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Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War

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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Somtaaw   » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:53 am

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Duckk wrote:The UN and NATO aren't sovereign governments. The League, for all its warts, is.



I think I see some of where kzt is heading. Both the League and Beowulf are sovereign governments, but Beowulf isn't barred from extending it's own control or assets. If Beowulf officially "claimed" Manticore as Beowulfan territory, suddenly the League Navy is now obligated to protect Beowulfan newly acquired extended assets.

So if the Manticoran Ambassador to the League on Earth, has a treaty sitting in a locked (and probably trapped) drawer, showing the terms of Beowulf's acquisition of Manticore, and the tremendously lowered transit fees? I agree, the League would quite probably move to protect Beowulf/Manticore assets officially. Behind the scenes or afterwards giving Beowulf a whack for first involving the League in that, but than practically giving Beowulf a kiss for slashing those Junction fees.
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by noblehunter   » Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:04 am

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cthia wrote:
Relax wrote:Honestly a very bad write up. There were 2 reasons and ONLY 2 reason Manticore won.

1) Haven wanted a Short Victorious War and was not willing to go for a knockout blow to begin the conflict as the cost($$$) was too high.

2) Haven changed forms of government in the middle of a war.

Kudos, for being the first to tackle the topic!

I got my eyes on you Relax.

On the other hand, if Third Yeltsin had happened to a force big enough to take on Home Fleet, the Peeps would be in even worse shape afterward. It'd a better argument to avoid deep strikes for much of the war. Assuming Manticore could trap a force intended to be able to take on Home Fleet.
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by kzt   » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:48 am

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noblehunter wrote:On the other hand, if Third Yeltsin had happened to a force big enough to take on Home Fleet, the Peeps would be in even worse shape afterward. It'd a better argument to avoid deep strikes for much of the war. Assuming Manticore could trap a force intended to be able to take on Home Fleet.

It was all economy of force operations until after the revolution. The were unwilling to commit the kind of forces needed to crush Manticore, instead they had this elaborate plan involving drawing out RMN orces and destroying them in detail, which failed miserably in most cases. However it did draw out a good part of the RMN reserves from the home system. And the Peeps had enough in reserve to have a pretty massive superiority if they went all in.
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by robert132   » Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:38 pm

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Somtaaw wrote:
I think I see some of where kzt is heading. Both the League and Beowulf are sovereign governments, but Beowulf isn't barred from extending it's own control or assets. If Beowulf officially "claimed" Manticore as Beowulfan territory, suddenly the League Navy is now obligated to protect Beowulfan newly acquired extended assets.

So if the Manticoran Ambassador to the League on Earth, has a treaty sitting in a locked (and probably trapped) drawer, showing the terms of Beowulf's acquisition of Manticore, and the tremendously lowered transit fees? I agree, the League would quite probably move to protect Beowulf/Manticore assets officially. Behind the scenes or afterwards giving Beowulf a whack for first involving the League in that, but than practically giving Beowulf a kiss for slashing those Junction fees.


I wonder if the Peep Admiral would swallow his gum if, after crossing the Wall at Manticore his sensors noted a couple of BF Squadrons orbiting Manticore, or not even that ... (I shudder to write it) units of Frontier Fleet either calling at Manticore or passing through the system enroute somewhere else.

More likely though would be some units of the Beowulf Defense Forces "showing the Flag" in company with the erstwhile Manty "Home Fleet," everyone squawking Beowulf IDs.

Himself wouldn't do that but my mind tends to "go there," "what if ...".
****

Just my opinion of course and probably not worth the paper it's not written on.
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:23 pm

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kzt wrote:Basically Haven started a war without being willing to decisively commit to winning. They could have rolled over Manticore easily. Hell, their 300 BBs would have provided home fleet with a decent fight despite be obsolete. You send them in against Sphinx and keep the majority of the Haven fleet waiting for Home fleet (based at the junction) to commit.

They come after the BBs then you go after Manticore itself. If they don't go after the BBs 300 BBs will crack the defenses of Sphinx. It will be bloody, but that's a lot of firepower.

Ultimately it's virtually impossible for Haven to win a long term war, because the entire ruling class of Manticore will be shot by Haven. So the government of the SKM is just are not going to go there, they seek game changing opportunities that doesn't end with them and their kids getting shot. And that opportunity is Beowulf. Do you think that it would be hard to arrange a BF force to be at Beowulf on some sort of exercise when the union is announced, and would it be hard to get them and the Beowulf fleet to be at Manticore when the Peep fleet crosses the wall?

So unless the peeps are willing to go after Manticore before the SKM government realizes on a core level how hopeless the position is they never will be able to. And they were never willing to.

And ultimately the losses in this all in assault on Manticore would have been lower (though much more concentrated) than the grinding decade of war.

