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Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...

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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by ldwechsler   » Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:54 am

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Brigade XO wrote:It is unlikely that the SL would have gotten involved if Masada somehow slipped nukes into shipments to Grayson and blew up several cities or even if the Masadan plan worked with the help of Haven and ended up using even one of their own (not a Haven built) warships to drip a KEW or two on specific points on Grayson after taking the orbitals.

Why? Because even if Manticore was there to notice, the SL wouldn't care. Neither Grayson nor certainly Masada had anything at that point that OFS would have concidered worth streaching out to take. Grayson is a LONG way from the SL. Heck, we don't even see any transtellars sniffing around Grayson. It would have been treated by the SL, if they got word of it in any kind of timelty manner, as little more than a neo-barb civil war driven by two sets of twisted religious fundimantalinsm.

The only reason Manticore was there was the same reason the Peeps were. Grayson occupies a stratigic location relative to Haven and Manticore in the tactical conciderations of Haven's expansion (specificaly taking Manticore) and Manticor'e needing to both deny Haven that position and gain support.
The approch was very different but the basic reasons were the same. You want to go with plot driven approach contrasting Haven vs Manticore, Manticore was perfectly willing to ignor Masada if they left Grayson alone and since they clearly didn't see the Haven involvement except diplomatic presence on Grayson, about the only true concern Masada presented would be possible pirate activity (they have been listening to those paranoid Graysons again) and potentially usefull but very inferior tactical position for Haven vs. Grayson. Manticore shows up with usefull modern equipment (not "glass beads and trinkets" ), offer of trade agreements and military alliance to Grayson. Masada- nada.
Of course, Grayson is not constantly plotting to take over Masada and the upper level of government clearly doesn't trust Haven but dispite the very differnt take and possibly degenerate view on religions from the Grayson point of view, Manticore has a history and tradition of fair dealing.
And so the plot unfolds.

And NONE of those FF KEW attacks on revolts pushed along by Harlap and friends nor the Intervention Battalion deployments would have been considered EE violations since FF was just doing their job at the request of the legitimate (in the eyes of the OFS and SL) governments.


As I've written, there are loopholes galore. And when you're the biggest (and you can also say "only") power around, you can do what you want.

How can a planet complain to the League about what the League has done?
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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by pappilon   » Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:50 pm

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ldwechsler wrote:As I've written, there are loopholes galore. And when you're the biggest (and you can also say "only") power around, you can do what you want.

How can a planet complain to the League about what the League has done?


And as far as any theoretical or alleged or provable EEE violations on Mesa ... WTF is the SLN going to do about it? I mean its not like they're going to storm over and take out the manticoran government. been there, done that, There's souvenir shops all over Manticore selling the We Survived Filareta tee shirts.

All it does is marginally advance the Mesan Alliance's agendas to destroy the league and blacken Manticore's name. Mesa/Daruis/MA using it as a pretext to use its invisible navy to attack Manticore again? Like they need one; and their original reasoning for not attacking Trevor's Star is still valid.
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Ursula K. LeGuinn

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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by kzt   » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:05 pm

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pappilon wrote:And as far as any theoretical or alleged or provable EEE violations on Mesa ... WTF is the SLN going to do about it? I mean its not like they're going to storm over and take out the manticoran government. been there, done that, There's souvenir shops all over Manticore selling the We Survived Filareta tee shirts.

No, it changes the game. The Edict has massive effects on the ability of the SL to wage war. You go from being at war with the SLN to being at war with the entire SL. So all the SDFs are now part of the SLN and I would assume that this totally changes the financial structure too. So now they can directly levy a war tax and can direct 1500 industrialized planets R&D into military R&D, building missile pods and warships.

There would likely be other effect too. It would be a VERY bad thing if someone was to convincingly paint Manticore as committing an Edict violation.
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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by n7axw   » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:39 pm

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kzt wrote:
pappilon wrote:And as far as any theoretical or alleged or provable EEE violations on Mesa ... WTF is the SLN going to do about it? I mean its not like they're going to storm over and take out the manticoran government. been there, done that, There's souvenir shops all over Manticore selling the We Survived Filareta tee shirts.

