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WAR ROOM

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WAR ROOM
Post by cthia   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 12:25 pm

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____________W a r R o o m_______________






FIRST SPACE LORD: Admiral Thomas Caparelli

FIRST LORD OF THE ADMIRALTY: Hamish Alexander

WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT BOARD: Sonja Hemphill

CO HOME FLEET: Fleet Admiral Allen Higgins

CO EIGHTH FLEET: Fleet Admiral Honor Harrington


Don't we wish we were privy to the various levels of classified discussions going on in the War Room on either planet? What may be or should be some of the suggestions or concerns brought up there?

Why is Michelle Henke in the Talbot Sector and are there or...
Should there be any strategic or tactical concerns regarding? Should there be any contingencies in case something goes awry? Should Manticore take any other precautions regarding Michelle? Should there be any supporting force(s) stationed in a system(s) nearby?

Should the GA make any other strategic deployments in firepower or a show of force for some reason? Is there a problem of strategic depth anywhere?

Please submit any and all other concerns that may come across your mind or your desk to the table even if in the form of a handwritten note in lipstick. Even if out of the mouth of babes.





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Last edited by cthia on Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by Weird Harold   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 2:38 pm

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cthia wrote:Why is Michelle Henke in the Talbot Sector and are there or...
Should there be any strategic or tactical concerns regarding?


Michelle is in Talbott because of the terms of her Parole from Haven; she couldn't be used against Haven but she could be used in the Talbott Quadrant. Once peace was declared there was no pressing reason to move her to a different theater.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by Dauntless   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 3:31 pm

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technically with the alliance with Haven she could now be reassigned.

that said she is kicking butt and is major proof that the quadrant is seen as important to those in power back in manticore
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by jtg452   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 3:48 pm

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cthia wrote:____________W a r R o o m_______________






FIRST SPACE LORD: Admiral Thomas Caparelli

FIRST LORD OF THE ADMIRALTY: Hamish Alexander

WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT BOARD: Sonja Hemphill

CO HOME FLEET: Fleet Admiral Honor Harrington


Don't we wish we were privy to the various levels of classified discussions going on in the War Room on either planet? What may be or should be some of the suggestions or concerns brought up there?

Why is Michelle Henke in the Talbot Sector and are there or...
Should there be any strategic or tactical concerns regarding? Should there be any contingencies in case something goes awry? Should Manticore take any other precautions regarding Michelle? Should there be any supporting force(s) stationed in a system(s) nearby?

Should the GA make any other strategic deployments in firepower or a show of force for some reason? Is there a problem of strategic depth anywhere?

Please submit any and all other concerns that may come across your mind or your desk to the table even if in the form of a handwritten note in lipstick. Even if out of the mouth of babes.



Gentlemen. You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!

https://youtu.be/UAeqVGP-GPM


1) Michelle is in Talbot because she's a fleet commander and Talbot is/was under threat due to its' relative closeness to the Sollies. Simply put, that's where the threat is and she's paid to take care of threats. With her parole from Haven, she had to go someplace. Using her there freed up someone that could fight the Havenites.

2) Strategic concerns abound for the SEM right now.

First and foremost, they are vastly out numbered.

They face the potential of threats from multiple vectors, attacking in multiple places and those attacks timed too closely together for them to be able to move the forces they have around in time to deal with those threats.

Strategically, they the advantage of what was called 'interior lines' in old school linear warfare. Traditionally, the defender has that advantage already (they are moving shorter distances due to being inside their defenses rather than outside) but the SEM's advantage is magnified by their control over the MWJ and the rest of the wormhole network. The wormhole network can be used to cut down on transit time dramatically. For example, moving forces from Trevor's Star to Lynx would be many, many months in normal travel. Using the wormholes, it's down to days or weeks.

Next, they are facing a vast star nation that has material, research and manufacturing resources that are a at least couple orders of magnitude greater.

While the research and manufacturing resources are not equal in quality, the imbalance in sheer quantity gives the Sollies a clear advantage. If the Sollies came up with a new SD design and built just 1 of them in every member (just member, not controlled) system, they'd outnumber the GA fleet upon their completion.

It could work the same way for manufacturing more consumables- ammunition. Remember the way the US industrial complex swapped over to a total war footing during WW2? The Rockola JukeBox Company made M1 Carbines and Singer Sewing Machine and US Switch and Signal (made railroad switching equipment) made 1911's. Even GM's Guide Lamp Division (which normally stamped out headlights and such for the automotive lines) made guns.

Imagine 1000 systems worth of industry doing the same thing.

