Best use of the Agamemnons (BC(P))--and other Ships

SWM wrote:You misunderstand. I'm not saying that Zanzibar or the others would jump ship. I'm saying that the Manticoran Alliance was very specifically an alliance against the Republic of Haven. The Manticoran Alliance no longer exists. I say that Manticore herself would suggest that these small allies should stay neutral in the current war with the Solarian League.

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A good point; the issue of having the smaller systems pull out of the alliance already came up in text; with the shift to deep raids, defending them had become a liability. Some were suggesting Manticore let them leave. Also, that Haven might not let them be neutral. Then, the topic dropped.

Another good point was the sheer distance from the League, and whether Kingsford would send units that far, when his transtellers and the Mandarins need a victory button NOW. And how news of Saltash plays into that. We didn't see them get that bit of news yet.

Rob

SWM wrote:Apparently, a lot of you think the League, or perhaps just the Mandarins, are a lot more insane than I do. They aren't insane. They have no reason to attack neutrals. It won't help them in the fight against Manticore, it won't weaken Manticore, it will waste their own forces, it will make all of their own trading partners (who are also neutral) extremely nervous, and it will anger their own constituents. Using the war with Manticore as an excuse to invade neutral star nations on the far side of Manticore is tantamount to declaring to the galaxy at large and their own member systems that the League has decided on military conquest of the galaxy.

I may have led you to a misunderstanding of my intent; let me explain further.

I concur with you in that I don't think the SL is interested in conquering possibly neutral systems; I do believe that they are interested (based on ART) in raiding (and destroying) Mantie shipping.

And since raiding places like Grayson or Spindle or Lynx would end...badly...and SEM Silesia and Haven is a long hyperspace trip away, trying to pick off freighters at nominally 'neutral' sites will appeal to more than one ISLN Admiral, IMHO.

After all, that is about the only shot Kingsford has--cause enough chaos in the Verge and other systems to make the GA pause and 'retrench', buying time for the SL to come up with some type of counter to the GA tech lead.

As I said earlier, it probably won't work, for besides the Manties not falling for it, the Protectorates and Verge (and probably the Shell) are going to blow a gasket any second now and FF will have more to worry about once the GA starts hitting their bases.

We shall see, eventually,

Hutch wrote:

SWM wrote:Apparently, a lot of you think the League, or perhaps just the Mandarins, are a lot more insane than I do. They aren't insane. They have no reason to attack neutrals. It won't help them in the fight against Manticore, it won't weaken Manticore, it will waste their own forces, it will make all of their own trading partners (who are also neutral) extremely nervous, and it will anger their own constituents. Using the war with Manticore as an excuse to invade neutral star nations on the far side of Manticore is tantamount to declaring to the galaxy at large and their own member systems that the League has decided on military conquest of the galaxy.

I may have led you to a misunderstanding of my intent; let me explain further.

I concur with you in that I don't think the SL is interested in conquering possibly neutral systems; I do believe that they are interested (based on ART) in raiding (and destroying) Mantie shipping.

And since raiding places like Grayson or Spindle or Lynx would end...badly...and SEM Silesia and Haven is a long hyperspace trip away, trying to pick off freighters at nominally 'neutral' sites will appeal to more than one ISLN Admiral, IMHO.

After all, that is about the only shot Kingsford has--cause enough chaos in the Verge and other systems to make the GA pause and 'retrench', buying time for the SL to come up with some type of counter to the GA tech lead.

As I said earlier, it probably won't work, for besides the Manties not falling for it, the Protectorates and Verge (and probably the Shell) are going to blow a gasket any second now and FF will have more to worry about once the GA starts hitting their bases.

We shall see, eventually,

Ah, that's a completely different matter. Sure, the League will try targeting Manticoran shipping, but that has nothing specifically to do with the small members of the Manticoran Alliance; they'll be just like all the other small systems that Manticore trades with. Manticore will be protecting Manticoran shipping, of course. But that does not involve guarding the neutral systems that Manticore trades with. The premise I was arguing against was that Manticore would have to expend energy protecting it's old allies like Zanzibar. If those systems are neutral, then Manticore can concentrate on protecting its shipping.

SharkHunter wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hi Hutch, You are making some valid points here. But the Solly BCs will be a looong way from home without any support. Do you think they will raid that far afield?