No, it changes the game. The Edict has massive effects on the ability of the SL to wage war. You go from being at war with the SLN to being at war with the entire SL. So all the SDFs are now part of the SLN and I would assume that this totally changes the financial structure too. So now they can directly levy a war tax and can direct 1500 industrialized planets R&D into military R&D, building missile pods and warships.

There would likely be other effect too. It would be a VERY bad thing if someone was to convincingly paint Manticore as committing an Edict violation.


It seems to me that your comment isn't realistic, kzt. You are right to say that an Eridani violation wouldn't be a good thing for Manticore. But to suggest as you do that this would marshall the whole League against Manticore? Nope. Most of the wormholes are in the possession of the RMN. At best, even assuming that most League members would respond as you suggest--a dubious assumption--the amount of time required to gather resourses, do the R&D, build additional fleets, establish the needed coordination between League members would be measured in years, or in short, more time than the League has left before it breaks apart.

And should the League commit an Eridani violation against Beowulf, the breakup will happen even faster.

In other words the day when the League could enforce the Edict is past.


Don
And
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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by ldwechsler   » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:50 pm

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n7axw wrote:
kzt wrote:And as far as any theoretical or alleged or provable EEE violations on Mesa ... WTF is the SLN going to do about it? I mean its not like they're going to storm over and take out the manticoran government. been there, done that, There's souvenir shops all over Manticore selling the We Survived Filareta tee shirts.

No, it changes the game. The Edict has massive effects on the ability of the SL to wage war. You go from being at war with the SLN to being at war with the entire SL. So all the SDFs are now part of the SLN and I would assume that this totally changes the financial structure too. So now they can directly levy a war tax and can direct 1500 industrialized planets R&D into military R&D, building missile pods and warships.

There would likely be other effect too. It would be a VERY bad thing if someone was to convincingly paint Manticore as committing an Edict violation.


It seems to me that your comment isn't realistic, kzt. You are right to say that an Eridani violation wouldn't be a good thing for Manticore. But to suggest as you do that this would marshall the whole League against Manticore? Nope. Most of the wormholes are in the possession of the RMN. At best, even assuming that most League members would respond as you suggest--a dubious assumption--the amount of time required to gather resourses, do the R&D, build additional fleets, establish the needed coordination between League members would be measured in years, or in short, more time than the League has left before it breaks apart.

And should the League commit an Eridani violation against Beowulf, the breakup will happen even faster.

In other words the day when the League could enforce the Edict is past.


Don
And
-[/quote]

It might sell in some places but there were a lot of planets where that loophole that the transtellar dictators brought down those weapons on the people.

That happened a lot in the Verge and the Shell. And those are the ones most likely to break away.
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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by kzt   » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:23 pm

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ldwechsler wrote:And those are the ones most likely to break away.

Tomorrow the NYT reports a violent rebellion in Fagatogo.

First question: Without looking it up, where is it?
Second question: Assuming it’s successful, how does this impact the economy or military of the US? What percentage of US GDP does this impact?
Third question: how long will this even be in the news on a normal week?

The verge etc is economically and militarily meaningless to the SL. I doubt anybody running a core world is going notice, much less care.
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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by pappilon   » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:44 am

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kzt wrote:
ldwechsler wrote:And those are the ones most likely to break away.

Tomorrow the NYT reports a violent rebellion in Fagatogo.

First question: Without looking it up, where is it?
Second question: Assuming it’s successful, how does this impact the economy or military of the US? What percentage of US GDP does this impact?
Third question: how long will this even be in the news on a normal week?

The verge etc is economically and militarily meaningless to the SL. I doubt anybody running a core worlde to Byng's flagship is going notice, much less care.


Without digging up textev, there was this lowl ATO Lt assigned to Byng's flagship. When he was assigned to head way out to the other edge of the Beyond fromwhere FF posted him, he had to look up the Haven Sector.

For most of core, almost all of the shell and 80% of the verge, Manticore may as well be "Fagatogo" or Diego Garcia, or Lower Timovia.

