The Grand Alliance Grand Attack

There is no way to get around the Revanchism issue other than to break the power blocks into smaller entities. This issue will be there for the next several generations.

First off, both issues discussed here in this thread are part of the same GA attack. I have never seen them as separate even though I did not specifically delineate this secondary aspect.

I specifically stated to attack all FF nodal points in previous posts. Go back and read them. I never bothered to go into detail as the number of ships required to do this is small and like the BF nodal points, are all known locations. Number of missiles required to take them out is small. Obviously, it is these FF nodal forces that keep thousand of worlds under the SL's thumb. Must be removed. Never seen me say otherwise.

My main point: If one does not take out the BF SD/BC's, then the core worlds, will remain a MAJOR entity that NO ONE can stand up to in the long run, or secede from. No fracturing = bad news. Gotta remember the core worlds are all in on the same racket. Suck the shell/protectorates dry. They by and large are not going to fracture. If one gets rid of all SLN core world controlled SD/BC, that now allows succession possibility. Now the successor can throw a quick defense together to defend against the left over small fry. Maybe some outside help from our heros? On the other hand, no one can do any seceding with a gun pointed at their head. The only words heard are, "Yes sir, how high shall I jump Sir?! May I lick your boots Sir!"

Must remove the GUN.

To fracture the core worlds, their power structure must be eliminated. Politics/economics will take care of the SL bureaucracy power structure along with the limp kneed SL Constitution. But if the SLN remains a major fighting force, even the core worlds who do wish to secede/fracture the core into smaller power blocks able to be dealt with by our heroes, cannot do so. More importantly, if our heroes, the GA, wish to help these successor states fracture the SL core, will now require massive numbers of pods to protect these worlds from those SD's and BC's. Why? Their honor is now on the line. If all those SD/BC's are gone, the amount of pods/defense "loaned" to these seceding worlds, is vastly smaller. This becomes a Massive boon when one considers there are thousands of potential worlds who may need a "loan".

Weird Harold wrote:The Commerce raiding portion of Lacoon II and the concurrent commerce protection from SLN Raiding is the plan as hinted at in textev for fragmenting and peeling away sectors and systems.

The kind of major attacks with heavy task forces espoused by Relax is exactly the kind of strategy that will engender revanchism and long-term strategies of revenge on the GA.

In the immediate future, Frontier Fleet is going to be the source of resistance and conflict. Taking out Frontier Fleet bases and liberating protectorates (a la Meyers and the Madras sector) in conjunction with maximal disruption of trade to Solarian League systems (and protection of non-league systems' trade) is going to cut the SLN's purse strings and encourage the systems with the least tradition of being "Solarian" to secede.

Mandarin/SLN attempts to block secessions and reclaim protectorates and shell systems will encourage others to abandon the league in protest.

In short, the "small ship war" is going to be the primary line of attack with Wallers only really involved in taking sector headquarters and (non-league) hard targets like Yildin.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:There are two discussions going on here, Harold. One is the one that Relax was addressing which is how you attack the League itself with intent of fragmenting the League by peeling away systems and sectors. That discussion has the League on defense.

The other discussion has to do more with what you are addressing with commerce protection where the League attempts to go on offense. That was more my focus when I expressed my concern about a shortage of light hulls.

The Commerce raiding portion of Lacoon II and the concurrent commerce protection from SLN Raiding is the plan as hinted at in textev for fragmenting and peeling away sectors and systems.

The kind of major attacks with heavy task forces espoused by Relax is exactly the kind of strategy that will engender revanchism and long-term strategies of revenge on the GA.

In the immediate future, Frontier Fleet is going to be the source of resistance and conflict. Taking out Frontier Fleet bases and liberating protectorates (a la Meyers and the Madras sector) in conjunction with maximal disruption of trade to Solarian League systems (and protection of non-league systems' trade) is going to cut the SLN's purse strings and encourage the systems with the least tradition of being "Solarian" to secede.

Mandarin/SLN attempts to block secessions and reclaim protectorates and shell systems will encourage others to abandon the league in protest.

In short, the "small ship war" is going to be the primary line of attack with Wallers only really involved in taking sector headquarters and (non-league) hard targets like Yildin.

