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The break up of the Solarian League

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The break up of the Solarian League
Post by Rincewind   » Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:37 pm

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Ever since I read in A Rising Thunder how Oravil Barregos had foreseen the break up of the Solarian League & prepared accordingly I have wondered about the following:

How many other systems have also foreseen the break up of the Solarian League & started preparing accordingly?

If an Office of Frontier Security Sector Governor can foresee it long enough ago for him to prepare his Sepoy Option then surely some of the system governments within the League could also have predicted it: (I am not including those systems of the RF as they have been part of a conspiracy to cause it to happen). And, if they could predict it, then take steps to take advantage of or, at the very least, minimise the effects of?

Thoughts anyone?
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by martin   » Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:52 pm

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Oravil pretty much anticipates that others would see the break-up coming. He talks about a descent into Warlordism and they would have to become the biggest nastiest warlords on the block. But wether anyone else anticipated the League's collapse quite as early as he did is not really something we know. Other than a certain HH that is.
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by Crown Loyalist   » Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:51 pm

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Rincewind wrote:Ever since I read in A Rising Thunder how Oravil Barregos had foreseen the break up of the Solarian League & prepared accordingly I have wondered about the following:

How many other systems have also foreseen the break up of the Solarian League & started preparing accordingly?

If an Office of Frontier Security Sector Governor can foresee it long enough ago for him to prepare his Sepoy Option then surely some of the system governments within the League could also have predicted it: (I am not including those systems of the RF as they have been part of a conspiracy to cause it to happen). And, if they could predict it, then take steps to take advantage of or, at the very least, minimise the effects of?

Thoughts anyone?


Some surely have, but probably not many. People have trouble predicting dramatic change away from a long-lasting status quo (for understandable psychological reasons). Some people can see big changes coming - the political equivalent of an innovator - and those're the ones we've met. But the League at large is so used to the universe being a certain way and has been used to it for so long, plus the actual moment of change is inherently unpredictable. Most people have vested interests in the existing system, which makes it even more difficult to conceive of the possibility of change.

A more interesting question to me is which leaders will be able to respond to the change in productive, advantageous ways, rather than just panicking. Those're the warlords: the ones who will take ruthless advantage of the change even if they didn't see it coming in advance.
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by Nico   » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:29 pm

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The fact that the Core World populations generally enjoy such a high quality of life and are so convinced of the League's utter superiority in everything, coupled with their willful ignorance of the fact that life in the Verge is so much harsher than their own, means that even long after the start of the war with the GA many League citizens will remain convinced that no one would even dream of wishing for freedom from League rule.
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by Rincewind   » Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:45 pm

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Nico wrote:The fact that the Core World populations generally enjoy such a high quality of life and are so convinced of the League's utter superiority in everything, coupled with their willful ignorance of the fact that life in the Verge is so much harsher than their own, means that even long after the start of the war with the GA many League citizens will remain convinced that no one would even dream of wishing for freedom from League rule.


To use a real world example which has been plastered all over the news I imagine the EU leaders & many citizens thought the same thing about the EU & look at what just happened in the UK.
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by DDHv   » Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:04 pm

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Crown Loyalist wrote:

snip

Some surely have, but probably not many. People have trouble predicting dramatic change away from a long-lasting status quo (for understandable psychological reasons). Some people can see big changes coming - the political equivalent of an innovator - and those're the ones we've met. But the League at large is so used to the universe being a certain way and has been used to it for so long, plus the actual moment of change is inherently unpredictable. Most people have vested interests in the existing system, which makes it even more difficult to conceive of the possibility of change.

A more interesting question to me is which leaders will be able to respond to the change in productive, advantageous ways, rather than just panicking. Those're the warlords: the ones who will take ruthless advantage of the change even if they didn't see it coming in advance.


One change coming up in the real world is the financial troubles coming to a head. How many know the effects of rising interest rates? How many know the effects of currency becoming worthless? How many know problems ahead are probable?

These things are worth studying at present :!:

How many can navigate well through the rapids ahead
:?:
Douglas Hvistendahl
Retired technical nerd

Dumb mistakes are very irritating.
Smart mistakes go on forever
Unless you test your assumptions!
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by feyhunde   » Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:52 pm

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Rincewind wrote:
Nico wrote:The fact that the Core World populations generally enjoy such a high quality of life and are so convinced of the League's utter superiority in everything, coupled with their willful ignorance of the fact that life in the Verge is so much harsher than their own, means that even long after the start of the war with the GA many League citizens will remain convinced that no one would even dream of wishing for freedom from League rule.


To use a real world example which has been plastered all over the news I imagine the EU leaders & many citizens thought the same thing about the EU & look at what just happened in the UK.



To extend this metaphor, the Core Worlds are the EU, with the EU has a whole now owning all their old colonies. With the Brexit its looking good for India to try for independence.

But not every protectorate is going to be the same. Some might have a core cabal like Maya Sector expecting it and building long term plans. Maybe some will just have fringe independence movements fighting OFS. But a talented Sector Governor with arrangements with their Frontier Fleets might dream of their own pocket kingdom.

A few places there may be pirates or neo-barb governments wanting to slice off systems for themselves as the SLN loses ships.
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by John Prigent   » Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:10 am

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Eh? How long has India been part of the EU? It has been an independent state for nearly 70 years so I think there's a slight flaw in the idea that it might now try for independence. Please clarify your argument.
Cheers
John
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by munroburton   » Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:42 am

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John Prigent wrote:Eh? How long has India been part of the EU? It has been an independent state for nearly 70 years so I think there's a slight flaw in the idea that it might now try for independence. Please clarify your argument.
Cheers
John


I think the thrust of his argument is that the EU contains nations which have previously ruled over colonial empires and that the EU is somehow using those historical links to abuse those former colonial territories.

Britain - Australia, Canada, India, rest of Commonwealth
France - North Africa, Middle East, a few overseas territories
Spain/Portugal - South America

Utter nonsense, of course.
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Re: The break up of the Solarian League
Post by zyffyr   » Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:14 am

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munroburton wrote:
John Prigent wrote:Eh? How long has India been part of the EU? It has been an independent state for nearly 70 years so I think there's a slight flaw in the idea that it might now try for independence. Please clarify your argument.
Cheers
John


I think the thrust of his argument is that the EU contains nations which have previously ruled over colonial empires and that the EU is somehow using those historical links to abuse those former colonial territories.

Britain - Australia, Canada, India, rest of Commonwealth
France - North Africa, Middle East, a few overseas territories
Spain/Portugal - South America

Utter nonsense, of course.


You are both misreading his analogy. He isn't commenting on today.

Take the actual membership of the modern EU, and consider them as representing the SL Core Worlds.

But, don't have the EU nations as they are now. Have them as they were during the Age of Colonialism. The countries that they were controlling and exploiting during that time would be the equivalent of the OFS protectorates.
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