The same could be said for the tech disadvantage they are facing. If they used the 'shotgun' approach to their tech disadvantages by taking a problem and having each one of the various research labs assigned to that problem work on a different approach at the same time, they'd close the gap with a frightening speed.

If it took the Manties 20 years trying 10 different ways to make one piece of their tech how long would it take the Sollies using 20 different research labs trying 20 different approaches to the problem to duplicate their basic results?

Now imagine that they are doing that with every disadvantage they have. They may not be able to duplicate the Grayson powerplants for the LAC's or the improved compensators that fast but the SEM's advantage in MDM, pods and ships' guns could go the way of the dodo in pretty short order.

The SEM is also faced with the fact that both their manufacturing and research abilities are basically nonexistent at the moment after Oyster Bay. They have better ships and better weapons, they just can't build any more and won't be able to for what could be a decisive and crucial amount of time. With the advantages they have in ships and weaponry, the crucial part of the equation is ammunition. What they've got is what they've got until they can get the lines back up and running somewhere.

3) Tactical issues? The biggest one that SEM faces is that they have a very finite supply of ammunition and they can't waste any. They must have a fairly large percentage of what they have held back for defensive purposes.

If the Sollies could stomach it, they could fall back on the 'human wave' attack- they have the quantity available- to make the SEM shoot themselves dry and let the survivors of their attack force deal with the mopping up. The end result would make Ghengis Khan's body count look like a school yard fight between a couple 5 year olds in comparison but it would work.

4)Contingency planning is a wonderful thing. I don't know exactly how much real planning can be done as thinly spread as the SEM's forces are right now. The logical thing is what has been done in previous books- hunker down in a defensive stance with the majority of the forces and use only a small percentage of what you have on the offensive to keep the other side reacting to you rather than preparing for an attack at their leisure. Once the other allies get rolling in the next book, that will make a huge difference.

5) The idea of having some backup available for Michelle makes plenty of sense but where is it gonna come from?

It's not likely to be SEM forces because they are spread thin already. Currently, the closest formations worth mentioning to her is the force at the Lynx terminus and whatever force was left to cover the Talbot sector in case of someone sneaking in behind her. It I remember correctly, she pretty much stripped the cupboard bare on the way out. Neither one can really be moved very far- you can't really leave either one uncovered- but they are at least partially in mutual support range.

EDIT

There are the Andies but they have made it plain that they don't want to go to war with the Sollies. They are more than happy to help against the Mesans (and, by association, the RF or the MA once they are known to the universe) but the Sollies are the major known threat at the moment and they won't back Michelle up against them.

That's one thing that the reader has to remember when dealing with the Mesan threat. The reader knows much, much more about what's going on than the protagonists. They know it exists but they just don't know what it is while we, the readers, know much more about the threat.
END EDIT

6) Show of force would be a waste of precious resources right now. Besides, the Solly navy already of two minds on the subject. Either they believe that the Manties are 10 foot tall and bulletproof or think it's all propaganda and exaggeration. The former will either run or surrender as fast as they can and the latter is going to continue being the prototypical arrogant Solly until they are blasted to atoms.

The only exception would be support missions for the rebellions fomented by 'Firebrand'. They expect Manty support and it has been decided on high to support them. The good news it that it won't take major formations for any one of the locations. A few cruisers or half a squadron destroyers should be able to handle anything the FF will have on hand. The problem is, Firebrand was a busy boy and there's a lot of places that expect the Manties to ride to the rescue and light forces are stretched even worse than the heavies.

7) Strategic depth is useless in the days of the deep strike. Witness Fillaretta's attack on the Manticore System or most of the last Havenite War.

That also means that there's no 'behind the lines' systems that you can leave lightly covered or guard with 2nd or 3rd tier forces so the front line stuff can be used elsewhere because everywhere is a potential target. If it's important enough to guard even a little, it's potentially important enough to be attacked at any time.
Last edited by jtg452 on Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by drothgery   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 5:00 pm

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jtg452 wrote:Next, they are facing a vast star nation that has material, research and manufacturing resources that are a at least couple orders of magnitude greater.
Not even close. Just counting systems, the Grand Alliance has > 10% of the League. Average population and per capita GDP are almost certainly lower in the Grand Alliance (despite outliers like the Manticore binary system and Beowulf), but almost certainly not enough lower to even approach a two order of magnitude difference.
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by cthia   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:27 pm

cthia
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What exactly is Michelle's order of battle? Anyone have hard figures on the ready? I think she also has Task Force Talbot.