Reducing the League's ability to wage war and to coerce its members are the two primary objectives. I don't think that can be accomplished without going after military targets in the core with task forces big enough to take them out. I can see avoiding damage to civilian infrastructure. But both Frontier Fleet and Battle Fleet need to be removed from the equation. In fact I can see an attack on Mars to eliminate the SLN fleet base with its huge numbers of SDs.

As for people getting upset by that, I don't think it would be as bad as you seem to be suggesting. An attack on earth itself has to be avoided. But as for the rest, just go after the military targets and allow the core world governments to draw the inevtiable conclusion that the League is no longer good for business, cannot protect them, and cannot force them to remain members.

Don

Relax wrote:There is no way to get around the Revanchism issue other than to break the power blocks into smaller entities. This issue will be there for the next several generations.

The Harrington Doctrine was proposed as a way to resolve the revanchism issue. As Hamish commented (quoted Lincoln, actually,)"I destroy my enemy by making him my friend." There is a difference in perception if the SLN is destroyed defending a would-be secessionist system from attempts by the SLN to force a return, and moving in with overwhelming force to preemptively destroy the SLN. The League has to be exposed as a bully before the SLN is destroyed.

Relax wrote:First off, both issues discussed here in this thread are part of the same GA attack. I have never seen them as separate even though I did not specifically delineate this secondary aspect.

Where we differ is in which aspect is the secondary aspect.

Relax wrote:Gotta remember the core worlds are all in on the same racket. Suck the shell/protectorates dry. They by and large are not going to fracture. If one gets rid of all SLN core world controlled SD/BC, that now allows succession possibility. ...

Must remove the GUN.

Not all of the Core worlds; Beowulf is the first to secede and the SLN attack on Beowulf is going to establish the precedent of the SLN attempting to force a reversal of an honest plebiscite to secede. That's going to be step one of exposing the Mandarins and SLN as bullies.

The Renaissance Factor is primed to follow Beowulf's example, giving the Core twelve more examples to follow, without GA involvement; the RF apparently has sufficient SDF capability to hold off the SLN on their own.

Relax wrote:To fracture the core worlds, their power structure must be eliminated. Politics/economics will take care of the SL bureaucracy power structure along with the limp kneed SL Constitution. But if the SLN remains a major fighting force, even the core worlds who do wish to secede/fracture the core into smaller power blocks able to be dealt with by our heroes, cannot do so.

The SLN does need to be destroyed, but how it is destroyed (and where)is going to be critical to future perception of the GA as liberators or conquerors. If the SLN is largely destroyed defending systems like Beowulf and the RF from SLN aggression the destroyers are going to be seen as white hats.

If the GA goes after BF bases in the core before the perception of the SLN as the Mandarins' Goon Squad, they're going to be seen as Black Hats and the fracture lines are going to pull together and the dissolution of the League will be prolonged.

Relax wrote:More importantly, if our heroes, the GA, wish to help these successor states fracture the SL core, will now require massive numbers of pods to protect these worlds from those SD's and BC's. Why? Their honor is now on the line. If all those SD/BC's are gone, the amount of pods/defense "loaned" to these seceding worlds, is vastly smaller. This becomes a Massive boon when one considers there are thousands of potential worlds who may need a "loan".

A very valid concern. The SEM currently doesn't have the manufacturing capacity to support such a massive boon to the Core Worlds -- if they can convince Core worlds to accept such largess in the first place.

Fortunately, Beowulf does have the manufacturing capability to gin up production lines for Apollo System Defense missiles or some lesser System Defense Missile capable of dealing with an SLN task Force. More importantly, Beowulf has standing as a former Core world attacked by the SLN in violation of the SL Constitution.

Every Protectorate and Shell system liberated by the GA becomes another diplomatic voice assigning blame to the Mandarins and SLN and praising the GA as saviors. As worlds closer to the Core secede, they add to the trading, manufacturing, and mutual defense capabilities of the GA; enabling the GA or proxies to extend protection from SLN reprisals against the next layer of secessions.

With Beowulf, the Renaissance Factor, and a growing list of former SL systems advocating secession and offering protection from the SLN, the Core worlds will be able to secede and more importantly be able to see the SLN as oppressor instead of protector.

Weird Harold wrote:

Relax wrote:There is no way to get around the Revanchism issue other than to break the power blocks into smaller entities. This issue will be there for the next several generations.

