Question about Beowulf tactics

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think I have to side with the point of view that says that what the Mandarins think or say is no longer very important. The critical political issue focuses on the citizens of Beowulf, not the League. You don't want anyone pressured into voting for the sucession due to the presense of GA warships.

There is a very pertinent reason to worry about "what the Mandarins say" -- it's called "Waving The Bloody Shirt." The GA CANNOT do anything that will unite the Solarian League membership or allow the Mandarins' propaganda machine the opportunity to spin something that will allow them to "paper over" the fracture lines the GA and MAlign both want to exploit and expand.

Long may the bloody red shirt wave... For the vast majority of the League's worlds won't even see the thing flapping in the breeze and the majority of those who do won't care one way or the other. The Mandarin's propaganda is aimed at a comparatively small group of people, the ones whom they believe matter which is only a small part of the League.

The equation changes abruptly were that an attack on old earth. That would provide that rallying point you're worried about. But as for the rest? I doubt that it matters too much one way or the other, especially given Manticore's control of the wormholes.

Don

n7axw wrote:The equation changes abruptly were that an attack on old earth. That would provide that rallying point you're worried about. But as for the rest? I doubt that it matters too much one way or the other, especially given Manticore's control of the wormholes.

It's been pretty well established that the SL management has pretty much complete control of the media across the entire SL. They will tell whatever story they are told to tell.

At least until the MA decides to change that, because they actually control the people in the SL who the mandarins have placed in charge of the media, plus the MA directly runs some of the major media outlets and they also own some of the "independent media" that people in the SL who distrust the SL government pay attention to.

You'll note that none of these are fans of the SEM or the RHN.

n7axw wrote:Long may the bloody red shirt wave... For the vast majority of the League's worlds won't even see the thing flapping in the breeze and the majority of those who do won't care one way or the other. The Mandarin's propaganda is aimed at a comparatively small group of people, the ones whom they believe matter which is only a small part of the League.

As kzt noted, the Mandarins pretty much control the media; they can expand the range/targeting of their propaganda as soon as they see a need to do so.

n7axw wrote:The equation changes abruptly were that an attack on old earth. That would provide that rallying point you're worried about. But as for the rest? I doubt that it matters too much one way or the other, especially given Manticore's control of the wormholes.

Don

The Mandarins can influence Core worlds almost as fast as Manticore can, and those are the systems most likely to paper over fault-lines. Shell and Protectorates are where the GA has the information advantage. Those are also the worlds most likely to see the GA as liberators instead of conquistadors. The can pretty much destroy Frontier Fleet and OFS at will without stirring up the core worlds at all.

Whatever the level of "information advantage" might be, the GA cannot afford to give the Mandarins any freebies in the propaganda war. They have to err on the side of caution and avoid any action that might make even one SL member reluctant to secede.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:Long may the bloody red shirt wave... For the vast majority of the League's worlds won't even see the thing flapping in the breeze and the majority of those who do won't care one way or the other. The Mandarin's propaganda is aimed at a comparatively small group of people, the ones whom they believe matter which is only a small part of the League.

As kzt noted, the Mandarins pretty much control the media; they can expand the range/targeting of their propaganda as soon as they see a need to do so.

I suspect the Mandarin's media control is about as secure as the SLN's control of space and on similar bases: they're the ones perceived as having the power, so people comply. If you buck the Mandarins' system, you get punished. For media types, that will mean reduction of access, being cut out by the Mandarins' allied transtellars, etc.

What happens when access to other sources (Beowulf, Manticore) becomes genuinely important? Or when those transtellars want to cover their bases and not alienate independence-minded star systems or Manticore more than they have to?

What happens when yesterday's unthinkable becomes today's definite possibility and threatens to become tomorrow's fact of life?

At that point, actual bloody shirts would be something the Mandarins could still wave, but the other side's real bloody shirts couldn't be suppressed anymore, and fake ones couldn't be made up and reliably waved.

It's an open question whether or not the Mandarins are waking up to the unthinkable that way, but they do know that at least some transtellars are wondering what they are up to and using the Prime Minister to find out and signal displeasure.

kzt wrote:

n7axw wrote:The equation changes abruptly were that an attack on old earth. That would provide that rallying point you're worried about. But as for the rest? I doubt that it matters too much one way or the other, especially given Manticore's control of the wormholes.

It's been pretty well established that the SL management has pretty much complete control of the media across the entire SL. They will tell whatever story they are told to tell.

At least until the MA decides to change that, because they actually control the people in the SL who the mandarins have placed in charge of the media, plus the MA directly runs some of the major media outlets and they also own some of the "independent media" that people in the SL who distrust the SL government pay attention to.

You'll note that none of these are fans of the SEM or the RHN.

The MA controls -some- of the people in the media, not all and as soon as those people start saying things the Mandarins don't like, their licenses will come -under review-. The Mandarins control the agencies that control the media and that is enough to keep the media in line, even with MA interference.

kzt wrote:

n7axw wrote:The equation changes abruptly were that an attack on old earth. That would provide that rallying point you're worried about. But as for the rest? I doubt that it matters too much one way or the other, especially given Manticore's control of the wormholes.

It's been pretty well established that the SL management has pretty much complete control of the media across the entire SL. They will tell whatever story they are told to tell.

