Question about Beowulf tactics

I think I have to side with the point of view that says that what the Mandarins think or say is no longer very important. The critical political issue focuses on the citizens of Beowulf, not the League. You don't want anyone pressured into voting for the sucession due to the presense of GA warships.

Can the GA win a war with the League militarily? Yes. They can. They can move in, destroy the League's military support structure without worrying about effective opposition, demonstrating to League worlds that the League can no longer protect them. Most certainly this does have a political and diplomatic vector as the GA offers trade and defensive treaties to individual systems. But that is military victory against the League.

What the GA cannot do is effectively occupy the League. It is too vast for that.

Don

n7axw wrote:I think I have to side with the point of view that says that what the Mandarins think or say is no longer very important. The critical political issue focuses on the citizens of Beowulf, not the League. You don't want anyone pressured into voting for the sucession due to the presense of GA warships.

There is a very pertinent reason to worry about "what the Mandarins say" -- it's called "Waving The Bloody Shirt." The GA CANNOT do anything that will unite the Solarian League membership or allow the Mandarins' propaganda machine the opportunity to spin something that will allow them to "paper over" the fracture lines the GA and MAlign both want to exploit and expand.

n7axw wrote:What the GA cannot do is effectively occupy the League. It is too vast for that.

Manticore couldn't effectively occupy the League. The GA, though, might be able to manage it. The Republic of Haven is quite large.

drothgery wrote:

n7axw wrote:What the GA cannot do is effectively occupy the League. It is too vast for that.

Manticore couldn't effectively occupy the League. The GA, though, might be able to manage it. The Republic of Haven is quite large.

No. Not even with the GA, and the Andermani Empire, could they successfully occupy and control the SL. It is too vast, even with Haven's help (Haven has about 150 systems, compared to several -thousand- of the SL). Sooner or later, the parts of the SL fighting (possibly a guerrilla/asymmetrical war) would get enough R&D done and make one or more 'Boltholes', then it would be the end of the GA as the League worlds would be freed one at a time and willingly, gladly, rejoin the SL to push back the barbarians that nearly destroyed the SL and occupied most of its systems.

Zakharra wrote: No. Not even with the GA, and the Andermani Empire, could they successfully occupy and control the SL. It is too vast, even with Haven's help (Haven has about 150 systems, compared to several -thousand- of the SL). Sooner or later, the parts of the SL fighting (possibly a guerrilla/asymmetrical war) would get enough R&D done and make one or more 'Boltholes', then it would be the end of the GA as the League worlds would be freed one at a time and willingly, gladly, rejoin the SL to push back the barbarians that nearly destroyed the SL and occupied most of its systems.

That's the kicker, which is that it seems like most of the "League" is pretty much asleep at the wheel, and it behooves Manticore to keep it that way. The really big question is "can you do something wonderful and not rouse the dragon(s), thereby not getting burned". Given that the most malignant parts of the League (OFS areas backed by FF) are the ones most likely needing and about to get smacked, would the core worlds, etc. be all that driven to develop Boltholes, etc. if the "new management" is better than the old management ever was?

Let me give you a better example. Suppose Spanish speaking -UberForce 2020 suddenly took over everything south of the USA border down to say Brazil, cleaned out the drug lords, corrupted corps, oligarchs, dictators, etc. and came up with a "United Central American Republic of _______".

Heck, we'll even say they took over the Canal zone (arguably a "wet navy wormhole junction", yes?), built another Nicaraguan canal as planned, and life is better for all parties concerned. Then they got uppity and did the same thing to the tiny but less successful entities in the Gulf of Mexico, such as Haiti, Cuba, etc. and they now have all of the big guns north of Brazil & Ecuador, etc. (let's make that the Haven Sector in terms of positioning) and the USA (the SL core worlds, half asleep)

Meanwhile, over in Africa, same thing happens, Southeast Asia's small nations form a strong confederacy, yada yada yada.

Do you really think Europe, Brazil & South, or the Norte Americano's are all that interested in messing with a single group (or groups) that are much more protective of human rights, wiped out the drug and sex-slave trades in their areas, promote education, etc. better than prior management ever did, or that Belize is going to decide to "Bolthole" the UberForces because Brazil (or whomever) supplied the weaponry?

Zakharra wrote:No. Not even with the GA, and the Andermani Empire, could they successfully occupy and control the SL. It is too vast, even with Haven's help (Haven has about 150 systems, compared to several -thousand- of the SL).

It's only technically several thousand. It's a little less than two thousand if you assume no defections (either to other side ala Beowulf or just to neutrality), not counting the protectorates. The entire GA is at least 300 if you include the Andies, possibly more. 10:1 ratios have been managed historically given a large enough tech advantage.

drothgery wrote: 10:1 ratios have been managed historically given a large enough tech advantage.

That may be true, but the tech advantage between the GA and the SL is a whole lot smaller than the tech difference between RMN and the SLN.

drothgery wrote:

Zakharra wrote:No. Not even with the GA, and the Andermani Empire, could they successfully occupy and control the SL. It is too vast, even with Haven's help (Haven has about 150 systems, compared to several -thousand- of the SL).