Manticore would still have surprised Haven with towed pods - but hopefully Haven would have brought enough forces to have absorbed the initial blow and still been able to smash through to Manticoran orbit.


Stripping the various Havenite systems of most of their naval forces might have led to some internal revolts - and possibly some painful pinprick raids, or even lost systems across the frontier.
But if the war ends with a decisive blow, and the home system is kept under control, Haven would then have time to pacify any internal dissident.

But you'd have to make plans to basically throw everything except a minimal home fleet directly at Manticore - ideally without giving them time to notice and concentrate 100% of their forces in the Manticoran system.

Now if Haven misjudged and held back a little too much the surprise of the towed pods could have tipped the balance in Manticore's favor. And even with enough forces you need a very resolute commanders to keep wading in after taking shocking losses in the initial missile salvo.
Imagine if another Kurita was in command and broke off the all-or-nothing attack after facing far heavier than expected defense?
The rest of the war would likely go poorly for Haven...


Back to the write-up I noticed that the diplomatic side failed to touch on the arms / military tech embargo that Manticore convinced / forced the League to impose against both combatants. That was a small but significant diplomatic coupe on Manticore's behalf (though well covered in the books)
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Relax   » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:02 pm

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Towed pods? Say what?

Hero: Wonder woman who came up with the idea was twiddling her thumbs at Hancock station.

Hancock battle; wouldn't happen. Go straight at Manticore. Ditch everything else. Would have rolled Manticore. Twice as many SD's. A few less DN's. With an extra 300+++ BB's to smash whatever they wish. Would have Obliterated Manticore home system. Especially since "officially" they weren't at war.

This is like saying Hitler had an Atomic bomb and the means to deliver it against either London or Moscow but chose not to use it... To say that Haven wasn't used to attacking straight at the capital system, is also rather absurd as that is EXACTLY, precisely what the PRH had been doing for the last hundred years while expanding.

And yes, I realize that DW's OOB 1905 has problems as he has the PRH with more DD's, CL's than Manticore even though Manticore has many times more merchant marine and oddball stations for said merchant marine to protect than Haven does. Yes, DW didn't have his universe completely fleshed out back then, but we can only use what has been provided to base our analysis on.
_________
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Theemile   » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:56 pm

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Relax wrote:Towed pods? Say what?

Hero: Wonder woman who came up with the idea was twiddling her thumbs at Hancock station.

Hancock battle; wouldn't happen. Go straight at Manticore. Ditch everything else. Would have rolled Manticore. Twice as many SD's. A few less DN's. With an extra 300+++ BB's to smash whatever they wish. Would have Obliterated Manticore home system. Especially since "officially" they weren't at war.

This is like saying Hitler had an Atomic bomb and the means to deliver it against either London or Moscow but chose not to use it... To say that Haven wasn't used to attacking straight at the capital system, is also rather absurd as that is EXACTLY, precisely what the PRH had been doing for the last hundred years while expanding.

And yes, I realize that DW's OOB 1905 has problems as he has the PRH with more DD's, CL's than Manticore even though Manticore has many times more merchant marine and oddball stations for said merchant marine to protect than Haven does. Yes, DW didn't have his universe completely fleshed out back then, but we can only use what has been provided to base our analysis on.


Read again, Relax. Manticore had towed pods in 1905, but only Wallers had the fire control updates to use them. HH's big idea at Hancock was for BCs to use them. So they would have been available at Manticore in 1905, but only the wallers (and maybe forts) would have had them.

So could gen 1 pods , a small homefleet, a handful of forts and whatever planetary defenses there were stand off 50-80% of the PRN wall? Even with the pods and Manticore's 1.5 to 2x salvo rate, I doubt Manticore could have held off the PRN in a direct planetary assault. If the PRN went against the junction though, Manticore wins the war...
******
RFC said "Six years from "What the heck is that?" to "I christen thee SLNS First Podnaught" would have been remarkable ... for the RMN. For the Solarian League, frankly, I doubt very much that it would be possible"
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Relax   » Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:23 pm

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The ol' memory was mixing the mine layers with the parasitic pods in SVW. :oops:

Rethink time: Crudely speaking

If Hancock had parasite pods with capital grade missiles, surely the home fleet did as well. Still 300 spare BB's...

RHN 400 SD, 50DN and 300BB all firing capital grade missiles? Have element of surprise who could all go in for repair first... hrmm

Against RMN 200SD 150DN... Yea yea subtract those in for repair ~ 10%-20% = -35 --> -70 hulls and those on foreign station? Would RMN know something was up in time to fully consolidate at home? War had not been "declared" though since OBS and HotQ it effectively was on. So, how many on foreign station? Has to be around 50 capital ships or so. Lets call it 30 and 20 get back home. So upwards of -100 ships. Maybe they see RHN mass repairing and decide to mass repair themselves or do they quickly repair everyone and kick them all out of their slips? A low as -50.

