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_Shadow of Victory_ Comments

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_Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by Robert_A_Woodward   » Sun Dec 11, 2016 3:27 am

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Note: This a abridged version of a post of mine in the Snerkers Only group on Baen's Bar. That post included a summary of each of the 77 chapters plus epilogue which is not present here.

Comments:

1) The “Seduction” of Chotěboř

Several decades back, Chotěboř had a very serious problem with an quasi-insect pest. About the time they found a solution, a raider squadron had hit the planet and stripped away their entire orbital industrial plant leaving the government no choice but beg help from the OFS. Which promptly turned them over to a pair of transtellars who gained control the whole economy. All of this makes me wonder just how spontaneous was that bug mutation that caused a nuisance to become a serious disease vector. I also wonder if that raider was a Frontier Fleet front (that part did sound a bit like “Case Buccaneer” (see chapter 15 of _Mission of Honor_).

2) Aivar’s Audience with Elizabeth

This didn’t happen in _Storm from the Shadows_ which is why Baroness Medusa had the duty (and privilege) of presenting him with the PMV and also knighting him. But in this rewrite, Terekhov has that audience, so what in-world reason would cause Elizabeth Winton do neither?

3) Firebrand on Operation Janus Strategy

He was thinking that Janus was ignoring chances to anger the Solarian League. Not being very far inside the Onion, he was unaware that blackening Manticore’s reputation was of utmost importance, since otherwise it would be a rival to the the Renaissance Factor when the much of the League dissolves into chaos. There were also the other operations that the Alignment had underway that were intended to aggravate League/Manticore relations.

4) Damien appears to be in two different places

In _Storm from the Shadows_, Chapter 40, Damen was on Myers. That action appears to take place somewhere between Chapter 19 (Damien is at Włocławek) and chapter 23 (Damien is at Mesa). There doesn’t appear to be the time, even with the streak drive, for him to make a side trip to Meyers.

5) Damien really likes being Firebrand.

The alias he used for his OWMF cover meant “Firebrand” “Torch/Firebrand” and the name he gave “John Brown” in chapter 25 (Ardagai Dabilenaren), means “kindling” & “firebrand” in Basque. Also, he used “Eldbrand” (Firebrand in Swedish) when talking to the Cripple Mountain Movement. This might be just a bit too cute (giving his ship a name that meant “Firebrand” was OK, since that was not on any registration records). He must have done a library search for “Firebrand” in many languages.

6) The Spider has been detected.

Well, it was just a brief glimpse, but the RMN should now what to look for.

7) Time problems

Chapters 38 should be set in March 1922 PD and Chapter 39 should be set in April 1922 PD, which will make it consistent with _Mission of Honor_ and _Shadows of Freedom_.

8) And then there were 11

In chapter 52, Ginger reflects that she will shortly have 45% of the Hexapuma survivors at her dinner table (which works out to be 5 out of 11). I can identify 10 (Ginger Lewis, Paulo d’Arezzo, and Aubrey Wanderman on the “Charles Ward”, Naomi Kaplan, Abigail Hearns, and Mateo Gutierrez on the “Tristram”, Aivars Terekhov, Helen Zilwicki, and Joanna Agnelli on the “Quentin St. James”, and Aikawa Kagiyama). So who is the eleventh? Leopold Stottmeister (as well as a platoon of Marines) was left on Kornati in the aftermath of chapter 45 of _Shadow of Saganami_. Either Ginger is only counting those who made the trip to Monica or they rejoined the ship’s company at some point. There is no mention of Leopold in subsequent titles.

9) Manticore and Haven Fleet Naming Convention

I have been trying to use names for the RMN fleets and numbers for the RHN fleets (e.g., Tenth and 2nd).

10) The Revolutionary Indiana Graham

In chapter 64, Damien believes that Indiana would make a great covert operator, if it wasn’t for his principles. I think he is one (just like Victor Cachat); after all, Indiana mouse trapped Damien, slick as whistle.

11) Paulo d’Arezzo is in two different places

In chapter 66, he is on Montana. In chapter 71, he is on the bridge of the “Charles Ward”, which should have left with the rest of Tremaine’s taskforce in chapter 53.

12) Four for Four

In chapter 53, 4 taskforces were sent out. Each one encountered one of the 6 revolutionary movements being tracked in _Shadow of Victory_ (Loomis’s was destroyed early, and Terekhov rescued Mobius’s). The odds against this are high, even if they were each checking several systems.

13) Technology Supremacy Syndrome

The encounters of the RMN with the Solarian League Navy has fallen prey to do this. Nothing a SLN task force tries will work. It is just shooting fish in a barrel.

