League Survival

I have this scenario in my head right now and I want to see how others might see it or react to it.


Say it’s October 1922 PD, you suddenly through a series of events end up as the sole leader of the League after the Mandarins are assassinated. Manticore and the GA have decided that the League has got to go and Beowulf is out of the League. The GA is no longer willing to discuss peace where the League stays in one piece and even though you outnumber the GA in SD’s by ~1800 SD’s to ~800 SD’s the firepower balance is not even close.


What would you do to keep the League united long enough to mobilize it’s resources?
What would you do to regain military balance?
What would you do to jumpstart the economy?
What would you do to keep the GA off Balance or at least occupied for long enough to regain some degree of equality?



The Prerequisites are that:
-You don’t buy into the MA at least until the RF kicks in.
-You cannot make peace with the GA and continue to exist as the league.
-Because of fear/propaganda etc... you can force through pretty much any reforms you may want.



What would you do?

I try to wake up, because I know that scenario must be a bad dream. I don't think your pre-requisites are plausible in the Honorverse.

If we do this strictly as a hypothetical alternative universe where this scenario and pre-requisites make sense, and I am allowed to act smart, I grab all my cash and look for some other sucker to take the job while I book a flight to Nueva Argentina. There is no way that I could keep the League together long enough in that situation. The best I could do is put together a rump League that might hold together long enough. But large sections are going to fall away, and there's nothing I can do about it.

Keeping in mind that "diplomacy is the art of saying 'nice doggie' while reaching for a rock" I'll apologize for the corrupt actions of the previous government. Essentially agree that everything manticore has stated is correct and we are terribly sorry, but the corrupt former government had been lying to us too. Essentially offer them everything they want. (They might not take it, but it makes us obviously the good guys to the SL members when we get at attacked anyhow).

Also start a public urge of their supporters and the more obviously corrupt officials.

At the same time get the SLN to stop their idiotic offensive plans, but to have them start a very intensive study of all the public domain and Intel on the Haven sector wars and find whoever are the actual experts on this in SL space. The SL needs to start both an R&D project on the tech we don't have and a rapid development project to build/upgrade/modify systems that allow us to be at least marginally effective.

Offensive plans should be based on identifying the absolutely best hyperspace navigators and start practicing precision crash transits into energy range of a known target in normal space, followed by rapidly mining the crap out of the exit and approach lanes.

Haven's still pretty poor on a per capita level, and its intelligence agencies don't have much experience protecting the sort of technical secrets the Manties don't care as much about anyway. Get our best agents and suitcases full of cash.
Also look into pretty much every current and former havinite and manty ally for this sort of thing.

Sigs wrote:The Prerequisites are that:
-You don’t buy into the MA at least until the RF kicks in.

The MAlign has a vested interest in the League's collapse. If you should by some freak accident become effective at holding even a large remnant together, your life expectancy will drop into negative numbers very quickly.

I think by 1922 PD, it is far too late to save the League. Perhaps an anti-corruption regime and a witch hunt for Mesan Star Line sleepers beginning around the turn of the century might have averted the conflict with Manticore, but I think you'd have to push reforms even further back to make any real difference.

You don't have to hold the entire league together, just something that gives you the best chance to (1) survive as a nation (2)last long enough to gain parity (3) give you the resources to regain lost territories. Holding all of the league systems is not likely to succeed, but a Solarian League with enough industrial might to reach technological parity and rebuild the fleet while the GA is busy with the MA might have a slight chance.

Sigs wrote:Holding all of the league systems is not likely to succeed, but a Solarian League with enough industrial might to reach technological parity and rebuild the fleet while the GA is busy with the MA might have a slight chance.

Not going to happen without a serious revision to history. Neither Manticore nor the MAlign have any reason to allow your desire to come to pass. As long as you refuse to believe in the MAlign until the Renaissance Factor shows its true colors, you're doomed.