So, 750RHN capital ships firing missiles against 250-->300 RMN capital ships firing capital missiles with an initial parasite pod equal to an SD or two for a single salvo. So, in missile duel it would effectively be 750RHN:900RMN since BB's are less or so. Very crude numbers and lots of old classes of ships in there so..... Hand wave it in approximation.

So, 250 RHN ships die dropping them to 500 while the RMN goes from 250 ships to 150 ships or so... Yea, RMN still gets whipped. 500:150

Of course how realistic is it that the RHN would send 100% of their ships? Well, if I was planning the op, I would. The RMN aren't also planning a surprise attack on the Haven system. There was no formal declaration of war and this is an all or nothing gamble anyways to grab the wormhole and its $$$ stream, so, go for the pot of gold or don't go at all.
_________
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Theemile   » Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:49 am

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Relax wrote:The ol' memory was mixing the mine layers with the parasitic pods in SVW. :oops:

Rethink time: Crudely speaking

If Hancock had parasite pods with capital grade missiles, surely the home fleet did as well. Still 300 spare BB's...

RHN 400 SD, 50DN and 300BB all firing capital grade missiles? Have element of surprise who could all go in for repair first... hrmm

Against RMN 200SD 150DN... Yea yea subtract those in for repair ~ 10%-20% = -35 --> -70 hulls and those on foreign station? Would RMN know something was up in time to fully consolidate at home? War had not been "declared" though since OBS and HotQ it effectively was on. So, how many on foreign station? Has to be around 50 capital ships or so. Lets call it 30 and 20 get back home. So upwards of -100 ships. Maybe they see RHN mass repairing and decide to mass repair themselves or do they quickly repair everyone and kick them all out of their slips? A low as -50.

So, 750RHN capital ships firing missiles against 250-->300 RMN capital ships firing capital missiles with an initial parasite pod equal to an SD or two for a single salvo. So, in missile duel it would effectively be 750RHN:900RMN since BB's are less or so. Very crude numbers and lots of old classes of ships in there so..... Hand wave it in approximation.

So, 250 RHN ships die dropping them to 500 while the RMN goes from 250 ships to 150 ships or so... Yea, RMN still gets whipped. 500:150

Of course how realistic is it that the RHN would send 100% of their ships? Well, if I was planning the op, I would. The RMN aren't also planning a surprise attack on the Haven system. There was no formal declaration of war and this is an all or nothing gamble anyways to grab the wormhole and its $$$ stream, so, go for the pot of gold or don't go at all.


And we know Haven still isn't naked to attack, even without the wallers. At least 2 large forts were in Haven orbit during a "Wiff of Grapshot". Chances are at least 2 more werein orbit without firing angles, and it is possible several others were paralyzed by inaction due to the Chaos.

But, calling it just 4 large forts, would require at least 8-12 SDs to have combat parity against them, so 24 wold be requiredtooverwhelm them with few losses. Another squadron may be needed to overwhelm the rest of the fixed defenses, and any lighter units left. So a minimum strike against an "undefended" Haven with no homefleet would probably require at least 4 SD squadrons and several BC/CA squadrons. U fortunately, this is the minimum defenses we could expect, and the assult force to take Haven would have to scale accordingly. In adition, they would have to leave Mantucore ~ 2 months in advance to make the strike, and would have no idea of what hardware was actually left to defend the system- even a couple squadrons of BBs would throw the mechanics off enough to make even a secessful strike suicidial. Overall, Not a small undertaking taken lighty.
******
RFC said "Six years from "What the heck is that?" to "I christen thee SLNS First Podnaught" would have been remarkable ... for the RMN. For the Solarian League, frankly, I doubt very much that it would be possible"
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:27 am

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Relax wrote:against 250-->300 RMN capital ships firing capital missiles with an initial parasite pod equal to an SD or two for a single salvo.
Oh a bit more than that, even Honor's Nike could tow 7 pods (70 capital missiles)

That squadron of BCs, with a field lashup fire control threw 900 capital missiles in the RHN DN's face at Hancock; more than the broadsides of 2 divisions of SDs! They (admittedly with an ideal launch setup) killed 1 DN and crippled another.

An SD should be able to tow twice as many pods at HMS Nike, so instead of a broadside of 35 - 37 missiles each would then launch over 170!

That should let an 8 ship squadron kill or cripple at least 2 opposing SDs before running out of pods. Especially if this is the first combat and Haven hasn't had a chance to adjust for the effectiveness of the RMN ECM.


If Haven throws 750 capital ships at Manticore they should still win (unless dumb enough to try to smash the Junction defenses before proceeding to Manticore); but I bet only a third of them survive.

I make an order of magnitude mental error last night saying 1400 instead of 140; the post has been revised to correct
Last edited by Jonathan_S on Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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