14) RMN LACs appear to have eaten their spinach

In chapter 72, it is revealed that 2 LACs had each been towing a cargo module, each of which should have the mass of a heavy cruiser. Based on the mass ratios, I would guess that their maximum acceleration would be 50gs or less, but that makes it impossible for them to rendezvous with Tremaine’s flotilla (both location and velocity - I am seeing a velocity difference of in excess of .1c if I try to match the location). Only an acceleration essentially the same as Tremaine’s will allow the rendezvous, based on the description of his maneuvers in chapter 71 and chapter 72.

15) Siminetti Twice Over

There is a General Siminetti on Chotěboř (where the Czech population is only a third of the population); he commands the Public Safety Force (i.e., goons). In addition, there is an Admiral Siminetti who is a senior officer of the Mesa Space Navy (and is outside the onion).

16) The All-Highest is dead, long live the All-Highest

I expect Benjamin Detweiler to be the new head of the Alignment. BTW, I have been calling Albrecht Detweiler the Mesa All-Highest since his first appearance in chapter 2 of _At All Costs_.

17) Operation Houdini’s Incomplete Success

Yes, it ran out of time, but it didn’t start soon enough either. They should have started when Oyster Bay was activated (i.e., a year earlier). That action was the start of the end game for their half-millennium long conspiracy which meant that Mesa wasn’t needed anymore. They would still have to reschedule the evacuations in June 1922PD and the reschedule might still need Janice Marinescu’s Final Flourish (i.e., the hour of the nukes), but with fewer people left to lift in June, everybody would be gone before 2nd and Tenth Fleets arrived.

Questions:

1) Back in chapter 1, did Firebrand’s rescuer arrange for the assassination attempt in the first place?

I wouldn’t put it pass the Alignment to do so. However, that means that they had his boss killed (that means that they had hired the kill teams before trying to recruit both of them).

2) Did the Alignment Install a death switch in Damien?

They told him that they hadn’t finished the medical enhancement (which might have included the death switch). On the other hand, Albrecht and Collin Detweiler weren’t worried about him and certainly believed that the switch had been installed (note that Rufino Chernyshev was Damien’s escort and would have known if it hadn’t been installed). So I think it was there, which means the clock was ticking at the end of chapter 64.

3) Did Ginger’s Birthday Present Survive?

Chapter 36 suggest that it had already been shipped from Manticore. The timing would not allow it to arrive into Gryphon orbit before Weyland’s evacuation drill; however, there is a chance that the transport ship had not left Hephaestus before the attack.

4) Why wasn’t the evacuation of Weyland mentioned in the more complete report in Chapter 39?

I can see why Manticore government would like the evacuation to be top secret (however, it had to have been the talk of Gryphon immediately before the attack, so the information should leak like crazy).

5) What about the rest of Janus?

Back in chapter 31, a Gendarmie Intelligence analyst reported that there was possible support for insurgent movements in at least a dozen systems. In _Shadow of Victory_, we see only 6 (plus a mention of one near the Maya Sector) which means that there are at least 5 more, assuming the 6 were all included of the dozen referred to back in chapter 31 (which I doubt, see the next question). It doesn’t take that many Janus ops going by the Alignment script to become a Manticore public relations disaster, which means that there should be several time-bombs ticking away.

6) How many of the 6 insurgencies in _SoV_ were included in the dozen mentioned in chapter 31?

I am not certain if any were. Włocławek was outside the protectorates, which means that it might not even been covered by the analyst. Chotěboř had no outside support (there was an organized, if quiet, insurgency), though I suppose that the diverted money that bought weapons in the black market could look like outside support. Cherubim’s insurgency appears to have been quiet, it was the contact with the arms black market that attracted the Alignment’s attention. Loomis had a public political opposition and lots of unhappiness, but was there any evidence people had firepower they shouldn’t? Mobius’s, IMHO, was the one most likely to be noticed on Earth, since it was very well organized and not very quiet. Swallow had those angry mountaineers (angry for purely local reasons), but again, was there any evidence they had firepower they shouldn’t? Furthermore, the initial report from the analyst was in chapter 10 which was about when Damien approached Loomis, the first of the 5 that he approached (and before any arms shipments).

7) Will Rufino Chernyshev suffer a fatal accident?

The result would be that only the Detweilers would know that the Alignment murdered over 100 thousand people (including Alignment security personnel) to hide the disappearance of several thousand people (I am not counting Albrecht’s last action). But it probably wouldn’t be necessary, since he won’t be leaving Darius (except under controlled circumstances).

8) Why was Mesa’s Lagrange One station nuked?