Sigs wrote:You don't have to hold the entire league together, just something that gives you the best chance to (1) survive as a nation (2)last long enough to gain parity (3) give you the resources to regain lost territories. Holding all of the league systems is not likely to succeed, but a Solarian League with enough industrial might to reach technological parity and rebuild the fleet while the GA is busy with the MA might have a slight chance.

The presumed scenario seems to imply that the GA will be letting the grass grow under it's feet while you're busy pulling shenanigans in the League.

The League is acknowledged to have a very good, all around, tech base. But we all know it is sorely lacking in the critical war department areas of weapons, counter measures and ship design. We also know they have no knowledge of fission plants or the improved beta nodes/beta squared nodes.

Leaving aside the miniaturization requirements, researching and developing, even with stealing/buying/coercing some of the information, these technologies would take a significant amount of time. Even if some one in the League is already leaning in the proper directions. A year or two, minimum. (And that's assuming you have good spies and scientists who are already moving in the proper direction.)

Assuming you have your ship yards, which the League has way more of then the GA, ready to move at once. Assume their going to build everything simultaneously without any problems. Then you build your ships and weapon systems. This takes a minimum of two years.

Just this time delay of ~4 years, fastest possible case we could ever imagine with lots of really generous assumptions, would be killer. The GA wouldn't sit idle while you were busy doing all this. If nothing else, the GA would hit the ship yards, smash them good, and chide the League for imagining that it could try to attack the GA when it's back was turned.

If you try to pull off the same thing Haven did with Bolthole, you'd need even longer. Time to build your yards, get techs and equipment in place, and then begin building your ships from scratch. A place large enough to turn out sufficient ships to be a danger, or a collection of places, would be a massive and notable draw on the League's personnel. Not easily hidden.

The long and the short of it is simple and sad, at this point. Mike's fleet could sail through the entire League, facing everything the League has, and destroy it. While leaving Honor free to deal with the MAlignment. There wouldn't be a need to worry about keeping the GA busy while you recovered the League in some fashion. You wouldn't have the time before being crushed by a light task force of the GA. I'm sure that Beowulf could spare a few squadrons to deal with the League on the GA's behalf. Especially after events we know are coming, occur.

To address a few things from the original post, though...

The economy doesn't need a jump start, as I'm reading it. It needs to be re-organized. Internal merchant marine traffic (cargo ships) need to be built in mass quantities to pick up the carrying trade. There are people to do this, and yards to build the ships. I'd imagine that enterprising League individuals are already exploring this option.

The planets are still producing, and life is still going on, for most people. There's money in the economy. The federal government is having trouble with it's budgets, sure. But the planetary governments are not, barring the difficulties caused by the lack of bottoms to carry goods.

Holding the remaining League planets together shouldn't be too difficult. It's become the sort of fight where they're screwed no matter what they do. Those planets which haven't already broken away into their own factions or the RF, will hang with whomever talks quickest and promises the best results. Delivery pending, of course.

Just my two credits worth. And, no, I don't want the change.

Sigs wrote:You don't have to hold the entire league together, just something that gives you the best chance to (1) survive as a nation (2)last long enough to gain parity (3) give you the resources to regain lost territories. Holding all of the league systems is not likely to succeed, but a Solarian League with enough industrial might to reach technological parity and rebuild the fleet while the GA is busy with the MA might have a slight chance.

The thing is, the GA isn't really getting distracted by the MA. The GA is concentrating on the League, and will deal with the MA when and as they can.

But, of course, I the new leader of the Solarian League don't believe in the MA. If, for some reason, I do not do the smart thing and fly to Nueva Argentina, I might as well go for the rump League.

Withdraw all forces from the Protectorates. Recall all the governors. The mass confusion as all of those systems find themselves on their own in a war zone will slow the GA down some.

Work toward building a coalition of inner worlds who want to stay together. Focus on Core worlds and dedicated Shell worlds. Pump up the patriotic rhetoric: The League is the First Nation, the League must not Perish, the League is Eternal, etc. Try to get a few hundred systems fully behind the League as the oldest star nation, representing the will of the people and protector of the galaxy. Don't try to hold onto any systems that actively try to break away, and push away any that you think might poison the unity.

