Operation Sanskrit - a minor doubt

kzt wrote:There is also the point that others have brought up before, which is that if the raids are so important why are they not getting assigned sufficient and appropriate forces to do them with?

Don't forget the raids where launched after Janacks & HighRidge and co. effectively cut the RMN to the bone.

The re-activated fleet got every vessel and newest tech that could be provided (e.g. the only Nike class in existence) to force the Haven to take the threat seriously.

The RMN was scrapping the bottom of the barrel to take the war to the enemy, that's why they put Honor in charge.

The real question, should be why didn't the SEM go on the propaganda offensive in Haven (and SL) territory pointing out the new boss must be like the old after all:
* violated the sovereignty of a neutral territory, illegally engaging its navy (i.e. the Destroyer unprovoked attack against the Pirates Bane, whilst it carried out its legal duty of investigating a unknown warship present in SC territory)
* attempted to manipulate the IAN and RMN in to a shooting war so they could take over the SC
* Killed a political opponent in an "air car crash" (where have we heard that before)
* Its entire leadership is made up of "ex"-terrorists
* There no proof (from the SEM perspective (after all no observes from the SEM/Alliance where present)) that the vote on planets staying in or out of the Republic is legitimate (and the results for worlds that wanted to leave where never acted on - they still being 'negotiated')

kzt wrote:There is also the point that others have brought up before, which is that if the raids are so important why are they not getting assigned sufficient and appropriate forces to do them with?

Enforced with the armada that was the Grayson Home Fleet or with basically hundreds of conventional SDs which simply vanished since WoH?

Jonathan_S wrote:With Sanscript/Cutworm Manticore was trying to distract Haven from launching new offenses; because their conventional units wouldn't have been able to contain that.

The Cutworm Raids were a solid idea and bought valuable time.
Sanskrit however was an ill thought out operation with disastrous consequences.
Honor and the Manticoran Admiralty in general made the mistake of sticking to the original objective from 6 tmonths ago while ignoring the changed strategic picture.

During the Cutworm Raids Manticore could do nothing but buy some time for something. They didnt know how much time they had, how much time they needed or what they were waiting for in the first place.
Even with the Andermani SD(P)s showing up in the theatre the strategic outlook was very grim.

This changed between Cutworm and Sanskrit because of two things.
First Gobi happened.
While the first major havenite offensive in the second war was a decisive victory for them it established a crucial point: Haven wasnt ready to really roll the dice on something big yet.
They enjoyed a huge numerical advantage and effectively closed the tech gap, but all they 'dared' to do was using a small fraction of their available strength to attack a tertiary target at best.
This means it is highly unlikely they will show up at Manticore 300 SD(P)s next Tuesday - no matter what Eighth Fleet will or wont do.
There was no pressing need for Eighth Fleet to hit Lovat, at worst the RHN will show up at Basilisk, Trevors Star or Grayson.
This would be a major development but in no means decisive anymore because of Apollo.

Which is of course the second major change in the strategic picture.
With Apollo, Manticore has something to look forward to beside defeat in another tyear.
They just have to hold on long enough to get the new tech fielded in reasonable numbers.
This should be a relatively simple task, all whats required is to defend the Home System for another six months.
A full scale havenite attack without them knowing whats going on is highly unlikely after Gobi. So just keep Eighth Fleet at home right at the wormhole junction as a quick reaction force to Havenite operations against Trevor or Basilisk.
And for godsake dont run off to some strategically meaningless system and give them any ideas by demonstrating your new wonder weapon.
Just wait until they come to you and demonstrate it at the termini or at home if you have to.
The hole 'but they have to test it to be sure' argument doesnt fly either. It either works or it doesnt. If it works itll work at home just like it would have at Lovat. If it doesnt work the war is lost anyway.

The Admiralty got it right by holding back the podlayers in the first war, actually losing battles, ships, lives and star systems in the process. They had the strategic foresight to know it was worth it. They miserably failed at during the second war and never got passed the 'gosh we have to do something, lets throw Honor at them no matter what'.