I didn't realize she had the likes of Terekov and Oversteegen in her mix as well. Potent combo.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by Theemile   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:00 pm

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cthia wrote:What exactly is Michelle's order of battle? Anyone have hard figures on the ready? I think she also has Task Force Talbot.

I didn't realize she had the likes of Terekov and Oversteegen in her mix as well. Potent combo.


It was mentioned several books ago. 20 non-upgraded Medusas, 20 CLACS, 16 Nikes, 12 Sag-Cs, and 5 Rolands were the last solid count. She has since been reinforced with more light units and support ships.
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RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by Theemile   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:21 pm

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drothgery wrote:
jtg452 wrote:Next, they are facing a vast star nation that has material, research and manufacturing resources that are a at least couple orders of magnitude greater.
Not even close. Just counting systems, the Grand Alliance has > 10% of the League. Average population and per capita GDP are almost certainly lower in the Grand Alliance (despite outliers like the Manticore binary system and Beowulf), but almost certainly not enough lower to even approach a two order of magnitude difference.


still wrong. the SL has just under 1800 members (1784 was the last mention) and an unknown # of protectrates (guesses range from 200-2000, with the average consensus being in the 400-500 range)

Manticore has 57 worlds in the empire now, with 20-40 alliance members in it's economic sphere, Have has ~150 worlds, with the ~150 former colonies in it's economic Sphere. The Anderman Empire has about 60-65 worlds in it's empire now with the conclusion of Silesia, and Erewhon/Maya/Torch have between 10 and 30 members in it's economic sphere. And, of course, there is Beowulf and anyone who sides with her.

So without the addition of any of the former protectorates, Manticore can pull from the economies of 430-470 planets.

That's about 1/4 to a 1/5 the planets which the SL can count on, but as mentioned, the economies of the SL core worlds are much larger on average.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by jtg452   » Sun Oct 23, 2016 11:56 pm

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drothgery wrote:Not even close. Just counting systems, the Grand Alliance has > 10% of the League. Average population and per capita GDP are almost certainly lower in the Grand Alliance (despite outliers like the Manticore binary system and Beowulf), but almost certainly not enough lower to even approach a two order of magnitude difference.

How many of those worlds in the Alliance are closer to Verge systems than Manticore or Beowulf in the terms of scale of industrialization?

That would cover pretty much all of Silesia and most of Talbot.

Now how many systems in the League are roughly equal to Manticore and Beowulf in terms of industrialization?

Come to think of it, just how industrialized is Beowulf? It's safe to assume that they are well capable of building pretty much anything they want but how big of a volume can they handle? How much organic ship building capability do they actually have? Setting up a line for making missiles is one thing, and an important thing in the short term, but what's their ability to build ships?

The Alliance has Manticore, Beowulf, Grayson and some of the Havenite systems that are industrial nodes and two of them (the most efficient two) are completely wrecked due to Oyster Bay, so they don't count any more.

The Andies don't count. They have already said that they were going to be neutral in the war with the Sollies. Mesa, on the other hand, they want a piece of.

Erewhon is a net plus if they are in but they are close to the League and that put them under a serious threat.

Maya is still trying to stay under the radar and can't openly assist yet. Besides, the Erewhonese are supplying them with ships and armaments, so they are a net loss, not an asset, when it comes to manufacturing.

Torch isn't a industrial hub either, so that's a net loss if they throw in with Manticore, too. Somebody's going to have to either protect them, crew the ships they have or supply them with a crash course of training to protect themselves. Right now, they can't even man the Havenite ships they were given. Those crews and ships have to come from some place.

So, right now, the Alliance has Beowulf and the Havenite systems that are capable of producing ships and armaments. Although they will be of a slightly lesser quality to and not compatible with Mantie/Grayson standard issue in the case of the Havenite equipment. Once they get the missile manufacturing running on Beowulf, that will help dramatically. Grayson and Manticore are down for the count for the near future and are looking at years before they are back to pre-Oyster Bay capacity. They have the knowledge but not the ability to produce at this time and what little capacity they do have is focused on jump starting the rebuilding process.

With that all said, just how many systems in Haven are we talking about? Yeah, there's the super secret system that nobody knows the location of but how many more are set up to actually build ships and arms? 10? 20? 50? The Alliance is pretty much down to Beowulf and however many places in Haven that can build what is needed because Manticore lost everything except their R&D and Grayson lost just as much or more.

The League, on the other hand, has like 1800 systems that are full members and the oldest of the colonies are as densely populated and industrialized as Earth. That's 100-150 1st tier systems? The 2nd tier isn't going to be that far behind and won't have the huge gap in tech that the Alliance will see between the haves and have-nots.