It changes almost nothing within the next 6 months. Most of the Core worlds have no SDF, almost none except the MAlign worlds have norhing better than FF has. Adding 1,000 almost equally obsolete ships in a mix of commands that have never worked together is just another Chinese Fire Drill.

AND, No Way Kolkoltsov is going to stick his hand back into that honey pot again. IDK how many screaming mobs His minister of propaganda can stir up in Old Chicago. Not until some R&D somewhere can do something, anything. And even with virtually unlimited money, reverse enginering, development and production are not instantaneous. Even in Weberverse.
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The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by Weird Harold   » Fri Mar 16, 2018 5:04 am

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pappilon wrote:Without digging up textev, there was this lowl ATO Lt assigned to Byng's flagship. When he was assigned to head way out to the other edge of the Beyond fromwhere FF posted him, he had to look up the Haven Sector.


The "lowly ATO Lt" assigned to Byng's flagship was from Frontier Fleet. The tactical analyses that got him in trouble with Byng's Battle Fleet Staff was derived from Adm Thurston's (also Frontier Fleet) analysis of the Battle of Monica. Considering the Haven Sector was 750 ly or so from their area of operations just a year or two ago, the Meyers detachment of Frontier Fleet did fairly well at assessing the available intel on the RMN.

If anything, Byng's Battle Fleet staff dropped the ball because Battle Fleet should have had (did have but ignored) far more information than a Frontier Fleet detachment 3/4 of the League diameter away from the area of interest.

pappilon wrote:It changes almost nothing within the next 6 months.


The Solarian League doesn't HAVE six months.

pappilon wrote:AND, No Way Kolkoltsov is going to stick his hand back into that honey pot again. ... Not until some R&D somewhere can do something, anything. ...


Read the snippets already posted. Whether Kolkoltsov had anything to do with directing or authorizing "Operation Buccaneer" the SLN's version of "commerce raiding" is "sticking the hand back in..."

Given the time frame announced for UH, the SLN is NOT waiting on R&D.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by pappilon   » Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:56 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:[Snip]
Given the time frame announced for UH, the SLN is NOT waiting on R&D.


Yes, certainly. However, his decisions are still being manipulated by the agent of The MAlign. He is still not approving a whole 'nother mass assault on The Manticore Binary System. Guerre des coursesis not, as far as I can tell, the official response to an EEE violation.

No, he is not "waiting on R&D)." What he is trying to do is survive until R&D. And, yes, it seems he doesn't have a year until his house of cards collapses. He is powerless, the SLN is powerless, to do something, anything, tactically meaningful, which does not excuse doing nothing. Hence his acceptance of "Operation" Buccaneer. Which, in the face of Haven's part of the GA, is laughable to me. Haven has been using q-ships as commerce raiders pre OBS. Manticore has used q-ships as pirate bait. The SLN has no institutional knowlege to pull it off moe than a few times against the GA.

Which leaves the vaunted Solaran League Navy, to pick on verge nations.
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The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

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Re: Eridani Edict Violation of the most Dismissive Kind...
Post by kzt   » Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:01 pm

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Fighting pirates and commerce raiders have pretty much no similarity. A SLN ship gets within say 36M KM of a merchant the merchant is dead. There is no need to close, match velocities etc. Raider fires a small group of missiles that is programed to ensure that the merchant can't roll the ship against more than a small percentage and then it leaves.

Merchants have no redundancy or armor. X-ray lasers will blow huge gaping holes through both sides and the reflections from the plasma will nicely irradiate much of the ship.

Maybe the ship blows up, maybe it doesn't. Maybe it's just severely damaged. Maybe the crew chooses to abandon ship during the many minutes they have, maybe it doesn't. Not their problem.

You an say "but we'll convoy with warships for missile defense." And I say "really"? There are like 20,000 member of the Manticoran Merchant Marine. There are HUGE demands on light ships for spider screening. There are demands from the extra 60 members/protectorates of the SEM for protection. Where do you get all these ships?
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