The Harrington Doctrine was proposed as a way to resolve the revanchism issue. As Hamish commented (quoted Lincoln, actually,)"I destroy my enemy by making him my friend." There is a difference in perception if the SLN is destroyed defending a would-be secessionist system from attempts by the SLN to force a return, and moving in with overwhelming force to preemptively destroy the SLN. The League has to be exposed as a bully before the SLN is destroyed.

Relax wrote:First off, both issues discussed here in this thread are part of the same GA attack. I have never seen them as separate even though I did not specifically delineate this secondary aspect.

Where we differ is in which aspect is the secondary aspect.

While I happen to agree with the first part in regards to timing, the second part I do not agree with. The reason is thus: The arrogant snot nosed SL aristocracy who obtains their obscene wealth through the servitude of the protectorates will see any infringement upon the protectorates as a direct assault against them. They are ultimately those who are in charge of the SL bureaucrats who are ultimately in charge of the SLN.

Why? There is no democratically elected government. All insider trading and string pulling for political power. The "people" have no voice in the SL. The "people" when viewed through the lens of history ultimately are those who are nationalists. Aristocracy are generally not. Rather care about power. Nationalists by and large are revanchist. Or stirred to a revanchinist thought patterns via PR. Locally some planets do, but as a whole? No.

The Core aristocracy by and large only cares about their own power and influence. Their bowl of rice. Only a rare few have their fingers tied to the SLN bowl of rice whereas a HUGE number of them have their pocket books tied directly to the protectorates. Taking out the SLN and its associated building yards is a pinprick to the SL core worlds Aristocracy. Smashing FF, freeing the protectorates is a club upside the head.

Infringement upon the SL protectorates has already happened. Michelle Henke has already moved. The bloody flag is already stained. The ship sailed already. SEM forces have already taken SL controlled territory in the form of the protectorates and wormhole junctions.

Revanchinist SL already exists.

May as well smash the SLN as a fighting force before revanchinist support and policies are implemented as the PR from the Aristocracy, reading the writing on the wall are drumming up SL nationalist "pride" via PR. Their tool? The SLN.

Without the SLN for the Aristocracy to swing around, they have to think more about reaching a hand out and dialogue before swinging a hammer via pure spinal reflex.

I don't think we have any hard numbers on the mix and capability of the individual RF systems SDFs but I don't think they can individually or even collectively now take on the SLN.

What they do provide is their own local defence and probably the ability to help some their (individually) close neighbors or trade partners defend against local instability as the SL engages with GA and goes through the process of falling apart.

I think that, in their own ways, the RF systems are going to go through a verson of what Maya is doing. The difference is primarily that each RF system has (presumed to have, we really only have seen one) its own SDF instead of being dependent on SLN or coerced by threat of FF. They are more likely to wait and ride out the SL breakup before acting. The exception would be where an existing trade partner or a near neighbor (and future target) began to have problems realted to the breakup and a single furture RF member would step in to "help".

Remember, these systems need to survive the break up in order to become the core of a succesor state or at least one of the successor states. They are going to stay out of active fighting if possible and fall somewhere in the middle of the time frame of breaking from or just staying out of the League conflicts.

Relax wrote:Why? There is no democratically elected government. All insider trading and string pulling for political power. The "people" have no voice in the SL. The "people" when viewed through the lens of history ultimately are those who are nationalists. Aristocracy are generally not. Rather care about power. Nationalists by and large are revanchist. Or stirred to a revanchinist thought patterns via PR. Locally some planets do, but as a whole? No.

The League government is irrelevant when it comes to secession. True there is no elected League government, but the same is NOT true of the individual League Members -- soon to become Independent Successor States -- and it is those individual member states that have to make the choice of secession or supporting the league against all comers.

The Transstellars and "Aristocracy" will go with the money; when they demand the SLN "Do Something" about the loss of Protectorates they will expose both the SLN's ineffectiveness and their own disregard for fellow member states' independence. They will also feed the SLN into the meat-grinder for destruction.

At some point, the Transtellars are going to realize that their best bet for survival in any form is the GA's free trade zone rather than riding the League into complete chaos.

The Aristocracy may follow New Tuscany's example or they may follow Tonkavic's, but riding the League into dissolution isn't going to be a viable option.

