Battle of Manticore

MuonNeutrino wrote:
And which also consists of nowhere near enough SD(P) to do the job. Remember, the 350 SD(P) involved made up about 75% of haven's currently active modern wall. I submit that, regardless of anything else, it is completely unreasonable to imagine haven packing 75% of their wall into capital fleet.

IF you read the book, the statement is that 336 SD(P)'s represent a little more than 80% of the total Allied wall...

"Basically, Beatrice is a direct attack on the Manticorean home system," Theisman told her. "There's not much finesse to it. We'll take forty-two battle squadrons-three hundred and thirty-six SD(P)s; equal to eighty-plus percent of their entire modern wall of battle, including the Andies, according to NavInt's current estimate..."

Chapter 54 At all Costs location 11232 on my kindle.


Whereas in chapter 7 of At All costs the discussion between the Queen and her advisors it was stated that they could expect to have 400 SD(P)s between 11-18 months after that discussion which was in 1919. So by the time of the BoM 1921 they would have had ~400 SD(P)'s in service minus losses... Say about 20 SD(P)'s in the time period. So if Manticore Alliance stood at ~380 SD(P)'s in 1921 336 SD(P)'s would represent about 88% of their total fleet. So if 336 SD(P)'s represent 80+% of the Havenite Fleet then the two sides are relatevly equal numerically while technological edge gives Manticore the advantage. Therefore there was no way that 336 SD(P)'s represent anything close to 80% of the Havenite Navy.

MuonNeutrino wrote:Manticore's efforts in that regard were most likely less productive than haven's due to the obvious difference in accessibility, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't know *anything*. And they don't need to be able to give the sort of detailed breakdown the havenites had on the manty home fleet to know that it *didn't* include the 400ish SD(P) that they likely considered necessary to successfully attack the manticore system. (Again, noting that they didn't know about the donkey and therefore would have been overestimating the force levels haven would need. As the battle shows, 250 SD(P) wouldn't have been enough even *with* the donkey, without it you would likely have had to bundle Chin's 5th fleet in right along Tourville's 2nd and then *still* brought another fleet to deal with 3rd.)

They had by my estimates ~250 SD(P)s in Capital Fleet, 200 SD(P)s in covering forces and 100-200 deployed as pickets in front systems so split the difference and call it 150 SD(P)s.

So they had 1 Fleet of ~ 250 SD(P)s, 4 fleets ~50 SD(P)s each and 150 SD(P)s in squadron and division.

So sending Capital Fleet and 2 of the 4 fleets wouldn't take that much time. Recall both other covering fleets to Haven and all units in workup to bolster the defences... by the time anyone can get to Haven, see the fleet is gone double check and get back to Manticore the battle would be over. Within a month and a half to two months if they wanted to take some serious risks they could have formed 450-500 SD(P)s while still leaving Haven with 100 SD(P) capital fleet plus whatever is working up and fixed defences. By the time Manticore becomes aware of the opening it would be plugged up and they would be to worried about it to do much.


Do you think that 114-164 fresh SD(P)s would have made a difference? Especially if kept in reserve to come behind 8th Fleet if it should arrive for the fight? Or the fleet had attacked the Junction before the Home system? Take out the Junction Forts, once you beat the Junction Defences you can station some SD's to kill anyone who wants to come through so you only need to deal with Home Fleet.

munroburton wrote:Because Manticore didn't know or believe Theisman could have pre-deployed his assets in anticipation of such an enormous operation, they probably viewed as more likely the possibility of a desperation strike hitting Trevor's Star.

Like I said before, they also didn't know or believe that McQueen would have the freedom to fight the war her way and it didn't work out too well... for a group of people that are supposed to be smart they sure keep making the same stupid mistakes.

This would have bought Haven a little time and created a problem for Manticore if it lost Third Fleet and Trevor's Star, with Eighth "safely" in the Manticore system.

Not much of a problem. Taking Trevor's Star and destroying 3rd Fleet would have stung but would not have prolonged the war by much.

Even worse if Haven's hypothetical strike at Trevor's Star was prepared and capable of dealing with the Eighth Fleet they'd encountered at Lovat - which then consisted of 16 or 18 Apollo-capable SD(P)s. So when the extra 20 Apollo-capable wallers from the Andermani finally got ready and reported for duty, they did send them where they expected an attack, if one was coming.

Losing Trevor's Star means a serious but temporary setback for the alliance, losing the Manticore Home System means a devastating defeat that has a good chance to cause the loss of the war.

In the absence of any firm information to the contrary, they just guessed wrong. And I find it hard to fault them too much for that - we as readers are privy to far more accurate and essential information than either side's intelligence services were.

My argument is not based on information that would not be available to them, they knew there was a large concentration of ships in Capital Fleet, and they knew there was a number of covering forces for threatened systems because they destroyed one and their scouting showed them that it in fact was not the only one present.

And this doesn't even account for concentration of ships at the front.