Why did this happen?

It might be provocative but personally I blame it on the marginalization of Caparelli. During the first war he and Grievens who run the show, Countess Mourncreek as First Lord basically had no part in formulating strategy. Caparelli had a pretty free reign and the trust of the Crown and First Lord on top of that.
During the second war he had White Haven.

White Haven had a different take on the office of First Lord as Mourncreek. He basically reduced Caparelli and Grievens to a voice on the table and was much more involved in the actual warfighting.
And remember, this is the guy who during the first war basically was either on the offensive all the time or bitching about why he wasn’t.

To make matters worse, Grievens had her hands full to repair some of the damage at ONI, so she likely wasn’t able to support Caparelli like she used to.
This would be difficult enough, especially since Caparelli has his personal issues with Alexander, but then there is Honor on top of it all.
As wife to White Haven and favorite of the Crown she sits on the table as well and her voice carries much more weight than Caparellis.

I don’t care how awesome everyone thinks she is but up to this point she demonstrated pretty much zero in the strategy department. I’m not saying she has no talent for it, but most of the time it’s a bad idea to have someone make strategic decisions just because she happens to be a brilliant field commander.

After Cutworm III it is understandable she wants to get back into the fight. She suffered her first real defeat and wants to proof to everyone and herself it was a one time thing. She lost her closest friend at Solon, she wants the enemy to pay for it. Also they did do some damage and sitting back just invites another Zanzibar, so its attack, attack and attack for her.

Just what you want for your aggressive field commander but not necessarily for someone who is supposed to sit back and think about what might actually happen.


So since both White Haven and Harrington were probabaly pressing for attack it is hihgly unlikley Caparelli would have been able to push a different apporach through.

I’m not saying Honor or White Haven is actually to blame. Merely that the characters of the relevant decision makers contributed to the questionable decision to attack at Lovat.
Such things happen, people are not machines and may have a wrong perspective on things which in their minds still looks perfectly logical.
But others - like Caparelli and Grievens during the first war - would have looked at the situation differently.


But whatever. This has all been discussed before many times. RFC even posted about it somewhere.

Are we reading the same book? Harrington tried to stop Cutworm. Nearly went to the mat with Willie Alexander over it... The driving force for implementing Cutworm after the collapse of the Torch summit is the queen who is furious over the Webster asassination and the attempt on Berry and Ruth on Torch for which she blamed Haven.

Don

kzt wrote:There is also the point that others have brought up before, which is that if the raids are so important why are they not getting assigned sufficient and appropriate forces to do them with?

Enforced with the armada that was the Grayson Home Fleet or with basically hundreds of conventional SDs which simply vanished since WoH?


Most of them had been mothballed by Janacks', the RMN had to reactivate them on a crash priority bases on the ground that any SD was better than no SD (even if it couldn't shoot MDMs) and also had to assign them to protect Manticore and their Allies.
The available Grayson SDs were assigned to protect the MWJ which was a priority one objective, whilst the rest where protecting Grayson.

n7axw wrote:Are we reading the same book? Harrington tried to stop Cutworm. Nearly went to the mat with Willie Alexander over it... The driving force for implementing Cutworm after the collapse of the Torch summit is the queen who is furious over the Webster asassination and the attempt on Berry and Ruth on Torch for which she blamed Haven.

Don

This is correct but beside the point.
Harrington never tried to stop Sanskrit for strategic reasons. She had issues with it because of the visiti of Chachat and Zilwicki but thats it. The argument whether or not it was military sound to attack again was never brought up. Not by her, not by her husband, noone.
The Queen demanded action and the Admiralty just went ahead executing their old plans without thinking.

Faced with the decision to attack or not to attack (with revealing Apollo at Lovat)they just pulled the trigger again.
Its not the job of the Queen to formulate battle plans. The decision to start shooting again is hers, but it is the job of the Admiralty to come up with a workable plan.

