Hunting the MAlignment: MWW Clue's

Weird Harold wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:... presumably the wormhole would have plenty economic uses, but if Manpower knew about those and didn't have some mighty compelling military reason to hide it from their secret masters, it'd've been exploited. But it's still a mystery what compelling military reason that may've been. If it's that this is the Alignment's best secret entrance near or into the Haven Sector... I'm not prepared to be impressed.

The reason for not advertising the route via the twins and Felix WHJ is that Mannerheim doesn't have clear title to the Felix system. Until there is clear title to the Felix System, it is necessary to keep the Torch wormhole's destination secret also -- for economic reasons that are at least as compelling as the military reason; that's why most people who know about the Felix WHJ think it only has two termini rather than its actual four. The routes to Darius and to Torch via the Twins can be hidden fairly easily from the Felix end, but can't be hidden at all from a successful exploration from the Torch end.

Mannerheim not having clear title to Felix yet is mostly another cover story, this time fed to the Mannerheim SDF personnel unaware of the Alignment, as a plausible pretext for keeping their mouths shut.

They do have a serious problem in waiting, as once they announce their new junction, I wouldn't be surprised if the RMAIA tried to send an expedition eventually(as in the post-League era). "We found seven on ours and we think there could be more than the two you've found on yours. Maybe as many as four or five. We'll find them if you give RMMM flagged ships a discount in their transit fees."

Even if Mannerheim managed to continuously turn the offer down, there'll be Manticoran merchantmen moving through the Felix junction. Even if it takes 200 more years(and that's still within Honor's lifetime!), the chain leading to Torch should be revealed, although of course exploration would be problematic with a hostile Mannerheim/RF.

That wormhole chain is a ticking time bomb under the Alignment's butt.

SWM wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:Really, no. It was discussing the possibility of Manpower or its masters using it instead of, or in addition to, the PNE attack.

My apologies, I worded it poorly. I meant that you had said that the attack in which StateSec was used as proxies should have been an assault through the wormhole instead. The point being, JohnRoth was specifically replying to the proposal of an assault through the wormhole back then, as opposed to now.

All right. So, there's a question of what assumptions Torch can make, both before OB and after it, which will differ. I'd been thinking in terms of the after OB analysis, and hadn't considered the before OB analysis.

I confess, at this point, I'd need to construct a diagram both to follow the thread with full confidence and to track reasonable decision making on Torch's part about the wormhole and implications thereof.

Previous discussion snipped for brevity

JohnRoth wrote:

fallsfromtrees wrote:Reason 5 - They have already staged a sneak attack on the civilian structures of another star system. The officers have to know what is going on. The actual troops manning the ships - not so much. They could still be told the same thing, we are attacking the evil empire, and have no way to verify the fact, just as they had no way to verify what happened to Manticore or Grayson.

No, they haven't. The Oyster Bay force leaves Darius in October, 1921, and Oyster Bay itself occurs in February 1922. The attack on Torch occurs in October 1921. The Oyster Bay task force returns to Darius in April, 1922.

That is for the case of the PNE attack. For a later attack (post April 1922), the reasoning is still valid - they have already executed one such attack.

I'm really no longer carrying the brunt of this argument, but...I am wondering about the reasons Pearl wasn't adequately alert and covered at the beginning of WW2. There are always adequate sounding reasons, you know.

The primary reason for a security chief of Torch to be concerned about the wormhole is the security of Torch. The primary reason for a security chief of Manticore to be concerned about the wormhole is to deny the MA, should they be out there, an easy route into the Haven Quadrant. Secondarily, the security of Torch would be of concern.

And were I the sneaky, nasty Alignment, I would be grateful to whatever powers that be for ignoring the clues laying about and leaving the wormhole there for me to use at my convenience...

Don

n7axw wrote:I'm really no longer carrying the brunt of this argument, but...I am wondering about the reasons Pearl wasn't adequately alert and covered at the beginning of WW2. There are always adequate sounding reasons, you know.

The primary reason for a security chief of Torch to be concerned about the wormhole is the security of Torch. The primary reason for a security chief of Manticore to be concerned about the wormhole is to deny the MA, should they be out there, an easy route into the Haven Quadrant. Secondarily, the security of Torch would be of concern.

And were I the sneaky, nasty Alignment, I would be grateful to whatever powers that be for ignoring the clues laying about and leaving the wormhole there for me to use at my convenience...

Don

There is NO NONE NADA reason for Torch to think that the MAlign is on the other side of the wormhole. You know it because RFC granted you a behind the scenes look. If all you knew was that Harvest Joy went into the wormhole, and never returned, you wouldn't be so hot to protect against the MAlign coming through it. The Malign way well be grateful for them ignoring it, but the first time they use it, unless they eliminate ALL witnesses to its use, it will blow the gaff, and provide the GA with an indication of what happened to Harvest Joy and how to get at the Malign. This makes it very much a double edged sword.

fallsfromtrees wrote:There is NO NONE NADA reason for Torch to think that the MAlign is on the other side of the wormhole.

