The Grand Alliance Grand Attack

SharkHunter wrote:Three bits.... who captured Mesa? 10th Fleet.
Why not the Andermani? 10th Fleet got their first.

Here's my logic, totally not calendar based. When Zilwicki arrives back in the Star Kingdom, Honor tells him that Manticore already has word and that Cachat & co are safe, but only the highest echelons in the SEM know about it. I think that precludes time enough for word to go from Mesa back to the Andermani and then to Manticore. Likely the SEM at that point dispatched a courier to the Gregor terminus to get word to Rabenstrange and the IAN to "don't worry about the planet, we got that -- but the true bad guys aren't here anymore".

Visigoth Terminus? captured and "we the reader" haven't heard about it yet, or maybe not quite as of PD1921/current plot points. I don't think that RFC can leave that terminus out of the captured mix with 10th Fleet already in Mesa with spies nearby. Seems like a great starting point or included early part of any of the next books, yes?

What Honor knew was that Mike intended to move on Mesa, and should have arrived by the time she spoke to Zilwicki. That is all we know. And she certainly did not tell him "Cachat is safe." She won't know that until someone comes home from Mesa.

What are the Andies doing? not in text. Where are they doing it? not in text. Who are they doing it to? not in text.

If Honor knows any of that at all, it is unlikely that she can discuss it with Zilwicki, as he is not on Emperor Gustav's "needs to know" list. Unfortunately, we apparently aren't on the list either.

And the author(s) didn't bother to specify just who was arriving. Personally, I think it is Mike; but I won't know until the next book. Which is why they did it that way. . . . so RFC can Tum Te Tum a bit at his booksignings.

Rob

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:What Honor knew was that Mike intended to move on Mesa, and should have arrived by the time she spoke to Zilwicki. That is all we know. And she certainly did not tell him "Cachat is safe." She won't know that until someone comes home from Mesa.

What are the Andies doing? not in text. Where are they doing it? not in text. Who are they doing it to? not in text.

If Honor knows any of that at all, it is unlikely that she can discuss it with Zilwicki, as he is not on Emperor Gustav's "needs to know" list. Unfortunately, we apparently aren't on the list either.

And the author(s) didn't bother to specify just who was arriving. Personally, I think it is Mike; but I won't know until the next book. Which is why they did it that way. . . . so RFC can Tum Te Tum a bit at his booksignings.

Rob

I figure 10th Fleet is definitely heading to Mesa and may be there at any time - certainly was expected to have arrived by the time Zilwicki reached Honor. The IAN - could be there before 10th Fleet, could be there after. We're more in the dark with it.

For that matter, the IAN moving directly on Mesa is conjecture. The Andermani may have other Mesan targets - Manpower/Jessyk stations, other planets (outside the League) with Mesan connections, we don't know. Hitting Mesa itself is perfectly likely - I just don't think we've got enough reason to suppose that they are going right there, right now, and nowhere else. The Andermani know a lot more than we do in some ways, and play their cards close to their chest.

I also doubt that what happens on Mesa will differ all that much whether it's 10th Fleet or the IAN arriving. The Mesan government will fold up, investigations will get rolling, and will carry right along if/when the other friendly party shows up.

JeffEngel wrote:
I figure 10th Fleet is definitely heading to Mesa and may be there at any time - certainly was expected to have arrived by the time Zilwicki reached Honor. The IAN - could be there before 10th Fleet, could be there after. We're more in the dark with it.

For that matter, the IAN moving directly on Mesa is conjecture. The Andermani may have other Mesan targets - Manpower/Jessyk stations, other planets (outside the League) with Mesan connections, we don't know. Hitting Mesa itself is perfectly likely - I just don't think we've got enough reason to suppose that they are going right there, right now, and nowhere else. The Andermani know a lot more than we do in some ways, and play their cards close to their chest.

I also doubt that what happens on Mesa will differ all that much whether it's 10th Fleet or the IAN arriving. The Mesan government will fold up, investigations will get rolling, and will carry right along if/when the other friendly party shows up.

<Snipped my old post>
Yes, I agree that the Andies' target selection may be a bit different than what we currently expect.

One factor is the threat to Andermani yards or infrastructure of a spider-based attack--they'll need to keep a lot of stuff at home.

Another factor is the new Silesian Andermani systems; they too will need security, and offer an option for FAK-style MAlign ops, as there are undoubtedly some unhappy people there. In Sarnow's area, also.

While Lyonheart and some others speculate on all out attacks using Andi SDPs along with the GA, I think Gustav is just as likely to look at two things differently.

First, because of current limitations to fleet strength. The Andies had 37 systems prior to the partition of Silesia. We know the Manties got 34 systems; however is was divided, the Andies got a much bigger clump than they expected, possibly almost doubling their size. For them, Silesia is not happening "off-screen."

