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Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War

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Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Duckk   » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:01 pm

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A BuNine article is up on Baen's site.

http://www.baen.com/honorverse_analytics
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Shields at 50%, taunting at 100%! - Tom Pope
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by cthia   » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:46 pm

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Salivating!

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by JohnRoth   » Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:04 pm

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Interesting. Looked at the map. So that's where Visigoth is at. Ok. Asgerd is WHERE?
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Theemile   » Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:15 am

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"House of Lies" is mentioned as if it is ready for publication or close. Any details on then it should drop?
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RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just about as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by kzt   » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:13 am

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Basically Haven started a war without being willing to decisively commit to winning. They could have rolled over Manticore easily. Hell, their 300 BBs would have provided home fleet with a decent fight despite be obsolete. You send them in against Sphinx and keep the majority of the Haven fleet waiting for Home fleet (based at the junction) to commit.

They come after the BBs then you go after Manticore itself. If they don't go after the BBs 300 BBs will crack the defenses of Sphinx. It will be bloody, but that's a lot of firepower.

Ultimately it's virtually impossible for Haven to win a long term war, because the entire ruling class of Manticore will be shot by Haven. So the government of the SKM is just are not going to go there, they seek game changing opportunities that doesn't end with them and their kids getting shot. And that opportunity is Beowulf. Do you think that it would be hard to arrange a BF force to be at Beowulf on some sort of exercise when the union is announced, and would it be hard to get them and the Beowulf fleet to be at Manticore when the Peep fleet crosses the wall?

So unless the peeps are willing to go after Manticore before the SKM government realizes on a core level how hopeless the position is they never will be able to. And they were never willing to.
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Theemile   » Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:14 pm

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kzt wrote:Basically Haven started a war without being willing to decisively commit to winning. They could have rolled over Manticore easily. Hell, their 300 BBs would have provided home fleet with a decent fight despite be obsolete. You send them in against Sphinx and keep the majority of the Haven fleet waiting for Home fleet (based at the junction) to commit.

They come after the BBs then you go after Manticore itself. If they don't go after the BBs 300 BBs will crack the defenses of Sphinx. It will be bloody, but that's a lot of firepower.

Ultimately it's virtually impossible for Haven to win a long term war, because the entire ruling class of Manticore will be shot by Haven. So the government of the SKM is just are not going to go there, they seek game changing opportunities that doesn't end with them and their kids getting shot. And that opportunity is Beowulf. Do you think that it would be hard to arrange a BF force to be at Beowulf on some sort of exercise when the union is announced, and would it be hard to get them and the Beowulf fleet to be at Manticore when the Peep fleet crosses the wall?

So unless the peeps are willing to go after Manticore before the SKM government realizes on a core level how hopeless the position is they never will be able to. And they were never willing to.


While that was never spoken of in the books, I don't doubt that the senario you laid out is definitely in a little red metal case that says "in case of emergency." It wouldn't suprise me if ambassador Webster already had a SL membership petition signed by Cromarty and Queen Elizabeth in a locked drawer just in case the the Peeps attacked Manticore before the homeworlds could react. In which case, only a counterattack from the SLN could push Haven out and save the remaining Manticoran leadership.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just about as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by kzt   » Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:28 pm

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They don't join the SL itself, they join Beowulf. Beowulf is already a SL member. Hence there is a LOT less paperwork. Don't get me wrong, this would likely require a rather significant change in how the SKM is governed, but the change to a form of government acceptable to Beowulf isn't accompanied by lots of pulsar fire.

"The League can actually be thought of as a sort of vast association of smaller political units. Many of those smaller units are multi-system in nature: three or four or a dozen systems united by common astrography, political concerns, economic ties, etc. Others--like Old Earth herself, Beowulf, and many of the other oldest "core worlds" lying within a couple of hundred light-years of Sol--are single-system political entities whose individual power make them forces to be reckoned with."
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Duckk   » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:05 pm

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Beowulf has no more power to invite the Star Kingdom into the League than Florida has in inviting Puerto Rico into the United States. Those multi system associations are members of an extant power block that is already incorporated, much like the northeastern New England states share a commonality of interest.

And if Beowulf decides to unilaterally extend an associated power status that does not confer League member status, then the League has no reason to honor any requests for assistance. You can bet the Assembly would adopt a "you made this mess, you clean it up" position. Erewhon specifically ditched the League, despite having an actual treaty, because they were convinced the League would not help them when the Peeps came knocking. Manticore would have even less cover than that.
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by kzt   » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:44 pm

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I suspect there is no controlling legal authority or precedent for that position. Does the UN or NATO get to vote on whether the US can offer statehood to Guam? So after you get done fighting it out in court in a decade or two you'll know the answer. But in the meantime there are several hundred SL warships in orbit around Manticore on shore leave, and all 20 of the biggest SL corps are working on opening offices there and negotiating deals based on the newer reduced transit rates.

So good luck.
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Re: Honorverse Analytics: Why Manticore Won the War
Post by Duckk   » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:12 pm

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The UN and NATO aren't sovereign governments. The League, for all its warts, is.
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Shields at 50%, taunting at 100%! - Tom Pope
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