Well, there was the rumor that the Torch Wormhole had been surveyed by Jessyk and had two termini, and the rumor that Manpower knew where the wormhole went but managed to destroy the data during the coup.

There is no concrete evidence that there is anyone hostile on the far end of the wormhole, but there are rumors that agencies known to be hostile to Torch may know more than Torch does about the Wormhole. That may not justify fortifications, but to any good paranoid it should suggest that the wormhole shouldn't be completely ignored.

fallsfromtrees wrote:

n7axw wrote:I'm really no longer carrying the brunt of this argument, but...I am wondering about the reasons Pearl wasn't adequately alert and covered at the beginning of WW2. There are always adequate sounding reasons, you know.

The primary reason for a security chief of Torch to be concerned about the wormhole is the security of Torch. The primary reason for a security chief of Manticore to be concerned about the wormhole is to deny the MA, should they be out there, an easy route into the Haven Quadrant. Secondarily, the security of Torch would be of concern.

And were I the sneaky, nasty Alignment, I would be grateful to whatever powers that be for ignoring the clues laying about and leaving the wormhole there for me to use at my convenience...

Don

There is NO NONE NADA reason for Torch to think that the MAlign is on the other side of the wormhole. You know it because RFC granted you a behind the scenes look. If all you knew was that Harvest Joy went into the wormhole, and never returned, you wouldn't be so hot to protect against the MAlign coming through it. The Malign way well be grateful for them ignoring it, but the first time they use it, unless they eliminate ALL witnesses to its use, it will blow the gaff, and provide the GA with an indication of what happened to Harvest Joy and how to get at the Malign. This makes it very much a double edged sword.

The wormhole can't be disconnected from Mesa's previous ownership of the planet or the interest it demonstrated in the system when it sent the SS orphans. The disappearance of Harvest Joy can only add to that perception. Sorry, my friend, I know you don't find that persuasive, but I'm only calling it the way I see it.

Don

n7axw wrote:I'm really no longer carrying the brunt of this argument, but...I am wondering about the reasons Pearl wasn't adequately alert and covered at the beginning of WW2. There are always adequate sounding reasons, you know.

If memory serves - and my sources are accurate, of course, and I'm always open to correction by those with more information - the concern at Pearl was for a Hawaiian uprising and/or Japanese saboteurs. That the Japanese would start a war halfway across the Pacific, without being detected on the way in, against a fleet in harbor - and if they did, that it'd be successful - was not taken seriously on account of being far more ambitious than expected of them. (Chalk that up to conventional wisdom and racism in whatever proportions.)

So, planes were packed in tightly together to keep better watch on them, which made them better targets for the impossible attack by bombers....

To the credit of the IJN, and to the partial excuse of the USN, the IJN had torpedoes built and well-tested for use in shallow waters like the harbor, and the full potential of large carrier strikes wasn't well-known from actual practice before then.

The primary reason for a security chief of Torch to be concerned about the wormhole is the security of Torch. The primary reason for a security chief of Manticore to be concerned about the wormhole is to deny the MA, should they be out there, an easy route into the Haven Quadrant. Secondarily, the security of Torch would be of concern.

And were I the sneaky, nasty Alignment, I would be grateful to whatever powers that be for ignoring the clues laying about and leaving the wormhole there for me to use at my convenience...

Don

Oh sure. And if it's merely a killer wormhole, you'd be grateful for their silly diversion of resources covering a non-existent threat when you pose a real one. Or even just soak up some frigate that's not being used violently against your pawns elsewhere. (Even a RTN frigate shaking down could be doing some light work against Manpower, like scouting a future target.)

If Manticore and/or Haven - or Erewhon, to take an ally far nearer by - has the resources to spare to cover the threat of the wormhole (which, compared to Torch, they certainly may), I'm sure Torch would be happy to let them keep some ship out there. It'd even be convenient as another source of professional advise for naval training nearby. If you can get someone else to pay for covering a remote concern when you are strapped for resources, rock on.

JeffEngel wrote:Heck, if you suppose the same Dark Lord is behind Oyster Bay, they could have done so without anyone knowing, at such time that the wormhole on Torch's end was not well watched. No messing about with the PNE - or if they had to, it could have been mere cover.

So since they didn't, there's more reason to think that that is not a well-explored wormhole with forces of the Dark Lord behind it - unless it is somehow more important to keep it a deeper, darker secret for some future nefarious purpose. And then stick a large portion of Torch's tiny navy out there in hopes that it would suffice to stop that. A detachment that, incidentally, could be picked off in detail easily, and would be unavailable to defend Torch itself in case of sudden attack.