If you look at what actually happened, it was Hamish who sold the Queen on Sanskirt during some government meeting.
It pretty much went like ‘So Hamsih I want to go to war again – Sure no problem, we still have this 6 tmonths old operation plan laying around, should we do this? – Yeah give them hell’

Poor Caparelli wasnt even present. Back in the day it would have been him to come up with something and sell it to the First Lord which in turn gets approval from Prime Minister and the Crown if necessary.

And that’s how it should be. He is ‘responsible for overall strategic direction, force structure management and deployment’ while the Second Space Lords job would be to handle ‘operational and tactical planning’.

The First Lord is there to handle the overall coordination of naval policy as directed by the Cabinet.

But during the White Haven Admiralty the Crown was effectively dictating battle plans to the First Space Lord. An absurd situation only made possibly the close personal relation the Alexander-Harringtons have with the Queen.

Garth2 wrote:Most of them had been mothballed by Janacks', the RMN had to reactivate them on a crash priority bases on the ground that any SD was better than no SD (even if it couldn't shoot MDMs) and also had to assign them to protect Manticore and their Allies.

The available Grayson SDs were assigned to protect the MWJ which was a priority one objective, whilst the rest where protecting Grayson.

Oh yeah, the mystery Black Hole called 'Grayson & Allies'. Heard that one before.

The RMN has at minimum 125 active SDs and some 34 SD(P) not deployed during BoMa.
The GSN is sitting on up to 90 SDs (at worst a third active) while their Home Fleet consists of more than 60 SD(P).
Thats 300 walllers between them.
Which are busy protecting the smoking ruins of Zanzibar and Alizon and the vitally important Allies called Yorik, Poicters, Candor, Minette and Casca.

This is so important 3rd Fleet actually lost 50% of their hulls between Thunderbolt and BoMa.´

fallsfromtrees wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:You probably couldn't have hidden the fact that something new was going on; but you could have avoided the "clumping" behavior by simply not launching the Apollo Control Missiles from the pod. Treat each launch as an 8 missile pod.

That would leave Haven wondering why Manticore suddenly had 2 less missiles per pod, but it wouldn't shout "FTL control" to them.


Alternatively you could launch Apollo but use it under light-speed control (as was later done at Spindle), which would be appear a little more capable than the pre-Apollo missiles (especially if you didn't exploit the 8x control multiplier it gave you). Enough to justify the change, but not enough to be truly panic inducing.

fallsfromtrees wrote:Apollo had the sub light links left in. Just use them. As RHN already had used the one control missile to control more missiles, doing so with sub light comms doesn't given anything away.

Jonathan_S wrote:When did the RHN do that? I know they used rotating control links - but that's totally different than using 1 missile as a control hub for multiple other missiles.

Vince wrote:The Battle of Spindle, where Terekhov's and Tremaine's Saganami-C cruisers (12 in total) defeated (destroyed, mission-killed, or captured) 71 SLN SDs plus screen and Fleet Train, with the assistance of some RMN ammunition ships loaded with Apollo pods. Henke's Nike BCs didn't have to fire a shot.

The question was not with reference to the sub light links on Apollo used by the Manticoran navy, but the Haven navy use of cascading links - using one missile to control many.

D'oh! What happens when I post too late at night (somehow, I read the H as an M).

I disagree about the idea of Caparelli/Givens being sidelined.
Book wise, however, we don't get to be the fly on the wall in the pit with Givens and Caparelli like we did in AoV (Ashes of Victory) coming up with the strategies that they are giving to White Haven, etc. to keep the SEM from losing the war.

Keep in mind "text ev" and at that point in the RMN intel space, the RMN did not have a good count of Havenite ships, especially new build SD(p)s; just the prediction that based on past experieince, sometime in the near future, the RHN would achieve strategic superiority allowing them to execute what we call Operation Beatrice at ANY time, in any or all Allied systems. It may even be that "astrographic positions" made the home system even more vulnerable in future months based on planetary positions relative to the Junction.

