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After Lacoon II - how big is the Solarian League really?

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Re: After Lacoon II - how big is the Solarian League really?
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:30 pm

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The question would be more in line with "How big will the Solarian League be AFTER an effective peace agreement is reached between the remains of the SL and the then major players?"

What we have in the series is massively multi-stellar trading economy built on a series of discoveries that connect the systems (inhabited or not) and varioius politics entities (typically "Star Nations", Transtellars Corporations, etc).
1st is hyperdrive which vastly reduces the amount of time to bet between stars. 2nd is the discovery of and then the creation of the systems to be able to navigate wormholes which provides for essentilay instantaneous travel from various points.

The ENTIRE system sets of politics, trade, are based on these two things. Yeah, there is a lot of different things moving including genetic slaves, politics, business and it's competition and all of the actual physical goods and materials plus ideas and the travel or movement of individuals.

Lacoon II has stuck a rather large stick in the wheels of commerce and things are not going as per what used to be the developing (expanding) system over the last two hundred years. Even if you don't count the problems caused by the Alignment and the expansion or trade ambitions of hundreds of planitary governments and millions of individuals who want to make at least a better living through commerce, the former trade model has been slammed to a halt. OFS is going to lose it's grip. Transtellars are going to fail (along with millions of other businesse and for one reason or other millions of individuals are going to be broken in economic ruin even without the fighting that will be continuing.
Everybody is going to adapt and find new ways of providing what is nessisary to keep their economies functioning. Not funtioning at the Pre-Lacoon II level in any kind of near-term time frame, but funtioning at the same time as having to do more with less and being able to produce what they need (not what they want, what the need) either at home or in conjunction with such systems that remain withing feasable (time and costs effective) trading distance as both a market for any exports and a source of "things" they need.

The Harrington Doctrine envisions many much smaller star-nations forming eventualy out of the fragments of the SL and the systems in the Shell and Verge which have been, in a very large way, supressed as Protectorates of OFS or as clients/partners of OFS/Transtellars/local totalitarian governments as the situations have evolved over centures.
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Re: After Lacoon II - how big is the Solarian League really?
Post by SharkHunter   » Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:18 pm

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I think I would answer this by saying "how big is the Western trade bloc in terms of the Old Earth circa 2017" global economy. The answer is... really really big. 90% of the consumption of goods, no? even though they've foolishly traded away a lot of the carrying capacity.
As long as everybody gets along and the USN & British Navy, etc. are the big boys on the block [and the Russian Navy in check], likely the "trading bloc" continues for the foreseeable future.
Now then, back in the Honorverse, the trading block is the same, but all the best routes are held by the pigmy (Manticore) who has also rendered the gorilla navy irrelevant.
I'd guess that the Core Worlds are the future League; the shell and Verge become strongly tied mutual-defense treaty organizations like OSEAN, NATO, etc. Heck, the RF is such an organization... with the caveat that they want to take over the whole dang Honorverse, and presumably that is what is known as a Bad Thing.
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Re: After Lacoon II - how big is the Solarian League really?
Post by Bill Woods   » Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:27 pm

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kzt wrote:The SL is something like 90% of the total human population and closer to 99% of the wealthy planets. It's hard to replace that market.

It's like an airliner deciding to embargo NATO and the G20 and deciding instead to schedule 50 widebody flights a day to Yemen, North Korea and Somalia to make up for not flying to Paris, Rome, NYC, Moscow, Shanghai, Tokyo and London. Good luck with that.

If you step back, it's a little hard to understand why the Manticore Junction is such a big, big deal in the League's economy. Yes, it provides a shortcut from Beowulf to Joshua, and that's valuable to a lot of Core Worlds near one or the other. It also provides cheap access to a lot of worlds out in the boonies, and that's valuable to a lot of transstellar corps.

But still. Before the crisis, was there really a lot of shipping to and from worlds out beyond Basilisk or Matapan, or in the Andermani Empire?
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Re: After Lacoon II - how big is the Solarian League really?
Post by Castenea   » Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:06 pm

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Bill Woods wrote:If you step back, it's a little hard to understand why the Manticore Junction is such a big, big deal in the League's economy. Yes, it provides a shortcut from Beowulf to Joshua, and that's valuable to a lot of Core Worlds near one or the other. It also provides cheap access to a lot of worlds out in the boonies, and that's valuable to a lot of transstellar corps.

But still. Before the crisis, was there really a lot of shipping to and from worlds out beyond Basilisk or Matapan, or in the Andermani Empire?

Might be a little easier to understand if you consider that the central worlds of the Andermani Empire are at least as well off as shell worlds in the Solarian league (not as rich as the big core worlds, but not impoverished worlds out in the boonies either), and despite the disorder there, the Silesian Confed worlds may be richer than some of the SL systems.

While much of the verge are little more than hardscrabble bare subsistence places, and a large percentage of the protectorates are being exploited to make life little better than the poorer places on the verge for the average citizen, there are also places on the verge where the average citizen both wants and can afford to import items from the core. One of the complaints of people who travel to Earth and other core worlds is the way they are treated as hayseeds with no manners despite being from places like Manticore, Haven, Erewhon or Anderman. All of these are very different places, but treating them as if they were Nuncio or Grayson grates.
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Re: After Lacoon II - how big is the Solarian League really?
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:23 pm

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Bill Woods wrote:If you step back, it's a little hard to understand why the Manticore Junction is such a big, big deal in the League's economy. Yes, it provides a shortcut from Beowulf to Joshua, and that's valuable to a lot of Core Worlds near one or the other.


If you look at the map included in the Bu-nine analysis, it is easy to see that the MWHJ is the crossroads for nearly every shortcut via wormhole across two-thirds of the league. The MHWJ, by itself, doesn't provide direct access to anywhere except Beowulf inside the SL. Combined with Erewhon's WHJ and the Durandel-Asgerd WH Bridge, it cuts the travel time from the "western" third of the League to the "eastern" third of the League from months to days. With the many un-mapped junctions and bridges mentioned in passing, the "Wormhole Network" reduces travel times over direct routing by at least an order of magnitude, and the MHWJ is involved in two legs of any routing to the "northern" two-thirds of the League

Bill Woods wrote:But still. Before the crisis, was there really a lot of shipping to and from worlds out beyond Basilisk or Matapan, or in the Andermani Empire?


I doubt that there is a lot of direct trade beyond the WH Network's outer limits, but there is probably a thriving "warehouse and transfer" trade between League routes and "local" routes at every Terminus.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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