Second, the fact that Manticore and Haven are both traditional rivals to the Empire, and may return to the earlier role once things settle down a bit. Sure, he's happy with how Silesia worked out; but once they have had it for a few decades, and the minor problem in the Solarian League is resolved, he will have two neighbors that are scarier than the League; even if they don't remain as close as siamese twins later, they will both pose problems in the future that Gustav needs to start thinking about now

YMMV.

Regards, Rob

SharkHunter wrote:Three bits.... who captured Mesa? 10th Fleet.
Why not the Andermani? 10th Fleet got their first.

Here's my logic, totally not calendar based. When Zilwicki arrives back in the Star Kingdom, Honor tells him that Manticore already has word and that Cachat & co are safe, but only the highest echelons in the SEM know about it. I think that precludes time enough for word to go from Mesa back to the Andermani and then to Manticore. Likely the SEM at that point dispatched a courier to the Gregor terminus to get word to Rabenstrange and the IAN to "don't worry about the planet, we got that -- but the true bad guys aren't here anymore".

Visigoth Terminus? captured and "we the reader" haven't heard about it yet, or maybe not quite as of PD1921/current plot points. I don't think that RFC can leave that terminus out of the captured mix with 10th Fleet already in Mesa with spies nearby. Seems like a great starting point or included in the early part of any of the next books, yes?

No, Honor does not say that they have already received word that Cachat is safe. She says that they have received word that Admiral Henke was on her way to Mesa, and according to her schedule she should be at Mesa by now. They have not actually received any word from Mesa, either directly or from the Andermani.

Hi Rob,

A couple nits; the AE should have had 39 systems by 1920 PD, and keeping a lot of stuff to protect their yards against spider drive ships is unlikely to stop or reduce such an attack without being able to identify and track the attackers.

The whole point of moving them out of the SL's line of fire was for them to go take out Mesa.

Given time is of the essence, I suspect the IAN to have prepared quickly then left the empire somewhat obliquely to mask their targeting and travel to Mesa, without using wormholes, since those nearest Mesa would obviously be picketed by the MAlign.

The news we have of CoG is that there were only 12 SD sized footprints which is much less than the 20 SDP's and squadrons or three of CLAC's, NTM ammunition ships etc [bur evidently more SD's than the MAN or its friends has]; so I suspect Mike was again holding back much of her strength again to also strike at the Visigoth wormhole, as well as wait for some to attempt to escape before ringing down the forces blocking them.

Waiting for the details NTM snippets is going to be very hard.

L

Armed Neo-Bob wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:
I figure 10th Fleet is definitely heading to Mesa and may be there at any time - certainly was expected to have arrived by the time Zilwicki reached Honor. The IAN - could be there before 10th Fleet, could be there after. We're more in the dark with it.

For that matter, the IAN moving directly on Mesa is conjecture. The Andermani may have other Mesan targets - Manpower/Jessyk stations, other planets (outside the League) with Mesan connections, we don't know. Hitting Mesa itself is perfectly likely - I just don't think we've got enough reason to suppose that they are going right there, right now, and nowhere else. The Andermani know a lot more than we do in some ways, and play their cards close to their chest.

I also doubt that what happens on Mesa will differ all that much whether it's 10th Fleet or the IAN arriving. The Mesan government will fold up, investigations will get rolling, and will carry right along if/when the other friendly party shows up.

<Snipped my old post>
Yes, I agree that the Andies' target selection may be a bit different than what we currently expect.

One factor is the threat to Andermani yards or infrastructure of a spider-based attack--they'll need to keep a lot of stuff at home.

Another factor is the new Silesian Andermani systems; they too will need security, and offer an option for FAK-style MAlign ops, as there are undoubtedly some unhappy people there. In Sarnow's area, also.

While Lyonheart and some others speculate on all out attacks using Andi SDPs along with the GA, I think Gustav is just as likely to look at two things differently.

First, because of current limitations to fleet strength. The Andies had 37 systems prior to the partition of Silesia. We know the Manties got 34 systems; however is was divided, the Andies got a much bigger clump than they expected, possibly almost doubling their size. For them, Silesia is not happening "off-screen."

Second, the fact that Manticore and Haven are both traditional rivals to the Empire, and may return to the earlier role once things settle down a bit. Sure, he's happy with how Silesia worked out; but once they have had it for a few decades, and the minor problem in the Solarian League is resolved, he will have two neighbors that are scarier than the League; even if they don't remain as close as siamese twins later, they will both pose problems in the future that Gustav needs to start thinking about now

YMMV.