The best data we have is this chart:

http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/si ... gton/106/0

Jonathan_S wrote:
Theisman had (again IIRC) way more SD(P)s that Manticore thought. He also took the initiative to strip them away from almost every system Manticore might raid in order to concentrate them all near the frontier. While a few of the SD(P) were concentrated in trap forces, like the one Honor blew away with Apollo, most of them were put where they'd have no chance to protect Havenite systems from attack. Purely so they'd be concentrated and ready on the (then unlikely seeming) offchance he could get permission to radically change the way they fought the war and go for an all or nothing attack on the Manticoran home system.


Yeah, that's a fairly unlikely seeming scenario. That Theisman would have contingency plans, even very well detailed ones, for an attack on Manticore is perfectly believable. That he'd reduce defenses on almost all Haven's system in order to pre-deploy his forces for one - before there was an apparent need and for before he had permission to launch one, is much more surprising.

1)Manticore at the beginning of At All Costs estimated that there were somewhere in the neighbourhood of 300-400 SD(P)s in service with Haven and another 800 or so under construction. So I doubt they under estimated anything.

2)If I am not mistaken the majority of the fleet was pre-deployed to Havenite systems near the front until the last minute so that they would not arouse any suspicion if a lot of systems ended up with no defences. So Theisman might have pre-deployed some ships and hidden them, but the majority of them were not with his units until just before they launched the attacks.

zyffyr wrote:

kzt wrote:So, In WoH the attack on Manticore occurs close to the end of Feb. 8th fleet gets notified in early March and recalled from Haven, and almost immediately pulls out. She arrives in Manticore in March. "better than two weeks after the actual attack", though apparently the junction effectively halves the distance. So it is clearly not a 2.5 month trip from Haven to Manticore. It's barely a month.

That is only relevant if the attack force is already gathered and ready to go, which as has already been established Manticore didn't think would be the case.

But they should have known that there are few heavily concentrated fleets that could be used in an attack on short notice. They made assumptions even though they would have to know he could react quickly unless they were criminally stupid.

MuonNeutrino wrote:Because, according to the author, if they had waited an extra month or two, Manticore would have been covered by system defense Apollo pods that would have massacred the attackers handily. Again, a quote from that pearl:

Weber, in the pearls wrote:...which cut at the very minimum weeks, and quite probably months, from the time which would otherwise have been required to get something like Beatrice off the ground and into Manticoran space. By which time Eighth Fleet would have been even more heavily reinforced with additional Apollo-capable SD(P)s and the system defense variant of Apollo, despite the bottlenecks, would have been deployed in strength.

That's Weber's statement, not mine, and it's not ambiguous - this entire section is in the context on why the admiralty felt confident in the security of the manticore system in particular, and so there's no way that line is talking about anywhere else. And the admiralty clearly expected that this deployment of pods would be enough to protect the home system, given that they *did* intend to release 8th fleet back to raiding duty, so it's not just a useless spreading-out of penny packets of pods over several systems. And so I'm sorry, but this statement of yours:

Sigs wrote:As for Apollo? Anything they get would have to be split between Manticore, Grayson, Andermani and Trevor's Star not enough to tip the balance.

is simply flat-out wrong, as it directly contradicts the explicit word of the author. If the attack had come later, Manticore would have been protected by shoals of system-defense apollo pods, no ifs, ands, or buts. And in that case, the attackers get annihilated without 3rd fleet or 8th fleet even having to lift a finger.

So if Beatrice was delayed by two months there would have been enough system defence pods to annihilate 500 SD(P)s?

So then here is my question, since they would have had Apollo Pods in strength by September 1921 why use Apollo in May instead of waiting for 4 months to ensure complete coverage against any conceivable attack, even if they have to suffer a series of defeats in the meantime?

Also, keep in mind, it's not that they didn't think he could get *any* attack there that quickly, it's that they didn't think he could get an attack *capable of overcoming the system defenses* there that quickly. Remember, they didn't know about the donkey, and they didn't know that the havenite forces had already been redeployed.

They didn't need to know that Haven had pre-deployed anyting, they had to know that Haven had at least 400 SD(P)s available for do or die attack. The RMN showed Haven that their fleet would shortly become obsolete and were surprised that Haven reacted quickly? If The ships were not pre-deployed it wouldn't have delayed them by that much. Why you ask?

He has Capital Fleet, so if he were to take 80% of Capital Fleet with him plus send orders to the covering fleets to link up with Capital Fleet at a location close to Manticore. It would take him a month to take Capital Fleet from Haven to a staging area closer to Manticore, another 2-3 weeks to get all fleets to arrive as well...

Manticore basically showed him the war was lost and were shocked that he was desperate enough to launch an attack? How many times throughout the series has it been said that Manticore takes the most pessimistic view of the enemy capabilities and implements it in their planning? So why on earth did they suddenly behave like the SLN?

He had a plan for a direct attack on Manticore plain and simple and they damn well should have known that since I would expect that somewhere there was a plan to attack Haven System in a desperate gamble. Theisman has a lot of talented and motivated people that come up with plans, tactics, and strategies for him just like the RMN does.