I'd point out that ships transiting a wormhole are so vulnerable that even a minor diversion into defenses on it can make it unpalatable to attempt to force the wormhole.

Even something like 75 old SDM missile pods left over from the early part of the 1st Haven war (configured in autonomous "minefield mode") would be enough to shred up to 25 or so SDs attempting to force the wormhole. (No wedge, no sidewalls, no towed decoys, no CMs, no ability to maneuver, and no counter battery missile fire - just PDLC and armor against laserheads). Though you'd need to pull maintenance on them periodically.


But you're right that even this wormhole, a mere 64 lightminutes from the primary, is well beyond the hyperlimit and therefore vulnerable to pounces from hyper; you'd need a much tougher defense to hold it against an attack coming from that route. But simply sufficient defenses to seriously discourage people from using it uninvited (or without coming the long way through hyper to clear it first) is pretty cheap - cheap enough that it's a reasonable "cover your bases" action even if you think it's an unusable wormhole.

JeffEngel wrote:If memory serves - and my sources are accurate, of course, and I'm always open to correction by those with more information - the concern at Pearl was for a Hawaiian uprising and/or Japanese saboteurs. That the Japanese would start a war halfway across the Pacific, without being detected on the way in, against a fleet in harbor - and if they did, that it'd be successful - was not taken seriously on account of being far more ambitious than expected of them. (Chalk that up to conventional wisdom and racism in whatever proportions.)

I read something recently that implied it was also a bit of intel lag. Up until a few months before they launched the operation they didn't have the oilers and training necessary for the underway replenishment needed to get the task force from Japan to within striking range of Pearl Harbor. (And US Navy Intel apparently knew this). So they assumed (correctly as of, say early-mid '41) that Pearl Harbor was out of range until Japan seized some closer base to stage out of. (Which would provide plenty of notice to change Pearl's defensive posture - plus of course trigger the war in the Pacific)

But Intel didn't find out in time that this had changed and Japan now had the technical capability to send a strike that far from it's base.

Jonathan_S wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:Heck, if you suppose the same Dark Lord is behind Oyster Bay, they could have done so without anyone knowing, at such time that the wormhole on Torch's end was not well watched. No messing about with the PNE - or if they had to, it could have been mere cover.

So since they didn't, there's more reason to think that that is not a well-explored wormhole with forces of the Dark Lord behind it - unless it is somehow more important to keep it a deeper, darker secret for some future nefarious purpose. And then stick a large portion of Torch's tiny navy out there in hopes that it would suffice to stop that. A detachment that, incidentally, could be picked off in detail easily, and would be unavailable to defend Torch itself in case of sudden attack.

I'd point out that ships transiting a wormhole are so vulnerable that even a minor diversion into defenses on it can make it unpalatable to attempt to force the wormhole.

Even something like 75 old SDM missile pods left over from the early part of the 1st Haven war (configured in autonomous "minefield mode") would be enough to shred up to 25 or so SDs attempting to force the wormhole. (No wedge, no sidewalls, no towed decoys, no CMs, no ability to maneuver, and no counter battery missile fire - just PDLC and armor against laserheads). Though you'd need to pull maintenance on them periodically.


But you're right that even this wormhole, a mere 64 lightminutes from the primary, is well beyond the hyperlimit and therefore vulnerable to pounces from hyper; you'd need a much tougher defense to hold it against an attack coming from that route. But simply sufficient defenses to seriously discourage people from using it uninvited (or without coming the long way through hyper to clear it first) is pretty cheap - cheap enough that it's a reasonable "cover your bases" action even if you think it's an unusable wormhole.

JeffEngel wrote:If memory serves - and my sources are accurate, of course, and I'm always open to correction by those with more information - the concern at Pearl was for a Hawaiian uprising and/or Japanese saboteurs. That the Japanese would start a war halfway across the Pacific, without being detected on the way in, against a fleet in harbor - and if they did, that it'd be successful - was not taken seriously on account of being far more ambitious than expected of them. (Chalk that up to conventional wisdom and racism in whatever proportions.)

I read something recently that implied it was also a bit of intel lag. Up until a few months before they launched the operation they didn't have the oilers and training necessary for the underway replenishment needed to get the task force from Japan to within striking range of Pearl Harbor. (And US Navy Intel apparently knew this). So they assumed (correctly as of, say early-mid '41) that Pearl Harbor was out of range until Japan seized some closer base to stage out of. (Which would provide plenty of notice to change Pearl's defensive posture - plus of course trigger the war in the Pacific)

But Intel didn't find out in time that this had changed and Japan now had the technical capability to send a strike that far from it's base.

The point I was making by mentioning Pearl was that they aimed at the wrong concern. When things go wrong, there is almost always an intel lag. You simply can't count on having all the info you need, no matter how good you are or how hard you try.

Don