It's only technically several thousand. It's a little less than two thousand if you assume no defections (either to other side ala Beowulf or just to neutrality), not counting the protectorates. The entire GA is at least 300 if you include the Andies, possibly more. 10:1 ratios have been managed historically given a large enough tech advantage.

-------------------

Remember back to Honor's comment about the SLN -- the need to break-up the league and establish trade relationships with the successor states to prevent the league from re-forming.
We have discussed this as the "Harrington Doctrine" -- no need to provide occupation forces with a boot on the neck of the defeated.

-- Stewart

drothgery wrote:

Zakharra wrote:No. Not even with the GA, and the Andermani Empire, could they successfully occupy and control the SL. It is too vast, even with Haven's help (Haven has about 150 systems, compared to several -thousand- of the SL).

It's only technically several thousand. It's a little less than two thousand if you assume no defections (either to other side ala Beowulf or just to neutrality), not counting the protectorates. The entire GA is at least 300 if you include the Andies, possibly more. 10:1 ratios have been managed historically given a large enough tech advantage.

The problem is that even with those numbers, at the planning session in one of the last books. ART I believe, it is flat out stated that there is no way, absolutely -no- way, the GA can garrison all or even a majority of the SL worlds and keep them pacified for long if the SL worlds are resisting and hostile to the GA. Sooner or later, the military disparity of technology would be erased and the resisting systems -would- find some way to defeat and throw off the occupiers and turn the tide militarily, enough they would steamroll the GA into the ground. Manticore and the GA at large knows its military superiority is only temporary. Other systems, other stellar polities will get their hands on the tech and be able to match and/or overcome the GA's military advantage.

That's the GA's problem, to break up the SL in such a way it -doesn't- piss off the SL population enough they will want revenge. So the GA openly helping Beowulf in the form of giving them ships is a no-no. Missiles and pods are one thing, warships are something else entirely and the Ga (SEM in particular) are scrambling to make the secession vote to be as fair as possible and make it -damned- hard to spin it as the SEM pressuring the vote.

That's the kicker, which is that it seems like most of the "League" is pretty much asleep at the wheel, and it behooves Manticore to keep it that way. The really big question is "can you do something wonderful and not rouse the dragon(s), thereby not getting burned". Given that the most malignant parts of the League (OFS areas backed by FF) are the ones most likely needing and about to get smacked, would the core worlds, etc. be all that driven to develop Boltholes, etc. if the "new management" is better than the old management ever was?

Let me give you a better example. Suppose Spanish speaking -UberForce 2020 suddenly took over everything south of the USA border down to say Brazil, cleaned out the drug lords, corrupted corps, oligarchs, dictators, etc. and came up with a "United Central American Republic of _______".

Heck, we'll even say they took over the Canal zone (arguably a "wet navy wormhole junction", yes?), built another Nicaraguan canal as planned, and life is better for all parties concerned. Then they got uppity and did the same thing to the tiny but less successful entities in the Gulf of Mexico, such as Haiti, Cuba, etc. and they now have all of the big guns north of Brazil & Ecuador, etc. (let's make that the Haven Sector in terms of positioning) and the USA (the SL core worlds, half asleep)

Meanwhile, over in Africa, same thing happens, Southeast Asia's small nations form a strong confederacy, yada yada yada.

Do you really think Europe, Brazil & South, or the Norte Americano's are all that interested in messing with a single group (or groups) that are much more protective of human rights, wiped out the drug and sex-slave trades in their areas, promote education, etc. better than prior management ever did, or that Belize is going to decide to "Bolthole" the UberForces because Brazil (or whomever) supplied the weaponry?

Agreed, Doing it without pissing off the rest of the SL (especially the heavily populated and industrialized Core and Shell systems) is going to be difficult at the best. Since any attack on those systems to destroy SLN assets, including shipyards, -will- directly impact the system's economy and ability to defend itself. It's a very very fine line the GA will be treading. On one hand they will say they are punishing the SL/SLN, but on the other hand the GA is the reason those systems and the SL economy is being hammered into the ground. It is kind of hard to be pleased at working or being allied with the polity that is responsible for your nation's downfall and/or economic collapse (or near so).


It would depend how they did it. If by military force, then the countries being taken over would probably ask for and get aid from the US, Europe, China or Russia. I can't imagine any of them, in Central America or Africa, or SE Asia) joining any such group willingly, not without being forced, ie conquered. Given the different cultures, it would have to be force that was used to merge the nations into regional groups.

Zakharra wrote:<SNIP>
That's the GA's problem, to break up the SL in such a way it -doesn't- piss off the SL population enough they will want revenge. So the GA openly helping Beowulf in the form of giving them ships is a no-no. Missiles and pods are one thing, warships are something else entirely and the Ga (SEM in particular) are scrambling to make the secession vote to be as fair as possible and make it -damned- hard to spin it as the SEM pressuring the vote.
<SNIP>

It is also worth noting that Manticore doesn't want the people of Beowulf to feel they are being coerced. That would be very bad.