Weber, in that pearl, notes that the attacking force was "better than 80% of his total modern wall",

Then he is wrong in the pearl or he is wrong in the book or the two sides are equal. Because in the Pearl he states that 336 SD(P)s represent 80+% of the Havenite Wall while in At all Costs it is stated that 336 SD(P)s represent 80+% of the ALLIED wall. If both fleets were numerically equal and Manticore had the technological edge why were they so convinced they were on the loosing side of the war? I mean if you have 5-10 important systems to defend while your enemy has 20-50 important systems to defend with the same forces how could you be loosing?

which fits reasonably well with the numbers Theisman gave in the initial discussion of Beatrice after accounting for the losses at Lovat - in other words, based on those numbers Theisman had already pre-deployed pretty much everything short of home fleet and those few nodal defense forces.

he way I understood it is that when Prichard asked him what would remain if the attack fails he stated that would leave them with ~620 SD(P)'s and that was before Lovat so take out the 30 or so lost in Lovat.

There is no way that Theisman and Prichard would have stripped their entire nation of all defences to attack Manticore before Lovat and that would have been what it meant if they decided to send 336 SD(P)'s to attack Manticore and if that represent 80% of their fleet. They would have left 84 SD(P)s to defend Bolthole, Haven, and any other important systems.

After Lovat they would have been more willing to take major risks with their defences since those defences proved to be no match for 8th Fleet and in a real war they would have send everything including the bulk of Capital Fleet.

kzt wrote:The best data we have is this chart:

http://infodump.thefifthimperium.com/si ... gton/106/0

If you compile all the things both sides say you can get a good picture.

When Theisman and Prichard were discussing Beatrice she asked if things went bad with the attack what would it leave them with and he stated 620 SD(P)'s. Which means to me at least that those are 620 SD(P)'s on TOP of the 336. Because Beatrice was planned before Lovat and I don't think they were that desperate to win that they would have gambled the war by throwing nearly their whole fleet against prepared defences and leaving virtually nothing to fall back to.


While at the same time at the beginning of at all costs the Manticoran Admirals stated that there would be about 420 SD(P)s in service within 11-18 months of that date which was in 1919 so I have faith that they hit their target +/- 10%. 336 SD(P)s represent 80+% of the Allied wall which puts them somewhere between 373 SD(P)s and 420 SD(P)s.

I know exactly what Sigs is selling and I'd like to buy some of it.

Life has two very readily recognized caveats.

1. You don't show an opponent your hold card, unless you are ready to play it.

2. You don't pull a gun on someone, unless you are prepared to use it.

The RMN broke both adages.

Apollo was the RMN's gun. It was a big mistake to reveal it to Haven before it was in full production and distribution. It was the actions of a Sophomoric First Space Lord to not realize that unveiling Apollo had the effect of painting Haven in a corner. Even Eloise saw it. It is the same concept that fueled the race to nuclear weapons here on Earth. And still fuels it.

The RMN was not prepared to use it. Well, they were emotionally prepared. They were just not technically ready—and that was no time to split hairs. So it falls right back again to Sophomoric strategy for Manticore not to prepare itself for a possible attack. Or at least keep the thought simmering on the back burner, because Haven, realistically, could have pulled everything they had together, leaving all systems thread bare and mounted the same attack. And it would have been prudent for Haven to do so under the conditions—even if it meant totally uncovering its Home system.

Then Manticore's position naturally falls to "Protect the Queen" —protect Manticore. Which brings us full circle right back to my qualm. Even if it sent Eighth Fleet on a few "drivebys" the RMN should have kept some of the Apollo capable SDs at home.

I wouldn't see much difference in the US sending all of its fighter jets overseas to do whatever and not a single one, or very few, are left at home for a serious attack mounted against the US by surprise. A present day Pearl Harbor on a massive scale and most of our fighter jets are overseas.

Why did Eighth Fleet need all of them? The decision to retain some would have strengthened, a bit, the questionable—weak at best—maneuver of leaving the kids at home to fend for themselves while sending their mommy away. At any rate, support the maneuver "en appui," by withholding some of the Apollo capable SDs. Where was Eighth Fleet headed anyway, that they were realistically going to be needing them all?

I understand the reasoning behind Eighth Fleet's directive at that point. I just don't think they needed to have all of the Apollo capable ships.

All-in-all the RMN made a sophomoric call. IMHO.

Yes, we've argued it before. I remain unconvinced—thick skin and skull I have.

The only place that would take all Apollo armed ships would be Haven. Crushing capital fleet, and the fixed defenses. Which wasn't even on the list of possible targets. The whole awful book felt like someone going through a checklist. It's got pretty good scenes, but the overall plot feels like some went crazy with the plot hammer.

Oh, and notice for all of how David says that they were going to deploy Apollo system defense missiles next month, where were they? There are many tens of thousands of pods needed, which probably takes more than a day or two to produce and deploy. So they should have already been deploying huge numbers of them, as an Apollo pod can also be controlled by a non-Apollo based fire control system.