What we do have is in the text after Solon is the strategic goal is still to prove to the war planners in Haven that "you really really don't want to do this. By showing Apollo they effectively say "we can hit you anywhere you want with impunity. You'll need all that new build construction to defend your key systems just to stop us...if you can". Secondarily, the counter-trap at Lovat was also designed to diminish the RHN "new build wall of battle" by every SD(p) in every formation, [to their knowledge perhaps 8-10% of the worked up ships) which is also a strategically and tactically sound idea all by itself.

That said, I'm not sure if the planned raid at Jouett makes sense (stellar cartography, perhaps?); I would have been loading up to take out Haven directly, because once the Apollo system defense pods are worked up, Eighth Fleet can be turned loose to do just that. Instead they're anchored to Trevor's Star as part of the defense and strategic reserve between offensive actions.

Had Beatrice not already been loaded up and nearly ready to go, it would have been an effective strategy.

I disagree about the idea of Caparelli/Givens being sidelined.
Book wise, however, we don't get to be the fly on the wall in the pit with Givens and Caparelli like we did in AoV (Ashes of Victory) coming up with the strategies that they are giving to White Haven, etc. to keep the SEM from losing the war.

We don’t need to be a fly on their wall to see they were not involved. The hole Torch business happened and the Queen was demanding action during a cabinet meeting. Hamish brought up Sanskrit, discussed it with the Queen and his brother and got the order to get things going.
That’s it and that’s highly irregular. He should have gone straight to Caparelli and Grievens when the Queen was demanding action, not selling here 6 tmonths old battle plans.
This is on him.
Its speculation but it actually looks like there was nothing happening at the Admiralty between Cutworm and Sanskrit. They had almost half a tyear to come up with a number of different options but we see none of it. Just compare the Manticoran preparedness with how Theisman did his job. He actually presented Pritchart strategic options to chose from.
Compared to that the Manties are stuck at ‘Honor is awesome, so get her outthere to shoot at stuff’.

Keep in mind "text ev" and at that point in the RMN intel space, the RMN did not have a good count of Havenite ships, especially new build SD(p)s; just the prediction that based on past experieince, sometime in the near future, the RHN would achieve strategic superiority allowing them to execute what we call Operation Beatrice at ANY time, in any or all Allied systems. It may even be that "astrographic positions" made the home system even more vulnerable in future months based on planetary positions relative to the Junction.

That’s the thing. They didn’t need more than a couple of months to get Apollo ready. There was actually no need for delaying operations when the attacked Lovat. #
Haven wasn’t about to go for broke after Gobi. An attack was coming, sure, but Manticore can absorb anything but the loss of the yards. We know that without Lovat Theisman would have attacked Alizion with Op Camilie. A totally rational and predictable move. Push the numerical advantage further by defeating the RMN in detail.
But with Apollo coming up, this is all irrelevant. Haven can basically attack where it wants, even losing Trevor Star or Basilisk wont change the strategic picture once Eighth Fleet gets 40 Apollo capable wallers.
Noone was expecting something crazy like Beatrice. Everything short of something crazy like Beatrice will be strategically irrelevant within 4 tmonths. There is no need for showing them stuff to delay them.

What we do have is in the text after Solon is the strategic goal is still to prove to the war planners in Haven that "you really really don't want to do this. By showing Apollo they effectively say "we can hit you anywhere you want with impunity. You'll need all that new build construction to defend your key systems just to stop us...if you can". Secondarily, the counter-trap at Lovat was also designed to diminish the RHN "new build wall of battle" by every SD(p) in every formation, [to their knowledge perhaps 8-10% of the worked up ships) which is also a strategically and tactically sound idea all by itself.

The hole concept is seriously flawed.
First, as said, with Gobi Haven demonstrated a really major go for broke operation was not in the works. And why would it? Without Apollo, the numerical advantage would be massive by the end of 1921. Especially if the RMN continues to lose wallers in strategically unimportant star systems.
Second, by raiding at Lovat you actually demonstrate that you have less of the new stuff you would want. If you have enough of it, you don’t just attack at Lovat and then run back to Trevor Star. You attack at Lovat and then go directly to Haven to end things one and for all. Or you don’t attack at Lovat at all and go for Haven directly.
Screwing around like they did just invites Haven to do on last mad dash before the curtain falls.
Third, you are not worried about 10% of the enemies wall at Lovat when you plan to deploy against their home system within 4 tmonths.