Do whatever is necessary to unify the remaining systems. A fleet in every system, if it will keep them happy. Get them to build shipyards in every system--maybe you can even get them to do it on their own budget, if you play it right. The construction will at least appear to help the economy. Build up the true believer angle until it becomes a refrain--We Are the League.

Pour money into R&D, partly based on intelligence data and partly on any blue-sky ideas that might pan out.

If there are any wormhole termini in the area of the rump league, work up plans on capturing it. This might involve transiting within cataphract range of the terminus with overwhelming force. If successful, mine the heck out of it, and prevent the GA from coming through it. Take only the wormhole termini necessary--the goal is to eliminate back doors into the rump league.

All of this will still fail, and if I'm smart I will know it (even if I don't believe in the MA). For one thing, the Beowulf terminus is only 40 light-years from Sol, and I know I cannot take it. That right there is a big step toward Game Over.

Sigs wrote:I have this scenario in my head right now and I want to see how others might see it or react to it.


Say it’s October 1922 PD, you suddenly through a series of events end up as the sole leader of the League after the Mandarins are assassinated. Manticore and the GA have decided that the League has got to go and Beowulf is out of the League. The GA is no longer willing to discuss peace where the League stays in one piece and even though you outnumber the GA in SD’s by ~1800 SD’s to ~800 SD’s the firepower balance is not even close.


What would you do to keep the League united long enough to mobilize it’s resources?
What would you do to regain military balance?
What would you do to jumpstart the economy?
What would you do to keep the GA off Balance or at least occupied for long enough to regain some degree of equality?



The Prerequisites are that:
-You don’t buy into the MA at least until the RF kicks in.
-You cannot make peace with the GA and continue to exist as the league.
-Because of fear/propaganda etc... you can force through pretty much any reforms you may want.



What would you do?

Even if I don't buy that the MA exists, I would still look into the possibility of using it to avoid war with Manticore.

At the very least, it'd buy time. I'd offer Manticore a ceasefire and a bilateral joint investigation into the alleged activities of this Mesan Alignment. Even with access to the wormholes, it'd still take months of travel time for the investigators to reach Mesa, Torch, Yildun, as well as reporting to both Sol and Manticore(and by extension, the other GA members). Possibly decades to deliver a final report.

Of course, the GA is liable to make demands to assuage its security concerns. I will comply, or appear to, with those in exchange for a lift of the Laocoon blockade. I will surrender the SLN Reserve and reduce Battle Fleet's wallers to an one-to-one basis with member SDFs. Offer to host permanent observers at all my existing shipyards and fleet bases.

If this works, great. We can then recall OFS from the Verge, hold a constitutional convention to reform the League into a Confederation centered around the Sol sector and organise plebiscites for everyone.

If it turns out the MA really does exist, even better. We'll help take them down. Even rubber-stamp the Yawata strike as an Eridani Edict violation(despite Manticore accepting it wasn't). The Navy will get to come home with a proud victory in its pockets for once.

However, all this ignores the enormous competiting pressures any leader of the League would face now. Public opinion. The bureaucracies. The Assembly. Transtellars more concerned with looting the Verge than freedom of shipping. All the various possible secessionist systems. Add in the GA's concerns about getting Boltholed and the access they would need to verify there isn't one. Revanchists(whom I can't quell because even if I were building a modern Navy, I couldn't tell them that).

Basically, I wouldn't give a damn if, instead of the MAlign, Manticore was talking about an Illuminati-sanctioned invasion of Tribbles from the Andromeda galaxy commanded by Xenu. As newfound leader of the League, my first step has to be to secure a power base, or someone with one will attempt to oust me.

The above concessions are an attempt to secure the Navy(you no longer have to die under Manticoran missiles or abuse Verge neobarbs), the merchants(trade flows freely once again) and a broad appeal to member systems on the basis of restored stability. And the GA itself, because it will not want to deal with anyone less reasonable. Will it be enough to overcome the entrenched interests of the previous status quo? Who knows.