Regards, Rob

lyonheart wrote:The whole point of moving them out of the SL's line of fire was for them to go take out Mesa.

Not quite. The point of moving the Andermani out of the League's line of fire was not for them to take out Mesa, but for them to go after the Alignment. Even at that time, they knew there was a difference. Going after Mesa is a reasonable step in going after the Alignment, but we don't know that the Andermani intended to take that particular step. It is possible they intended to go after the Alignment a different way.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Rob,

A couple nits; the AE should have had 39 systems by 1920 PD, and keeping a lot of stuff to protect their yards against spider drive ships is unlikely to stop or reduce such an attack without being able to identify and track the attackers.

The whole point of moving them out of the SL's line of fire was for them to go take out Mesa.

Given time is of the essence, I suspect the IAN to have prepared quickly then left the empire somewhat obliquely to mask their targeting and travel to Mesa, without using wormholes, since those nearest Mesa would obviously be picketed by the MAlign.

The news we have of CoG is that there were only 12 SD sized footprints which is much less than the 20 SDP's and squadrons or three of CLAC's, NTM ammunition ships etc [bur evidently more SD's than the MAN or its friends has]; so I suspect Mike was again holding back much of her strength again to also strike at the Visigoth wormhole, as well as wait for some to attempt to escape before ringing down the forces blocking them.

Waiting for the details NTM snippets is going to be very hard.

L

Several points here: first, the statement was "...a big hyper footprint - at least a dozen ships of the wall!" That doesn't give me a great deal of confidence that they waited to confirm and ID the ships before reporting to the General Board.

Second, she may well be attacking the wormhole simultaneously; that could be where the rest of the ships went.

Third, she is not going to make a simultaneous attack on Visigoth. Attacking through the wormhole is suicidal. Visigoth is 568 ly away from Mesa in the opposite direction from Meyers; she's not going to hold back attacking Mesa for part of her fleet to go that distance to attack Visigoth.

Does not Storm from the Shadows tell us exactly how many CLAC/SD Henke takes with her??? 2nd to last chapter IIRC.

JohnRoth wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Rob,

A couple nits; the AE should have had 39 systems by 1920 PD, and keeping a lot of stuff to protect their yards against spider drive ships is unlikely to stop or reduce such an attack without being able to identify and track the attackers.

The whole point of moving them out of the SL's line of fire was for them to go take out Mesa.

Given time is of the essence, I suspect the IAN to have prepared quickly then left the empire somewhat obliquely to mask their targeting and travel to Mesa, without using wormholes, since those nearest Mesa would obviously be picketed by the MAlign.

The news we have of CoG is that there were only 12 SD sized footprints which is much less than the 20 SDP's and squadrons or three of CLAC's, NTM ammunition ships etc [bur evidently more SD's than the MAN or its friends has]; so I suspect Mike was again holding back much of her strength again to also strike at the Visigoth wormhole, as well as wait for some to attempt to escape before ringing down the forces blocking them.

Waiting for the details NTM snippets is going to be very hard.

L

Several points here: first, the statement was "...a big hyper footprint - at least a dozen ships of the wall!" That doesn't give me a great deal of confidence that they waited to confirm and ID the ships before reporting to the General Board.

Second, she may well be attacking the wormhole simultaneously; that could be where the rest of the ships went.

Third, she is not going to make a simultaneous attack on Visigoth. Attacking through the wormhole is suicidal. Visigoth is 568 ly away from Mesa in the opposite direction from Meyers; she's not going to hold back attacking Mesa for part of her fleet to go that distance to attack Visigoth.

Additionally, when 10th Fleet invaded Meyers, it didn't come in one lump. Several detachments were left in hyper to pounce upon those attempting to flee the system. Mesa has considerably more traffic than Meyers and would require more ships assigned to this interception role, so whatever numbers the Mesans detected initially almost certainly are fewer than what they face, regardless of that foe being the IAN or 10th Fleet.

Relax wrote:Does not Storm from the Shadows tell us exactly how many CLAC/SD Henke takes with her??? 2nd to last chapter IIRC.

Shadow of Freedom, last chapter. It says that Henke was going to take basically mostly leave her screen in place in the Madras sector other that what she's presumably already dispatched, and use her cruisers on up for something else.

I don't remember if Terekhov et. al are back from Mobius yet, and that's several of the ships, and some of her screen is going to stay behind in Meyers and in the Madras sector while she moves on Mesa. So "a minimum of twelve big hyper signatures" would be about right if they snuck a couple smaller ships such as a Sag-C (such as the HMS Alister McKeon, perhaps?) or two in from WAY out system for a peak at Mesan near space with recon drones, and then bring the big boys in in one fleet manuever. Thoughts?