That said, I'm not sure if the planned raid at Jouett makes sense (stellar cartography, perhaps?); I would have been loading up to take out Haven directly, because once the Apollo system defense pods are worked up, Eighth Fleet can be turned loose to do just that. Instead they're anchored to Trevor's Star as part of the defense and strategic reserve between offensive actions.

Had Beatrice not already been loaded up and nearly ready to go, it would have been an effective strategy.

If Theisman had not done his job just like the Manticoran Admiralty it would have been an effective strategy. At some point. Once they finally run out of strategically secondary targets to trash and go for Haven itself. The hole brainstorm about Jouett just underscores the point. They never got beyond their new found love for deep raiding.

--snipping--
Keep in mind, we're after-the-fact armchair admirals.

Star Knight wrote:

Sharkhunter wrote:...
That said, I'm not sure if the planned raid at Jouett makes sense (stellar cartography, perhaps?); I would have been loading up to take out Haven directly, because once the Apollo system defense pods are worked up, Eighth Fleet can be turned loose to do just that. Instead they're anchored to Trevor's Star as part of the defense and strategic reserve between offensive actions. Had Beatrice not already been loaded up and nearly ready to go, it would have been an effective strategy.

...
If Theisman had not done his job just like the Manticoran Admiralty it would have been an effective strategy. At some point. Once they finally run out of strategically secondary targets to trash and go for Haven itself. The hole brainstorm about Jouett just underscores the point. They never got beyond their new found love for deep raiding.

We probably agree about Jouett. But human and political realities might intrude into RFC's plot considerations. Consider what would have happened if 1) the Beatrice fleets weren't already assembled, and 2) if the RMN had executed the Jouett raid, (apparently a major Haven "core world).

It is very possible that instead of assembling an offensive strike force, Pritchart and Theisman would have been forced into a "citadel defense" by political problems even if it was ultimately a losing strategy, given the new weapon capabilities that they'd seen.

Keep in mind David doesn't say his characters always find the optimum strategies, or make the best or even correct command decisions. Even the top "cast members" make mistakes individually and collectively that come back to bite them in the arse, like in HotQ when Honor doesn't go after Saladin/Thunder of God immediately, or when Rozak doesn't open fire at a longer range against the PNE.

Or when Lee ordered Pickett's charge, the Allies ordered Operation Market Garden, or.... You get the idea.

SharkHunter wrote:We probably agree about Jouett. But human and political realities might intrude into RFC's plot considerations. Consider what would have happened if 1) the Beatrice fleets weren't already assembled, and 2) if the RMN had executed the Jouett raid, (apparently a major Haven "core world).

It is very possible that instead of assembling an offensive strike force, Pritchart and Theisman would have been forced into a "citadel defense" by political problems even if it was ultimately a losing strategy, given the new weapon capabilities that they'd seen.

The Options would have been the same. Throw everything at Manticore or surrender. Another Lovat wouldnt change the situation.
btw, it could have been a very interesting story to have Eighth Fleet attacking Jouett while the RHN wins at Manticore. Instead of surrendering Honor would go for Haven instead, winning there as well.

SharkHunter wrote:Keep in mind David doesn't say his characters always find the optimum strategies, or make the best or even correct command decisions. Even the top "cast members" make mistakes individually and collectively that come back to bite them in the arse, like in HotQ when Honor doesn't go after Saladin/Thunder of God immediately, or when Rozak doesn't open fire at a longer range against the PNE.

Or when Lee ordered Pickett's charge, the Allies ordered Operation Market Garden, or.... You get the idea.

I do, which is acutally my point. Even Manties are not perfect and they were some very questionable decisions during the second war. This is not bad, this is good storytelling if done well.

Whats bad is 300 wallers disappearing somewhere just because BoMa has to happen.
AAC is better than most of what came after it IMO, but the plot is just not progessing naturally in some instances.