The Solarian League isn't a homogenous population, it is 1700+ distinct societies; Each and Every One is out for "what's in it for us?" at the expense of the other 1699+ systems. That's why there are existing "fracture lines" for the GA (and MAlign) to exploit. The GA won't be the only lever prying those fracture lines open, the MAlign, the Renaissance Factor, and individual systems with a grudge are all going to be placing demands on the League and SLN that can't be met.

OFS sector governors are going to follow Maya's example and take big chunks of the Verge and Protectorates out of the League -- along with their fees and kick-backs that pay for the SLN.

The one thing the GA can't afford is to be perceived as the aggressor and close any of those "fracture lines."

Brigade XO wrote:I don't think we have any hard numbers on the mix and capability of the individual RF systems SDFs but I don't think they can individually or even collectively now take on the SLN.

What they do provide is their own local defense and probably the ability to help some their (individually) close neighbors or trade partners defend against local instability as the SL engages with GA and goes through the process of falling apart.
...

No, we don't have hard numbers of the MAN/RF Navy, but we do have isolated hints that Manticore is in for a nasty surprise -- and by extension, the SLN will be in for an even nastier surprise.

The RF doesn't need to "take on" the SLN, it only needs to defend against SLN attacks -- attacks which will come when RF members secede. Given the SLN's record of threat assessment those attacks will be totally inadequate against any one system's SDF, let alone the combined SDFs of two or more RF systems.

It is very unlikely that anything even as big as Crandall's TF will be sent against the RF, at least not initially, and by the time the SLN realizes a bigger force is needed, they won't have a bigger force to send because of all the other places they need to send bigger forces to avenge losses due to underestimation and/or encounters with the GA.

Weird Harold wrote:OFS sector governors are going to follow Maya's example and take big chunks of the Verge and Protectorates out of the League -- along with their fees and kick-backs that pay for the SLN.

For that matter, some of those "Maya Model" sectors are going to take chunks of Frontier Fleet with them. They may even take chunks of Battle Fleet that are assigned out there, though that's complicated both by the thin at best relations between the Frontier sorts and BF, and the strictly limited quantities of Battle Fleet out there.

Mind you, none of them are as prepared as Barregos and Rozsak, and probably few if any of them are remotely as interested in the welfare of their sectors. But when they see the way the wind is blowing, and/or their transtellar patrons write off the Solarian League and want to invest patronage in a different political entity - they'll be in a position to peel off the League. For that matter, the GA will be encouraging the peeling off, though they may not have much patience for keeping the existing administrations.

Of course, if your sector is about to be taken by the GA, you may find yourself with a sudden fervent interest in the rule of law and improving the lot of the people under your care, just so you can retain power (even if reduced) under the new regime. I'm sure no small number of system governments in Silesia and Talbott experienced that kind of pragmatic reform.

I also have to wonder if there aren't one or two Battle Fleet admirals who - again in compliance with their business patrons - who may not care to carry out orders from Old Chicago that run counter to their understanding of the League Constitution, who would then put their fleets in the service of a "rebel" League system. I'm sure genuinely loyalty to the League's written constitution has to be vanishingly rare, but it'd be at least a useful figleaf when someone's bread is buttered on a rebel side.

JeffEngel wrote:snip

I also have to wonder if there aren't one or two Battle Fleet admirals who - again in compliance with their business patrons - who may not care to carry out orders from Old Chicago that run counter to their understanding of the League Constitution, who would then put their fleets in the service of a "rebel" League system. I'm sure genuinely loyalty to the League's written constitution has to be vanishingly rare, but it'd be at least a useful figleaf when someone's bread is buttered on a rebel side.

In point of fact, given the centuries long basis for the MAlign master plan, it would not surprise me to find that a number of senior BF (and FF) commanders are actually members of the MAlign, ala Hanrahan. Of course when things start to go to hell in a handbasket, they will "reluctantly" decide that their greater duty to mankind is to withdraw to one of the RF member states.

JeffEngel wrote:I also have to wonder if there aren't one or two Battle Fleet admirals who - again in compliance with their business patrons - who may not care to carry out orders from Old Chicago that run counter to their understanding of the League Constitution, who would then put their fleets in the service of a "rebel" League system. I'm sure genuinely loyalty to the League's written constitution has to be vanishingly rare, but it'd be at least a useful figleaf when someone's bread is buttered on a rebel side.

I'm sure there are going to be one or two SLN commanders
who are going to decide being a warlord someplace far away has a better life-expectancy than following orders from anyone.