Manticore controls 57 total with the majority of them in Silesia and Talbot. Beowulf is a single system polity and the Havenites are in the best shape but have the lowest quality level of the three AND what they have isn't compatible with the others.

Wanna do a rethink on your argument?
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Re: WAR ROOM
Post by WLBjork   » Mon Oct 24, 2016 1:30 am

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jtg452 wrote:
drothgery wrote:Not even close. Just counting systems, the Grand Alliance has > 10% of the League. Average population and per capita GDP are almost certainly lower in the Grand Alliance (despite outliers like the Manticore binary system and Beowulf), but almost certainly not enough lower to even approach a two order of magnitude difference.

How many of those worlds in the Alliance are closer to Verge systems than Manticore or Beowulf in the terms of scale of industrialization?

That would cover pretty much all of Silesia and most of Talbot.

Now how many systems in the League are roughly equal to Manticore and Beowulf in terms of industrialization?

Come to think of it, just how industrialized is Beowulf? It's safe to assume that they are well capable of building pretty much anything they want but how big of a volume can they handle? How much organic ship building capability do they actually have? Setting up a line for making missiles is one thing, and an important thing in the short term, but what's their ability to build ships?

The Alliance has Manticore, Beowulf, Grayson and some of the Havenite systems that are industrial nodes and two of them (the most efficient two) are completely wrecked due to Oyster Bay, so they don't count any more.

The Andies don't count. They have already said that they were going to be neutral in the war with the Sollies. Mesa, on the other hand, they want a piece of.

Erewhon is a net plus if they are in but they are close to the League and that put them under a serious threat.

Maya is still trying to stay under the radar and can't openly assist yet. Besides, the Erewhonese are supplying them with ships and armaments, so they are a net loss, not an asset, when it comes to manufacturing.

Torch isn't a industrial hub either, so that's a net loss if they throw in with Manticore, too. Somebody's going to have to either protect them, crew the ships they have or supply them with a crash course of training to protect themselves. Right now, they can't even man the Havenite ships they were given. Those crews and ships have to come from some place.

So, right now, the Alliance has Beowulf and the Havenite systems that are capable of producing ships and armaments. Although they will be of a slightly lesser quality to and not compatible with Mantie/Grayson standard issue in the case of the Havenite equipment. Once they get the missile manufacturing running on Beowulf, that will help dramatically. Grayson and Manticore are down for the count for the near future and are looking at years before they are back to pre-Oyster Bay capacity. They have the knowledge but not the ability to produce at this time and what little capacity they do have is focused on jump starting the rebuilding process.

With that all said, just how many systems in Haven are we talking about? Yeah, there's the super secret system that nobody knows the location of but how many more are set up to actually build ships and arms? 10? 20? 50? The Alliance is pretty much down to Beowulf and however many places in Haven that can build what is needed because Manticore lost everything except their R&D and Grayson lost just as much or more.

The League, on the other hand, has like 1800 systems that are full members and the oldest of the colonies are as densely populated and industrialized as Earth. That's 100-150 1st tier systems? The 2nd tier isn't going to be that far behind and won't have the huge gap in tech that the Alliance will see between the haves and have-nots.

Manticore controls 57 total with the majority of them in Silesia and Talbot. Beowulf is a single system polity and the Havenites are in the best shape but have the lowest quality level of the three AND what they have isn't compatible with the others.

Wanna do a rethink on your argument?


Maybe you do.

The SL does have a fair bit of SD-capable yard capacity. The problem is, they haven't been in a fight for their lives. I'd guess that their rate of production is 1 SD every 3-5 years (per slip). Manticore - at the time of Oyster Bay - was churning out SD's in 2 years or less. Haven was a little slower, but not by much.

Before that though, you need to produce components. Some of those will need new/updated designs.

Scotty pointed out in AoV that Ghost Rider's range advantage could be countered by a massive SDM using off-the-shelf components. Not particularly practical, but it does cut down on your enemies' advantage. That will take at least a year to get into production.

The other primary concern is the SD. The SL needs to analyse the new threat environment and design their ship accordingly - with no experience *from the inside* as to how their ships are holding up. They won't have much of a clue on updated armouring schemes, or the latest compartmentalisation arrangements. That will slow them down further. Finally, this is a completely new design, rather than a modified design. It took 6 years for the SKM to go from concept to production with the Harrington/Medusa. With what is established, the SL will be lucky to get a new design out within 10 years.

That's without considering that trade and communications have been crippled by Operation Lacoon.
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