Still the Alliance would have to do something about it. I wonder if it could be pre-empted by the same sort of defenses tha Manticore is using in the quadrant...Don

[corrections mine]
I think once missile production goes back online, yes, but boy, it's interesting to think about "in the mean time". I'm thinking more along the lines of the CLAC/Ammo ship/ BC-whatever in the meantime, with the BC-whatevers being rotated in and out. For example, some of the systems could be used as minor "work/re-work up areas" from the Hancock repair base, before the BC- is moved to a more active location.

IIRC, getting missile production up wasn't going to take all that long. In his after action report to the cabinet in the wake of OB, Hamish estimates ?6? months?? I don't have the exact detail, but by the end of COG, missiles should be coming off the line again, although not in the volume that they were prior to OB.

Don

I was just thinking about that system where Tourville hid his fleet prior to his attack on Sidemore.

I wonder if the League might be tempted to establish a forward base in an isolated part of the Haven Quadrant where there wouldn't be any reason for anybody else to go for the purpose or refueling and maintaining the raiding forces they intend to use to pester the GA...

Don

n7axw wrote:I was just thinking about that system where Tourville hid his fleet prior to his attack on Sidemore.

I wonder if the League might be tempted to establish a forward base in an isolated part of the Haven Quadrant where there wouldn't be any reason for anybody else to go for the purpose or refueling and maintaining the raiding forces they intend to use to pester the GA...

Don

Time, time, time. Whatever Kingsford may plan, without the wormhole network available to the SLN, the Haven Quadrant, Manticore, the systems near Manticore, Silesia, they're all too far out to reach and raid quickly. Filareta was pre-placed and rushed out (as much as the dinosaur can rush) for "Operation Raging Justice", and Manticore still saw him coming long, long ahead and had a lot of back-and-forth trying to get his masters to update his orders because of how terribly out of the loop he was.

Now, every bit of the SLN is either far from Earth, far from Manticore, or both. Silesia's further out. Manticore's neighbors are, naturally, near Manticore. Haven, near Manticore. The closest lobe they can reach is Talbott, the likeliest place to launch one of those attacks is Meyers, and whether Earth knows it or not, its writ no longer runs there. For that matter, if it's got plans of moving to Visigoth-Mesa-Talbott, it's going to run into troubles before long on that route.

There are plenty of wormhole termini now in RMN hands they can poke. And they can send raiders all over known space - and if the raiders are still around when their orders even reach them, those raiders are likely to arrive at their targets and be told that the "nation" that sent them just doesn't exist anymore.

SWM wrote:Apparently, a lot of you think the League, or perhaps just the Mandarins, are a lot more insane than I do. They aren't insane. They have no reason to attack neutrals. It won't help them in the fight against Manticore, it won't weaken Manticore, it will waste their own forces, it will make all of their own trading partners (who are also neutral) extremely nervous, and it will anger their own constituents. Using the war with Manticore as an excuse to invade neutral star nations on the far side of Manticore is tantamount to declaring to the galaxy at large and their own member systems that the League has decided on military conquest of the galaxy.

SharkHunter wrote:
No, we're arguing that Zanzibar isn't going to jump ship from a polity that has for the most part treated them fairly and spilled blood in their defense. Solarian League wise...

Why "golly gee whiz, all of a sudden FF got uppity and started invading systems", me the man in the street and all of these planets object!! Except one minor detail. They've been doing it in collusion with the OFS for centuries, and Manticore controls a big chunk of the only high speed way for anyone to find out -- the wormholes. So most of the SL will never find out if FF tries to whack an alliance partner.

But here's the Mandarin's spin: "We weren't invading Zanzibar, we were pursuing those dastardly Manticorans who killed off 2 million of our noble innocent crews for no good reason. It's not OUR fault that the RMN is defending some one else's star system! Oh, and once we take over, we can make that system an OFS protectorate no longer bullied by those danged imperialistic neobarbs".

SWM wrote:You misunderstand. I'm not saying that Zanzibar or the others would jump ship. I'm saying that the Manticoran Alliance was very specifically an alliance against the Republic of Haven. The Manticoran Alliance no longer exists. I say that Manticore herself would suggest that these small allies should stay neutral in the current war with the Solarian League.

The League cannot claim that they are merely chasing the Manticorans into Zanzibar if the Manticorans aren't defending Zanzibar. That's my whole point. If the small systems are neutral in this war, they don't need to be defended, and there is no reason for the League to touch them.

Sure, the League has been using the OFS to infiltrate and take over sections of the Verge. But they have never simply invaded a system without pretext. If these systems are neutral, there is no pretext. Nothing for the League to hide behind.