That one bothers me. Was one of the evacuation ships docked there for some reason and it took out the station? Was part of the station completely isolated from the rest and it was an evacuation point? I have trouble believing that. For that matter, were all the evacuation points slated for destruction when the last evacuation ship jumped into hyper? Albrecht’s island certainly would had been, since nothing was supposed to be there.
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by kzt   » Sun Dec 11, 2016 1:20 pm

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Robert_A_Woodward wrote:Lots of stuff

Sorry, on an iPad.
Anyhow, compare the comments on spotting missiles running ballistically in AAC. Essentially, the missile target know they are coming, but all their details are vague. Given the very limited capability of the seekers on MDMs, exactly how are they going to find them with the required degree of accuracy given that they are closing at a very decent fraction of light speed? Not to mention the wedge size issue.

The scene with the graser torps was very dumb. The graser torps are under power and control, they can and should have trivially detected and evaded the freighter, as they had places to be and people to kill. Having something like 1/4 of the main attack run into a freighter wedge seems absurd.
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by saber964   » Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:00 pm

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To answer your question about #2 is it takes time to do a investigation and wasn't quite finished yet but also doing it in the TQ was so he could be honored close to the people he likely saved from OFS.
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by kzt   » Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:01 am

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Robert_A_Woodward wrote:4) Why wasn’t the evacuation of Weyland mentioned in the more complete report in Chapter 39?

I can see why Manticore government would like the evacuation to be top secret (however, it had to have been the talk of Gryphon immediately before the attack, so the information should leak like crazy).

To link this the to Battle of Manticore thread, you'd think that having a huge hostile force cross the wall, crush your only defending fleet and drive right towards a huge civilian/military manufacturing and residential complex would cause anyone who isn't totally insane to order an emergency evacuation of at least the most immediately threatened complex. But apparently, judging from the discussion about Weyland, they never evacuated. It apparently never crossed anybody's mind that this might be a good idea. I guess they had been read into the plot and knew that the RHN wasn't going to casually crush 40% of the RHN's manufacturing capability and kill all the people still on it.
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by Weird Harold   » Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:34 am

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kzt wrote:To link this the to Battle of Manticore thread, you'd think that having a huge hostile force cross the wall, crush your only defending fleet and drive right towards a huge civilian/military manufacturing and residential complex would cause anyone who isn't totally insane to order an emergency evacuation of at least the most immediately threatened complex. But apparently, judging from the discussion about Weyland, they never evacuated. It apparently never crossed anybody's mind that this might be a good idea. I guess they had been read into the plot and knew that the RHN wasn't going to casually crush 40% of the RHN's manufacturing capability and kill all the people still on it.


Weyland orbited Gryphon in the Manticore B system. It was never threatened since the Havenite attacked Sphinx and Manticore in Manticore A orbit.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by kzt   » Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:51 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:Weyland orbited Gryphon in the Manticore B system. It was never threatened since the Havenite attacked Sphinx and Manticore in Manticore A orbit.

They are completely incredulous that anyone would ever order an evacuation. If they had evacuated some or all of the platforms in Manticore A during the RHN attack not very long ago would that be a sensible statement to make and wouldn't it be laughed down if someone made it? Like suggesting, post Huricane Katrina, that you would have to be insane to suggest possibly evacuate an entire city due to a storm. So no, they obviously didn't consider that sufficient cause to evacuate the Sphinx orbital infrastructure.
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by Somtaaw   » Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:38 pm

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for the Firebrand thing, yes he seems unncessarily attached to the moniker, but given how widespread OFS has to operate, it could be something of a quick and dirty way to track which agents are responsible for which actions (for promotion reasons). The more operations tied to "well someone named X instigated us into fighting", the more likely Agent X gets his promotion.

Since nobody except OFS (and the poor freedom fighters who just got dropped by Gendarms) should ever know agent names, using the same name constantly becomes a way to get their promotions without truly endangering the agent.

Damien Harahap spent many years working for the OFS as one of thse agent provocateurs, so he may have spent years under that particular name (for promotion and internal reasons) and is a habit so ingrained he hasn't actually thought how vulnerable it truly is after working for OFS so long.


Just a wild thought on the subject, given his name attachment.
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by kzt   » Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:12 pm

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David has commented here that it is deliberate by him and it's there to make the whole chain of events easier to compare after the disasters, when people are trying to figure out who did what to blame Manticore.

Which to me seems dumb, as he used the same name when he was working for OFS, but what the heck, it's a novel.
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by WeirdlyWired   » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:11 am

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kzt wrote:David has commented here that it is deliberate by him and it's there to make the whole chain of events easier to compare after the disasters, when people are trying to figure out who did what to blame Manticore.

Which to me seems dumb, as he used the same name when he was working for OFS, but what the heck, it's a novel.


And for that I am thankful. Trying to keep track of all the names of one single character in Lord of the Rings drove me nertz.
Helas,chou, Je m'en fache.
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Re: _Shadow of Victory_ Comments
Post by WeirdlyWired   » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:15 am

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The Harahap killer nanites thing is vague, perhaps intentionally. All I read was didn't have time and should have.
Helas,chou, Je m'en fache.
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