League worlds. If you then piece together how much of that traveled in RMMM bottoms and paid WHJ transit fees, one can deduce a solid baseline for just how big the average SL world GSP is as well as how big the SEM GSP is. Again, these are relative measures, but close enough to get an idea.

Even if my memory fails me and that Import/Export volume is lower, to about 5%-10% of the average GSP, it provides a solid range of the size of the SL economy and the average wealth for SL worlds.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Economics (past, present, and predicted) in the Honorver
Post by ldwechsler   » Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:47 am

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Posts: 37
Joined: Sun May 28, 2017 12:15 pm

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ, Southern Wolf;

PeterZ and the others have some good points, but perhaps this can help because I suspect you'll add quite a bit to our future threads on the subject, which I look forward to.

In OBS, it might be implied the Sol system had something up to 10 times the population of the then SKM, ~3.415 billion from MtH, so with 70% of Sol's GDSP, the average SKM citizen theoretically averaged 7 times Sol's, quite a difference especially considering Sol is a wealthy Core world, apparently even heavily subsidized by the SL/mandarins.

While SoS pg 55 [HB] has Verrochio complaining how Sol alone has 3-4 times the SKM's population; he's showing his ignorance [as Anisimovna realizes], but Du Havel on page 61 of CoS [at least a year earlier] states that Sol has 5 times the SKM's population after including San Martin's 2 B, or 30+ billion.

While San Martin is still probably recuperating after the peep plundering, to lower the SKM's overall average, I suspect the ratio is still at least as high, if not even higher because we have the number of WHJ transits more than doubling [212%] in the 15 years to over a thousand per day, since the first war began, according to SoS page 106 [HB], with all the wealth that entails, before Lynx really gets up to speed.

Then we also have an economic reference in WoH, page 94 [PB] circa mid 1918, where High Ridge is thinking about New Kiev's wasteful social boondoggles, when the poorest SKM citizen had an effective income 4 times that of the average Grayson, and something between 7-8 times that of the average Havenite in the newly restored RoH.

While these last don't specify a ratio toward Sol or the SL in general, the other posts indicate the previous ratio is only climbing further.

Given the economic ruination about to fall upon the SL, that increased ratio isn't a surprise, but adding all the extra freighter traffic we expect through the wormhole junction as trade expands even further, the SEM's economic curve will probably become even steeper for a while.

Then once the war's over and the tax increases are ended, even more investment will be freed up, so no wonder that's RFC's forecast. 8-)

L


PeterZ wrote:Southern Wolf,

He doesn't really cover these items explicitly as it tends to limit his ability to write the story. Much of the assumptions are based on the mandarins' conversations in the wake of Lacoon I & II. I recall that the average percentage of GSP devoted to imports and exports are between 10%-15% for the Solarian League worlds. If you then piece together how much of that traveled in RMMM bottoms and paid WHJ transit fees, one can deduce a solid baseline for just how big the average SL world GSP is as well as how big the SEM GSP is. Again, these are relative measures, but close enough to get an idea.

Even if my memory fails me and that Import/Export volume is lower, to about 5%-10% of the average GSP, it provides a solid range of the size of the SL economy and the average wealth for SL worlds.
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