The the League would never, ever manufacture a pretext, because they are such upstanding citizens of the galaxy.

If the League says you're not really a neutral, then they have the pretext. Or they stage a Case Buccaneer, and move in to "protect" said former ally from the evil Manticore empire, who had obviously forced them into alliance earlier, and was now just pretending that they were not allies. It's called the principle of the Big Lie - if you make the claim outrageous enough people will believe it because "no one would make up something like that".

In fact, a major part of the impetus for the TQ to join the SEM was because they feared that OFS was going to do just that - move in on them without any pretext (that hadn't been manufactured). If that doesn't constitute an invasion without pretext, I don't know what does.

fallsfromtrees wrote:

SWM wrote:You misunderstand. I'm not saying that Zanzibar or the others would jump ship. I'm saying that the Manticoran Alliance was very specifically an alliance against the Republic of Haven. The Manticoran Alliance no longer exists. I say that Manticore herself would suggest that these small allies should stay neutral in the current war with the Solarian League.

The League cannot claim that they are merely chasing the Manticorans into Zanzibar if the Manticorans aren't defending Zanzibar. That's my whole point. If the small systems are neutral in this war, they don't need to be defended, and there is no reason for the League to touch them.

Sure, the League has been using the OFS to infiltrate and take over sections of the Verge. But they have never simply invaded a system without pretext. If these systems are neutral, there is no pretext. Nothing for the League to hide behind.

The the League would never, ever manufacture a pretext, because they are such upstanding citizens of the galaxy.

If the League says you're not really a neutral, then they have the pretext. Or they stage a Case Buccaneer, and move in to "protect" said former ally from the evil Manticore empire, who had obviously forced them into alliance earlier, and was now just pretending that they were not allies. It's called the principle of the Big Lie - if you make the claim outrageous enough people will believe it because "no one would make up something like that".

In fact, a major part of the impetus for the TQ to join the SEM was because they feared that OFS was going to do just that - move in on them without any pretext (that hadn't been manufactured). If that doesn't constitute an invasion without pretext, I don't know what does.

Yes, sure, the League could create a pretext. But--if those star nations are neutral, why would the League do that?

My point is that there should be no reason for the League to go after those systems. They have enough to do just trying to strike a blow at Manticore or its shipping. If Zanzibar and the other small members of the Manticoran Alliance declare themselves on the side of Manticore against the League, then the League will certainly try to go after them. If those systems declare themselves neutral, there is no reason for the League to do that while it is struggling against Manticore. It would be a waste of their forces.

SWM wrote:My point is that there should be no reason for the League to go after those systems. They have enough to do just trying to strike a blow at Manticore or its shipping. If Zanzibar and the other small members of the Manticoran Alliance declare themselves on the side of Manticore against the League, then the League will certainly try to go after them. If those systems declare themselves neutral, there is no reason for the League to do that while it is struggling against Manticore. It would be a waste of their forces.

The SLN is in need of "Victories" the Mandarins can use as propaganda fodder to hold the wolf-at-the-door at bay. A small detail like "former" when attacking an "ally" of Manticore wouldn't even slow them down, let alone stop them.

Attacking small, former, allies of Manticore would probably be seen as the safest route to providing the victories needed. Most of the former allies are much tougher opponents than the SLN thinks they are.

It would not surprise me in the least to see at least one FF Task Group (looking for an easy victory) hammered to scrap by a former member of the Manticoran Alliance.

Weird Harold wrote:

SWM wrote:My point is that there should be no reason for the League to go after those systems. They have enough to do just trying to strike a blow at Manticore or its shipping. If Zanzibar and the other small members of the Manticoran Alliance declare themselves on the side of Manticore against the League, then the League will certainly try to go after them. If those systems declare themselves neutral, there is no reason for the League to do that while it is struggling against Manticore. It would be a waste of their forces.

The SLN is in need of "Victories" the Mandarins can use as propaganda fodder to hold the wolf-at-the-door at bay. A small detail like "former" when attacking an "ally" of Manticore wouldn't even slow them down, let alone stop them.

Attacking small, former, allies of Manticore would probably be seen as the safest route to providing the victories needed. Most of the former allies are much tougher opponents than the SLN thinks they are.

It would not surprise me in the least to see at least one FF Task Group (looking for an easy victory) hammered to scrap by a former member of the Manticoran Alliance.

Beat me to it.