At least until the MA decides to change that, because they actually control the people in the SL who the mandarins have placed in charge of the media, plus the MA directly runs some of the major media outlets and they also own some of the "independent media" that people in the SL who distrust the SL government pay attention to.

You'll note that none of these are fans of the SEM or the RHN.

Ah, yes. They control O'Hanrahan (sp) with an iron fist, right? I suspect that they can reward and punish by how they pass out info, but that is about it. We are not looking at a totalatarian system here. We are looking at a grease the skids system that only functions as long as the skids agree to be greased.

The League is not a tightly knit star nation commanding the loyalty of its people. Even on the core worlds, most loyalty is local with the League supported because it seems to work. If it turns out to be not working, well...

I suspect that what would perk through a lot of minds if the SLN sends out a taskforce wouldn't be why did those nasty Manties interdict them... It would be I wonder why that task force was out there to start with... I wonder if a task force would make a call on us were we to have a sucession vote...

Don

n7axw wrote:I suspect that what would perk through a lot of minds if the SLN sends out a taskforce wouldn't be why did those nasty Manties interdict them... It would be I wonder why that task force was out there to start with... I wonder if a task force would make a call on us were we to have a sucession vote...

Read a little about how the Russian media portrays their offensive in Ukraine. And how the average Russian feels about it.

kzt wrote:

n7axw wrote:I suspect that what would perk through a lot of minds if the SLN sends out a taskforce wouldn't be why did those nasty Manties interdict them... It would be I wonder why that task force was out there to start with... I wonder if a task force would make a call on us were we to have a sucession vote...

Read a little about how the Russian media portrays their offensive in Ukraine. And how the average Russian feels about it.

But kzt, the comparison isn't comparable, rendering your suggestion irrelavant. Russia no longer has independent media. Russia does have a national identity. Russia has a secret police that goes around disappearing people.

None of this is really true for the League. The League, whatever its faults, is not running a police state, although they can scarcely be called a representative democracy. The League does have its designated shovelers of bull crap, but also its internal critics. Further, the League is made up of states which consider themselves sovereign and who believe that they have the right to leave the League should they want to do so. Many of these states are healthy democracies with lively press and political traditions that are way more important and immediate to their people than a very distant League.

What this means is move away from the center in Old Chicago and the Mandrains ability to influence and control people and events drops off dramatically. Loyalty is mostly to whatever planet or political entity people belong to and to the League only as long as it works.

Are they about to stand around watching their economies go down the crapper when the GA comes by offering access to the wormholes and commercial relationships to get their economies moving again after it's been demonstrated that the League can no longer even provide protection? Nope. Are they going to spend a whole lot of time worrying about how Manticore has its fleet positioned during Beowulf's plebicite when they have far more immediate problems of their own to deal with? Nope.

The Mandrains don't realize it yet, although by the end of ART they are starting to get a clue, but the train has already left the station. All of the lies, all of the spin doctoring, all of the propaganda coming out of Old Chicago is not going to change that. Humpty Dumpty has fallen off of the wall.

Don

n7axw wrote:Are they about to stand around watching their economies go down the crapper when the GA comes by offering access to the wormholes and commercial relationships to get their economies moving again after it's been demonstrated that the League can no longer even provide protection? Nope. Are they going to spend a whole lot of time worrying about how Manticore has its fleet positioned during Beowulf's plebicite when they have far more immediate problems of their own to deal with? Nope.

The Mandrains don't realize it yet, although by the end of ART they are starting to get a clue, but the train has already left the station. All of the lies, all of the spin doctoring, all of the propaganda coming out of Old Chicago is not going to change that. Humpty Dumpty has fallen off of the wall.

Don

System economies are and will remain in vastly better condition than the League's coffers and confidence. For vital goods and services, just about any system in self-sufficient. There may be some that choose to import a significant chunk of their food, raw materials of various sorts, and industrial equipment, but that's purely optional and a luxury for all but some tiny minority. So star systems with interstellar commerce and travel jacked up are doing all right. Oh, they'll notice - it's news - and being unable to move their specialty products or get them from elsewhere will be frustrating. But it's not going to be a crisis. (Old Earth had better start work on a whole lot of victory gardens though, given the swollen population.)

The League, on the other hand, gets by taxing that relatively thin film of interstellar trade and hitting up protectorates. The League's unable to breathe, eat, or communicate effectively among its parts now. It'd have to compel people with slow-moving fleets in violation of its constitution to give it resources on another basis, when it is proving it cannot do anything good with them but cause trouble, and someone else can do a lot more compelling if push comes to shove.

The League isn't going to be carrying system economies down the crapper. They get to watch from the lip of the bowl, suffering nothing more than a light splashing. In the Core, they'll just have to worry about making alternative arrangements for system defense and the protection of that pleasant interstellar trade. In the protectorates, they'll get to have their own economies and governments back, and really have to see about those alternative arrangements for defense and re-establishing interstellar trade on a basis other than being systematically ripped off.

n7axw wrote:None of this is really true for the League. The League, whatever its faults, is not running a police state, ...

What would you call the OFS Protectorates and (to some extent) the Shell Worlds?

We really don't know anything about Core Worlds except for Beowulf, but the Mandarins' meetings and plots read very much like the Committee Of Public Safety's and/or the Legislaturalists' meetings and plots.